China
Lutnick says U.S. tariff levels on China won't change. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the 55% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods will remain in place following the completion of a new trade deal. President Donald Trump declared the agreement “done” hours after negotiators reached a framework to stabilize trade ties. China has committed to removing export restrictions on rare earths and exploring additional trade opportunities with the U.S. Bhargav Acharya, Reuters, June 11
Top U.S. envoy in Hong Kong may be headed for senior role in Beijing embassy. Gregory May, the U.S. consul general in Hong Kong and Macau, is expected to take a senior post at the embassy in Beijing as diplomatic tensions continue. May, a Mandarin speaker with experience in mainland China and Taiwan, has played a prominent role in recent high-level meetings with Chinese officials and is viewed as a strategic asset by Washington. Ji Siqi, South China Morning Post, June 11
Japan
Japan urges China to prevent recurrence after midair near miss. Japan demanded China take steps to avoid future incidents after a Chinese J-15 fighter jet flew within 45 meters of a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force P-3C patrol plane over international waters in the Pacific. The aircraft reportedly passed dangerously close again the next day. Japanese officials conveyed strong concerns through diplomatic and defense channels. Kyodo News, June 12
Japan deepens ties with Guatemala, a pro-Taiwan ally. Japan elevated its relationship with Guatemala to a strategic partnership during a summit between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and President Bernardo Arevalo in Tokyo. The move aims to reinforce ties with nations that maintain diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, as China expands influence in Latin America. Guatemala and Paraguay account for the majority of economic output and population among Taiwan’s remaining allies. Nen Satomi, The Asahi Shimbun, June 11
South Korea
Presidential office asks recommendations of special prosecutors for probes into ex-President Yoon, his wife. The presidential office has requested political parties to nominate special counsel candidates to investigate former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s alleged martial law attempt, corruption accusations involving his wife Kim Keon Hee, and the death of a Marine. The special counsel legislation, recently enacted, mandates investigations into 11 charges including insurrection and military mutiny. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, June 12
Ex-President Yoon snubs 2nd summons for police questioning in martial law probe. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol failed to appear for a scheduled police questioning for the second time over allegations tied to his failed martial law declaration. He faces charges of obstructing a detention warrant and ordering the deletion of secure communication records. His lawyer argued the summons was legally unfounded. Police will consider next steps based on current evidence. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, June 12
North Korea
North Korea appears to have stopped loudspeakers blasting noise, Seoul says. North Korea has halted its loudspeaker broadcasts near the border targeting South Korea, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff. No broadcasts were detected Thursday, though the South remains vigilant. Seoul suspended its own broadcasts a day earlier under President Lee Jae-myung’s directive to ease tensions. Residents near the demilitarized zone had voiced complaints over the noise. Hyunsu Yim, Reuters, June 11
Trump is receptive to contacts with North Korean leader, White House says. President Donald Trump remains open to communicating with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, according to the White House, following prior summits and exchanged letters during Trump’s first term. North Korea has reportedly refused to accept a recent letter from Trump. Despite efforts to rekindle dialogue, the North has expanded its nuclear and missile programs while deepening ties with Russia. Nandita Bose, Steve Holland, David Brunnstrom and Josh Smith, Reuters, June 11
North Korea will always stand with Russia, leader Kim tells Putin. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reaffirmed unwavering support for Russia in a message to President Vladimir Putin marking Russia Day, calling their bond a “genuine relationship between comrades-in-arms.” Kim emphasized the unshakable resolve of both himself and the North Korean government to deepen ties with Moscow. Pyongyang previously confirmed it had sent troops to support Russia in Ukraine. Hyunsu Yim, Reuters, June 11
India
Thailand
Thaksin will not attend Supreme Court hearing on Friday. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will not attend a June 13 Supreme Court hearing reviewing whether his stay at Police General Hospital counted as time served for his prison sentence. His lawyer said he had not been summoned. Thaksin's legal team will attend to present clarifications. The court began its inquiry following public and political criticism over his early parole and hospital stay. Bangkok Post, June 11
Myanmar
China-backed militia secures control of new rare earth mines in Myanmar. Chinese-linked miners under the protection of the United Wa State Army have opened new rare earth operations in Myanmar’s Shan state, extracting critical minerals like dysprosium and terbium using environmentally harmful leaching methods. The operations are staffed by Chinese-speaking personnel and connected to Chinese supply chains, reinforcing Beijing’s strategic hold on rare earth resources amid rising global trade tensions. Naw Han, Shoon Naing, Devjyot Ghoshal, Eleanor Whalley and Napat Wesshasartar, Reuters, June 12
Junta greenlights Rakhine Nationalities Party as opposition parties boycott elections. Myanmar’s junta has approved the formation of the Rakhine Nationalities Party, led by former lawmaker Ba Shein, amid an election boycott by major opposition groups. The new party must register with the junta-controlled Union Election Commission within 30 days. Parties like the NLD and SNLD refuse to participate in elections under military oversight following the 2021 coup. Htun Aung, Myanmar Now, June 11
Philippines
Prosecutors in Philippine VP's impeachment say trial must proceed. Prosecutors argued the impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte is lawful and must advance, despite the Senate returning it to the House for certification. The move sparked criticism from legal and church leaders, who accused senators of avoiding responsibility. Duterte, who denies all allegations, faces charges including budget misuse and threats against officials. Karen Lema, Mikhail Flores and Lisa David, Reuters, June 11
ICC junks Duterte's 2nd attempt to oust judges. The International Criminal Court unanimously denied former president Rodrigo Duterte’s second bid to disqualify Judges Reine Adélaïde Sophie Alapini Gansou and María del Socorro Flores Liera from Pretrial Chamber 1, citing no grounds of bias. Duterte remains detained in the Netherlands for crimes against humanity tied to his drug war. Despite this, he was reelected Davao City mayor alongside his son as vice mayor. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, June 12
Indonesia
Turkey to export 48 of its nationally produced fighter jets to Indonesia. Turkey will export 48 KAAN fighter jets to Indonesia in its first overseas deal for the aircraft, which is still under development. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the agreement during the Indo Defence 2025 expo in Jakarta, stating the jets will be built in Turkey with contributions from Indonesia’s domestic industry. Associated Press, June 11
Malaysia
Singapore
Taiwan
Former Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou to return to mainland China despite warnings. Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou will lead a delegation of students to mainland China from June 15 to 27, visiting Xiamen for the Straits Forum and Gansu for a cultural ceremony. Despite opposition from Taiwan’s government, which criticized the trip as inappropriate and politically risky, Ma’s foundation emphasized the importance of stable cross-strait relations. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, June 11
Taiwan cyber unit says it will not be intimidated by China bounty offer. Taiwan’s defense ministry rejected China’s move to offer bounties for the arrest of 20 alleged Taiwanese military hackers, stating Beijing’s laws have no legal effect on the island. The cyber unit accused China of using fabricated incidents to spread misinformation and undermine morale. It vowed to continue protecting national security against hacking threats and information warfare. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, June 12
Kazakhstan
Kazakh Parliament approves draft law on amnesty marking 30 years of Constitution. Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis passed a draft law granting amnesty to individuals convicted of non-severe crimes in honor of the Constitution’s 30th anniversary. The measure includes minor and medium-severity offenses, especially for socially vulnerable groups, and permits partial sentence reductions where restitution was made. Serious and corruption-related crimes are excluded. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, June 12
Turkmenistan
Ashgabat fires back at U.S. partial travel ban on Turkmen citizens. Turkmenistan’s Foreign Ministry denounced a new partial travel ban imposed by the United States as a source of serious concern and misunderstanding, criticizing Washington for geopolitical shortsightedness. The ministry argued that the decision overlooks Turkmenistan’s law-abiding travelers and its growing strategic role in trade through the Caspian Basin. Eurasianet, June 11
Northeast Asia
The EU Sees Early Successes in Using Foreign Subsidy Regulation Against Chinese Companies. The European Union’s Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR), enacted in 2023, has begun producing tangible outcomes as Brussels uses it to challenge state-supported Chinese firms operating in the EU’s single market. The regulation requires companies to report foreign financial contributions during mergers, acquisitions, or public bids and grants the European Commission authority to investigate and penalize violations. Early actions under the FSR include halting a railway tender bid by CRRC Qingdao, probing Chinese wind turbine providers, inspecting Nuctech offices, and launching an inquiry into BYD’s electric vehicle subsidies. These measures show growing EU resolve to counter economic distortions and assert market sovereignty, particularly over concerns about Chinese overcapacity and unfair competition. Beijing’s pushback, including formal objections and accusations of bias, suggests the regulation is beginning to have its intended impact. Nonetheless, without deeper EU-level industrial policy integration, current efforts may fall short of matching the effectiveness of China’s centralized and protectionist economic strategy. Andreas Mischer, MERICS, June 11
Chinese Innovation Can Help Lead the World to a Greener Future. As U.S. climate leadership retreats, China emerges as a pivotal force in advancing global clean technology. With deep industrial capacity and a proven track record in scaling lab-stage technologies, such as solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, China is well-positioned to accelerate the global green transition. While mature sectors dominated over 90 percent of 2024’s US$2 trillion in clean energy investments, breakthrough technologies like green hydrogen and long-duration energy storage remain underfunded. China’s economic restructuring, spurred by stagnation in traditional sectors, is prioritizing high-tech, low-carbon industries, with the ‘new three’: solar, EVs, and batteries outpacing national growth rates. Yet, to sustain momentum, innovation must move beyond saturated markets. International collaboration is key; China's rise in cleantech was fueled by global partnerships, and further cooperation can bridge the 'innovation valley of death' and lower deployment costs. As geopolitical tensions threaten collective action, China has an opportunity to champion pragmatic, cross-border cooperation in cleantech development. This collaborative model offers a path to shared prosperity and accelerated climate action, positioning China not just as a participant but as a leader in shaping a sustainable global future. Muyi Yang, East Asia Forum, June 12
China’s Global AI Firewall. China’s leading open-source AI model, DeepSeek’s R1-0528, shows a growing alignment between technical innovation and state-directed political compliance. While the original R1 model subtly downplayed politically sensitive topics, the updated R1-0528 consistently issues scripted, government-aligned responses on issues such as the South China Sea, Tibet, and the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership. A study by SpeechMap.ai found that R1-0528 offers evasive or denial-based answers to 98 percent of sensitive queries in Chinese, sharply up from earlier versions. Though the model is technically advanced and increasingly adopted globally for free, its embedded political constraints may subtly influence international perceptions of China. These constraints are less visible in English queries, but still present in discussions of territorial disputes. As DeepSeek gains favor with Chinese authorities and widespread government adoption, tighter controls are likely to persist. This duality, high technical value and high ideological filtering raises questions about how global developers and users will respond. If widespread use of such AI tools continues, it could result in a stratified information environment, reinforcing China’s influence through algorithmic narratives while sidestepping overt censorship debates. Alex Colville, China Media Project, June 12
Will the World Favour China as the US Loses Credibility? At the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth adopted an aggressively confrontational stance on China, diverging sharply from the previous administration’s tone. Unlike his predecessor Lloyd Austin, who spoke on diplomacy and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Hegseth’s speech centered entirely on the "China threat" theory, explicitly promising military intervention over Taiwan. However, this assertive rhetoric clashes with President Donald Trump’s continued adherence to strategic ambiguity, revealing internal inconsistencies that weaken the U.S.'s credibility. Many countries are reluctant to support what is viewed as a contradictory and self-interested U.S. foreign policy, with even Taiwan and South Korea showing signs of cautious disengagement. The relocation of U.S. forces from the first to the second island chain, seen by Beijing as a strategic retreat, reflects waning deterrence capacity. In contrast, China’s low-key presence at the summit and tempered responses may indicate a deliberate effort to avoid polarizing other nations. This softer approach could enable Beijing to deepen ties with countries disillusioned by America’s unilateralism. In a world wary of hardline posturing and ideological rigidity, China may gain favor by positioning itself as a more stable, pragmatic, and less coercive alternative. Qi Dongtao, ThinkChina, June 11
Southeast Asia
ASEAN Vision 2045: What Does It Hold for Our Shared Future? ASEAN Vision 2045, adopted at the 46th ASEAN Summit, outlines a long-term strategy to address regional megatrends such as geopolitical rivalry, trade wars, AI disruption, aging populations, and social fragmentation. Developed under the High-Level Task Force (HLTF), the vision encompasses four strategic plans across the Political-Security, Economic, Socio-Cultural, and Connectivity pillars, emphasizing integration, resilience, and inclusivity. The vision aims to ensure ASEAN Centrality by aligning regional strategies with ASEAN’s norms and outlook, particularly on the Indo-Pacific. It introduces periodic reviews for adaptability and includes a comprehensive framework to monitor implementation. While some proposals, like revising the ASEAN Charter, faced resistance, a consensus was reached on enhancing institutional capacity and decision-making in emergencies. The Economic pillar targets a single market and green economy, while the Socio-Cultural agenda promotes inclusivity and cohesion. Connectivity goals focus on infrastructure, digital innovation, and logistics. With the Philippines set to chair ASEAN in 2026, expectations are high for effectively launching Vision 2045's action plans and engaging stakeholders. Realizing the vision hinges on sustained institutional coordination and outreach to ensure ASEAN remains a driving force in global cooperation. Elizabeth Buensuceso, FULCRUM, June 12
Rightsizing the Risks of China’s Export Redirection to Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia faces heightened concerns over a potential influx of redirected Chinese exports following U.S. tariffs under “Liberation Day” measures. While the WTO forecasts a 6 percent increase in Chinese goods exports to Asia, most Chinese imports to ASEAN, 74.2 percent between 2019–2022, are capital and intermediate goods essential for production and competitiveness. The region’s rising trade deficit with China is offset by surpluses with the rest of the world, indicating a broader positive trade dynamic. Imported Chinese components support ASEAN’s exports in sectors like solar, EVs, and electronics. Additionally, Chinese greenfield FDI is fueling industrial development, though early-stage production still relies on imports. ASEAN’s growing services trade surplus with China, especially in tourism and digital services, also helps balance the trade equation. Protectionist reactions, such as Indonesia’s proposed tariffs of up to 200 percent, risk undermining long-term competitiveness. Instead, strategic use of trade frameworks (WTO, RCEP, ASEAN–China FTA 3.0), local value chain development, and reduced reliance on NTMs are advised. A calibrated, data-driven approach is essential to avoid reactionary policies and harness the benefits of Chinese trade redirection while mitigating its risks.
Maria Monica Wihardja and Aufa Doarest, FULCRUM, June 11
South Asia
Redrawing the Map of Power in the Indian Ocean. The April 2025 trilateral agreement between India, Sri Lanka, and the United Arab Emirates to develop an energy hub in Trincomalee marks a change in Indian Ocean geopolitics. Centered on one of the world’s most strategically located natural harbors, the project aims to upgrade oil infrastructure, establish a bi-directional pipeline, and integrate regional energy logistics. Combining India’s technical capacity, the UAE’s capital, and Sri Lanka’s geographic advantage, the venture offers a multilateral counterbalance to China’s expanding presence, including its US$3.7 billion Sinopec project in Hambantota. The Trincomalee initiative focuses on cooperative governance, safeguards Sri Lankan sovereignty, and supports energy security while aligning with broader economic recovery efforts and clean energy goals. Nonetheless, domestic concerns in Sri Lanka over potential Indian dominance, financial uncertainties, and environmental challenges could affect implementation. The project’s success will hinge on transparent governance, stakeholder inclusion, and sustainable planning. If realized, it could set a precedent for equitable regional collaboration and offer a replicable alternative to unilateral infrastructure models, reinforcing smaller nations’ agency amid intensifying big-power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. Manish Vaid, East Asia Forum, June 11