Asia Daily: June 11, 2025
China
China, U.S. top negotiators agree to ‘framework’ that will need approvals by Xi and Trump. China and the United States concluded trade talks in London with a provisional framework requiring approval from Presidents Xi and Trump. The framework builds on a prior consensus reached in Geneva, aiming to ease tensions and advance economic cooperation. Rare earths, tariff rollbacks, and supply chain issues were key topics. China issued rare earth export licenses, while U.S. officials sought to secure alternative mineral sources. Liu Zhen, Bochen Han and Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, June 10
Japan
LDP, Komeito revive plan for cash handouts as election nears. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito have revived a plan to distribute cash handouts ahead of next month’s Upper House election, favoring them over opposition-backed tax cuts. The benefits may be delivered via cash or the My Number-linked Myna Point system and funded by surplus 2024 tax revenues. The Asahi Shimbun, June 10
South Korea
South Korea appoints ex-trade chief Yeo Han-koo as new trade minister. Former trade envoy Yeo Han-koo has been appointed as South Korea’s new trade minister as the country prepares for negotiations with Washington over suspended tariffs. President Lee Jae-myung also named statistics chief Lee Hyoung-il as acting first vice finance minister. The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on South Korean goods in April, and reducing them is a top priority amid pressure on major export sectors. Jack Kim, Cynthia Kim and Hyunjoo Jin, Reuters, June 10
Lee appoints vice ministers of finance, foreign affairs, chief trade negotiator. President Lee Jae-myung appointed six senior officials, including Lee Hyoung-il and Lim Ki-keun as first and second vice finance ministers, and Yeo Han-koo as chief trade negotiator. Park Yoon-joo and Kim Jina were named as vice foreign ministers, and Moon Shin-hak as vice industry minister. The appointments aim to tackle economic challenges and prepare for Lee’s G7 summit debut. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, June 10
North Korea
N. Korea plans to send 28,000 more workers overseas, mostly to Russia. North Korea is preparing to send up to 28,000 workers abroad, with Russia expected to receive over 24,000 as part of efforts to generate foreign currency. The plan includes dispatches to over 10 countries, bypassing sanctions through political backing from Russia and China. Selection favors skilled laborers and excludes families of defectors, with bribes influencing placements. Lee Sang Yong and Hwang Hyun-uk, Daily NK, June 10
N. Korea says U.S. entry ban not a matter of interest over its omission from list. North Korea dismissed the significance of being excluded from a recent U.S. travel ban targeting 12 countries, saying it has no interest in entering the United States. The Korean Central News Agency said the omission could be part of a political tactic but stressed Pyongyang would assess Washington only through its own judgment. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, June 10
Myanmar
U.N. envoy to Myanmar warns that violence puts country on 'path to self-destruction'. U.N. envoy Julie Bishop warned the General Assembly that Myanmar risks collapse if escalating violence continues. Despite a deadly earthquake in March killing over 3,000, fighting has intensified, worsening humanitarian conditions. Bishop highlighted widespread displacement, weapon inflows, and the exclusionary nature of planned elections. Edith M. Lederer, Associated Press, June 10
Myanmar junta fighter jet shot down in Sagaing battle: PLA. Myanmar’s People’s Liberation Army claimed responsibility for downing a junta fighter jet during clashes over the Kan Dauk police station in Sagaing Region’s Pale Township. Resistance forces reportedly used a 0.50-caliber machine gun to bring down the jet, which crashed and exploded. The military blamed engine failure. It is the 10th junta aircraft that resistance forces have destroyed since 2021. The Irrawaddy, June 10
Cambodia
Cambodia forms committee to take Thailand border dispute to the ICJ. Cambodia has established a high-level committee to file a case at the International Court of Justice over disputed areas near the Thai border, including the Mom Bei region and Ta Moan Thom, Ta Moan Tauch, and Ta Krabei temples. The committee, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Prak Sokhonn, will represent Cambodia throughout the ICJ process. Misinformation has escalated tensions, with both sides confronting false reports and inflammatory content. Taing Rinith, Khmer Times, June 10
Philippines
OVP receives Senate summons for Sara to answer articles of impeachment. The Office of the Vice President confirmed receipt of a Senate summons directing Vice President Sara Duterte to respond to eight articles of impeachment, including charges of bribery, corruption, high crimes and betrayal of public trust. The summons was issued even after the Senate sent the case back to the House without formally dismissing it. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, June 11
Indonesia
State secretary denies Cabinet reshuffle rumors. State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi rejected speculation that President Prabowo Subianto plans to reshuffle his Cabinet, stating there are no such intentions either now or later in the year. He emphasized that ministries remain focused on fulfilling Prabowo’s policy vision and denied claims of possible changes in November. The only prior reshuffle occurred in February when the higher education minister was replaced. Ichsna Ali, Jakarta Globe, June 11
Taiwan
Taiwan indicts four suspected spies for China in case reaching presidential office. Four individuals, all former members of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, have been indicted for espionage and leaking classified national security information to China. Among them are a former presidential office adviser and a former assistant to then-foreign minister Joseph Wu. Prosecutors are seeking prison terms of over 18 years. The presidential office stated that betrayers of national interest should face maximum penalties. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, June 10
Chinese carriers in Pacific show country's 'expansionist' aims, Taiwan says. Taiwan’s defense minister said the simultaneous presence of China’s Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers in the Pacific signals Beijing’s expansionist intent. The carriers crossed the first island chain and entered the second, a move viewed as politically charged. Japan confirmed both carriers operated near its southern islands, prompting regional unease. China labeled the drills routine and not aimed at any nation. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, June 11
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan inaugurates major container hub at Aktau port. Kazakhstan launched the largest container hub on the Caspian Sea at Aktau port, developed by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy in partnership with China’s Lianyungang port and the Aktau International Sea Trade Port. Constructed by China Communications Construction Company, the hub strengthens Kazakhstan’s role in global transit corridors. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, June 10
Kazakhstan to provide 99% of rural areas with internet by 2027. Kazakhstan plans to connect 99% of rural settlements to high-speed internet by 2027 through a project led by the Ministry of Digital Development and Kazakhtelecom. Over 3,000 villages will gain access via fiber-optic and satellite channels, with completion expected a year ahead of schedule. The 239 billion tenge investment will also improve mobile service infrastructure and public facilities across remote areas. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, June 11
Northeast Asia
The Day the Music Died at the Shangri-La as US Projects Hard Power. United States Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s forceful address at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore highlighted a dramatic shift in American engagement in the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing hard power while sidelining the appeal of soft diplomacy. Hegseth warned of an imminent threat from China, citing aggression and preparation for conflict over Taiwan, and urged regional nations to increase military spending, proposing a 5% of GDP benchmark. However, his praise of former President Trump and clumsy comparison to Singapore's founding leader, Lee Kuan Yew, jarred with the audience. The display suggested waning American soft power and cast doubt on the credibility of any US-China diplomatic breakthrough, particularly as Beijing declined to send a top-level delegate. Hegseth’s rhetoric, while resonating with some, risked undermining the long-standing postwar security consensus in Asia, raising fears of a regional arms race and destabilization. The call to emulate Europe's defense posture comes amid growing skepticism about America’s reliability and coherence in foreign policy, given internal contradictions within the Trump administration. Escalating tensions through militarized narratives, rather than creating mutual understanding, could lead to dangerous miscalculations, making renewed emphasis on authentic dialogue essential for regional stability. Warren Fernandez, RSIS, June 10
US–China Competition Has Productive Potential for the Indo-Pacific. Strategic rivalry between the United States and China, though often framed in adversarial terms, is creating productive institutional competition that may benefit the Indo-Pacific region. With direct military confrontation constrained by nuclear deterrence, both powers are turning to "institutional balancing" using international institutions to project influence and limit each other's power. This takes two primary forms: inclusive balancing, such as China's WTO accession, and exclusive balancing, as seen in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. These rivalries have catalyzed innovation and reform in global governance structures, such as increased responsiveness from the Asian Development Bank in reaction to China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Moreover, the competition compels both nations to engage more deeply with ASEAN and Pacific Island states, increasing cooperation on climate resilience, health security, and infrastructure. While risks remain the net effect of institutional rivalry includes expanded development funding, higher transparency standards, and more options for smaller states. Even under a more transactional second Trump administration, this pattern is expected to persist. Carefully managed, institutional balancing offers a more stable and constructive path for great power interaction in the Indo-Pacific. Kai He, East Asia Forum, June 11
North Korea’s Failed Ship Launch: Failure or a Step Toward Progress?
North Korea’s unsuccessful launch of a 5,000-tonne Choe Hyon-class destroyer at Chongjin Shipyard on May 21 shows both the limits and growing sophistication of its naval shipbuilding program. Despite a flawed side-launch that left the vessel partially capsized, the regime refloated it within 15 days, well ahead of expectations, using cranes, balloons, and pumps. While satellite imagery confirmed damage to its bow and superstructure, the hull remained intact. This follows the April launch of a sister ship at Nampho Port and reflects Kim Jong Un’s push to modernize North Korea’s navy, with clear ambitions for a blue-water, nuclear-capable fleet. The destroyers, equipped with vertical launch systems for various missiles, suggest a change from coastal defense to extended maritime operations. Pyongyang’s ability to construct two such warships in just over a year, despite quality gaps with South Korean and US counterparts, shows its expanding capacity, possibly aided by Russian technological support. Moreover, North Korea positions naval shipbuilding as a dual-use sector vital for both defense and economic revitalization. The incident, while a setback, illustrates Pyongyang’s iterative approach to military development: progress through persistence, with failed tests as a stepping stone toward longer-term capability. Vann H. Van Diepen, J. James Kim, and Rachel Minyoung Lee, 38 North, June 10
China’s Initiatives in the Middle East and Israel. China’s diplomatic engagement in the Middle East shows a change toward multilateral cooperation and development-focused initiatives amid changing global dynamics. Through frameworks like the Belt and Road Initiative and Global Development Initiative, Beijing promotes a vision of inclusive progress and conflict resolution. A key diplomatic success was brokering the 2023 Saudi-Iran normalization deal, showing China’s focus on peaceful mediation over hard power. Despite these efforts, China’s influence in the region remains limited relative to the United States, which maintains dominance in both military and cultural domains. Notably, public sentiment in countries like Iran still favors stronger ties with the US. China-Israel relations, historically strained by Beijing’s stance on the Palestinian issue, have faced further pressure following the 2021 Gaza war and the October 7 Hamas attacks. Although China condemned the attacks, perceived diplomatic neutrality has led to Israeli unease, especially given China’s deepening ties with Iran. Nonetheless, there are no fundamental conflicts of interest between Israel and China, and third-party dynamics, if carefully managed, need not obstruct bilateral relations. China’s initiatives, while aspirational, struggle to gain robust international traction due to limited capacity and global skepticism. Success will hinge on domestic credibility and missteps by geopolitical rivals. Fan Hongda, ThinkChina, June 10.
Southeast Asia
Prabowo’s Tightrope Walk to 2029. President Prabowo Subianto has rapidly consolidated power in Indonesia through a loyalist-heavy cabinet, expanded military roles in civilian governance, and implemented large-scale welfare initiatives; however, his centralized approach poses economic and political risks. His Free Nutritious Meal program, targeting 82 million recipients, consumes nearly 10% of the national budget and is funded by widespread government cuts, potentially destabilizing public institutions and alienating coalition partners. Prabowo's continuation of Joko Widodo’s policies helped secure his electoral win, yet deviations from Jokowi’s technocratic pragmatism, especially his securitized governance style, threaten support from voters seeking continuity. Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s son, embodies both a link to the former president’s base and a liability due to perceptions of dynastic politics, particularly among millennials and Gen Z, who demand digital freedom, anti-corruption reforms, and economic opportunity. These younger voters now form the majority of Indonesia's electorate. Prabowo’s internet control proposals and military presence in government risk provoking youth-led backlash reminiscent of Thailand’s 2020 protests. Externally, rising US tariffs and strategic competition with China increase economic volatility. Navigating domestic instability, coalition discord, and geopolitical tensions without reverting to authoritarian tendencies will determine whether Prabowo's presidency becomes a period of sustained growth or systemic unraveling. Adi Abidin, East Asia Forum, June 10
Climate Modelling in Southeast Asia is Critical for Food Security. Southeast Asia’s agriculture is acutely vulnerable to climate change, with projections warning of a 6% GDP decline in the region without adaptation. To safeguard food security, ASEAN nations must invest in long-term climate modelling beyond near-term forecasting. High-resolution climate models enable critical decisions on irrigation, crop resilience, and infrastructure by projecting localized climate changes decades ahead. While countries like Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines have developed downscaled models, most Southeast Asian nations lag, relying instead on broader global models like CMIP6, which lack the spatial granularity needed for agricultural impact assessments. Regional models such as CORDEX-SEA and Singapore’s V3 offer vital data, with V3 forecasting Singapore will face up to 270 days per year of dangerous heat stress by century’s end. These insights support targeted interventions like drought-proofing or investing in climate-controlled farming. Expanding access to local meteorological data and leveraging open-source climate tools, such as NASA’s sea level projection tool, can further improve model accuracy and adaptation planning. To avoid being caught unprepared, Southeast Asia must prioritize climate impact modelling as a core strategy for food system resilience. Elyssa Kaur Ludher, FULCRUM, June 11