China
Beijing is looking at curbing overseas access to China's top AI models, sources say. Chinese authorities have discussed restricting overseas access to the country’s most advanced AI models, including unreleased systems, in meetings with Alibaba, ByteDance, and Z.ai. Officials also raised potential penalties for AI technology leaks or theft under national security law and possible limits on who can fund domestic AI startups, as Beijing treats frontier AI as a critical national asset. Fanny Potkin, Reuters, July 7
Xi presents orders to promote two military officers to rank of general. Xi Jinping, chairman of the Central Military Commission, presented promotion orders to two military officers at a ceremony in Beijing. Zhang Shuguang, secretary of the CMC discipline inspection commission and director of the CMC commission of supervision, and Wang Gang, commander of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force, were promoted to general, China’s highest rank for active-service officers. Global Times, July 7
Japan
Controversial bills threaten to push parliament session into overtime. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government is trying to pass remaining legislation before parliament’s scheduled July 17 recess while facing resistance over bills to reduce Lower House proportional representation seats and create a secondary capital. The JIP wants both measures passed under its coalition agreement with the LDP, while opposition parties are challenging the bills and an Imperial House Law revision. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, July 7
China, Japan trade conflicting accounts of confrontation around Senkaku islands. China and Japan issued conflicting accounts of a confrontation near the disputed Senkaku Islands involving coast guard vessels and a Japanese fishing boat. China’s Coast Guard said it expelled a Japanese vessel from territorial waters, while Japan said it intercepted and expelled two Chinese Coast Guard ships approaching a fishing boat with two crew members aboard. Joe Cash, Mariko Katsumura, Reuters, July 7
South Korea
Lee, Canadian PM Carney discuss cooperation on defense industry, critical minerals. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed to keep pursuing cooperation in defense, energy, critical minerals, and AI during talks on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara. Their meeting followed Canada’s selection of Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems as preferred bidder for a major submarine procurement project, disappointing South Korea’s bid. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 7
S. Korea, NATO to launch negotiations on basic procurement agreement: Seoul official. South Korea and NATO agreed to begin negotiations on a framework procurement agreement that could allow South Korean companies to enter NATO’s joint defense procurement market, valued at about 15 trillion won. President Lee Jae Myung and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte discussed cooperation during the NATO summit in Ankara, where Seoul also pledged US$100 million in nonlethal assistance for Ukraine. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, July 7
North Korea
China eyes new trade route linking Dandong and Dalian. China is pursuing a Dandong-Dalian logistics link to expand trade with North Korea by connecting land and sea routes in Liaoning province. Current trade remains limited by sanctions and relatively low volumes, with goods largely confined to construction materials, equipment, heavy machinery, raw materials, and commission processing. Local observers view the plan as a long-term strategy for future cooperation. Seon Hwa, Daily NK, July 7
Thailand
PM brushes aside cabinet reshuffle talk. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said there are no immediate plans for a cabinet reshuffle and ministers will be judged by policy implementation rather than media exposure. He urged ministries to better communicate government achievements, while senior coalition figures denied internal divisions. A Nida Poll showed declining support for Anutin and Bhumjaithai, with the People’s Party leading party preference. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, July 7
Govt backs new amnesty bill. Thailand’s government coalition agreed to support Senate amendments to the peaceful society promotion bill, an amnesty measure for politically motivated conflicts. Chief government whip Korrawee Prissananantakul said the revisions only refined wording and did not alter the bill’s principles. Pheu Thai accepted the Senate’s exclusion of Section 112 offences, citing existing protections for minors and relief for more than 6,000 political-case defendants. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 7
Myanmar
Myanmar regime’s Karen border offensive spills over into Thailand. Myanmar’s military has intensified drone and artillery attacks on Min Let Pan village in Karen State as regime and allied forces try to advance against KNLA-led resistance defenses near Myawaddy. Shells and machinegun fire have crossed into Thailand’s Mae Sot district, prompting tighter border security, closure of informal crossings, and warnings for civilians as displaced villagers face reduced access to food. Phoe Tar, The Irrawaddy, July 7
Philippines
Philippines' VP Duterte remains defiant as trial turns to alleged threats against Marcos. Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte briefly appeared at the Senate before her impeachment trial resumed, while her lawyers represented her in proceedings. Prosecutors focused on allegations that she threatened President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the first lady, and a former House Speaker, playing video clips authenticated by a National Bureau of Investigation official. Duterte denies wrongdoing and calls the impeachment politically motivated. Nestor Corrales, Reuters, July 7
VP Sara again asks SC to stop her trial. Lawyers for Vice President Sara Duterte again asked the Supreme Court to halt her impeachment trial, challenging the authority of Sen. Francis Escudero as presiding officer. Prosecutors presented an NBI cybercrime investigator as their first witness to authenticate videos of Duterte’s alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos and former Speaker Martin Romualdez. Franco Jose C. Baroña, Red Mendoza, Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, July 7
Indonesia
Indonesia, India sign agriculture, critical minerals and missile deals. Indonesia and India signed deals covering critical minerals, agriculture, defense, and the BrahMos cruise missile system during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Jakarta. The countries also agreed to strengthen critical minerals and steel supply chains, establish a stainless steel slab joint venture in Indonesia, accelerate preferential trade talks, and promote maritime security in the Indian Ocean. Stanley Widianto, Sakshi Dayal, Reuters, July 7
Taiwan
Taiwan's preparations to face a Chinese attack are not a provocation, senior official says. Taiwan’s security official Lin Fei-fan said the island’s preparations for a possible Chinese attack are defensive, not provocative. Taiwan has increased military spending and civil defense drills as China continues daily military activity around the island. Lin said Beijing’s preparations point toward military aggression and warned that Taiwan must build resilience before a crisis occurs. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, July 7
Duckworth reaffirms U.S. commitment in wake of Trump-Xi summit. U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth said her Taiwan visit was meant to reaffirm that congressional support for Taiwan remains steadfast regardless of president or party. Meeting President Lai Ching-te after the Trump-Xi summit, she said U.S.-Taiwan ties are strong and enduring, warned that a Taiwan Strait crisis could cost the global economy US$10 trillion, and pledged continued bipartisan backing for Taiwan’s security. Joseph Yeh, Focus Taiwan, July 7
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan's top court says president can seek another term. Kazakhstan’s constitutional court ruled that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is eligible to seek another term under a new constitution that took effect last week. The decision resets the term limit calculation, excluding time served under the old basic law. The new constitution keeps a single seven-year presidential term, creates a vice presidency, and streamlines parliament into one chamber. Felix Light, Mariya Gordeyeva, Reuters, July 7
Kazakhstan, six other OPEC+ members approve August oil production adjustment. Kazakhstan and six other OPEC+ members agreed to implement an 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in August after reviewing market conditions and the outlook. Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia reaffirmed their commitment to market stability, compensation for overproduced volumes, and monthly reviews of compliance and production policy. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, July 7
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan signs contract for new Tashkent airport, construction to run through 2030. Uzbekistan Airports signed a public-private partnership with a consortium led by Saudi Arabia’s Vision Invest to build and operate a new international airport in the Tashkent region. The project includes defined investor shares, a 35-year operating term, two 4-kilometer runways, a 208,000-square-meter terminal, and commissioning planned for late 2030. Tamila Olzhbaekova, The Times of Central Asia, July 7
East Asia
Xi Is Defining History on His Own Terms. Xi Jinping’s “New Era” divides Communist Party history into revolution, construction, reform, and his own stage after 2012. This framing ends reform as China’s defining period and elevates Xi above Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Deng Xiaoping. Reform remains in the official language, but now serves party control, security, self-reliance, and Chinese modernization rather than openness, markets, and social space. Deng Yuwen, Foreign Policy, July 7
China’s semiconductor industry is racing to catch the West’s. China has advanced in chip design as export controls pushed firms toward domestic processors, creating a protected market for Huawei, Alibaba, Baidu, Cambricon, and others. Demand for AI compute is vast, and engineers are improving hardware, software, and packaging workarounds. Manufacturing remains the barrier. Domestic foundries lack EUV lithography, high bandwidth memory is scarce, and advanced production still trails Western and allied suppliers. The Economist, July 7
China’s Customs-BOP Gap Is Not a Customs Problem. China’s current account surplus appears smaller than its customs goods surplus because of a disputed goods balance adjustment and an unexplained investment income deficit. Partner mirror data from major trading partners does not support claims that customs misreporting drives the gap. The divergence points inside SAFE’s balance of payments construction, leaving bonded-warehouse accounting, reclassification, transfer pricing, or residual smoothing as explanations for a surplus larger than reported. Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, July 7
Hormuz tests the PRC petrochemical build-out. China handled the Hormuz shock by drawing reserves, reducing crude imports, and using petrochemical capacity as strategic insurance. Overcapacity has lowered profits and triggered dumping claims, but planners value supply security under blockade. Coal-based chemicals offer resilience at high carbon cost, while advanced materials remain weak. Beijing now combines standards, funding, procurement, and multinational investment to close gaps that process knowledge cannot solve. CHINA POLICY, July 7
China’s moment to shape a new global order. China uses visits by Trump and Putin, warmer ties with Western leaders, and regional gains to advance a post-US global order. Beijing frames US ties as managed competition, seeks respect for its system and core interests, and sets red lines on Taiwan. Its partnership with Russia promotes equal multilateralism, yet selective rule adherence may limit legitimacy and expose hegemonic habits. Claus Soong, Merics, July 7
What China really wants from global governance. China’s global governance white paper uses familiar language on sovereignty, the UN, multilateralism, and developing countries, yet serves a changed purpose. Beijing now seeks to turn its rise into greater power over institutions, rules, finance, standards, and global narratives. By presenting its agenda as a Global South demand, China aims to constrain US influence, preserve useful parts of the system, and reshape authority within it. Deng Yuwen, ThinkChina, July 7
Taiwan Believes Japan Will Help Defend Against China. Taiwanese voters hold positive views of Japan and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi across party lines, including many KMT and TPP supporters. An April survey of 1,195 voters found that many expect Japan to aid Taiwan during a China conflict, with views of Takaichi shaping confidence. Perceptions of Japanese and US support move together, framing a Taiwan contingency as a regional security crisis. Lev Nachman, Wei-Ting Yen, Foreign Policy, July 7
Southeast Asia
Law alone won’t save the South China Sea. A decade after the 2016 arbitration, the South China Sea remains tense despite the ruling against China’s nine-dash line claims. Sovereignty questions remain unresolved, enforcement is absent, and clashes persist as coast guards and navies expand operations. Stability needs UNCLOS, diplomacy, crisis management, practical cooperation, and a meaningful ASEAN-China Code of Conduct covering biodiversity, fishing, shipping, disaster response, and blue economy initiatives. Ngeow Chow Bing, ThinkChina, July 7
Indonesia’s export scheme may clash with WTO rules. Indonesia’s plan to centralize strategic commodity exports through Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia seeks to curb mis-invoicing, yet its design risks breaching WTO disciplines. Selective partner choice, price setting, or export limits could violate most-favored-nation and quantitative restriction rules. A commercial body focused on policing trade may fail state trading enterprise standards, while customs cooperation, tax integration, and transfer pricing checks offer safer compliance paths for Indonesia’s economic diplomacy and credibility. Farhan Julianto, East Asia Forum, July 7
Thailand’s energy crisis demands more than short-term remedies. Thailand’s exposure to Middle Eastern oil, gas, and fertilizer has pushed fuel, urea, consumer, and producer prices higher after the US-Israel war on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Short-term measures have eased pressure, yet subsidy cuts, broad loans, and electric vehicle incentives lack coherence. Bangkok needs supplier diversification, energy infrastructure, water management, crop research, fiscal reform, and sustained restructuring tied to Thailand 4.0 goals. Juthathip Jongwanich, East Asia Forum, July 7
Oceania
Beijing’s own goal in the Pacific. China’s submarine missile test into Pacific waters undercut its regional message as Australia signed security pacts with Vanuatu and Fiji. The launch gave Pacific leaders a clear example of outside powers treating the region as a stage for rivalry. Albanese can use the moment to support security partnerships that offer agency, consultation, and concrete benefits while strengthening Australia’s case for Pacific engagement at home and abroad. Oliver Nobetau, Lowy Institute, July 7