Asia Daily: July 8, 2024
News
China anchors 'monster ship' in South China Sea, Philippine coast guard says. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported that China's largest coastguard vessel anchored in Manila's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) on July 2, aiming to intimidate the Philippines. PCG spokesperson Jay Tarriela stated the 165-meter vessel was positioned 800 yards from a PCG ship, prompting a warning to the Chinese vessel. This move comes amid ongoing tensions over maritime disputes, with the Philippines rejecting US assistance despite recent conflicts with China over resupply missions to Filipino troops on a contested shoal. Neil Jerome Morales, Reuters, July 6
China’s Xi calls on world powers to help Russia and Ukraine resume direct dialogue. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged world powers to facilitate direct dialogue between Russia and Ukraine during a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán, on a peace mission following visits to Russia and Ukraine, emphasized China's role in fostering peace. Xi called for a cease-fire and encouraged major powers to create a positive environment for talks. China continues to advocate its six-point peace plan, maintaining a neutral stance while supporting Russia through trade and joint military exercises. Orbán, who has built strong ties with China, aims to enhance Hungary's strategic partnership with Beijing. Simina Mistreanu, AP News, July 8
Japan and Philippines sign defense pact amid growing China concern. Japan and the Philippines signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) in Manila to enhance defense and security cooperation. The agreement allows for mutual deployment of troops for joint military exercises and operations. This pact aims to strengthen military collaboration in response to China's assertive actions in the South China Sea and East China Sea. The agreement is part of efforts to counter China's growing influence and maintain regional stability. Kyodo News, July 8
Putin meets Indian prime minister in Russia on his first visit since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia for a two-day meeting with President Vladimir Putin, his first visit since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They discussed strengthening their "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership," focusing on defense and trade. Modi's visit comes as Russia moves closer to China, complicating India's strategic interests. The leaders also explored developing a maritime corridor between Chennai and Vladivostok. Trade between India and Russia reached $65 billion in the 2023-24 financial year. Krutika Pathi, Jim Heintz, and Vladimir Isachenkov, AP News, July 8
EBRD plans to double investments in Kazakhstan in 2024. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plans to double its investments in Kazakhstan, focusing on sustainable socio-economic development. Key projects include improving the reliability of electricity supply with KEGOC, constructing new sewage treatment facilities in Aktobe, and supporting women's and youth entrepreneurship. EBRD has already financed Almaty Airport's new passenger terminal and participated in Air Astana's IPO. Since beginning its cooperation, EBRD has invested €10.2 billion in Kazakhstan through 324 projects. The Times of Central Asia, July 8
Yoon departs for U.S. for NATO summit with focus on Russia-N. Korea ties. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol left for the U.S. to attend a NATO summit, addressing concerns over North Korea and Russia's defense cooperation. Yoon will discuss the Ukraine war and enhance cooperation between NATO and the Indo-Pacific region. South Korea considers sending weapons to Ukraine due to Russia's recent defense treaty with North Korea. Yoon will meet NATO leaders and attend a dinner hosted by President Joe Biden. He will also visit the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, July 8
Japan PM, Britain’s new leader agree to deepen bilateral relations. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and Britain's new leader, Prime Minister William Jones, have agreed to strengthen bilateral ties in various sectors, including security, trade, and technology. During a phone conversation, they emphasized the importance of cooperation in maintaining global stability and addressing shared challenges such as climate change. Both leaders expressed a commitment to enhancing their strategic partnership and continuing dialogues on critical international issues. Kyodo News, July 6
South Korea's Yoon to discuss Pyongyang's 'distinct threat' to Europe at NATO. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol plans to address the threat posed by North Korea's military ties with Russia during the upcoming NATO summit in Washington. He emphasized that Russia must choose between its relations with North or South Korea. Yoon will assess South Korea's potential military support for Ukraine based on the extent of Russian-North Korean cooperation. Yoon aims to strengthen security ties with Europe and the US to counter North Korean threats. Ju-min Park and Jack Kim, Reuters, July 8
President Tô Lâm to pay state visits to Laos, Cambodia. Vietnamese President Tô Lâm will visit Laos and Cambodia from July 11-13, following invitations from Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith and Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni. The visits aim to strengthen bilateral relations and cooperation in various fields, including politics, economy, culture, and defense. The meetings will address mutual interests and discuss measures to enhance the traditional friendship and comprehensive partnership between Vietnam and its neighboring countries. Vietnam News, July 8
South Korea drops plan to suspend licenses of striking doctors. South Korea has decided not to suspend the licenses of trainee doctors who have been on strike since February over the government's plan to increase medical school admissions. Health Minister Cho Kyoo-hong cited the urgent need to address the medical service shortage. The government urged trainee doctors to return to work and participate in discussions about their working conditions and the future medical school admission quota for 2026 and beyond. Ju-min Park, Reuters, July 8
Lao Statistics Bureau, international partners plan for landmark 2025 census. The Lao government, led by the Lao Statistics Bureau (LSB) and supported by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is preparing for the country's first digital Population and Housing Census in March 2025. This census will involve 1.4 million households and use advanced technologies such as Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews (CAPI) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The census aims to provide crucial data for national development planning and monitor international development programs like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, July 8
North Korea's Kim Yo Jong accuses S.Korean leader of using tensions as political distraction. Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, accused South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol of escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula to distract from domestic issues. She criticized recent South Korean military drills and cited an online petition for Yoon's impeachment. Seoul's unification ministry condemned Kim's remarks, urging North Korea to focus on its people's welfare. Tensions have risen following North Korea's defense pact with Russia and the exchange of provocative balloon launches. Joyce Lee and Ju-min Park, Reuters, July 7
DND, Thai Navy discuss defense cooperation. Department of National Defense (DND) Undersecretary Angelito De Leon met with Admiral Adung Pan-Inam, commander-in-chief of the Royal Thai Navy, in Manila to discuss measures to enhance military cooperation. The meeting coincided with the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the Philippines and Thailand. Topics included strengthening defense ties and exploring collaborative initiatives. This dialogue is part of broader efforts to bolster mutual security and operational capabilities in the region. Francis Earl Cueto, The Manila Times, July 7
Revival of Indonesia-Cambodia Friendship School marks 65 years of diplomacy. The Indonesia-Cambodia Friendship Primary and Secondary School in Prey Veng province has been revitalized with new supplies, lab equipment, and facilities, thanks to donations from the Indonesian community. The event, marking 65 years of diplomatic relations and Indonesia's 79th Independence Day, was attended by key dignitaries including Indonesian Ambassador Santo Darmosumarto. This renovation underscores the enduring friendship and cooperation between Indonesia and Cambodia. Hong Raksmey, The Phnom Penh Post, July 8
China says Philippine warships 'damaged' reef at atoll in South China Sea. China accused Philippine warships of illegally beaching at the Nansha Islands, damaging the coral reef ecosystem. China's Ministry of Natural Resources reported that the ships near Second Thomas Shoal have harmed reef diversity and sustainability. This area is part of the contested Spratly Islands, a vital maritime route. The Philippines has maintained a presence on a grounded warship at the shoal since 1999 to assert its maritime claims. Both nations recently agreed on the need to restore trust and manage disputes better. Farah Master, Reuters, July 8
U.S. envoy for N. Korean human rights to visit S. Korea this week. Julie Turner, the U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights, will visit South Korea from Wednesday to Saturday. Her visit aims to highlight U.S. support for North Korean defectors and raise awareness about human rights abuses in North Korea. Turner will participate in a forum, meet with Seoul officials, civil society organizations, and industry groups to discuss forced labor and supply chain issues. This visit coincides with North Korean Defectors' Day on Sunday. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, July 8
Long Form
Australia's AUKUS Debate. AUKUS, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US, focuses on enhancing military capabilities. The debate on its utility centers around concerns about maintaining current submarine fleets, the transfer of US Virginia-class submarines, the UK's ability to meet commitments, and Australia's capacity to build the necessary workforce. Critics, like Hugh White, argue against the strategic alignment with the US, while supporters believe in AUKUS's role in regional deterrence. Connor Fiddler, Hub-and-Spokes, July 8
Nahdlatul Ulama Ventures into Mining: Threat to the ‘Green Islam’ in Indonesia? The Indonesian Islamic organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) plans to enter the mining industry, raising concerns about the impact on Indonesia's green Islam movement, which focuses on environmental sustainability. President Joko Widodo's regulatory amendments allow social and religious organizations to obtain mining licenses, stirring debate about balancing economic and environmental responsibilities. NU's historical opposition to environmentally harmful activities contrasts with its current leadership's acceptance of mining concessions for funding purposes. Iim Halimatusa’diyah and Endi Aulia Garadian, Fulcrum, July 8
Neighbour to Civil War: Thailand’s Relations with Myanmar in 2024. Thailand's relationship with Myanmar is complex due to economic and security ties. With Myanmar in civil war since the 2021 coup, Thailand navigates supporting ASEAN peace efforts while maintaining its interests. The Thai military has strong connections with Myanmar's junta, complicating policy consistency. The Pheu Thai government faces internal discord on Myanmar policy, straining civil-military relations. Thailand remains economically dependent on Myanmar, notably in energy and trade. Paul Chambers and Kridsana Chotisut, Fulcrum, July 8
Yoon Suk-yeol set to warn about Moscow-Pyongyang ties at NATO summit. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol will attend the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington, D.C. He plans to warn about the growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Yoon will also hold bilateral meetings with NATO members and Indo-Pacific partners, focusing on energy and security cooperation. Before the summit, he will visit Honolulu, Hawaii, to strengthen the U.S.-South Korea security alliance. Korea Pro, July 8
Europe's push for domestic arms production threatens South Korea's exports. The European Union's initiative to boost domestic arms production poses challenges to South Korea's defense industry. The EU plans to increase EU-made weapon purchases from 20% to 60% by 2035, aiming to reduce reliance on non-European suppliers. This shift, supported by leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, threatens South Korea's recent successes in markets like Poland and Romania, complicating Seoul's efforts to secure its market share. Joon Ha Park, Korea Pro, July 8
Why Russia’s designs on North Korean rare-earth metals probably won’t pan out. Russia is interested in North Korea's rare-earth metals to enhance its technology sector. However, numerous obstacles such as poor infrastructure, geopolitical risks, and lack of modern mining technology could hinder the exploitation of these resources. North Korea's reserves, although substantial, remain underdeveloped and challenging to access. Collaborative ventures may face substantial hurdles, making successful extraction and commercialization unlikely. Sulgiye Park, NK Pro, July 8
Why the Himalayan Region Is Integral to a Rules-Based Order in the Indo-Pacific. The Himalayan region's strategic importance is accentuated by China's militarization and expansionism, impacting not just India but also the U.S. and its Indo-Pacific allies. Recent U.S. support for Tibet stresses the region's significance in maintaining a rules-based order. Integrating Himalayan security within the Indo-Pacific framework is crucial for regional stability, as tensions here influence broader maritime and territorial disputes. Jagannath Panda, Ryohei Kasai, and Eerishika Pankaj, The Diplomat, July 6
The Problem With POGOs. Investigations into Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) have revealed links to organized crime, human trafficking, and potential Chinese espionage. Raids have uncovered illegal activities and connections to local officials, sparking national security concerns. Lawmakers urge President Marcos to shut down POGOs due to their security threats and proximity to military sites. While contributing significant revenue, POGOs face calls for stricter regulation and background checks on political candidates to prevent future risks. Felix Iglesias, The Diplomat, July 8
Japan’s jobs market on the way to modernization. The Japanese job market is undergoing significant changes, driven by the need for increased flexibility and the impact of COVID-19. Traditional employment practices, like lifetime employment and seniority-based promotion, are giving way to more diverse, year-round recruitment systems. These changes aim to facilitate easier transitions between industries and improve work-life balance. The adoption of remote working and digital skills are key trends, with a growing number of young workers interested in side jobs. These shifts are critical for Japan's economic modernization and labor market fluidity. Yuri Okina, East Asia Forum, July 7
Japan's economic comeback as labour shortages nudge productivity up. Japan is experiencing a gradual economic recovery as labour shortages drive productivity improvements. Recent reforms aim to address this by enhancing workforce skills and supporting start-ups, crucial for revitalizing the economy. The focus is on reskilling programs, improving the treatment of non-regular workers, and fostering innovation. Structural reforms and government initiatives like the Start-up Development Five-year Plan and the Doubling Asset-based Income Plan are part of the strategy to sustain long-term growth and address demographic challenges. Yuri Okina, East Asia Forum, July 8
Regime security trumps relationships for Beijing. Beijing prioritizes regime security over international relationships, evident in its domestic and foreign policies. This has led to tighter control within China, sacrificing economic growth to mitigate internal and external threats. The focus on maintaining stability and security has influenced China's interactions with global powers, including the United States. Diplomatic efforts are centered on avoiding conflict while asserting territorial interests, as seen in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. For sustained progress in US-China relations, exceptional diplomatic skills and adherence to international law are essential. Sourabh Gupta, East Asia Forum, July 8
What’s Behind South Korea’s New Defectors’ Day Holiday? South Korea will commemorate its first North Korean Defectors’ Day on July 14, marking the anniversary of the North Korean Defectors Protection and Settlement Support Act. The Yoon administration aims to advance policies for the North Korean diaspora, focusing on global cooperation against transnational repression, protecting vulnerable North Koreans abroad, and engaging the global diaspora network. This initiative is part of South Korea's broader strategy to promote human rights and prepare for potential unification grounded in liberal democracy. Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 8
Japan-NATO Ties: For What End? Japan's increasing cooperation with NATO, including agreements on cyber-defense, counterterrorism, and space security, aims to counteract threats from Russia and China. Despite this closer alignment, neither Japan nor NATO have committed to direct military support in case of regional conflicts. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and joint efforts in cyber and space resilience are likely avenues for cooperation. This collaboration seeks to deter aggressors and maintain stability without extending NATO's geographic defense commitments. Jeffrey W. Hornung, RAND, July 8
Political upheaval in Vietnam is holding its economy back. Vietnam's economy is hindered by political turmoil, particularly due to a stringent anti-corruption campaign that began in 2016 but intensified in 2023. This campaign has led to numerous high-profile resignations and cautious public investment decisions. Despite some economic growth, investment has contracted, and foreign investors are wary. Administrative delays and mass resignations, especially in local governments, further stall progress. Vietnam must address these issues to fully capitalize on shifting global supply chains and sustain economic growth. Ahmed Albayrak and Roland Rajah, Lowy Institute, July 8
The NATO summit in Washington will be critical to Australia’s interests. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's decision to skip the NATO Summit in Washington raises concerns, given the summit's significance amid global tensions. Australia aims to strengthen ties with NATO, emphasizing support for Ukraine and shared security goals. The summit is crucial for addressing NATO's strategic direction, economic sanctions, and military aid amidst challenges posed by Russia and China. Australia's involvement with NATO and its partners remains vital for regional stability and global security. Jane Hardy, Lowy Institute, July 8