China
China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine: sources. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi privately told EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas that Beijing opposes a Russian defeat in Ukraine, fearing such an outcome would shift U.S. strategic focus to China. While denying direct support for Moscow, Wang defended China's position during a tense, four-hour dialogue that touched on trade friction and sanctions. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, July 3
Chinese military conducts combat readiness patrol around Scarborough Shoal. China’s Southern Theatre Command announced its naval and air forces conducted a combat readiness patrol near the disputed Scarborough Shoal to assert control over the surrounding sea and airspace. The patrols, ongoing since June, aim to defend China’s claimed sovereignty and security. The Philippines, which also claims the shoal, did not immediately respond. Liz Lee, Reuters, July 3
China denies military base ambitions in Pacific Islands. China’s embassy in Fiji rejected claims it seeks to establish military bases in the Pacific, labeling such reports “false narratives.” The statement came after Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka warned of Beijing’s growing influence. China emphasized its activities focus on infrastructure and livelihoods, not troop deployment. The U.S. has expressed concern since 2018 about Chinese military expansion in the region. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, July 3
Japan
Japan seeks tariff talks early next week in U.S. amid impasse. Japan plans to send top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa to Washington for a final round of tariff talks before a July 9 deadline, aiming to avert a 14% country-specific tariff atop a 10% baseline. While Tokyo seeks to reduce or remove a 25% auto levy, the U.S. has floated raising tariffs to 30–35% and capping Japanese car exports. PM Ishiba emphasized Japan’s role in U.S. investment. Kyodo News, July 4
South Korea
Gov't earmarks 88.5 tln won for response to low birth rate, aging population in 2025. South Korea will allocate 88.5 trillion won (US$64.8 billion) in 2025 to address its demographic crisis, with 28.6 trillion won targeting fertility-boosting measures like baby and parent cash subsidies. The budget marks a 6.4% increase from last year and includes 12.2 trillion won for local government initiatives. The national fertility rate rose slightly to 0.79 but remains among the world’s lowest. Kim Na-young, Yonhap News Agency, July 4
S. Korean President calls for dialogue with N. Korea, more summit diplomacy and inclusive politics at home. President Lee Jae Myung emphasized restoring inter-Korean dialogue through engagement backed by U.S. cooperation, calling a communication breakdown with Pyongyang a “foolish act.” He cited North Korea’s swift response to halted loudspeaker broadcasts as a hopeful sign and proposed reviving shuttle diplomacy with Japan. Anna J. Park, The Korea Times, July 3
South Korea's parliament passes revision to rules governing martial law. South Korea’s parliament approved new rules barring military and police from entering the National Assembly without the Speaker’s consent and preventing obstruction of lawmakers’ access. The revision follows former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s abrupt martial law decree in December 2024, which was overturned after legislators breached a security cordon to vote it down. The incident prompted national alarm and legal reforms. Joyce Lee, Reuters, July 3
South Korea trade minister to leave for US on Friday as tariff deadline looms. Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo will travel to Washington for critical tariff negotiations ahead of the July 9 deadline, as the U.S. considers steep levies on South Korean cars and steel. Yeo may request a pause extension and emphasized the importance of balancing U.S. demands with domestic sensitivities. Hyunjoo Jin, Ju-min Park, Reuters, July 4
North Korea
Kim Jong Un uses Iran conflict to justify nuclear expansion. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un cited the Israel-Iran conflict as validation for enhancing Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal, framing it as a defense against imperialist aggression. At a June party meeting, he ordered major upgrades to nuclear infrastructure, praised Iran’s strategic restraint, and emphasized preemptive and retaliatory strike capabilities. Lee Sang-yong, Daily NK, July 3
India
India's Modi arrives in Trinidad and Tobago for first official visit. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his inaugural visit to Trinidad and Tobago, aimed at enhancing cooperation in energy, healthcare, and security. With over 35% of the population tracing roots to India, the trip holds cultural significance. Modi is scheduled to meet officials, address Parliament, and sign multiple agreements. Security measures included government office closures to ease traffic. Associated Press, July 3
Thailand
Thailand's suspended prime minister takes oath in new Cabinet. Thailand swore in a new Cabinet on July 3 after the Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra pending an ethics investigation related to a leaked call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. Paetongtarn rejoined the government as culture minister, while Phumtham Wechayachai, a close ally of her father Thaksin Shinawatra, became acting prime minister. Associated Press, July 3
Thai opposition to hold off on no-confidence vote against government. Thailand’s opposition parties, led by the People’s Party, decided to delay a no-confidence motion against suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra pending a Constitutional Court ruling. A reshuffled cabinet was sworn in, with Paetongtarn reassigned as culture minister and Phumtham Wechayachai named caretaker leader. Panu Wongcha-um, Panarat Thepgumpanat, Reuters, July 3
Casino bill decision due on Monday. Thailand’s government will decide Monday whether to withdraw the controversial casino-entertainment complex bill from the House agenda, according to PM’s Office Minister Chousak Sirinil. The bill, once deemed urgent, may be delayed or pulled due to a recent cabinet reshuffle. Senate concerns over transparency and legal implications prompted plans to summon a representative of suspended PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra for clarification on July 17. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, July 3
Vietnam
Vietnam sets two-tier local government system. Vietnam began implementing a nationwide two-tier local administration model on July 1, reducing its provinces and cities from 63 to 34 and eliminating districts. This sweeping restructuring aims to streamline governance and enhance public service delivery. Mergers occurred across all regions, including northern provinces combining into larger units, central localities integrating into coastal cities, and major expansions in Ho Chi Minh City and the Mekong Delta. Vietnam News, July 4
Cambodia
Cambodia, US agree on Draft Joint Statement on Framework for US-Cambodia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade. Cambodia and the United States finalized a draft joint statement on a reciprocal trade framework during a virtual meeting between Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol and Assistant USTR Sarah Ellerman. The statement, to be publicly released soon, reflects both nations’ commitment to fostering a mutually beneficial trade and investment relationship under Prime Minister Hun Manet’s leadership. Khmer Times, July
Philippines
ICC rejects Duterte bid to disqualify judges in drug war case. The International Criminal Court denied former president Rodrigo Duterte’s request to disqualify two judges, ruling that prior decisions do not indicate bias. The Pre-Trial Chamber will now decide on jurisdiction, which could move the case toward trial. The ICC also received a new batch of evidence detailing killings and case context from Duterte’s mayoral and presidential terms. Javier Joe Ismael and Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 4
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan establish Green Corridor Union. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan formed the Green Corridor Union to support the Azerbaijan-Central Asia Green Energy Corridor initiative. The venture, headquartered in Baku, was signed by national electricity companies and aims to enhance regional energy security and sustainability. Officials highlighted the union’s alignment with goals set at COP29 and partnerships with Saudi Arabia’s energy ministries. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, July 4
CICA headquarters officially inaugurated in Astana. Kazakhstan inaugurated the permanent headquarters of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Astana, with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev calling it a symbolically and strategically important step. Founded in 1992, CICA now includes 28 member states and several observers. Tokayev emphasized multilateralism, regional integration, and digital transformation amid rising geopolitical tensions. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, July 3
Uzbekistan
President of Uzbekistan discusses trade and economic cooperation with Afghanistan. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with Afghanistan’s Acting Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar during the ECO summit in Khankendi to advance bilateral cooperation in trade, logistics, energy, and industry. Discussions highlighted growing trade turnover, new Uzbek trading houses in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif, and the Preferential Trade Agreement. Both sides prioritized accelerating the Trans-Afghan Railway project to connect Central and South Asia. Uzbekistan Daily, July 3
Northeast Asia
Peng Cheng Lab (鹏城实验室): Building advanced platforms and infrastructure for military-civil fusion in AI. Peng Cheng Lab (PCL), a research institute established by the Guangdong and Shenzhen governments in 2018, plays a critical role in advancing China’s AI capabilities through military-civil fusion. It supports the development of large language models and sophisticated computing platforms like “Cloud Brain,” which aids domestic tech giants such as Huawei and Baidu. PCL’s 410 researchers engage in cutting-edge work across domains such as smart cities, cyber operations, and aerospace applications. Its projects include one of China’s top cyber ranges, linked to cyberattack preparations and the influence of Fang Binxing, architect of the Great Firewall. International collaboration remains significant, with hundreds of co-authored papers and contributions to global standards. Rebecca Arcesati, MERICS, July 3
Hong Kong’s Freedoms: What China Promised and How It’s Cracking Down. Despite promises under the “one country, two systems” framework to preserve Hong Kong’s autonomy until 2047, Beijing has steadily tightened control. This legislation criminalizes dissent and curtails freedoms of speech, press, and assembly. It has led to arrests of pro-democracy figures, electoral overhauls favoring pro-Beijing candidates, and the suppression of civil society. In 2024, Article 23 expanded these restrictions, targeting foreign influence and political activism. International backlash includes sanctions and revised immigration policies, but China’s actions have nonetheless eroded Hong Kong’s democratic institutions, spurred a mass exodus, and jeopardized its status as a financial hub. Lindsay Maizland and Clara Fong, Council on Foreign Relations, July 3
Victory Day parade: Will Trump join Xi in Beijing? China plans to commemorate the 80th anniversary of its victory in the Second Sino-Japanese War with a major military parade on September 3, and speculation is mounting over whether U.S. President Donald Trump will attend. Trump has expressed interest in meeting President Xi Jinping and has signaled openness to visiting Beijing. The potential optics of Trump joining Xi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Tiananmen Gate have stirred intense debate, given current geopolitical tensions. While a visit could offer diplomatic openings, it risks political backlash in the U.S. and alarm among allies like Japan. The decision remains open, but the implications are significant. Yang Danxu, ThinkChina, July 3
How the Iran-Israel conflict is rewriting China’s global playbook. The recent Iran-Israel war has catalyzed a strategic recalibration in Beijing. China condemned the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and promoted restraint through the UN. With nearly half of its crude oil sourced from the Gulf, Beijing prioritized energy security while steering clear of direct military engagement. Failed efforts at the SCO meeting to censure U.S. action reveal China’s limits as a regional mediator. Nonetheless, Beijing is leveraging the crisis to accelerate yuan-based oil trade, expand overland energy routes, and strengthen its image as a restrained yet reliable actor. This evolving doctrine signals China’s long-term strategy of positioning itself as a stabilizing force amid volatile global crises. Imran Khalid, ThinkChina, July 3
Southeast Asia
China isn’t the main culprit in Indonesia’s dirty nickel boom. Indonesia’s environmental degradation from nickel mining is driven primarily by domestic governance failures rather than Chinese influence alone. While China is the largest consumer and financier of Indonesian nickel projects, it operates within a permissive system crafted by Jakarta, where corruption, weak regulation, and suppressed dissent are prevalent. The Indonesian government grants permits, neglects oversight, and sidelines local communities, including in high-profile regions like Raja Ampat and Morowali. Chinese firms benefit but do not unilaterally dictate terms. The root issues lie in Indonesia’s regulatory shortcomings and political choices, making internal reform essential for sustainable development. Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, Lowy Institute, July 3
Buying Trump's favour won't save Southeast Asian exports. Southeast Asian countries have made substantial economic concessions to mitigate the impact of steep U.S. tariffs under President Trump’s revived protectionist agenda. Despite these moves, including Vietnam’s procurement of U.S. arms and aircraft, tariff relief remains partial and unpredictable. Such concessions, aimed at appeasement, lack reciprocity and undermine multilateral frameworks like CPTPP and RCEP. Fragmented bilateral negotiations also weaken ASEAN’s cohesion, exposing member states to coercion. While countries like Vietnam and Indonesia pursue diversification and South–South partnerships, lasting strategic autonomy cannot be secured through transactional diplomacy alone. Vu Lam, East Asia Forum, July 4
South Asia
Squad a strategic boon for India and the Quad. India’s potential inclusion in the “Squad,” a maritime security coalition of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, aligns with its Indo-Pacific ambitions and could amplify the Quad’s effectiveness. Proposed at the 2025 Raisina Dialogue, this expansion would allow India to assert maritime influence in the South China Sea, vital for energy routes and supply chains. Chinese militarization and aggressive posturing have pushed India to adopt a more proactive role. The Squad offers localized tactical engagement, complementing the Quad’s strategic posture. Participation would improve India’s status as a net security provider and affirm its commitment to a rules-based order. Rahul Mishra, East Asia Forum, July 4