News
Firms weigh removing Taiwan staff from China after death penalty threat. Some foreign companies are considering relocating Taiwanese employees from China after Beijing's threat to impose the death penalty on "diehard" Taiwan independence supporters. This has caused Taiwanese expatriates and multinationals to reassess their legal risks. Legal experts warn the broad phrasing of the guidelines could lead to severe consequences for benign actions. The move increases business uncertainty in China amid existing laws on espionage and national security. Laurie Chen, Reuters, July 4
Philippine military chief warns his forces will fight back if assaulted again in disputed sea. Philippine forces will defend themselves if attacked by China's coast guard in the South China Sea, said Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. This follows an incident where Chinese personnel injured Filipino navy members and damaged boats. The Philippines demands China pay $1 million in damages and return seized rifles. Territorial disputes in the area involve multiple nations and could escalate tensions between the US and China. Jim Gomez, AP News, July 4
Japan envoy meets with Japanese executive detained in Myanmar. Japanese Ambassador to Myanmar, Masashi Noguchi, met with Hiroshi Kasamatsu, a Japanese executive detained by Myanmar's military regime for allegedly selling rice above government-mandated prices. Kasamatsu, 53, is an executive at Aeon Orange Co., a joint venture between Japan's Aeon Co. and a local firm. The Japanese government is actively seeking his release, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi confirming Kasamatsu's health status and promising continued efforts for his freedom. Kyodo News, July 1
PLA mulls drone-only island blockade while the US plans drone-only intervention in Taiwan. A recent PLA study reveals China’s ability to blockade islands with drones, contrasting the US "Hellscape" strategy to counter PLA moves on Taiwan using drone swarms. The PLA’s simulations showed drones' cost-effectiveness and efficiency in reconnaissance and assaults. The US strategy aims to create a "hellscape" in the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing drone use to avoid casualties. Both countries are leveraging drone technology for military supremacy. Stephen Chen, South China Morning Post, July 4
Kyrgyz Supreme Court upholds sentence of activist Zarina Torokulova. The Supreme Court of Kyrgyzstan has upheld the conviction of activist Zarina Torokulova, who was sentenced to five years' imprisonment with three years' probation for violating the Criminal Code related to incitement and mass disorder. Torokulova's lawyer, Akmat Alagushev, stated that the charges were unproven. The conviction was based on her social media activities, including reposts critical of the government. The ruling has drawn criticism for perceived judicial overreach and suppression of dissent. The Times of Central Asia, July 4
Japan, Philippines defence pact negotiations nearing conclusion, ambassador says. Negotiations between Japan and the Philippines for a Reciprocal Access Agreement on defense and security are close to conclusion, according to Tokyo's ambassador to Manila, Endo Kazuya. The agreement would facilitate defense equipment transfer and allow military forces from both countries to visit each other's territories. This move is part of the Philippines' strategy to counter China's increasing aggression in the South China Sea. Japanese and Philippine ministers will discuss the pact on July 8. Mikhail Flores and Karen Lema, Reuters, July 4
Prime Minister concludes successful visit to RoK. Prime Minister Phạm Minh ChÃnh concluded a successful visit to South Korea from June 30 to July 3, engaging in 34 activities including meetings with President Yoon Seok Yeol and other officials. ChÃnh attended the Việt Nam-RoK business forum and other significant events, and held talks with leaders of major Korean firms. The visit resulted in over 40 cooperation agreements covering digital transformation, renewable energy, AI, trade, and more, strengthening the Việt Nam-RoK comprehensive strategic partnership. Vietnam News, Vietnam News, July 4
Iran to provide Kazakhstan with irrigation technology. Kazakhstan and Iran have agreed to collaborate on improving water resource management. Iranian companies will supply modern irrigation systems, such as groundwater and automatic drip systems, which have successfully reduced water usage in Iran. This partnership follows discussions between Kazakh Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov and Iranian Ambassador Ali Akbar Joukar. Kazakhstan aims to enhance its irrigation infrastructure, including projects in Zhambyl and Turkestan provinces, and invites Iranian firms to participate in upcoming tenders. The Times of Central Asia, July 3
Pita presses Pheu Thai on promises. Move Forward Party (MFP) chief adviser Pita Limjaroenrat urged the ruling Pheu Thai Party to honor its promises, including improving parliamentary transparency and passing a new political amnesty bill. These promises were part of an MoU signed before forming the coalition government. Pita's remarks were directed at Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and the cabinet during a parliamentary session. The MFP also consulted on increasing the frequency of House meetings to address the backlog of pending bills. Onnucha Hutasingh, Bangkok Post, July 4
The Kremlin says India’s Modi will visit Russia on July 8-9, hold talks with Putin. The Kremlin announced Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia on July 8-9 to discuss various issues with President Vladimir Putin. The visit, initially announced last month, marks Modi's first visit to Russia since 2019. Russia and India have maintained strong ties since the Cold War, with India becoming a key trading partner for Russian oil post-Ukraine invasion. However, tensions exist due to Russia's growing relations with China, India's rival. Modi's visit aims to reinforce bilateral cooperation despite these challenges. Vladimir Isachenkov and Ashok Sharma, AP News, July 4
Rifle Fire Audible in Lashio as Rebels Encircle Myanmar Junta Stronghold. Heavy fighting has been reported in Lashio, Myanmar, where ethnic rebel groups, including the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), have encircled a key junta stronghold. The rebels' control of major trade routes has forced the junta to rely on air transport for supplies and reinforcements. Despite air and artillery strikes by the junta, the resistance continues to make advances, particularly in areas like Kutkai, Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Mongmit townships. The Irrawaddy, July 4
Indonesian, Turkish air forces explore defense cooperation. The Indonesian Air Force (TNI AU) and Turkish Air Force (THK) discussed potential collaboration in Ankara, focusing on soldier exchanges and technology transfers. TNI AU Chief of Staff Marshall Mohamad Tonny Harjono and THK Commander General Ziya Cemal Kadıoğlu explored ways to enhance their air defense capabilities and maintain harmonious military relations. Harjono also visited Baykar Technology in Istanbul, learning about advancements in UAV and AI technologies. Antara News, July 4
Opposition-controlled National Assembly passes bill on special counsel probe over Marine's death. The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) on Thursday pushed through a bill mandating a special counsel investigation into the military's response to Marine Cpl. Chae Su-geun's death, despite protests from the ruling party. The bill, which passed 189-1, aims to investigate alleged interference in the Marine Corps' internal probe. The ruling People Power Party (PPP) criticized the move and plans to boycott the National Assembly's opening ceremony. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, July 4
Inflation, WPS woes a drag on Marcos ratings. Inflation, territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), and government corruption have negatively impacted President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s approval ratings, according to Publicus Asia's Pahayag second quarter survey. The poll conducted from June 15 to 19 identified inflation as the top issue (25%), followed by the WPS dispute (13%) and corruption (11%). Marcos' trust ratings dipped by 8 percentage points to 75% in the second quarter. Vice President Sara Duterte's ratings also saw a decline, highlighting widespread public discontent with the administration's handling of these critical issues. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, July 4
India, China foreign ministers agree to work on border issues. India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Kazakhstan to enhance talks on resolving their border issues. The ministers agreed that prolonging the current situation is detrimental to both countries and emphasized the need for stable relations and resuming normal exchanges. Both nations have fortified their positions since the 2020 military standoff. They agreed to increase meetings between diplomatic and military officials to resolve remaining issues promptly. Tanvi Mehta, Reuters, July 4
Vanuatu launches first documented foreign policy. Vanuatu's government launched its first official foreign policy document, focusing on sovereignty, economic growth, and international cooperation. Deputy Prime Minister Matai Seremaiah emphasized safeguarding national boundaries and promoting prosperity through trade and investment. Prime Minister Charlot Salwai highlighted the policy's role in outlining Vanuatu's international objectives, including climate action and human rights. The policy also stresses regional cooperation and the importance of alliances to give small nations a voice in global forums. PINA, July 4
Xi Jinping warns SCO to ‘resist external interference’ in latest veiled swipe at US. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members to resist external interference, referencing the US and its allies. Speaking at the SCO summit in Kazakhstan, Xi emphasized unity and regional security, pledging to boost economic and scientific cooperation. Russian President Vladimir Putin praised China-Russia relations, highlighting mutual respect and sovereignty. The SCO, initially focused on security, now includes 10 member states and several dialogue partners, expanding its influence. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, July 4
Long Form
US air moves in Japan more head fake than power punch. The US plans to spend $10 billion upgrading military aircraft in Japan to counter China's growing air power. The strategy includes replacing older jets with F-15EX and F-35 models and upgrading bases like Kadena and Misawa. Despite these efforts, aging aircraft, production delays, and China's rapidly advancing air fleet suggest the upgrades may be insufficient to maintain regional air superiority. Gabriel Honrada, Asia Times, July 5
Bridging the Divide: The EU’s Global Gateway Amidst Southeast Asian Skepticism. The EU's Global Gateway aims to strengthen ties with Southeast Asia by investing €300 billion in infrastructure, digital, energy, health, and education projects by 2027. Despite these ambitious plans, skepticism persists among Southeast Asians due to past governance and human rights disputes, along with perceived EU double standards in trade policies. The initiative seeks to offer an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative by improving transparency and sustainability. Thoriq Giffan Aditya, The Geopolitics, July 4
The time has come for an Australia-Indonesia military pact. Australia and Indonesia should form a military alliance to address common security threats, particularly from China. Despite past tensions and Indonesia's reluctance to label such a partnership as an "alliance," a strategic pact would help both nations counter China's maritime ambitions in Southeast Asia. This partnership would focus on anti-access/area denial strategies to prevent Chinese dominance. Sam Roggeveen, Lowy Institute, July 4
Eyes on India. India's relationship with Australia is evolving, driven by economic potential, democracy, defense, friendship, and diaspora connections. Despite past failures, a stronger commitment is needed. India's economic reforms and cultural richness are highlighted, with emphasis on learning from India's ancient civilization. The challenges India faces, including social, economic, and geopolitical issues, are also discussed. Mark Pierce, Lowy Institute, July 4
China's Achilles' heel—capital flight. China's vulnerability lies in capital flight, triggered by expectations of yuan depreciation. Large outflows occurred in 2015-2016 following a surprise devaluation. Although current outflows aren't as severe, the risk remains if household expectations shift due to factors like large U.S. tariffs. This could reignite large-scale capital flight, posing a threat to China's financial stability. Robin Brooks, Brookings, July 4
Unravelling of the Marcos-Duterte Dynastic Alliance. The resignation of Vice-President Sara Duterte from the Cabinet signals the end of the Marcos-Duterte political alliance, with a potential clash between these powerful political dynasties being possible. The 2025 elections may exacerbate this divide. The alliance, formed for the 2022 elections, dissolved due to policy differences and internal conflicts, with significant implications for both factions. Aries A. Arugay, FULCRUM, July 4
Sarawak Offers Malaysia Lessons in Managing Diversity. Sarawak exemplifies unity and harmony through its inclusive approach to managing diversity, contrasting with the politicization of race and religion in Peninsular Malaysia. The state's government, religious leaders, and civil society work together to maintain communal tolerance. Initiatives like the Unit for Other Religions (UNIFOR) support various faiths, reinforcing Sarawak's commitment to religious harmony and multiculturalism. Norshahril Saat and Lee Poh Onn, FULCRUM, July 4
The future for foreign companies in China looks increasingly finite. Foreign companies in China face growing challenges due to rising regulatory scrutiny, economic decoupling, and geopolitical tensions. Beijing's push for self-sufficiency and national security has led to increased barriers for foreign firms, making long-term prospects uncertain. Companies must navigate a complicated setting of compliance, shifting policies, and market restrictions. Louis Brennan, Nikkei Asia, July 4
Japan must grab its entrepreneurial moment. Japan has a unique opportunity to foster entrepreneurship amid economic shifts and technological advancements. By addressing structural barriers, promoting innovation, and supporting startups, Japan can stimulate economic growth and maintain global competitiveness. Embracing entrepreneurial culture and reforms is crucial for long-term success. Richard Katz, Nikkei Asia, July 4
Middle powers are the new architects of the world order. Middle powers like Japan, Australia, and South Korea are emerging as key players in shaping the global order. As the influence of traditional superpowers wanes, these countries are taking on more significant roles in regional and international affairs. They are leveraging diplomacy, economic strength, and strategic partnerships to promote stability and cooperation. Dino Patti Djalal, Nikkei Asia, July 4
China focuses on Europe, Southeast Asia with top-level visits. China is increasing its diplomatic efforts in Europe and Southeast Asia, stressing economic and political collaboration. These visits aim to strengthen ties, counter Western influence, and enhance China's role in regional and global affairs. High-level meetings are set to address trade, investment, and strategic partnerships. Yukio Tajima, Nikkei Asia, July 4
Tragedy shows China’s anti-Japan social media fire burns out of control. China's anti-Japan sentiment on social media has escalated, leading to uncontrollable and aggressive online behavior. This trend intensified following a tragedy involving Japanese citizens. The unchecked hostility is a reflection of deep-rooted historical grievances and nationalistic fervor, showing the challenges China faces in managing social media dynamics and international relations. Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, July 4
The United States tells China to kick rocks in Central Asia. The United States is working to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals by forming partnerships with Central Asian republics. Amid China's influence and recent restrictions on key mineral exports, the U.S. aims to secure a stable supply chain. The strategy involves offering technological support and undertaking critical projects to compete with China's established presence in the region. Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu, East Asia Forum, July 4
Indonesia’s home savings scheme set to strain workers and employers. Indonesia's new home savings scheme, part of a larger housing reform, mandates contributions from both workers and employers. The scheme aims to improve access to affordable housing but faces criticism for potentially overburdening employees and companies, particularly small businesses. Concerns include additional financial strain on low-wage workers and increased operational costs for employers. Rifky Pratama Wicaksono, East Asia Forum, July 4
Bloggers in the Crosshairs: The Complex Reality of Media Freedom in Uzbekistan. Despite promises from President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, bloggers in Uzbekistan face risks for criticizing the government. High-profile cases, including the imprisonment of several bloggers on charges like defamation and extortion, show the ongoing suppression of free speech. The government's inconsistent regulation allows it to target bloggers selectively, undermining Mirziyoyev's reformist image. Sher Khashimov and Asiya Kerimova, The Diplomat, July 4
Why Indonesia’s State-Owned Railway Company Is Taking On Debt. Indonesia’s state-owned railway company, Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI), is incurring debt to fund major projects like the Greater Jakarta Light Rail Transit system and the Chinese-backed high-speed rail from Jakarta to Bandung. Despite having $5 billion in assets and positive net income, KAI faces scrutiny due to large debts and project cost overruns. The Indonesian government supports KAI through subsidies and capital injections, drawing attention to the political and strategic importance of these infrastructure developments. James Guild, The Diplomat, July 4