China
PLA landing ship spotted off northern Taiwan ahead of island’s biggest military drill. A Chinese Type 072A tank landing ship was detected just 60 nautical miles northeast of Keelung, a major Taiwanese naval hub, days before Taiwan’s largest annual military exercise. Taiwan’s navy confirmed the vessel could threaten critical infrastructure and labeled the move as grey-zone harassment. Surveillance assets were deployed to monitor PLA operations across multiple maritime zones. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, July 2
Wang Yi tells top EU officials in Brussels to unite against ‘unilateralism and bullying’. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged EU leaders to align with China against “unilateralism and bullying,” implicitly criticizing the United States during meetings in Brussels with top EU officials. Discussions included China’s trade tensions with the EU, its stance on Russia, and agenda-setting for an upcoming summit with Xi Jinping. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, July 2
Japan
Japan invokes national interest as tariff talks with U.S. struggle. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reaffirmed Japan’s commitment to protecting national interests amid stalled trade talks with the U.S., as President Trump threatened tariffs as high as 35% on Japanese goods. Ishiba emphasized Japan’s investment in the U.S. and vowed to support domestic industries if auto exports decline. Makiko Yamazaki and Satoshi Sugiyama, Reuters, July 2
Campaigning begins in Japan for House of Councillors election. Japan opened official campaigning for the July 20 House of Councillors election, a pivotal test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government. The LDP-Komeito coalition aims to retain majority control by winning at least 50 of the 125 contested seats. The election is influenced by inflation concerns and U.S. trade tensions, with parties offering handouts or tax cuts to ease living costs. Kyodo News, July 3
South Korea
Lee vows to improve relations with N. Korea based on cooperation with U.S. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung pledged to enhance inter-Korean ties grounded in coordination with the United States, while acknowledging ongoing distrust makes dialogue difficult. He cited the suspension of loudspeaker broadcasts as a potential opening and dismissed perceptions of reunification as forced absorption. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, July 3
Nat'l Assembly set to vote on PM nominee. South Korea’s National Assembly will vote Thursday on Prime Minister nominee Kim Min-seok amid opposition from the People Power Party over his wealth and family ties. The ruling Democratic Party, holding 167 of 298 seats, can approve the nomination unilaterally. The session will also address proposed revisions to the Commercial Act and Martial Law Act. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, July 3
India
U.S., India push for trade pact after Trump strikes deal with Vietnam, sources say. Trade negotiators from the U.S. and India are working toward a tariff-reducing agreement ahead of President Trump’s July 9 deadline, though disputes remain over U.S. agricultural and dairy goods. India resists concessions on genetically modified crops but may lower tariffs on fruits, medical devices, and energy products. David Lawder and Manoj Kumar, Reuters, July 2
Thailand
Foreign ministry slams Hun Manet comments. Thailand’s Foreign Ministry condemned Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet for remarks suggesting a leadership change in Bangkok, calling them a violation of the ASEAN Charter and international norms. Spokesman Nikorndej Balankura said the comments, made after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension, undermined bilateral ties. Poramet Tangsathaporn, Bangkok Post, July 3
Debate against govt now 'under review'. The Bhumjaithai Party confirmed that the no-confidence motion against Thailand’s government remains under review following Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension. Party spokeswoman Nan Boonthida Somchai said legal consultations are ongoing, with no consensus yet among opposition parties. The suspension has shifted political dynamics, and the proposed censure debate under Article 151 of the constitution may be postponed. Bangkok Post, July 3
Vietnam
President Trump announces trade deal with Vietnam that will let U.S. goods into the country duty-free. President Donald Trump revealed a trade pact allowing U.S. goods to enter Vietnam duty-free while imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports and 40% on transshipped goods. The deal follows Trump’s 90-day suspension of proposed 46% tariffs and includes a $1.5 billion Trump Organization golf resort project. Analysts view the deal as favoring U.S. leverage over smaller economies. Paul Wiseman, Aniruddha Ghosal, Associated Press, July 2
Trump says he will put 20% tariff on Vietnam's exports. President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam that imposes a 20% tariff on many of its exports, avoiding the originally planned 46% rate. Goods transshipped through Vietnam from other countries will face a 40% duty. In return, Vietnam will grant U.S. products, including large-engine cars, preferential market access. The pact boosts Trump’s tariff strategy ahead of the July 9 deadline. Trevor Hunnicutt and Khanh Vu, Reuters, July 2
Myanmar
Junta’s recruitment spreads fear as young men seized from homes and workplaces. Myanmar’s military is forcibly conscripting young men under a revived 2024 mandatory service law, causing widespread fear and dislocation. Families report sudden abductions from homes and workplaces, with recruits given little warning. In Naypyitaw, officials posing as relatives detained a groom-to-be with official papers. The campaign has intensified since early 2025. Aung Zay, Myanmar Now, July 2
Dying in jail, Myanmar’s political prisoners a ‘stain on ASEAN’s conscience’. Lawmakers across Southeast Asia urged ASEAN to prioritize the release of Myanmar’s political prisoners during the July 8–9 ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting. Over 29,000 people remain imprisoned since the 2021 coup, with reports of torture, abuse, and 130 deaths in custody, including 50 during a March earthquake. Critics say ASEAN’s failure to act enables impunity. The Irrawaddy, July 2
Cambodia
Singapore PM Wong’s brief visit to Cambodia strengthens relations and cooperation. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong described his one-day trip to Cambodia as a meaningful opportunity to reaffirm bilateral ties and explore collaboration in renewable energy, carbon credits, and food security. He emphasized restraint along the Cambodia-Thailand border and urged ASEAN unity in preserving regional peace and integration. Wong met King Norodom Sihamoni, Senate President Hun Sen, and Prime Minister Hun Manet. Khmer Times, July 3
Philippines
Trial timing depends on House, court says. The Senate impeachment court will not proceed with Vice President Sara Duterte’s trial until the House of Representatives certifies its intent to pursue the case in the 20th Congress. Although the articles of impeachment were transmitted in February, procedural questions delayed proceedings. The court reconvenes July 29 but awaits House compliance. Bernadette E. Tamayo and Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, July 3
Impeachment court nixes early swearing-in of new senator-judges. The Philippine Senate impeachment court rejected a proposal to swear in newly elected senators as judges before a new Senate president is chosen, citing legal prudence. The court, led by Chiz Escudero, emphasized the need to avoid procedural disputes that could hinder Vice President Sara Duterte’s trial. Maila Ager, Philippine Daily Inquirer, July 3
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia, Indonesia sign several deals worth around $27 billion, state news agency says. Saudi Arabia and Indonesia signed multiple agreements totaling approximately $27 billion, spanning clean energy, petrochemicals, crude supply, and mineral resources. The deals were reached during President Prabowo Subianto’s visit and include planned investments potentially reaching $10 billion. Trade between the countries has totaled $31.5 billion over five years. Jaidaa Taha, Muhammad Al Gebaly and Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters, July 2
Bangladesh
Bangladesh ex-PM Hasina in absentia gets six months in jail for contempt of court. Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal sentenced ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to six months in jail for contempt, citing a leaked recording where she said having 227 cases gave her “a licence to kill 227 people.” The verdict was delivered in absentia. Hasina fled to India following student-led protests that toppled her government. Dhaka bureau, Reuters, July 2
Singapore
Singapore and Cambodia to deepen partnerships in renewable energy, carbon markets: PM Wong. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong announced deeper Singapore-Cambodia collaboration in clean energy, carbon markets, and food security following talks with Prime Minister Hun Manet. Both leaders agreed to enhance regional grid connectivity and cross-border carbon credit projects. Wong stressed ASEAN unity and peaceful dispute resolution amid Cambodia-Thailand tensions. Ng Hong Siang, Channel News Asia, July 3
Oceania
Fiji says China military base not welcome as Pacific islands steer between superpowers. Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka stated Fiji would reject any Chinese military base in the Pacific, warning it would heighten regional tensions. Rabuka emphasized respecting sovereignty and advocated for an “Ocean of Peace” treaty to counter coercion. While China expands its influence through security pacts and coast guard engagement, Rabuka insists development cooperation should not alter ties with Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. Kirsty Needham, Reuters, July 2
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan accelerates development of cross-border trade hubs. Kazakhstan is advancing five major cross-border trade and logistics hubs to strengthen regional cooperation. Key projects include the Alatau Industrial Complex near Kyrgyzstan, the Central Asia Cooperation Center with Uzbekistan, and the Caspian Hub at Aktau port. Challenges persist at the Khorgos and Eurasia hubs, prompting a government directive for strategic development plans by August 1. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, July 2
Northeast Asia
China’s Trump playbook pays off, for now. China is leveraging President Trump's transactional foreign policy and internal U.S. polarization to strengthen its global position, countering U.S. pressure through calibrated responses and prolonged negotiations. Despite heightened tariffs and tech restrictions, Beijing is exploiting America's declining international credibility, to present itself as a champion of multilateralism and stability. The perception of U.S. unreliability has enabled China to increase its global favorability, even surpassing that of the U.S. in recent polls. With a strategic mix of resilience and opportunism, China is reinforcing domestic unity and pursuing its long-term goal of reshaping the global order. Helena Legarda, MERICS, July 2
North Korea’s Plastic Surgery Law: A Socialist Beauty. North Korea’s 2016 Plastic Surgery Treatment Law, quietly passed and later amended, authorizes elective cosmetic procedures while enforcing strict regulatory oversight. The law, discovered via a North Korean smartphone, allows surgeries for aesthetic purposes but confines operations to qualified professionals in designated hospitals. It prohibits identity-altering procedures, including complete facial changes and fingerprint modifications, likely due to security concerns. Surgeries that contradict socialist values, such as eyebrow tattoos, are also banned. Though elective surgery is rarely mentioned in domestic media, reports indicate growing demand and underground practices, sometimes leading to fatal consequences. The law frames cosmetic surgery as part of a state-driven mission to improve citizens' appearance in line with socialist ideals. Martyn Williams, 38 North, July 2
China’s AI Sweep Fizzles. China's Cyberspace Administration’s latest “Clear and Bright” campaign targeting AI misuse shut down 3,500 mini apps and purged millions of illegal content pieces, but key issues persist. Despite enforcement efforts, such as removing “one-click undress” tools and face-swapping apps, many tools remain accessible via Telegram, raising questions about the crackdown’s effectiveness. Private platforms like Tencent and Baidu took action against unauthorized AI tutorials and deepfakes, yet ideological control was also a motive, evidenced by censorship of ChatGPT-related content. Sophisticated apps enabling voice cloning and synthetic media continue to circulate, showing that even with strict policies, China's AI regulation remains porous in practice. Alex Colville, China Media Project, July 2
Has the China Free Trade Agreement Paid Off for Serbia? One year into Serbia’s free trade agreement with China, trade volumes have surged but benefits remain uneven. While exports rose to $1.9 billion in 2024 and total bilateral trade hit $7.4 billion, 93 percent of Serbian exports to China were copper and related products, mostly tied to Chinese-owned operations. Promised diversification and increased market access have yet to materialize; key products like dried plums and blueberries remain marginal in export rankings. Additionally, anticipated foreign investment and relocation of production to Serbia to exploit Chinese market access have not occurred. The FTA has strengthened economic ties but has not transformed Serbia’s export profile or alleviated its trade imbalance. Stefan Vladisavljev, China Observers, July 3
Southeast Asia
Regulating Malaysia’s ‘buy now, pay later’ market. Malaysia's booming 'buy now, pay later' (BNPL) sector, now serving over 5 million users, has prompted urgent regulatory action amid rising household debt totaling RM1.6 trillion. Bank Negara Malaysia, in collaboration with government agencies, introduced draft regulations banning flat-rate interest practices such as the Rule of 78s and requiring lenders to assess borrowers’ financial capacity. Measures include shortening personal loan tenures and introducing the Consumer Credit Bill 2025, which mandates licensing and stricter standards for credit providers. While BNPL growth, projected at 15.1% annually, reflects consumer demand and digital innovation, unchecked expansion risks financial instability. The reforms aim to balance consumer access with responsible lending to curb overborrowing and safeguard economic health. Shankaran Nambiar, East Asia Forum, July 3
Paetongtarn’s Suspension Spells the Collapse of Her Government. Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on July 1 following a leaked phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, triggering a political crisis that threatens to dismantle her administration. The fallout includes Bhumjaithai’s withdrawal from the coalition, protests in Bangkok, and increased risk of defections by remaining allies. The scandal’s gravity and the court’s 7-2 vote signal likely removal, even as opposition to Paetongtarn hardens. With no clear successor and pressing international issues (U.S. trade talks and a Cambodian border dispute), Thailand faces potential political paralysis. The collapse could also unravel the fragile compromise between Thaksin Shinawatra’s faction and the conservative establishment. Napon Jatusripitak, FULCRUM, July 3
The ‘First Lady’ Who Redefines Vietnam’s Diplomacy and Politics. Ngo Phuong Ly, wife of Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam, is reshaping Vietnam’s public diplomacy through her active and high-profile presence during state visits and official events. Drawing parallels to Peng Liyuan of China, Ly’s involvement marks a departure from the traditional invisibility of Vietnamese leaders’ spouses. With a background in the arts and media, Ly leverages cultural diplomacy to better To Lam’s image, balancing his reputation as a strongman. Her role subtly challenges patriarchal norms and improves Vietnam’s soft power. As the 2026 CPV Congress nears, Ly’s visibility may prove pivotal in solidifying To Lam’s leadership amid internal consolidation and external balancing strategies. Le Hong Hiep,
FULCRUM, July 2
South Asia
India must reimagine its Pakistan strategy. India is urged to move from reactive tactics to strategic insulation in its dealings with Pakistan, reducing Islamabad’s influence over its foreign and security policies. While Pakistan continues asymmetric provocations, including terrorism and nuclear brinkmanship, India's over-engagement amplifies its rival's relevance. Instead, India should adopt diplomatic minimalism, move from performative retaliation to quiet deterrence, and exclude Pakistan from regional platforms unless substantive reforms occur. Emphasis should be placed on integrating Kashmir through economic and political inclusion to counter Pakistani narratives. India’s strategic focus must prioritize broader challenges like China and Indo-Pacific geopolitics. By de-hyphenating its Pakistan approach, India can pursue its global aspirations without being trapped in cyclical subcontinental tensions. Sanchari Ghosh, East Asia Forum, July 2