China
China, U.S. to extend tariff pause at Sweden talks by another 90 days: sources. Beijing and Washington are expected to prolong their tariff suspension by 90 days during trade talks in Stockholm beginning Monday. The extension will prevent either side from imposing new tariffs as negotiations continue. Discussions will address key issues like China’s industrial overcapacity and U.S. fentanyl-related tariffs. Xiaofei Xu, Ji Siqi, Khushboo Razdan, and Amber Wong, South China Morning Post, July 25
U.S., China to resume tariff talks in effort to extend truce. Senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators will meet in Stockholm to extend a tariff truce before the August 12 deadline, aiming to prevent duties from surging past 100%. Talks led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng will focus on economic disputes, including tech export controls and trade imbalances. A potential Trump–Xi summit may hinge on progress. David Lawder, Reuters, July 27
Japan
Pressure mounts on Ishiba to resign, but he remains defiant. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is resisting calls to step down despite intensifying pressure from within the Liberal Democratic Party after its poor Upper House election results. Party factions, including the Youth Division, are demanding accountability, while a petition for a joint plenary meeting to force leadership changes nears the required threshold. The Asahi Shimbun, July 26
SDF request led to nuclear threat scenario in Japan–US exercise. During a 2024 joint command post exercise, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces requested that the U.S. military issue a nuclear threat in response to a simulated warning from China during a Taiwan invasion scenario. The U.S. initially declined but later agreed after repeated appeals from Japanese commanders. It was the first time China was named as a hypothetical adversary in the Keen Edge drill. Kyodo News, July 27
South Korea
Lee’s approval rating falls for 2nd straight week to 61.5%. President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating dropped to 61.5%, down 0.7% from the previous week, according to a Realmeter poll. The decline was attributed to controversies over his personnel appointments and recent natural disasters. The negative rating rose to 33%. A separate poll showed the Democratic Party holding steady at 50.8%, while opposition support rose to 29%. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, July 28
Yoon’s insurrection trial on hold as courts begin summer recess. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s criminal trial over his failed martial law imposition is paused as South Korean courts enter a two-week summer recess through August 8. The Seoul Central District Court has held 12 hearings; Yoon, citing poor health, has missed the last three. He remains in detention and faces a separate trial on August 19 over abuse of power and records violations. Jung Min-kyung, The Korea Herald, July 27
North Korea
Powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim rejects outreach by South’s new president. Kim Yo Jong declared North Korea has no interest in engaging with South Korea under President Lee Jae Myung, despite his efforts to halt propaganda broadcasts and repatriate North Korean defectors. She criticized Seoul’s military alliance with the U.S. and its participation in joint drills. North Korea now prioritizes ties with Russia and has removed peaceful reunification from its constitution. Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press, July 28
Russia starts first Moscow–Pyongyang passenger flights in decades. Russia resumed direct passenger flights to North Korea for the first time since the mid-1990s, with Nordwind Airlines operating monthly Boeing 777 flights from Sheremetyevo Airport to Pyongyang. The flights, priced from $563, follow the June revival of a 10-day rail route. Lidia Kelly, Reuters, July 26
India
Modi joins Maldives independence day celebrations, signals easing tensions amid China rivalry. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the Maldives’ 60th Independence Day in Malé, announcing a $565 million credit line and launching free trade talks during his two-day visit. The trip marks a thaw in ties with President Mohamed Muizzu’s pro-China administration. Agreements were signed across multiple sectors. Krishan Francis, Associated Press, July 26
Thailand
Thai and Cambodian leaders head to Malaysia for peace talks. Leaders from Thailand and Cambodia traveled to Malaysia for ceasefire negotiations amid their deadliest border clashes in over a decade. Over 30 people, including more than 20 civilians, have been killed and 200,000 displaced since fighting reignited. Talks are chaired by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim with U.S. and Chinese involvement. Panarat Thepgumpanat, Panu Wongcha-um, Devjyot Ghoshal, Chantha Lach, Danial Azhar, and Kanishka Singh, Reuters, July 27
Phumtham reiterates demand for Cambodia’s sincere troop withdrawal. Thai Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai urged Cambodia to withdraw its forces with “sincerity” as a condition for ceasefire talks, rejecting third-party mediation while remaining open to direct dialogue. He confirmed over 130,000 civilians had been evacuated and emphasized that Thai military responses targeted only Cambodian military sites. The Nation, July 27
Laos
Laos, Cambodia agree to step up cooperation. Laos and Cambodia agreed to expand collaboration across trade, security, energy, and education under their Comprehensive and Long-Lasting Strategic Partnership during a July 24–26 visit by Lao Foreign Minister Thongsavanh Phomvihane. Talks with Cambodian counterpart Prak Sokhonn emphasized border security, transnational crime, and legal cooperation. Vientiane Times, July 28
Cambodia
Cambodia ready to cooperate with Laos in investigating Thailand’s accusation. Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defence rejected Thailand’s claim that it deliberately fired projectiles into Laos and expressed full readiness to cooperate with the Lao People’s Army in a transparent investigation. Spokesperson Lieutenant General Maly Socheata called the allegation false and malicious, asserting Cambodia has not violated any neighbor’s sovereignty and emphasizing a commitment to regional peace. Khmer Times, July 28
Philippines
House to challenge high court ruling. The Philippine House of Representatives will seek reconsideration of a Supreme Court decision that declared its impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte unconstitutional. House spokesperson Princess Abante argued the ruling misrepresented procedural facts, including claims that the February 5 impeachment was not subject to a plenary vote. Reina C. Tolentino and Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, July 27
Escudero remains Senate president. Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero retained his position as Senate president with support from 19 of 24 senators as the 20th Congress opened. His only challenger, Senator Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, received five votes, including his own, while Escudero also voted for Sotto. Escudero’s leadership was retained amid internal disputes within the chamber during politically turbulent times. Maila Ager, Philippine Daily Inquirer, July 27
Malaysia
Rubio says U.S. officials are in Malaysia to help in Cambodia–Thailand talks. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that State Department officials are in Malaysia supporting mediation efforts between Cambodia and Thailand as border clashes escalate. Talks begin Monday amid the worst fighting in over a decade, with more than 30 killed and over 200,000 displaced. Kanishka Singh, Reuters, July 27
Thousands rally in Malaysia to call for PM Anwar’s resignation. Over 18,000 protesters gathered in Kuala Lumpur demanding Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim step down, citing rising living costs, tax hikes, and alleged judicial interference. Demonstrators criticized new sales taxes and subsidy reforms, while former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad accused Anwar of political persecution. Rozanna Latiff and Mandy Leong, Reuters, July 26
Taiwan
Taiwan move to recall opposition lawmakers fails. Taiwanese opposition lawmakers from the Kuomintang party survived the island’s largest-ever recall election, defeating efforts by civic groups and President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party to unseat 24 legislators accused of being pro-China. The failed recall, seen by the government as tainted by Chinese interference, dealt a setback to the DPP’s bid to retake legislative control. Yimou Lee, Reuters, July 26
Northeast Asia
The Great Recall: Democratic Progress or Political Paralysis?
Taiwan’s Grand Recall Movement, targeting 31 opposition legislators, has become the largest mass recall effort in its democratic history, igniting debate over civic accountability versus political weaponization. Triggered by controversial budget cuts and legislative overreach by the KMT-TPP alliance, the recalls reflect public backlash against perceived erosion of democratic norms and rising alignment with Beijing. Although grassroots campaigners frame the recalls as a constitutional tool to restore accountability, the ruling DPP’s involvement blurs civic activism with party strategy. Critics warn the movement risks deepening polarization, damaging institutional trust, and entrenching partisan conflict. The outcome may shape Taiwan’s democratic resilience amid domestic instability and external geopolitical threats. China Observers, July 25
Japan’s Upper House Election Delivers Political Uncertainty With Big Implications. Japan’s upper house election resulted in a fragmented outcome that weakens Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s leadership without creating a clear path to stable governance. The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition fell short of a majority, complicating efforts to form a strong government, while opposition cooperation remains unlikely due to ideological divides. The emergence of the populist Sanseito party, which gained 14 seats through xenophobic and conspiracy-laden rhetoric, marks a sharp turn in Japanese politics, raising concerns over future democratic stability. With U.S. pressure mounting on defense and trade, and domestic disinformation on the rise, Japan faces a critical juncture where political instability could erode its capacity for international leadership. Phillip Lipscy, East Asia Forum, July 27
LDP’s Historic Electoral Defeat Upends Japan’s Politics. Japan’s July 2025 upper house election dealt a historic blow to the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition, stripping it of majorities in both houses for the first time in postwar history. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba now leads a weakened minority government amid economic discontent, scandals, and unresolved U.S. trade tensions. Inflation and stagnant wages dominated voter concerns, with Ishiba’s unpopular stimulus proposals falling flat. Populist party Sanseito surged, gaining 15 seats and appealing to disaffected voters with anti-globalization rhetoric. With opposition forces fragmented and ideological divisions deep, Japan faces legislative gridlock and political instability. The outcome reflects deep voter frustration and casts doubt on the LDP’s long-term viability. Purnendra Jain, East Asia Forum, July 27
Politics on a Plate: How Taiwan’s Presidential Banquets Mirror a Shifting Identity. Taiwan’s presidential banquet menus have evolved from showcasing mainland Chinese culinary heritage to celebrating local Taiwanese flavors, symbolizing the island’s ongoing identity transformation. Under the Chiang leadership, dishes like Yangzhou fried rice reflected Chinese cultural roots. Later leaders, including Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen, embraced localization by featuring native ingredients and regional dishes. This culinary change parallels broader political efforts to assert Taiwan’s distinct identity, such as education reforms and cultural initiatives. Yet, mainland China’s “soft influence” persists through popular foods, media, and consumer goods embraced by younger Taiwanese. This silent cultural convergence contrasts with political tensions, revealing a dual reality: official distancing alongside informal integration. Sim Tze Wei, ThinkChina, July 25
China’s Semiconductor Investment Defies Economics—But Makes Perfect Strategic Sense. China’s $48 billion expansion of its National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund highlights its resolve to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency despite enormous economic inefficiencies. With domestic manufacturers like SMIC trailing behind global leaders in yield and cost, the push appears irrational by commercial standards. However, Beijing views semiconductors as essential to national sovereignty in an AI-driven era, responding to U.S.-led export controls that weaponize China’s technological dependencies. The strategy prioritizes resilience over profitability, aiming to secure China’s position in future global tech competition. This effort mirrors China’s earlier industrial ascents and is reminiscent of its movement toward long-term strategic autonomy. Andy Liao, Sino-Southeast Initiative, July 26
China’s Global Security Initiative: Not About Picking Sides. China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI) aims to deepen regional security cooperation in Southeast Asia through practical, issue-based collaboration rather than forming military alliances or rival blocs. Beijing has prioritized joint operations with regional governments on transnational threats like cyber scams and drug trafficking, as well as humanitarian work such as demining in Cambodia and ceasefire mediation in Myanmar. Despite regional skepticism China positions the GSI as a complement to ASEAN-led mechanisms, not a competing framework. Its continued engagement in inclusive forums like ADMM-Plus and the East Asia Summit underscores a commitment to multilateralism and regional stability. Qian Yuming, FULCRUM, July 25
Southeast Asia
Indonesia at a Discount. Once a vocal advocate of non-alignment, Indonesia now trades sovereignty for temporary relief, exemplified by its acceptance of a 19% US tariff in exchange for a $15 billion LNG deal, $4.5 billion in grain imports, and 50 Boeing aircraft. While President Prabowo projects nationalist strength, international compliance undercuts this image, showing a pattern of reactive, not strategic, diplomacy. Rather than using its geopolitical and resource advantages to negotiate assertively like Brazil, Thailand, or Vietnam, Indonesia opts for symbolic gestures such as joining BRICS without gaining real leverage. Tariffs function less as economic tools and more as geopolitical pressure, reinforcing unipolar dynamics under the illusion of a multipolar world. Concessions masquerade as pragmatism while agency erodes behind nationalist performance. Virdika Rizky Utama, Lowy Institute, July 25
The Real Reasons for the Thai-Cambodia Conflict. Though framed as a territorial dispute, the Thai-Cambodia conflict is fueled primarily by Thailand’s internal political struggle, as military and royal elites exploit nationalism to weaken democratic rivals. The escalation coincides with efforts to dismantle the Shinawatra political dynasty, especially following a leaked call that discredited Paetongtarn Shinawatra. This provides an opportunity for elites to isolate Thaksin Shinawatra and restore full military dominance. Cambodia’s role and retaliation are secondary to Thailand’s internal power consolidation. Rising public trust in the military amid parliamentary chaos raises fears of another coup, with top generals reportedly eyeing a new constitution. The border conflict serves as a convenient justification for elite interests under the guise of national defense. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, July 27