Asia Daily: July 24, 2024
News
US looking to bolster Philippines' ability to operate in its waters. The United States plans to enhance the Philippines' maritime capabilities, according to a senior White House official. This initiative precedes a meeting of defense and foreign ministers from both countries. US officials welcomed the recent Philippines-China agreement to ease South China Sea tensions but stressed the importance of implementation. US Secretaries Blinken and Austin will visit Manila to discuss security support, including the use of new military sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. Michael Martina and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, July 24
Japanese population sees biggest drop on record in 15th year of decline. Japan's population decreased by 801,000 in 2023, the largest drop ever recorded, marking the 15th consecutive year of decline. The population now stands at 122.42 million. Contributing factors include low birth rates and an aging population. Tokyo was the only area to see a population increase, while other regions experienced declines. The government is focusing on measures to address this demographic challenge. Kyodo News, July 24
China to help Kazakhstan plant artificial forests on the Aral Sea. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources, Erlan Nysanbayev, met with scientists from China’s Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography to discuss creating artificial forest plantations on the Aral Sea's dried base. The initiative involves planting saxaul shrubs to combat environmental degradation. This collaboration aims to mitigate the effects of toxic dust storms, which significantly impact the region. By 2025, Kazakhstan plans to plant 1.1 million hectares of saxaul on the former seabed. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 24
Philippines and Singapore broaden defense ties with a new agreement. The Philippines and Singapore signed a defense pact to enhance military engagement, focusing on areas like military education and anti-terrorism. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. and Singapore's Ng Eng Hen signed the memorandum coinciding with the anniversary of their diplomatic ties. The agreement aims to foster closer cooperation without detailing large-scale joint combat exercises, instead emphasizing limited drills and humanitarian responses. This move is part of the Philippines' broader strategy to strengthen security alliances amid regional tensions. Jim Gomez, AP News, July 24
Penghu plays host to anti-landing drill on day 3 of exercises. The Han Kuang military exercises on Penghu Islands included an anti-landing drill featuring US-made Stinger and Javelin missile systems, along with 155mm cannons, 105mm guns, and 120mm mortars. M60A3 tanks and CM-21 armored vehicles advanced on the battlefield. Planned air and naval drills were canceled due to Typhoon Gaemi. Similar exercises were held on the Matsu Islands, while those in Kinmen were called off as merchant vessels sought shelter from the typhoon. Taipei Times, July 24
Ukraine’s foreign minister seeking ‘common ground’ with China in talks on ending war with Russia. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou to discuss finding common ground to end the war with Russia. Kuleba emphasized that a just peace in Ukraine aligns with China’s strategic interests. China, which maintains close ties with Russia, has advocated for a resolution considering both sides' interests. Kuleba aims to secure Chinese participation in an upcoming peace conference to facilitate a favorable settlement for Ukraine. Ken Moritsugu, AP News, July 24
U.S. sanctions China-based individuals, entities accused of supporting N.K. missile, space programs. The U.S. sanctioned six individuals and five entities in China for aiding North Korea's ballistic missile and space programs. This action follows North Korea's continued use of ballistic missile technology, violating U.N. resolutions. The sanctioned entities include Beijing Sanshunda Electronics Science and Technology Co. LTD., and Shenzhen City Mean Well Electronics Co. LTD. The U.S. emphasizes its commitment to countering sanctions evasion and enforcing international measures against North Korea. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, July 24
China’s critical third-stage rocket engine passes test for crewed moon mission. China has successfully tested the YF-75E engine of its Long March-10 rocket, a key step toward landing astronauts on the moon by 2030. The engine, which burns liquid hydrogen and oxygen, was tested at a new facility capable of simulating high-altitude conditions. The Long March-10, comparable to SpaceX's Falcon Heavy, will be used in dual launches for the moon mission, involving the Mengzhou spacecraft and Lanyue landing craft. Ling Xin, South China Morning Post, July 24
Tajikistan: World Bank report voices concern about influence of state-connected companies on economy. A World Bank report has raised concerns about the significant influence of state-connected companies on Tajikistan's economy. The report highlights issues such as limited competition and the dominant role these companies play in key sectors. This situation potentially hinders economic growth and development in the country. The World Bank recommends reforms to promote transparency, reduce monopolistic practices, and encourage private sector participation. Eurasianet, July 24
Japan PM Kishida eyes legislation to boost domestic chip production. Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is considering new legislation to enhance domestic semiconductor production. This initiative aims to strengthen Japan's economic security and technological competitiveness amid global supply chain disruptions. The proposed measures include financial support for chip manufacturers and incentives to attract foreign talent. Kishida emphasized the strategic importance of securing a stable supply of semiconductors for various industries. Kyodo News, July 24
Vietnam attends ASEAN meetings within AMM-57 framework in Laos. Vietnam participated in ASEAN meetings held as part of the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting (AMM-57) framework in Laos. The meetings focused on strengthening regional cooperation, addressing security and economic challenges, and promoting sustainable development. Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh attended the sessions, emphasizing Vietnam's commitment to ASEAN's unity and centrality. Vietnam News, July 24
Philippines says has 'arrangement' with Beijing on South China Sea, but no ship inspections. The Philippines has reached a "provisional arrangement" with China regarding resupply missions to its troops on the grounded vessel Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal. Philippine national security adviser Eduardo Ano clarified that the agreement does not permit Chinese on-site inspections of Philippine ships. The arrangement aims to ease tensions and prevent skirmishes. Details of the agreement remain confidential unless both parties agree to disclose them. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, July 24
China ships patrol off Palawan. Chinese coast guard and militia ships are patrolling off Palawan, near the disputed Spratly Islands. The Philippine military has observed increased Chinese activity in the area, which is believed to be part of China's efforts to assert its claims over the South China Sea. These patrols are seen as a challenge to the Philippines' sovereignty and have prompted the Philippine government to file diplomatic protests against China. The increased Chinese presence has raised tensions in the region, with both countries claiming rights over the contested waters. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, July 24
Vice FMs of S. Korea, China hold 1st strategic talks in over 2 yrs. South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun and China's Ma Zhaoxu met in Seoul to discuss bilateral cooperation on regional and global issues. This was the first high-level talk since December 2021, prompted by increasing North Korea-Russia cooperation. Topics included Korean Peninsula peace efforts, regional security, and enhancing bilateral relations. Seoul expressed concerns over North Korea-Russia deals and urged China to support stability and denuclearization. Choi Kyong-ae, Yonhap News Agency, July 24
China may take ‘tough measures’ in Sabina Shoal stand-off with Philippines, analysts say. Beijing might respond forcefully if Manila maintains its stance on the disputed Sabina Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands. Tensions have risen following accusations from the Philippines of China's island-building attempts and intimidation tactics. China denies these allegations and claims lawful actions. Analysts suggest potential Chinese retaliation, while the Philippines remains firm, supported by defense agreements with countries like Japan and the US. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, July 24
Myanmar junta foreign minister meets Chinese official in Yunnan. Myanmar's junta-appointed Foreign Minister Than Swe met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Yunnan to discuss bilateral cooperation and regional stability. China reaffirmed its support for Myanmar's peace and development efforts and emphasized the importance of maintaining stability along their shared border. The meeting highlighted China's strategic interests in Myanmar, including ongoing infrastructure projects and trade routes. Both sides agreed on the need to enhance cooperation in various sectors, including trade, agriculture, and energy. The Irrawaddy, July 24
Pacific Islands Forum leaders endorse high-level mission to New Caledonia. Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) leaders have approved a high-level mission to New Caledonia to address the ongoing political situation. Prime Minister of Cook Islands and PIF Chair Mark Brown stated the mission aims to support de-escalation of violence and promote dialogue among parties. The Forum Ministerial Committee, led by the Prime Ministers of Cook Islands, Fiji, and Tonga, will facilitate the mission in August. Cooperation with the French Government is crucial for the mission's success. PINA, July 24
Jokowi to start working from IKN Nusantara on July 28. President Joko Widodo will begin working from Indonesia's new capital, IKN Nusantara, on July 28, 2024. During his stay, he will inaugurate the Karangjoang-KKT Kariangau toll road, assess the progress of key infrastructure, and inspect the development of the Presidential Palace and other vital facilities. The move is part of the government's effort to decentralize administrative functions from Jakarta and boost economic growth in the new capital region. ANTARA News, July 24
Govt targets major growth for industries in 13th Plan. The Bhutanese government aims to increase the manufacturing sector’s GDP contribution from Nu 24.61 billion in 2023 to Nu 43.59 billion by 2029, targeting a 10% average annual growth. Challenges include market access, financing, and skilled labor shortages. The government plans to address these through policy interventions, improved infrastructure, and revised FDI policies. The 13th Plan focuses on promoting manufacturing industries, developing dry ports and industrial parks, and enhancing public-private partnerships to foster industrial growth. Thukten Zangpo, Kuensel, July 24
Mongolia-U.S. comprehensive strategic dialogue held for the first time. Mongolia and the United States held their first Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue in Washington, D.C. on July 23, 2024. The Mongolian delegation was led by Foreign Minister Battsetseg Batmunkh, and the U.S. delegation was headed by Deputy Secretary of State Kurt M. Campbell. The dialogue included sessions on politics, defense, trade, education, and cultural cooperation. Both countries committed to enhancing cooperation in critical minerals, energy, air transportation, space exploration, and digital development. Khankhuu J., Montsame, July 24
Long Form
Indonesia Must Rethink Its Defence Cooperation with China. Indonesia should reassess its defense cooperation with China amid South China Sea tensions. The country faces the challenge of balancing its economic ties with China and its security concerns, particularly with the increasing assertiveness of China's military activities in the South China Sea. To counterbalance China's influence, Indonesia has been strengthening its military ties with the United States, which has been highlighted by the large-scale joint military exercise, Garuda Shield. However, Indonesia must deal with its non-aligned foreign policy carefully to avoid being caught between the competing interests of major powers. Alfin Basundoro, East Asia Forum, July 24
Solomon Islands in Safe Hands with Australia. Australia has been playing a crucial role in ensuring the stability and security of the Solomon Islands. This partnership is marked by extensive collaboration, especially in security and economic development. Australia has provided significant support through the Australian Federal Police and the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI). This involvement has been pivotal in maintaining order and fostering economic growth in the region, reflecting a robust and reliable partnership. Richard Herr, East Asia Forum, July 24
Don’t Expect Trump 2.0 to Be So Tough on China. Despite his previous stance, Donald Trump is unlikely to be as aggressive toward China in a potential second term. His administration showed inconsistency in policies, with Trump often focusing on trade deals and maintaining a personal rapport with Xi Jinping. The focus on military spending and strategic competition was more about distinguishing his administration from predecessors rather than a consistent strategy. Trump's approach leaned towards bilateral agreements rather than confronting Chinese aggression. Ben Scott, Lowy Institute, July 24
Could BIMSTEC be the Answer to the Myanmar Question? The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) may play a crucial role in addressing the Myanmar crisis. With its newly adopted charter and increased activity, BIMSTEC can provide a platform for regional cooperation, especially among Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, and India. This organization could complement ASEAN's efforts, focusing on transnational crime and refugee repatriation. India is pushing for BIMSTEC's involvement to enhance regional stability and manage the Rohingya refugee situation. Arkoprabho Hazra, Lowy Institute, July 24
The Indian Navy’s Humanitarian Role: Strategic Soft Power in Action. The Indian Navy has greatly improved India's soft power through effective humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations. These efforts have strengthened India’s strategic and diplomatic ties globally. Notable operations include responses to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, and various missions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Enhancing HADR capabilities remains crucial for maintaining and boosting India’s influence and goodwill. S.N. Ghormade, The Diplomat, July 24
Going for Gold: What North Korea Stands to Gain from Hacking the Olympics. North Korea could leverage cyberattacks on the Olympics to raise funds, steal sensitive information, and boost its international standing. As global attention focuses on the games, cyber activities provide an opportunity to disrupt operations and gain intelligence. While Russia poses a cyber threat, North Korea's capabilities are also formidable, targeting various aspects of the event to achieve its strategic goals. Shreyas Reddy, NK Pro, July 24
After Sue Mi Terry, South Korea Debates Need for Crackdown on Foreign Influence. In response to the indictment of Sue Mi Terry, South Korea is considering an amendment to create its own version of the U.S. Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). This proposal, spearheaded by Democratic Party lawmaker Park Sun-won, aims to regulate foreign influence in South Korean politics by requiring representatives of foreign interests to register and disclose their activities. This has sparked a debate on its potential to strain alliances and be used as a political weapon. John Lee, Korea Pro, July 24.
Newly-Elected Ruling Party Leader Will Emerge as a Challenge and Asset for Yoon. Han Dong-hoon has been elected as the new leader of South Korea's ruling People Power Party (PPP) with nearly 63% of the votes. His independent stance might challenge President Yoon's authority, but it also serves as a safeguard against potential impeachment. Han's leadership follows his resignation as interim leader after the PPP's defeat in April's parliamentary elections. John Lee, Korea Pro, July 24
At China’s Top Schools, Good Isn’t Always Enough. Admission to China's prestigious "985" universities no longer guarantees a secure future. Despite high academic achievements, students face intense competition and anxiety about job prospects and societal pressures. Higher education now values extracurriculars and well-roundedness, challenging the traditional meritocratic system. This has led to increased stress among top students, who fear not meeting high expectations despite their elite education. Zhu Lili, Sixth Tone, July 24
Cool in the Crossfire? Thailand Amidst Major Power Competition. Thailand remains largely unperturbed by the rising US-China rivalry, focusing on economic growth and national security instead. Historical domestic political instability and a balanced approach to US and China relations contribute to this stance. Thailand’s foreign policy emphasizes maintaining a satisfactory balance between major powers without taking sides, aiming to advance regional leadership without disrupting the current equilibrium. Sharon Seah and Tita Sanglee, Fulcrum, July 24
Southeast Asia and the Global South: Rhetoric and Reality: This article examines Southeast Asia's alignment with the Global South, noting both convergences and divergences in development levels, governance positions, and economic relations. While the region shares common concerns with the Global South, it thrives on diverse connections with developed and developing nations, defying simplistic North-South classifications. The discourse on the Global South has gained traction amid major power competition, with China and the US adopting differing strategies to engage with Southeast Asia. Hoang Thi Ha and Cha Hae Won, Fulcrum, July 24
Southeast Asia and the Global South: Rhetoric and Reality. Southeast Asia's alignment with the Global South reveals both shared interests and notable differences in development and governance. The region benefits from diverse economic relationships with both developed and developing countries, challenging simplistic categorizations. This positioning gains importance amid US-China competition, as both powers employ different engagement strategies with Southeast Asia. Hoang Thi Ha and Cha Hae Won, Fulcrum, July 24