Asia Daily: July 22, 2024
News
Bangladesh calm day after top court scrapped some job quotas. Bangladesh remained calm following the Supreme Court's decision to abolish certain job quotas for civil servants. The quotas, which reserved positions for certain groups such as freedom fighters' descendants, women, and ethnic minorities, had faced criticism for being discriminatory. The ruling sparked a mix of reactions across the country, with supporters lauding the move towards merit-based employment while opponents expressed concerns about the potential marginalization of underrepresented groups. The government has yet to announce any measures to address these concerns. Mohammad Ponir Hossain , Ruma Paul and Sam Jahan, Reuters, July 22
Taiwan starts annual war games aiming to closely mimic actual combat. Taiwan has commenced its annual Han Kuang military exercises, designed to simulate real combat scenarios in response to increasing military threats from China. The drills include live-fire exercises, joint operations with civilian forces, and simulations of Chinese invasions and blockades. The war games will also test Taiwan's ability to protect critical infrastructure and maintain wartime logistics. President Tsai Ing-wen emphasized the importance of these exercises in maintaining readiness and ensuring national security. Ann Wang, Reuters, July 22
Philippines, China reach deal to ease tensions at disputed shoal. China and the Philippines have reached an agreement aimed at ending confrontations at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, which both nations claim. The deal, reached after a series of diplomatic meetings and exchanges, aims to establish a mutually acceptable arrangement without conceding territorial claims. The agreement follows increased clashes, including a June incident where Chinese forces attacked Philippine navy boats. The deal, details of which remain undisclosed, focuses on deescalating tensions and managing differences through dialogue. This marks a rare instance of cooperation amid broader regional disputes involving China. Jim Gomez, AP News, July 22
China to allow delayed retirement to combat population woes. China is planning to implement policies that will allow delayed retirement as a measure to address its demographic challenges. The country faces a shrinking workforce and an aging population, which threaten economic growth and social stability. The new policies will gradually increase the retirement age to keep older workers in the labor force longer, thus alleviating some pressure on the pension system and ensuring a more sustainable workforce. The government has yet to provide specific details on the timeline and implementation process. The Straits Times, July 22
Marcos bans Philippine online casinos linked to scams and crime. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ordered the shutdown of online casinos, known as Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs), due to their association with criminal activities and scams. The decision comes amid increasing reports of human trafficking, money laundering, and other illegal activities linked to these operations. The ban aims to protect public safety and uphold the country's legal and ethical standards. Authorities will enforce the closure of these casinos and prosecute those involved in unlawful activities. Mara Cepeda, The Straits Times, July 22
US forces to exchange views with Okinawans after sex crimes. U.S. military officials in Okinawa will hold discussions with local residents following a series of sex crimes involving American servicemen. The meetings aim to address community concerns and improve relations between the military and Okinawans. These incidents have exacerbated long-standing tensions over the U.S. military presence on the island. Okinawa hosts the bulk of U.S. military forces in Japan, and local authorities have repeatedly called for measures to prevent such crimes and reduce the burden on the local population. Kyodo News, July 22
Economic Survey 2023-2024 Findings. The Economic Survey for 2023-2024 highlights India's robust economic growth, driven by strong domestic demand and a resilient services sector. The survey projects a GDP growth rate of 6.5% for the fiscal year, citing improved consumer confidence and increased investments. It also shows the importance of policy reforms and infrastructure development in sustaining growth. However, the survey notes challenges such as inflationary pressures, global economic uncertainties, and the need for job creation. It recommends continued focus on digitalization, green energy, and skill development to maintain momentum. Vikas Dhoot, The Hindu, July 22
Major fire onboard INS Brahmaputra; one sailor missing, ship leaning to left. A large fire broke out on the Indian Navy's guided-missile frigate INS Brahmaputra, resulting in one sailor going missing and the ship leaning to the left. The incident occurred while the vessel was docked for maintenance. Emergency response teams have been deployed to control the fire and prevent further damage. An investigation has been launched to determine the cause of the blaze and assess the extent of the damage. The Navy has expressed concern for the missing sailor and is conducting search operations. Ateeq Shaikh, The Hindu, July 22
UNICEF delivered 600,000 vaccines for North Korean children and pregnant women. UNICEF has delivered 600,000 vaccines to North Korea to immunize children and pregnant women against various diseases. The shipment includes vaccines for polio, measles, and tuberculosis, aimed at addressing the critical healthcare needs in the country. North Korea's healthcare system faces challenges, exacerbated by international sanctions and limited access to medical supplies. UNICEF's intervention is part of a broader effort to improve public health and protect vulnerable populations in North Korea. Anton Sokolin, NK News, July 22
South Korea blares anti-North Korea propaganda across border for 2nd day. South Korea has resumed broadcasting anti-North Korea propaganda across the border for the second consecutive day. This action follows recent provocations from North Korea, including missile launches and aggressive rhetoric. The broadcasts, using loudspeakers, aim to counter North Korean propaganda and inform North Korean citizens about the outside world. This tactic has historically increased tensions between the two countries. The South Korean government states that the broadcasts are part of a broader strategy to apply pressure on the North while promoting human rights and freedom of information. Jeongmin Kim, NK News, July 22
Russia’s top prosecutor visits North Korea for first time to discuss cooperation. Russia's top prosecutor, Igor Krasnov, has visited North Korea for the first time to discuss bilateral cooperation. The visit aims to strengthen legal and judicial collaboration between the two countries, focusing on areas such as crime prevention, legal training, and information exchange. This development continues the trend of deepening ties between Russia and North Korea amid increasing international isolation of the latter. The visit shows both countries' interest in bolstering their strategic partnership in various domains. Anton Sokolin, NK News, July 22
Long Form
Training workers for offshore wind industry in Japan. Japan is ramping up efforts to train workers for its burgeoning offshore wind industry as part of its renewable energy goals. The government and private sector are collaborating to develop specialized training programs and facilities to equip the workforce with the necessary skills. This initiative aims to address the industry's labor shortage and ensure the successful deployment and maintenance of offshore wind projects. By investing in workforce development, Japan hopes to accelerate its transition to renewable energy and meet its carbon neutrality targets by 2050.
, , July 22ASEAN centrality stands in the way of an Indonesia-Australia alliance. ASEAN's principle of centrality presents an obstacle to a potential bilateral alliance between Indonesia and Australia. Both countries share strategic interests and face common challenges, but ASEAN's commitment to multilateralism and regional cohesion complicates direct bilateral agreements. Indonesia, as a leading ASEAN member, prioritizes the organization's collective approach to regional security and diplomacy, which may limit its ability to engage in exclusive alliances. Meanwhile, Australia seeks to strengthen ties with Indonesia to improve regional stability and counterbalance China's influence. The interaction between ASEAN's centrality and bilateral ambitions shows the complexities of regional diplomacy. Pia Dannhauer, Lowy Institute, July 20
A weaker Europe is good for China at the worst time. Europe's current political and economic struggles, marked by internal divisions and a slowdown in economic growth, present an opportunity for China to expand its influence. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and the ongoing war in Ukraine, Europe's weakened state undermines its ability to counterbalance China's ambitions on the global stage. This comes at a critical moment when the West, particularly the U.S., is seeking to curb China's influence. China's strategic positioning in technology, infrastructure, and trade relations could further capitalize on Europe's vulnerabilities, potentially reshaping global power dynamics. Dominique Fraser, Lowy Institute, July 22
Japan, South Korea, United States: Let’s hope for a robust, lasting pact. The trilateral relationship between Japan, South Korea, and the United States has shown signs of strengthening, with hopes for a durable and effective alliance. Recent diplomatic efforts have aimed at resolving historical tensions and enhancing security cooperation in response to North Korean threats and China's growing influence. This renewed collaboration focuses on shared strategic interests and the need for a united front in the Indo-Pacific region. The success of this alliance will depend on continued diplomatic engagement, mutual trust, and the ability to manage domestic political pressures. Jane Hardy, Lowy Institute, July 22
Bangladesh’s student protests are latest sign of Sheikh Hasina’s increasingly brittle autocracy. Recent student protests in Bangladesh show the growing discontent with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian governance. The protests, triggered by government actions perceived as unjust, reflect widespread frustration over issues such as corruption, political repression, and lack of democratic freedoms. Hasina's administration has faced criticism for its heavy-handed response to dissent, including arrests and crackdowns on protesters. The student unrest illustrates the fragile nature of Hasina’s rule and raises questions about the future stability of her government amidst rising demands for political reforms and greater accountability. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, July 22
The guessing game about Prabowo’s policy agenda. Indonesia's Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto's policy agenda remains uncertain as he prepares for the upcoming presidential election. Despite his political influence, Prabowo has yet to clearly outline his plans, leading to speculation and uncertainty about his potential leadership direction. Observers are particularly interested in how he would address key issues such as economic development, military modernization, and foreign relations, especially with China and the United States. Prabowo's vague policy stance adds to the unpredictability of Indonesia's future political landscape and its regional impact. East Asia Forum, July 22
South Korea’s healthcare system gets a checkup. South Korea is undertaking large reforms to improve its healthcare system, addressing challenges such as an aging population, rising healthcare costs, and disparities in access to medical services. The government is focusing on enhancing primary care, increasing support for chronic disease management, and integrating digital health technologies. These reforms aim to ensure sustainability and equity in healthcare delivery. By prioritizing preventive care and leveraging technological advancements, South Korea seeks to maintain high-quality healthcare while managing economic pressures and demographic shifts. Georgia Smith and Joseph Brake, East Asia Forum, July 22
Modi’s got a friend in Moscow. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to strengthen ties with Russia, reflecting a long-standing relationship that has endured despite global geopolitical shifts. The partnership is particularly significant given the current global tensions and India's strategic balancing act between major powers. Modi's engagement with Moscow includes collaboration on defense, energy, and trade, underscoring mutual benefits and strategic interests. This relationship highlights India's continued foreign policy approach of maintaining diverse alliances to safeguard its national interests. Aditya Bhan, East Asia Forum, July 20
Belarus’ Foreign Minister will visit North Korea for possible talks on Russia cooperation. Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik is set to visit North Korea to discuss potential cooperation involving Russia. This visit marks a significant diplomatic engagement, as the three nations explore strengthening ties amidst increasing global tensions. The discussions are expected to focus on economic collaboration, military cooperation, and strategic alliances. This development comes as Belarus and North Korea both face international sanctions and seek to bolster their positions through new partnerships. The outcomes of these talks could have implications for regional stability and global geopolitics. Hyung-jin Kim, The Diplomat, July 22
New Caledonia: Two Dreams, One Political Future. New Caledonia stands at a political crossroads as it grapples with competing visions for its future. The territory faces a choice between greater integration with France or pursuing full independence. Recent referendums have shown deep divisions within the population, with indigenous Kanak communities largely favoring independence, while other residents lean towards maintaining ties with France. Catherine Wilson, The Diplomat, July 22
China’s Third Plenum offers little hope for a flagging economy. The recent Third Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party provided few solutions for China's struggling economy. Despite high expectations, the meeting produced limited policy initiatives to address critical issues such as sluggish growth, high youth unemployment, and mounting debt. The Plenum reaffirmed the government's commitment to state-led development and ideological control, rather than introducing substantive market reforms. Analysts express concerns that without substantial changes, China's economic prospects may remain bleak, affecting global markets and trade dynamics. Donald Low, The Diplomat, July 22
Why To Lam’s pragmatic authoritarianism will be good for Vietnam. Vietnam's Minister of Public Security, To Lam, is seen as a proponent of pragmatic authoritarianism, a governance style that could benefit the country's economic and social stability. His approach combines strict political control with economic reforms and modernization efforts, aiming to maintain order while promoting growth. Supporters argue that To Lam's policies can attract foreign investment, enhance infrastructure, and improve public services. Critics, however, worry about potential human rights abuses and limited political freedoms. As Vietnam navigates its development path, To Lam's leadership will significantly influence its future trajectory. Zachary Abuza, Nikkei Asia, July 22
The tragic cost of Taiwan’s silence on its South China Sea claims. Taiwan's reticence on its South China Sea claims has led to strategic losses. Despite holding a key position in the disputed waters, Taiwan's lack of assertiveness has allowed other claimants, particularly China, to strengthen their foothold. This silence undermines Taiwan's geopolitical leverage and leaves it vulnerable to regional power dynamics. Advocates for a more vocal stance argue that clear articulation of its claims could bolster Taiwan's international standing and security. The current approach, however, reflects a cautious foreign policy amid complex cross-strait relations and broader regional tensions. William Han, Nikkei Asia, July 22
To fix China’s economy, Xi needs to curb deflation. To address China's economic challenges, President Xi Jinping must prioritize tackling deflation. The Chinese economy is experiencing a slowdown, characterized by declining consumer prices and weak domestic demand. These issues exacerbate existing problems such as high debt levels and sluggish growth. Economists argue that stimulating consumer spending, enhancing business confidence, and implementing structural reforms are essential to reversing deflationary trends. Without decisive action, China's economic malaise could deepen, impacting both domestic stability and global economic dynamics. William Pesek, Nikkei Asia, July 19
Bribery, influence, and diplomacy: Uncovering parallels in US-ROK relations. The complex dynamics of U.S.-South Korea relations reveal troubling parallels involving bribery and influence-peddling. Historical and recent incidents highlight how corruption can undermine diplomatic efforts and trust between the two nations. These issues not only strain bilateral ties but also impact broader geopolitical strategies in the region. The ongoing challenges emphasize the need for transparency and accountability to strengthen the alliance and ensure effective cooperation. Addressing these concerns is crucial for maintaining a robust partnership amidst evolving security and economic landscapes. Benjamin A. Engel, Korea Pro, July 22
Alarm as illegal fentanyl sale grips South Korean youth, fueling addiction. South Korea is facing a growing crisis as illegal fentanyl sales fuel addiction among its youth. The potent synthetic opioid, far stronger than morphine, is increasingly accessible on the black market, leading to rising addiction rates and overdose deaths. Authorities are alarmed by the rapid spread of fentanyl abuse and are struggling to curb its distribution. Efforts to combat this issue include stricter law enforcement, public awareness campaigns, and expanding access to addiction treatment. The situation shows the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address drug abuse and protect vulnerable populations. Joon Ha Park, Korea Pro, July 19
Can Vietnam thrive under Trump 2.0? The potential re-election of Donald Trump poses questions for Vietnam's economic and geopolitical future. Under Trump's previous administration, Vietnam navigated trade tensions and benefited from the U.S.-China trade war. However, another Trump term could bring renewed unpredictability in U.S. trade policies and foreign relations. Vietnam might face challenges in balancing its relationships with major powers while maintaining its economic growth. The country would need to adapt to shifting global dynamics and leverage its strategic position to continue thriving. Nguyen Khac Giang, Fulcrum, July 22
Anti-corruption politics and shifts in central-local relations in Vietnam. Vietnam is witnessing shifts in central-local relations driven by anti-corruption efforts. The central government's crackdown on corruption aims to improve governance and maintain public trust, but it also affects the balance of power between central and local authorities. These efforts are reshaping political dynamics, as local leaders face increased scrutiny and accountability. The anti-corruption campaign is part of broader reforms to ensure economic stability and institutional integrity. However, the centralization of power may lead to tensions and challenges in local governance and autonomy. Nguyen Khac Giang, Fulcrum, July 20
All roads lead to Bhumjaithai. The Bhumjaithai Party has emerged as a principal force in Thai politics, leveraging its alliances and policy influence. Known for its pragmatic approach, the party has capitalized on its central position to broker deals and shape the political landscape. Bhumjaithai's success is attributed to its focus on practical policies, such as legalizing medical marijuana and promoting infrastructure projects, which resonate with the public. As Thailand navigates political uncertainties, Bhumjaithai's role is crucial in forming coalitions and ensuring stability. The party's ability to adapt and negotiate shows its growing importance in the nation's governance. Napon Jatusripitak and Suthikarn Meechan, Fulcrum, July 22