China
Faced with geopolitics and trade war, U.S. companies in China report record-low new investment plans. U.S. companies operating in China report the lowest rate of new investment plans in years, citing geopolitical friction, tariffs, and regulatory uncertainty as top concerns. A U.S.-China Business Council survey shows over half of firms plan no new investment in 2025, with 27% considering relocating operations. Fu Ting, Associated Press, July 16
China expresses support to Iran in safeguarding sovereignty, dignity as senior diplomats meet. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi affirmed support for Iran’s sovereignty and diplomatic rights during a meeting with Iranian counterpart Seyed Abbas Araghchi in Tianjin, emphasizing opposition to power politics and military threats. Both sides committed to deepening cooperation and dialogue amid rising regional tensions and nuclear concerns. Zhang Wanshi, Global Times, July 16
Japan
Ishiba faces bad poll numbers with Upper House vote only days away. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s approval rating has dropped to 31% ahead of Sunday’s Upper House election, with his ruling LDP-Komeito coalition at risk of losing its majority. Recent polls show weak support in key districts and a growing threat from the right-wing Sanseito party. A loss could prompt calls for Ishiba’s resignation and pressure to form a new coalition. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, July 16
South Korea
Ex-President Yoon skips insurrection trial hearing for 2nd time. Former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol refused to attend his insurrection trial for the second time, stating he will boycott further hearings unless special counsel Cho Eun-suk's team is dismissed. Yoon, in custody over a martial law attempt, faces multiple charges including abuse of power. Prosecutors have requested a warrant to compel his appearance. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, July 17
Senior diplomats of S. Korea, U.S., Japan to hold talks in Japan this week. Vice foreign ministers from South Korea, the U.S., and Japan will convene in Tokyo on Friday to discuss North Korea, regional security, and economic issues. The meeting marks the first trilateral talks under the Lee and Trump administrations. U.S. Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau’s visit underscores a renewed focus on Indo-Pacific cooperation and strengthening the three-way alliance. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, July 16
Thailand
Influential ex-Thai PM Thaksin to receive verdict on royal insult case in late August. Thailand’s former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is set to hear a verdict on August 22 in a royal insult case, one of several legal issues affecting him and his daughter, suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Though not in office, Thaksin remains politically powerful amid backlash over his prior hospitalisation and his daughter's alleged misconduct. Panarat Thepgumpanat and Chayut Setboonsarng, Reuters, July 16
MPs back amnesty bills. Thailand’s House of Representatives approved three amnesty bills aimed at promoting societal peace while rejecting two others linked to civil society groups and the former Move Forward Party. The approved bills exclude lese majeste offenses, a key reason for rejecting the alternative proposals. A 32-member committee will study the bills, with the UTN-sponsored version as the base. Critics argue the exclusions perpetuate inequality. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 16
Vietnam
Party Congress of NA Office sets vision for 2025–2030 term. The 15th Congress of the Party Organisation of the National Assembly Office convened in Hanoi to outline strategic reforms for the 2025–2030 term. Leaders emphasized innovation in leadership, structural reform, and stronger coordination to meet national goals. Le Quang Tung was appointed Secretary of the Party Committee. Vietnam News, July 16
Cambodia
Hun Sen: ‘Insolent’ Thai acting PM bears responsibility for seeking his advice on June 15 alongside Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen accused Thailand’s acting prime minister of hypocrisy for privately seeking his advice during a June 15 call with suspended PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, then publicly discrediting him weeks later. In a social media post, Hun Sen challenged the official’s integrity and political memory, asserting that real negotiations must go through Prime Minister Hun Manet. Khmer Times, July 16
Philippines
U.S. will build repair facilities for the Philippine navy near the disputed South China Sea. The U.S. Navy will construct two maintenance facilities in Palawan, a Philippine province bordering the South China Sea, to support military vessels amid rising tensions with China. The project, announced by the U.S. Embassy, aligns with Washington’s commitment to defend the Philippines under a mutual defense treaty and reinforces strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific. Associated Press, July 16
Marcos urged to resist Trump’s 'bullying tactics’. A coalition of Philippine farmers and labor unions urged President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to oppose U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20% tariff on Philippine exports, warning it would damage the country’s economy and weaken national security. The groups criticized Washington's trade decision as inconsistent with its stated alliance, citing projected job losses in agriculture, electronics, and manufacturing. Mary Joy Salcedo, Philippine Daily Inquirer, July 16
Indonesia
Indonesia clinches U.S. trade deal, says Trump was a 'tough negotiator'. Indonesia secured a trade agreement with the United States that reduces planned tariffs from 32% to 19% in exchange for major purchases of U.S. jets, energy, and agriculture. President Prabowo Subianto called Trump a tough negotiator but said Jakarta held firm on its limits. Markets reacted positively, though analysts warned Chinese trade exposure remains a risk. Stefanno Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, July 16
Prabowo to meet 'tough negotiator' Trump in September or October. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced plans to visit the U.S. for a state meeting with President Donald Trump, likely in September or October. The leaders recently concluded a tariff agreement, reducing duties on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19% in exchange for major U.S. exports. Agnes Valentina Christa, Jakarta Globe, July 16
Malaysia
Malaysia in a tight spot as pressure builds to reject Trump's 'alpha male' pick as ambassador. Malaysia is under growing pressure to reject President Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador, Nick Adams, amid backlash over his social media posts critical of Islam and support for Israel. While Adams is expected to win Senate confirmation, Malaysian officials and civil groups fear diplomatic fallout and cultural insensitivity. The dispute threatens to complicate ongoing trade talks. Rozanna Latiff and Danial Azhar, Reuters, July 16
Singapore
Singapore's exports rise 13% y/y in June, stronger than forecast. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports surged 13% in June compared to a year earlier, surpassing expectations due to sharp increases in shipments of PCs, integrated circuits, and non-monetary gold. The rise followed a 3.9% decline in May and beat the 5% growth forecast. Electronics exports grew notably, and gains were strongest to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea. Jun Yuan Yong, Reuters, July 16
Bangladesh
Bangladeshi forces clash with supporters of ousted leader Hasina, leaving at least 4 dead. Security forces in Bangladesh clashed with supporters of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina as a student-led political party marched toward Gopalganj, resulting in at least four deaths and dozens injured. Violence erupted when Hasina loyalists attacked police and set vehicles on fire. Julhas Alam, Associated Press, July 16
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan and Japan’s Hiroshima strengthen ties on trade, nuclear non-proliferation. Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met Hiroshima Governor Hidehiko Yuzaki to boost cooperation on trade, humanitarian efforts, and nuclear non-proliferation. Discussions highlighted expanding ties between Hiroshima and the Abai Region, supporting radiation medicine, and advancing the Hiroshima–Semei initiative. Fatima Kemelova, The Astana Times, July 16
Uzbekistan
Saida Mirziyoyeva, Uzbek president’s daughter, grows her authority. Saida Mirziyoyeva has been appointed head of Uzbekistan’s presidential administration, gaining oversight of education, business, the judiciary, healthcare, and water resources. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree restructuring the office, eliminating 284 staff roles. Mirziyoyeva, formerly a presidential aide, is seen as a growing political force and advocate for women's rights and free speech. The Times of Central Asia, July 16
Northeast Asia
Smoothing market entry in a state-guided economy: China's new Private Economy Development Bureaus. China’s Private Economy Development Bureaus (PEDBs), established by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2023, aim to simplify market access for private firms by harmonizing conflicting regulations and reducing reliance on personal government ties. Provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong have already adopted local versions. While PEDBs promise a more predictable regulatory environment, firms must still align with political priorities to scale. The state maintains authority over strategic sectors, and regulatory clarity may coexist with growing political influence, especially as party organizations deepen ties within private enterprises. Legal and structural changes aim to support innovation and modernization, yet they also risk shifting political favoritism to the growth phase of private firms. Robin Schindowski, MERICS, July 16
The Case That China Is Now Actively Resisting Pressure on the Yuan to Appreciate. China is accumulating foreign assets through its state commercial banks, signaling efforts to prevent yuan appreciation despite strong trade surpluses and capital inflows. In Q2 2025 alone, banks added $70 billion in foreign assets, with related FX settlement figures reinforcing this trend. Offshore swaps data also show Chinese banks are now lending dollars, reversing past strategies used to defend the yuan. With deflation and a 20% real effective exchange rate drop over three years, net exports have significantly boosted GDP growth. These developments suggest a change in currency pressure direction and raise questions for U.S. and European policymakers amid growing trade imbalances. Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, July 17
APEC watches as economic security reshapes trade. Rising concerns over economic security, framed increasingly as national security, are reshaping trade dynamics among APEC members, with countries like the US and China implementing tariffs, investment screening, and subsidies to safeguard critical industries. While these measures challenge liberal trade norms, most APEC economies remain reliant on interdependence rather than autarky. The ambiguous and politically malleable nature of national security risks overreach unless constrained by clear, multilateral norms. APEC's non-binding, voluntary structure may offer a platform for consensus-building, as shown in pandemic-era cooperation on essential goods. The forum must evolve to mediate between sovereignty-driven security aims and open trade principles. Toshiya Takahashi, East Asia Forum, July 16
Wonsan Kalma Beach Resort Hosts a High-Level Visit. North Korea’s newly opened Wonsan Kalma Beach Resort hosted a rare diplomatic event as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met Kim Jong Un aboard a yacht off the Kalma Peninsula, bypassing the capital. Lavrov arrived July 11 directly from Kuala Lumpur and stayed at the Myongsasimni Hotel. Satellite imagery confirmed his aircraft and state motorcade presence. The meetings, including one with Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui at the Kalmaegi Hotel, marked the resort’s first major state function. Despite the resort’s festive public activity, several facilities remain incomplete, including a major hotel and new railway station. Martyn Williams, 38 North, July 16
The cracks beneath China’s GDP. China’s Q2 2025 GDP grew 5.2%, slightly beating forecasts, but the broader economy shows signs of fragility. Consumer spending weakened, with June retail sales up just 4.8%, and real estate investment fell 11.2% year-on-year. Export strength drove early gains, yet domestic demand remains weak amid deflationary pressures and persistent housing market declines. Expectations of falling property prices are delaying spending, creating a feedback loop. Despite some stimulus, policymakers face mounting pressure to increase support, especially with tariff uncertainties looming and growth momentum fading. Stabilizing the property sector may hinge on government purchases and further fiscal intervention. Yush Chau, ThinkChina, July 16
Southeast Asia
Measuring Perceptions of Cohesion in Southeast Asia and Beyond. The 2025 Southeast Asian Social Cohesion Radar (SEASCR), launched by RSIS at the ICCS, moved from surveying regional thought leaders to polling national representative samples across ASEAN. Using a locally adapted Bertelsmann Stiftung framework, it found that perceptions of cohesion vary significantly based on context. Vietnam ranked highest in 2025, likely due to centralized narratives and recent economic success, while Singapore, top in 2022, dropped to sixth. Cohesion remains difficult to quantify and susceptible to changing societal dynamics. The study highlights that metrics must be contextualized and cannot fully capture minority marginalization or long-term resilience without deeper qualitative insights. Paul Hedges, RSIS, July 16
Indonesia’s jobs boom is a story of quantity, not quality. Indonesia added 4.8 million new jobs in 2024 and brought unemployment below 5 percent, yet most jobs were informal, underpaid, and part-time. Over 80 percent of employment gains since 2018 occurred in household enterprises like street vending and home-based work, offering little upward mobility. Real wages have stagnated, underemployment is rising, and 16 million workers now seek more hours. Quality job creation remains limited in high-value sectors. Policy reforms are urged to encourage formal employment, improve wages, and link benefits to work status. Broader labor indicators are also needed to guide monetary policy, as headline employment figures mask deeper vulnerabilities. Kelvin Ramadhan, East Asia Forum, July 17
Will Vietnam’s Tariff Deal with the US Make Its Exports More Competitive? Vietnam’s new tariff agreement with the US lowers most export duties to 20%, down from 46% announced in April, making it the first Southeast Asian country to secure such a deal. However, a 40% tariff on transshipments, especially those with Chinese inputs, poses a significant risk due to Vietnam’s integration into China’s supply chains. Despite the lower tariffs, export overlap with regional peers like Malaysia and Thailand remains limited, reducing the deal’s impact on competitiveness. Differences in product specializations further dampen Vietnam’s potential to gain market share over its neighbors. Juthathip Jongwanich and Archanun Kohpaiboon, FULCRUM, July 17