Asia Daily: July 17, 2024
News
China calls off arms control talks with US over weapon sales to Taiwan. China suspended arms control and non-proliferation talks with the US due to Washington's continued arms sales to Taiwan. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian blamed the US for damaging the political atmosphere necessary for consultations. China demands respect for its core interests for future dialogue. The suspension follows resumed talks last year after a four-year hiatus, amid ongoing tensions over Taiwan, trade, and the South China Sea. Sylvie Zhuang, South China Morning Post, July 17
Gov't to cement alliance with U.S. beyond U.S. election: foreign ministry. South Korea aims to solidify its alliance with the U.S., irrespective of the U.S. presidential election outcome, the foreign ministry stated. The ministry is expanding networks with U.S. political and policy communities to address major issues. Additionally, South Korea will maintain a firm stance against Russia-North Korea military cooperation and continue high-level communications with China and Japan to foster strategic and mature relationships. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 17
Court to rule on Move Forward dissolution Aug 7. Thailand's Constitutional Court will rule on August 7 on the possible dissolution of the Move Forward Party (MFP), the main opposition party. The Election Commission has accused MFP of attempting to overthrow the government by proposing amendments to the lese majeste law. If dissolved, MFP executives may be banned from politics for ten years. MFP, popular among young voters, won the most seats in last year's election but was blocked from forming a government. Bangkok Post, July 17
Kazakhstan to increase transit of Russian, Turkmen, and Uzbek gas in 2024. Kazakhstan plans to boost its transit of natural gas from Russia, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan will rise to 3.8 billion cubic meters, and the transit to China will increase to 37.1 billion cubic meters. Additionally, discussions are ongoing about increasing Russian gas transit to Kyrgyzstan. Kazakhstan also aims to increase its own natural gas production by 2.3% to 60.5 billion cubic meters in 2024. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 17
Universities in Bangladesh shut their doors and authorities raid opposition HQ after deadly protests. Several major universities in Bangladesh closed following violent protests over government job quotas, which left six people dead. Dhaka University suspended classes indefinitely. Protesters demand an end to a quota system favoring veterans' families, which they claim is discriminatory. Police clashed with protesters and raided the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party's headquarters, arresting several activists. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina urged patience, promising justice and a Supreme Court decision on the quota system soon. Julhas Alam, AP News, July 17
China, Russia carried out live-fire naval exercises in South China Sea. China and Russia conducted live-fire naval exercises in the South China Sea, deploying at least three vessels each. The exercises, called 'Maritime Cooperation - 2024,' involved joint air defense and anti-submarine drills. This collaboration reflects their strengthened military ties amid U.S. sanctions. Concurrently, the U.S. and Philippine coast guards held joint training in the same region, emphasizing their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. Joe Cash, Reuters, July 17
Japan arranging to shoulder $3.3 billion in G7 loans for Ukraine. Japan plans to contribute $3.3 billion in loans to Ukraine, utilizing interest from frozen Russian assets. This contribution is part of a $50 billion support package agreed upon by G7 leaders during their June summit in Italy. The U.S. and EU will each contribute $20 billion, while Japan, Britain, and Canada will share the remaining $10 billion. The G7 finance ministers will discuss this initiative at their upcoming meeting in Rio de Janeiro. Kyodo News, July 17
China’s Communist Party charts technology- and security-focused development for reviving the economy. In response to a slowing economy, China’s Communist Party is focusing on technology and national security to drive growth. Despite reforms and initiatives like "Made in China 2025," challenges persist with a weak job market, heavy local government debts, and a stagnant property sector. Xi Jinping's administration seeks to boost domestic production and reduce dependency on exports, though concerns about overproduction and its impact on global markets remain. Elaine Kurtenbach, AP News, July 17
Senior Republican lawmakers ask Biden for options to support Philippines in Beijing standoff. U.S. Senators Roger Wicker and Jim Risch have urged President Biden to provide a comprehensive list of military, diplomatic, and economic options to support the Philippines amid tensions with China over the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. They emphasized the need for visible U.S. support to honor mutual defense commitments and deter further Chinese aggression. The Philippines has experienced increasing confrontations with Chinese vessels, raising concerns about regional stability. Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart, Reuters, July 17
Mandalay PDF claims victories over Myanmar junta. The Mandalay People’s Defense Force (PDF) announced significant victories against Myanmar's junta, including seizing 11 bases in Singu Township and controlling the Mandalay-Mogoke road. These attacks, part of Operation Taungthaman, have led to the deaths of around 100 junta soldiers and the destruction of two armored vehicles. The PDF has also reported high casualties among junta forces, capturing numerous weapons. This operation is a collaborative effort with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and other resistance groups, aiming to disrupt junta operations in northern Shan State and Mandalay Region. Author, The Irrawaddy, July 17
Unification minister to visit U.S. next week. Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho will visit the U.S. from Sunday through July 26 for discussions on Korean Peninsula issues and North Korea's human rights. He will meet with U.S. government officials, Congress members, and experts on inter-Korean affairs. Kim will also deliver a keynote speech at the 2024 International Dialogue on North Korean Human Rights, co-hosted by the ministry, the National Endowment for Democracy, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This forum marks the first time the ministry has hosted such an event abroad. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, July 17
North Korean official drowned during Moscow visit, say Russian media. Kim Geum Chol, a North Korean official reported to be leading a military training delegation, drowned in a pond near Moscow on July 11. Russian news outlets BAZA and SHOT reported that Kim, who was staying at the North Korean embassy, was swimming in Zelenograd when he went missing, and his body was found the next day. The incident occurred amidst increased military exchanges between North Korea and Russia. The North Korean embassy and Moscow police have not commented publicly. Author, Reuters, July 17
China’s third plenum: Xi Jinping tells party to show ‘unwavering faith’ in reform plan. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged the Communist Party to commit to his development strategy amid lower-than-expected economic growth. The third plenum of the Central Committee, a key policy meeting, is being held in a challenging domestic and international environment. Despite economic pressures, Xi emphasized China's unique development path, focusing on technology and advanced manufacturing. Official media reinforced Xi's status as a major reformer, akin to Deng Xiaoping, highlighting his role in all significant reforms since 2013. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, July 17
Manhunt for Guo to widen. Senate President Francis Escudero announced a broader manhunt for Bamban, Tarlac Mayor Alice Guo, who is evading a Senate investigation into her alleged involvement with illegal Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs). Efforts by the Senate Sergeant at Arms and the Philippine National Police to serve arrest orders have been unsuccessful, as Guo and seven others were not found at their listed addresses. The Senate is intensifying its efforts to locate and apprehend the individuals involved. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, July 17
Long Form
Malaysia’s Mufti (Federal Territories) Bill 2024: Sectarian or Crucial Step Forward? The Mufti (Federal Territories) Bill 2024, introduced by Minister Dr. Mohd Na’im Mokhtar, seeks to regulate the appointment and roles of muftis in Malaysia's Federal Territories. The bill requires muftis to adhere to the Sunni creed to counter extremism like Wahhabism. Critics argue it restricts intellectual freedom and deepens sectarian divides. The bill's progress depends on consultations with the Malay Rulers, posing challenges in balancing religious moderation and sectarian concerns. Mohd Faizal Musa, Fulcrum, July 17
How China’s continued opening up sets country on path to better future. At the third plenum of the 11th Central Committee in 1978, Deng Xiaoping's reforms set China on a path of economic modernization. Today, China faces new challenges such as strategic rivalries and economic uncertainties. To maintain growth, China must empower entrepreneurs, enhance private sector confidence, improve policy consistency, and strengthen legal protections. Additionally, opening up to more foreigners and fostering international partnerships are crucial. Constructive dialogue and informed responses to criticism will help China demonstrate responsible global leadership. Brian Y. S. Wong, South China Morning Post, July 17
Understanding Indonesia’s Ukraine peace summit scepticism. Indonesia remains sceptical about the effectiveness of the Ukraine peace summit proposals. Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto's peace plan, suggesting negotiations based on the current military status quo, contrasts with Ukrainian and Western demands for a complete Russian troop withdrawal from occupied territories. Critics argue that Prabowo's plan serves his political ambitions for the 2024 presidential elections and reflects anti-U.S. sentiment within Indonesia. Both China and Prabowo's approaches are seen as leveraging geopolitical narratives rather than addressing the core issues of the conflict. Trystanto Sanjaya, East Asia Forum, July 17
Has Bangladesh lost its footing in the China-India balancing act? Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's recent visits to China and India signal a tilt towards India, straining relations with China. Bangladesh's request for $5 billion in budget support from China resulted in only $137 million, reflecting China's reluctance due to Bangladesh's alignment with Indian interests, such as the Teesta River project. Analysts suggest this shift may affect Bangladesh's geopolitical strategy and its ability to balance relations with both nations, impacting economic and diplomatic dynamics. Syful Islam, The Diplomat, July 16
Taking enhanced Russia-North Korea ties in stride. The recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea has heightened concerns in the U.S. and among its allies. Historically close, the Russia-North Korea relationship is now further solidified by Russia's need for North Korean munitions for the Ukraine war. South Korea retains significant advantages over North Korea, including economic power and advanced military capabilities. While China supports the partnership to challenge U.S. strategies, it avoids deepening ties to prevent regional destabilization. The U.S. should continue enhancing alliances and diplomatic engagement to manage tensions. Lyle Goldstein, The Diplomat, July 16
Has Biden "checkmated" China? President Joe Biden claims his administration has strengthened U.S. alliances in Asia to counter China, citing bolstered ties with Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. However, his assertion of "checkmating" China is challenged by ongoing issues like China's actions in the South China Sea and economic statecraft. While the U.S. has made significant strides in defense and alliances, it struggles with influencing non-aligned countries and addressing economic competition with China. Susannah Patton, Lowy Institute, July 17
How strategic autonomy played a central role in Modi’s Russia visit. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Russia emphasized India's strategic autonomy in foreign policy. The 22nd India-Russia annual summit addressed concerns about the growing Sino-Russian alliance, reinforced India-Russia ties, and underscored India's multipolar global stance. Key outcomes included agreements in trade, climate, and research, and a focus on preventing Russia from deepening ties with China. This approach reflects India's need to balance relations with both the U.S. and Russia while maintaining its strategic interests. Anuja Saha, The Geopolitics, July 17