News
New deal establishes a hotline Chinese and Philippine presidents can use to stop clashes at sea. China and the Philippines have agreed to create a direct communication line between their presidential offices to prevent maritime confrontations in the South China Sea from escalating. This follows past lower-level hotlines and comes amid ongoing territorial disputes. The deal includes plans for a new communication channel between coast guards and other confidence-boosting measures to improve cooperation and manage tensions. Jim Gomez, AP News, July 16
Kazakhstan reports steady economic growth in first half of 2024. Kazakhstan's Ministry of the National Economy announced a 3.3% GDP increase from January to June 2024, up from 3.2% the previous year. Despite spring flooding impacting multiple sectors, industrial production grew by 2.8%, with notable increases in mechanical engineering (9.4%) and pharmaceuticals (14.8%). Construction rose by 8.6%, with 4.6 million square meters of new housing completed. Foreign trade turnover reached $55.3 billion, with a positive trade balance of $9.6 billion. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 16
Japan completes 7th round of Fukushima treated water discharge. Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) finished the seventh release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. This round involved approximately 7,800 tons of water, processed to remove most radioactive materials except tritium, which is diluted to safe levels. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Japan's approach aligns with global safety standards. The discharge plan, spanning several decades, continues to face local and international scrutiny. Kyodo News, July 16
Vietnam strengthens ties with AIIB for strategic infrastructure development. Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính met with AIIB President Jin Liqun, highlighting Vietnam’s strategic infrastructure needs in transport, healthcare, education, and climate adaptation. Chính proposed AIIB's support through advice and concessional loans for projects like the North-South high-speed railway and urban railways in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Jin praised Vietnam’s economic achievements and announced a $5 billion allocation at preferential rates to support these initiatives. Vietnam News, July 16
Five killed in violent anti-quota protests in Bangladesh. At least five people were killed and scores injured as police and government supporters clashed with students protesting against a government job quota system. Tens of thousands of students participated in nationwide protests for a second day. Violence erupted after the High Court ordered the reinstatement of a 30% job quota for freedom fighters' families. Police used rubber bullets and tear gas, with deaths reported in Rangpur, Dhaka, and Chittagong. The protests are the first significant challenge to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government since January. Ruma Paul, Reuters, July 16
First Chinese freight train leaves for Iran via Turkmenistan. The inaugural freight train from China to Iran, carrying 50 containers, departed from Xi’an and will travel through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan before reaching Tehran in around ten days. This new route, part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, aims to boost economic ties and enhance Iran's transit capabilities, offering a more efficient pathway for Chinese goods to enter West Asia and Europe. Iranian officials believe this will significantly improve trade and logistics in the region. The Times of Central Asia, July 16
Taiwan eyes Japan collaborations. Taiwan aims to enhance scientific cooperation with Japan, focusing on research, development, semiconductors, AI, clean energy, and medical technologies. Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun emphasized the partnership's role in restructuring global supply chains during a meeting with Japanese lawmakers. Japanese Representative Keisuke Suzuki highlighted mutual challenges like low birthrates and dependency on the Chinese market. The discussions also included ensuring peace in the Taiwan Strait. Taipei Times, July 16
Yoon says S. Korea-U.S. alliance elevated to 'nuclear-based' one. President Yoon Suk Yeol announced that South Korea's alliance with the U.S. has advanced to a "nuclear-based" level to counter North Korea's nuclear threats. This follows the adoption of the "Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula" guidelines by Yoon and President Biden. The U.S. will assign nuclear assets specifically for the Korean Peninsula in both wartime and peacetime. This move is part of the efforts by the Nuclear Consultative Group to ensure America's extended deterrence commitment. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News, July 16
Thaksin can help govt, but within limits. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra can assist the Thai government in non-political roles after completing his jail term. Legal adviser Wissanu Krea-ngam stated Thaksin could work as an adviser or special representative, but not as a minister or prime minister. Thaksin, who returns after 15 years of exile and a reduced prison sentence, may also help the Pheu Thai Party led by his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, July 16
A North Korean diplomat in Cuba defected to South Korea in November, a possible blow to leader Kim. South Korea's National Intelligence Service confirmed that Ri Il Kyu, a senior North Korean diplomat in Cuba, defected to South Korea with his family in November due to disillusionment with North Korea's regime and health issues. The defection occurred before South Korea and Cuba established diplomatic ties in February. Ri had been involved in blocking Cuba from opening diplomatic relations with South Korea. Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, July 16
Taiwan firms shift supply chains to India from China, trade body chief says. Taiwan companies are relocating supply chains from China to India amid rising global trade tensions. Taiwan's foreign direct investment in India surged to over $665 million from 2018 to 2023, driven by the U.S.-China trade conflict, compared to nearly $277 million from 2006 to 2017. Key sectors include mobile phone assembly and footwear. Notably, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp partnered with India's Tata Group to build a semiconductor facility in Gujarat. Shivangi Acharya, Reuters, July 16
South China Sea: PLA deploys new hospital ship to islands and reefs in contested waters. China has deployed its largest hospital ship, the Silk Road Ark, to the South China Sea for its maiden mission, providing medical services to the Paracel and Spratly Islands. This move occurs amid increasing regional tensions. The Silk Road Ark, commissioned to the Southern Theatre Command, is China’s second 10,000-tonne-class hospital ship. It aims to support medical rescue missions, wartime casualties, and humanitarian aid, enhancing China's strategic presence in the disputed waters. Alcott Wei, South China Morning Post, July 16
Bangladesh pushes back Myanmar junta personnel fleeing Rakhine conflict on boats. Bangladeshi authorities have repatriated Myanmar junta personnel and their families who fled Rakhine State due to clashes with the Arakan Army. Over 130 security personnel and their families were returned last Sunday. The Arakan Army has taken control of several areas, causing junta troops to flee. The conflict has intensified, and more junta members have crossed into Bangladesh seeking refuge. Muktadir Rashid, The Irrawaddy, July 16
Singapore still pursuing Jho Low over 1MDB case; US Justice Department settlement 'no bearing' on probe. Singapore's police confirmed that the 2016 Interpol red notice against Malaysian fugitive Jho Low remains active. Despite a settlement agreement between the US Department of Justice and Low, Singapore continues its criminal investigations into Low's involvement in the 1MDB scandal. About S$164 million in 1MDB-related assets remain seized in Singapore, including S$101 million linked to Low. Singapore has obtained court orders to release S$103 million to the Malaysian government. Ashley Tham, Channel News Asia, July 16
At least 4 Indian soldiers killed during firefight in Kashmir. Four Indian soldiers were killed in a clash with suspected militants in Indian-administered Kashmir. The incident occurred when troops pursued militants into the dense forests of Kalakote in southern Kashmir, resulting in an intense firefight. The militants were surrounded, with reports of injuries among them. Kashmir remains a conflict zone with frequent clashes between Indian forces and rebels seeking independence or merger with Pakistan. Al Jazeera, July 16.
Long Form
Sri Lanka’s bond deal should not set precedent. Sri Lanka's recent bond restructuring introduces macro-linked bonds that revert to standard fixed-income instruments post-2027. This deal risks future debt issues as payments will be determined by Sri Lanka's dollar GDP between 2025 and 2027, potentially leading to increased debt service obligations from 2029. This structure may not effectively reduce future risks and could result in higher costs for Sri Lanka if economic conditions improve temporarily. Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations, July 16
Thailand's military conscription marches on, for now. Thailand continues to uphold its military conscription system despite calls for reform. Conscription, requiring young men to serve in the military for up to two years, has faced criticism from progressive political groups like the Move Forward Party (MFP). The MFP argues that the current system is outdated and contributes to human rights abuses and corruption within the military. Despite these calls for change, the entrenched power of the military and its alignment with the monarchy make immediate reform unlikely. The ongoing conscription is seen as a means to maintain the military's influence over Thai politics. Paul Chambers, East Asia Forum, July 16
Politics puppeteers Japan’s press freedom. Japan’s press freedom is increasingly influenced by political forces, notably the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The LDP exerts control over media narratives, particularly concerning sensitive topics like national security and foreign policy. This manipulation often results in self-censorship among journalists and media outlets, undermining independent journalism. Critics argue that this political interference is detrimental to democracy, as it stifles diverse viewpoints and critical reporting. To address these issues, it is essential for Japan to reinforce media independence and protect journalists from political pressure. David A McNeill, East Asia Forum, July 16
Has Bangladesh lost its footing in the China-India balancing act? Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's recent visits to China and India highlight a shift towards India, straining relations with China. Bangladesh's expectation of securing $5 billion in budget support from China fell through, with China offering only $137 million. Analysts believe Bangladesh's alignment with India's interests, including the Teesta River project, has led to China's reluctance. This shift raises concerns about Bangladesh's ability to balance its geopolitical relations effectively. Syful Islam, The Diplomat, July 16
US conservative agenda reveals possible cracks in alliance with South Korea. The Heritage Foundation's "Project 2025" proposes that a conservative U.S. administration might prioritize Taiwan over South Korea in conflicts, raising concerns about the strength of the U.S.-ROK alliance. This shift could foster fears of abandonment among South Korean conservatives, potentially weakening bilateral ties. The project highlights the need for South Korea to reassess its security strategy and diplomatic priorities in light of potential changes in U.S. foreign policy. Benjamin A. Engel, Korea Pro, July 16