Asia Daily: July 15, 2024

News

China set for third plenum that could prove a ‘defining moment’ of Xi Jinping era. China's Communist Party begins a key meeting to outline economic strategies for the next decade. The third plenum will review Xi Jinping’s achievements and set plans for 2035. The agenda includes tackling economic challenges, technology goals, and national security. Observers expect updates on economic policy, corruption investigations, and potential leadership changes. The meeting will produce a brief communique, followed by a detailed party document. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, July 15

Amnesty bill panel split over lese-majeste. A special House committee in Thailand is divided over whether to include offenses under Section 112 (lese-majeste) and Section 110 (violence against royalty) in an amnesty bill for political prisoners. The 35-member panel was formed to study the proposal after a similar bill by the Move Forward Party faced resistance. Opinions within the committee vary, and a decision has been deferred. The amnesty would cover politically motivated cases since 2006. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, July 13

Presidential office refuses to respond to 'unconstitutional, unlawful' hearing on Yoon's impeachment. The South Korean presidential office stated it will not respond to a parliamentary hearing on an online petition for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment. The hearing, initiated by the opposition, addresses allegations including first lady Kim Keon Hee's acceptance of a luxury handbag. The ruling People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the committee vote approving the hearings, dismissing them as invalid. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, July 15

Cambodian, Vietnamese leaders vow to expand ties, no discussion on Funan Techo Canal. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong committed to enhancing cooperation in trade, investment, defense, and security. The leaders emphasized the importance of high-level exchanges and resolving border issues but did not address the controversial Funan Techo Canal project. They pledged to bolster economic partnerships and continue fostering strong bilateral relations. Ry Sochan, The Phnom Penh Post, July 15

Vietnam, RoK commit to stronger public administration cooperation. Vietnamese Minister of Home Affairs Phạm Thị Thanh Trà and South Korean Minister of the Interior and Safety Lee Sang-min signed an agreement to boost public administration cooperation. Plans include a seminar on government innovation and increased information sharing for administrative reforms and digital transformation. The RoK will support Vietnam's efforts in public sector reform, civil service training, and modernization. Vietnam News, July 15

Oli returns as Nepal's fifth PM in five years, promising political stability. K.P. Sharma Oli was sworn in as Nepal’s prime minister, marking his fourth term and becoming the fifth PM in five years. Oli leads the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) and announced a 22-member cabinet. His return follows the loss of confidence in former PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Nepal has faced political instability since abolishing its monarchy in 2008, and Oli aims to ensure stability and attract investment. Reuters, July 15

China’s economy slowed in the last quarter as weak consumer demand dragged on growth. China’s economy grew at a 4.7% annual rate in Q2 2024, down from 5.3% in Q1. The National Bureau of Statistics cited weak consumer demand and reduced government spending as major factors. Despite challenges, recent data shows signs of stabilization, with factory output rising by 5.3% in June and higher-than-expected exports. Retail sales, however, remain below expectations, indicating continued economic difficulties. Elaine Kurtenbach, AP News, July 15

China, Russia start joint naval drills, days after NATO allies called Beijing a Ukraine war enabler. China and Russia launched joint naval exercises in Guangdong, focusing on anti-missile, sea strikes, and air defense maneuvers. The drills, which began on Sunday and will last until mid-July, follow NATO's declaration of China as a "decisive enabler" of Russia's actions in Ukraine. China refuted NATO's claims, asserting its neutral stance on the conflict. The exercises include tactical coordination and military simulations. AP News, July 15

Bangladesh students clash in job quota protests, at least 100 injured. Over 100 students were injured in Bangladesh during clashes over the government job quota system. Anti-quota protesters and supporters of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's Awami League fought at universities nationwide. The protests erupted after a court ordered the restoration of 30% job quotas for descendants of freedom fighters. Despite the top court's temporary suspension of the order, the unrest intensified when Hasina refused to meet the protesters' demands. Ruma Paul, Reuters, July 15

Tajikistan denies report of secret Chinese military base. Tajikistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied allegations from The Telegraph that China has a secret military base in the country. The report included satellite images suggesting the presence of a base with look-out towers and troops. The ministry firmly stated that there are no Chinese military bases in Tajikistan, clarifying that such issues are not part of bilateral relations between the two nations. The Times of Central Asia, July 15

Bigger budget for PH embassy in Prague eyed. Senator Robinhood Padilla has pledged to advocate for an increased budget for the Philippine Embassy in the Czech Republic. This initiative aims to support and protect the 10,000 Filipino workers permitted to enter the country annually. Padilla highlighted the Czech government's "equal pay" policy during a seminar and consular outreach for overseas Filipino workers. He emphasized the importance of improving embassy services to better assist Filipino workers and strengthen diplomatic ties between the Philippines and the Czech Republic. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, July 15

N. Korea holds meetings to discuss follow-up measures for policy goals. North Korea's Cabinet and provincial committees met to review policy performances and strategize for the second half of the year. The meetings follow a recent Workers' Party plenary session where Kim Jong-un praised the country's economic progress. The Cabinet's Party Committee, including Premier Kim Tok-hun and Vice Premier Pak Jong-gun, adopted supplementary decisions to ensure the implementation of key policy tasks. Kim Jong-un recently criticized officials for irresponsibility during an inspection in Samjiyon. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, July 15.

Taiwan steps up alertness after detecting test-firing by China’s missile unit. Taiwan's Defense Ministry reported monitoring "waves of test-firing" by China's Rocket Force in Inner Mongolia, leading to heightened alertness from its air force. This comes amid increased military activities by China around Taiwan. The test-firing follows recent Chinese military displays and U.S. assurances of support for Taiwan. The tension aligns with joint China-Russia naval drills and NATO's recent criticism of China as a significant enabler of Russia's actions in Ukraine. AP News, July 15

China expands visa-free access as foreign visitor numbers begin rebound. China has extended its 144-hour visa-free transit policy to three more entry ports: Lijiang Sanyi International Airport, Mohan railway port in Yunnan, and Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport in Henan, bringing the total to 37 ports. This expansion aims to boost inbound tourism and facilitate business travel. The policy now includes eight more cities in Yunnan, including Lijiang and Dali. In the first half of 2024, China saw a 152.7% increase in foreign visitors compared to the previous year. Coy Li, South China Morning Post, July 15

North Korea's Kim sacks 'irresponsible' officials over new town project. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has dismissed or demoted senior officials for their poor handling of the Samjiyon development project, aimed at creating a "socialist utopia." Kim criticized the officials for causing construction flaws and financial losses. Ri Sun Chol, the state construction control minister, was suspended and faces investigation. All construction inspection committee members were suspended, and other officials were demoted or are under review. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, July 13

Vietnam, China’s Hong Kong see significant cooperation potential. Vietnamese Consul General Lê Đức Hạnh and Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee highlighted potential collaboration in green finance, innovation, technology, and high-quality labor exchange. At a reception, Lee praised recent bilateral efforts, including eased work visas and increased student exchanges. Hạnh proposed continuing visa relaxations for Vietnamese citizens to benefit both sides. Lee acknowledged challenges, such as illegal immigration, but expressed confidence in continued positive developments. Vietnam News, July 14

Myanmar junta minister visits Russia for help to complete stalled steel plant again. Myanmar's Industry Minister Charlie Than visited Russia to seek assistance in resuming operations at the Pinpet steel plant in Shan State. The project, initially halted in 2017 due to financial concerns, is a joint venture between Myanmar's military-owned Myanmar Economic Corporation and Russia's Tyazhpromexport. The junta's renewed push for the plant's completion is driven by a need to bolster domestic steel production, which currently meets only 8% of the country's demand. The Irrawaddy, July 13

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan seek to reduce trade barriers. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are working to eliminate trade barriers and improve customs procedures to foster regional economic integration. Recent agreements focus on simplifying cross-border trade, enhancing industrial property rights, and streamlining customs processes at checkpoints. These efforts are part of a broader regional strategy supported by the United States to create a unified Central Asian market, promoting the seamless movement of goods and services. Eurasianet, July 15

Long Form

Constitutional Democrats in Disarray. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) is currently experiencing internal strife. Leadership struggles and a lack of coherent strategy have left the party unable to effectively challenge the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The CDP's difficulties are compounded by ideological splits within its ranks, with members unable to agree on a unified vision for the party's future. These issues raise questions about the CDP's ability to present a viable alternative to the LDP in upcoming elections. Tobias Harris,

Observing Japan

, July 15

Japan's Trouble with Classified Information. Japan's Self-Defense Force faces a major scandal over mishandling classified materials, resulting in the dismissal of Navy Chief Admiral Ryo Sakai and disciplinary actions against over 200 officials. Violations include sensitive information breaches, power abuse, and fraud. This issue strains Japan's counter-espionage and cyber defense capabilities, affecting relations with allies like the US. The defense ministry pledges reforms to restore trust and address systematic problems. Connor Fiddler,

Hub-and-Spokes

, July 15

Evaluating China's Economic Strength Through Tax Revenue. Tax revenue offers a more accurate measure of China's economic strength compared to GDP. Analyzing last year's tax data from various cities reveals regional disparities. Cities like Beijing and Shanghai lead in financial strength, while discrepancies between GDP and tax revenue indicate areas with economic weaknesses, particularly in real estate. This approach shows the importance of tax data in understanding economic conditions across different regions of China. Amber Zhang,

Baiguan - China Insights, Data, Context

, July 15

China and the EU Face a Summer of Trade Tensions. The EU and China are navigating increasing trade tensions this summer. Key issues include the EU's imposition of provisional countervailing duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles, prompting threats of retaliation from China. This dispute underscores broader concerns about trade imbalances, market access, and fair competition. The EU aims to address these through strategic dialogues and the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), which remains under negotiation.

SOAPBOX

, July 15

Japan Struggles to Implement Dual-Pricing for Foreign Visitors. Japan faces challenges in adopting a dual-pricing system aimed at foreign visitors, intended to boost tourism and local spending. The system, which sets different prices for locals and tourists, has met with logistical issues and public backlash. Critics argue it creates confusion and potential discrimination, complicating the implementation process. Efforts to refine the system continue amidst concerns about its impact on Japan's tourism sector and international perception. Mark Kennedy,

Real Gaijin

, July 14

The Role for Pacific Media in Charting a Pragmatic Global Outlook. Pacific media play a critical role in shaping the region's global perspective amidst intense geopolitical competition. The 2024 Pacific International Media Conference highlighted the need for Pacific nations to assert their independence, with media as a key tool. Discussions centered on challenges faced by the under-resourced media sector and the influence of external forces on local journalism. Strategies for maintaining editorial independence and leveraging media for regional development were explored. Shailendra Bahadur Singh and Amit Sarwal, Lowy Institute, July 16

Time to Jumpstart Australia-India Clean Energy Cooperation. Australia and India are working to advance their clean energy partnership, but progress has stalled despite initial momentum from 2023 bilateral agreements. Key initiatives include taskforces on solar and green hydrogen and investments by Indian companies in Australian renewable energy. Challenges remain due to coal's dominance in trade and a lack of mutual understanding of policies. The upcoming Australia India Renewables Dialogue aims to revitalize cooperation. Lisa Singh and Ujjwal Krishna, Lowy Institute, July 15

Russia’s Disruptive Actions Show that European and Asian Security Cannot Be Decoupled. The growing alliance between Russia and China shows the interconnected nature of European and Asian security. As Russia continues its aggression in Ukraine, its partnership with China strengthens, with both nations seeking to undermine U.S. influence and promote a multipolar world. This alliance poses threats to NATO and necessitates closer cooperation between Western and Asian allies to counteract these challenges. Angela Stent, Brookings, July 15

Public Sector Leadership Can Power Indonesia’s Climate Change Mitigation. Indonesia's public sector is crucial in driving the country's climate change mitigation efforts. Despite facing challenges, such as inadequate resources and bureaucratic hurdles, the government's role in spearheading policies and programs can substantially influence the nation's environmental trajectory. Strengthening public sector leadership could improve the implementation of climate initiatives, enhance regulatory frameworks, and foster collaboration with international partners. Effective governance and strategic investments in sustainable infrastructure are essential for Indonesia to meet its climate goals. Gaffar Muaqaffi, East Asia Forum, July 13

When Modi Met Moscow. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Moscow highlights India's continued strategic balancing act amidst global power shifts. The meeting reinforced longstanding defense ties and explored new avenues in energy and trade. Modi's engagement with Russia stresses India's intent to maintain diverse partnerships, even as it strengthens ties with Western powers. Sumit Ganguly, East Asia Forum, July 15

How Is China’s Global Education Strategy Evolving? China's global education strategy increasingly focuses on attracting students from Africa and Southeast Asia, with an emphasis on science and technology programs. Initiatives like the Science Technology Backyard (STB) program at China Agricultural University aim to enhance agricultural knowledge and research. These efforts align with China's Belt and Road Initiative and seek to bolster its international reputation and influence. Chinese universities are also establishing partnerships and research facilities abroad to further their global reach. Pippa Ebel, The Diplomat, July 15

Japan's New Enemy in Fight to Lure Immigrant Workers: The Tumbling Yen. Japan's weakening yen is making it difficult to attract immigrant workers. As the yen drops, the real earnings of migrant workers decrease, making Japan a less attractive destination compared to other countries. High living costs and significant deductions from salaries further exacerbate the issue. Specific measures, such as eliminating brokers and improving the treatment of migrant workers, are necessary to maintain the flow of essential labor to support Japan's economy. Atsushi Tomiyama, East Asia Forum, July 15

Bricks in the Wall: How North Korean Textbooks Indoctrinate Support for Regime. North Korea uses grade school textbooks to indoctrinate students with regime propaganda, legitimizing the Kim family's rule. This educational approach shapes defectors' worldviews and impacts their integration into democratic South Korea. The textbooks highlight the regime's priorities and strategies in maintaining control over its population. Myunghee Lee, NK News, July 15

Seoul Braces for Potential US Policy Shift After Trump Assassination Attempt. South Korea is preparing for possible changes in U.S. policy following an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. The incident may boost Trump's popularity, impacting U.S.-South Korea relations and influencing domestic defense and economic strategies in Seoul. South Korean investors are shifting towards overseas assets and domestic defense stocks in anticipation of potential policy shifts. John Lee, Korea Pro, July 15

The ‘Second China Shock’ and Its Implications for Southeast Asia. China's technological advancements and manufacturing dominance pose challenges for Southeast Asian economies. As China progresses in high-value sectors, it creates competitive pressure, potentially crowding out ASEAN firms. U.S. and EU protectionist measures further complicate the situation by penalizing ASEAN countries integrated with China's supply chains. The uneven distribution of foreign direct investment in the region exacerbates economic disparities among ASEAN members. This necessitates strategic adjustments by Southeast Asian policymakers to navigate the evolving economic landscape. John Lee, Fulcrum, July 15

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