Asia Daily: July 11, 2024
News
Taiwan monitors Chinese military surge, calls China a threat to stability. Taiwan is closely monitoring Chinese military activity after numerous warplanes, including J-16 fighters and H-6 bombers, joined the Shandong aircraft carrier for Pacific drills. Taiwan's defense ministry detected 66 Chinese military aircraft around the island, with 39 flying to the south and southeast. President Lai Ching-te emphasized the rising threat to regional stability from China's actions. This surge coincides with a NATO summit addressing China's global security challenges. Ben Blanchard and Roger Tung, Reuters, July 11
Yoon, Biden warn any N.K. nuclear attack will be met with 'overwhelming,' 'decisive' response. Presidents Yoon Suk Yeol and Joe Biden warned that any North Korean nuclear attack on South Korea would prompt a "swift, overwhelming and decisive" response. This came after their NATO summit meeting in Washington, emphasizing progress in joint deterrence efforts. They praised the signing of nuclear deterrence guidelines, enhancing U.S. extended deterrence commitment. The guidelines involve South Korea's conventional support for U.S. nuclear operations and include improved joint exercises and training. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, July 11
Japan destroyer sailed into China territorial waters despite warnings. A Japanese destroyer entered China's territorial waters near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, ignoring multiple warnings from Chinese authorities. The incursion prompted strong protests from Beijing, which accused Japan of violating its sovereignty. This incident has heightened tensions between the two countries, with both sides exchanging diplomatic complaints. Japan maintains that its actions are in accordance with international law and its right to free navigation. Kyodo News, July 11
Senate orders arrest of Guo. The Philippine Senate Committee on Women, Children, Family Relations, and Gender Equality ordered the arrest of suspended Bamban, Tarlac Mayor Alice Guo (Guo Hua Ping) and seven others. This action was taken during a probe into alleged illegal activities of Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs), including human trafficking, torture, and online scams. Despite repeated summons, Guo and the others failed to attend the inquiry, prompting the Senate to issue arrest warrants to ensure their appearance. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, July 11
Quota protests heat up as govt mulls hard line. Anti-quota protesters in Bangladesh intensified their demonstrations, ignoring police warnings and breaking barricades. Students from various universities and colleges have been demanding reforms to the government job quota system. Clashes with police were reported in Cumilla and Chattogram, resulting in injuries. The government, considering tougher measures, has urged students to return to their studies. Additional forces and riot equipment have been deployed, and legal action may be taken against those continuing to block roads. The Daily Star, July 11
China’s military commits to full ‘rectification’ in corruption investigations’ wake. The Central Military Commission announced a comprehensive "rectification" campaign for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) following corruption charges against former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe. The initiative aims to enhance political education, discipline, and combat-readiness, aligning with President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on party loyalty and integrity within the military. The campaign will include personnel reviews, policy assessments, and promotion of a sense of responsibility among PLA members. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, July 11
Myanmar banks restrict cash withdrawals as financial crisis intensifies. Myanmar banks have imposed restrictions on cash withdrawals due to a worsening financial crisis. Customers face limits on how much they can withdraw daily, leading to long lines and frustration. The restrictions come amid a sharp decline in the kyat’s value and rising inflation. The central bank's measures aim to control the liquidity crunch but have exacerbated public anxiety over financial stability. Businesses and individuals are struggling to access their funds, further straining the economy. The Irrawaddy, The Irrawaddy, July 11
Former Indonesian agriculture minister sentenced to 10 years for corruption. Indonesia’s anti-graft court sentenced former agriculture minister Syahrul Yasin Limpo to 10 years in prison for corruption-related extortion, abuse of power, and bribery involving ministry contracts. Limpo, the sixth Cabinet member convicted under President Joko Widodo, was fined 300 million rupiah and ordered to pay an additional four months’ imprisonment if unpaid. Limpo, who denies wrongdoing, used the bribes for personal luxuries and political activities. Tatan Syuflana and Niniek Karmini, AP News, July 11
Việt Nam, Laos giving highest priority to their special relations: State leaders. State leaders from Việt Nam and Laos reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening their bilateral relationship, emphasizing political, economic, and cultural cooperation. During their meeting, they discussed addressing regional and global challenges together, focusing on mutual stability and development. Both nations plan to support each other in various fields to promote growth and stability. The leaders also highlighted the importance of their historical bond and expressed determination to maintain strong ties for future progress. Vietnam News, July 11
Marcos vetoes PNP reform bill. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has vetoed the proposed Philippine National Police (PNP) Organizational Reforms Act, citing concerns over potential unfair salary disparities among officers. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin stated that the bill aimed to implement changes to police salaries that could create inequities within the force. Marcos emphasized the importance of ensuring that any reforms to the police structure are fair, clear, and beneficial to all personnel involved. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, July 11
South Korea to deploy laser weapons to intercept North Korean drones. South Korea announced plans to deploy laser weapons systems by the end of the year to counter North Korean drone threats. The “Block-I” system, developed by Hanwha Aerospace, will target small drones and multi-copters with high precision. Despite successful tests, experts question the effectiveness due to the limitations of current radar systems. This initiative follows North Korean drone incursions and leader Kim Jong Un's promise to enhance unmanned combat capabilities. Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, July 11
US President Joe Biden renews Hong Kong’s ‘emergency status’ in executive order. President Joe Biden renewed Hong Kong's "emergency status," marking the fourth renewal since the 2020 executive order by former President Trump. The order, a response to Beijing's national security law, removes Hong Kong's preferential trade status. Biden stated that recent actions by China undermine Hong Kong's autonomy, posing a threat to U.S. national security and foreign policy. The renewal affects economic treatment and technology exports, with Hong Kong passport holders now treated similarly to Chinese passport holders. Holly Chik, South China Morning Post, July 11
Germany to bar Chinese companies’ components from core parts of its 5G networks. Germany will ban Huawei and ZTE components from its 5G core networks by 2026, and from critical management systems by 2029. This decision, following negotiations with Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, and Telefonica, aims to reduce security risks and dependency on Chinese suppliers. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser emphasized the need to protect Germany's telecommunications infrastructure from sabotage and espionage. The move aligns with actions taken by other countries, including the U.S., UK, and Japan. Geir Moulson, AP News, July 11
NA Standing Committee’s 35th session concludes. The 35th session of the National Assembly (NA) Standing Committee concluded with discussions on various legislative matters. The session reviewed and gave opinions on several draft laws, including those related to land, housing, and business regulations. Committee members emphasized the importance of ensuring the legal framework's consistency and feasibility. The session also addressed issues such as public investment and socio-economic development plans. The outcomes aim to improve legislative quality and support national development goals. Vietnam News, July 11
Satellite images suggest China has been practising for strikes on US jets. Satellite images from May 29 show China's military using mock-ups of U.S. F-35 and F-22 jets and an aircraft carrier in Xinjiang's deserts for training. The images suggest the PLA is honing long-range missile strike capabilities, potentially targeting US bases in Alaska, Guam, and Hawaii. The drills align with China's strategy to counter U.S. naval power in the Pacific. Experts say these exercises aim to improve precision strikes on both sea and land targets. Sylvie Zhuang, South China Morning Post, July 11
Bhumjaithai MP suspended for vote buying. Thailand's Constitutional Court has suspended Bhumjaithai Party MP Wisarn Techathirawat following accusations of vote buying. The court ordered the suspension while it considers the allegations, which were raised by the Election Commission. The case involves claims that Wisarn and his aides distributed cash and gifts to secure votes during the recent election. If found guilty, he could face a permanent ban from politics. The suspension is part of broader efforts to address electoral fraud in Thailand. Bangkok Post, July 11
Kyrgyzstan and Russia to expand cooperation across the board. Kyrgyzstan and Russia agreed to enhance cooperation during the 25th Intergovernmental Kyrgyz-Russian Commission meeting in Krasnoyarsk. The discussions, led by Kyrgyz Prime Minister Akylbek Japarov and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, focused on trade, economic relations, scientific and technical cooperation, and humanitarian ties. Key topics included increasing bilateral trade, attracting Russian banks to Kyrgyzstan, and expanding educational and cultural projects. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 11
Dollar falls sharply to 157 yen range after US CPI data release. The US dollar dropped significantly to the lower 157 yen range following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a lower-than-expected inflation rate. The CPI growth rate was lower than analysts' forecasts, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease its monetary tightening policies. This decline in the dollar's value against the yen marks a significant shift in the currency markets, impacting global financial dynamics. Kyodo News, July 11
Long Form
Missing the FDI Boat. Vietnam has failed to attract as much foreign direct investment (FDI) as its regional peers, despite its potential and past success in securing investment. Challenges include inconsistent policies, poor infrastructure, and a lack of skilled labor. In contrast, other Southeast Asian countries have been more successful in attracting FDI. Without significant improvements, Vietnam may continue to lag behind in securing foreign investment.
, , July 11Uzbekistan Gussies Up Its Potemkin Democracy. Uzbekistan has attempted to present an image of democracy while maintaining authoritarian practices. The recent constitutional referendum was portrayed as a democratic step but actually strengthens President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's hold on power. Superficial reforms, lack of genuine political competition, and restricted media freedom underscore the contrast between Uzbekistan's democratic facade and its ongoing authoritarian governance.
, , July 11Is India Moving in the Direction to Have a Strategic Culture as Understood in the West? India is evolving its strategic culture to align more closely with Western concepts. Defense and foreign policies are increasingly adopting strategic frameworks similar to those of Western nations. The historical context of India's strategic thinking, recent policy shifts, and the influence of global geopolitical trends are explored. India’s strategic culture is becoming more sophisticated and proactive in addressing regional and global challenges. Dr. Manoj Kumar Mishra, The Geopolitics, July 11
Regime Collapse in Myanmar's Rakhine. Myanmar's Rakhine State is experiencing a breakdown of government control. Power struggles and escalating violence between the Arakan Army and Myanmar's military are impacting local governance and civilian life. The deteriorating situation in Rakhine could lead to broader instability within Myanmar. David Scott Matheison, Lowy Institute, July 11
The Global Evolution of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has evolved from a regional security alliance to a significant global player. The history and expansion of the SCO, including its increasing influence in geopolitical affairs, are traced. Strategic priorities such as economic cooperation, counterterrorism, and political stability are discussed. The growing membership and interest from other countries highlight the SCO's role in shaping global power dynamics and its potential future trajectory. Xiaoli Guo, Lowy Institute, July 11
India’s Act East Ambition Must Navigate Myanmar. India's "Act East" policy faces challenges due to instability in Myanmar. Efforts to enhance economic and security ties with Southeast Asian countries are complicated by Myanmar's political turmoil. Myanmar is a critical gateway for India’s connectivity projects and regional partnerships. Successfully implementing the "Act East" strategy requires careful management of diplomatic and strategic engagements with Myanmar. Anubhav S Goswami, Lowy Institute, July 11
A Surprising Litmus Test for New Caledonia’s Independence Parties. New Caledonia’s upcoming vote on independence from France is revealing deep political divisions and maneuvers among pro-independence and loyalist factions. The implications of the vote for New Caledonia's future, including potential economic and social impacts, are significant. Denise Fisher, Lowy Institute, July 11
Expect the Expected with Prabowo’s Incoming China Policy. Indonesia’s Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is likely to maintain a pragmatic and balanced approach towards China if he becomes president. Policy focuses are expected to include strengthening economic ties while addressing security concerns in the South China Sea. Continuity in Indonesia’s diplomatic strategy will emphasize cooperation without compromising on national interests. Prabowo's experience and past interactions with China indicate a steady and predictable bilateral relationship. Aris Ananta, East Asia Forum, July 11
What Other ASEAN Members Can Learn from Vietnam’s Renewable Boom. Vietnam’s rapid expansion in renewable energy offers valuable lessons for other ASEAN countries. Key factors driving this growth include strong government support, favorable policies, and investment in infrastructure. Vietnam's approach has led to significant increases in solar and wind energy capacity, promoting energy security and sustainability. By adopting similar strategies, other ASEAN members can accelerate their own renewable energy development. Ahmed Albayrak, East Asia Forum, July 12
Diversifying Investment in Indonesia’s Mining Sector. Indonesia is taking steps to diversify its mining sector to attract more foreign investment. Efforts include regulatory reforms, improving infrastructure, and promoting sustainable practices. These initiatives aim to reduce reliance on traditional minerals like coal and nickel, encouraging investment in other resources such as copper and gold. The diversification strategy is expected to improve economic resilience and ensure long-term growth in the mining industry. Gracelin Baskaran, CSIS, July 11
Bangladeshi University Students Protest Quota System Reforms. University students in Bangladesh are protesting against recent reforms to the government quota system for public sector jobs. The reforms, intended to reduce favoritism and promote meritocracy, have been met with backlash from students who fear reduced job opportunities. The protests show the tensions between government efforts to modernize employment policies and student concerns about fair access to public sector employment. Saqlain Rizve, The Diplomat, July 11
India Must Forge Reliable Crystal Ball to Forecast Its Oil Demand. India needs to develop more accurate methods to forecast its oil demand to better navigate future energy challenges. Precise demand predictions are crucial for economic planning, energy security, and reducing dependency on oil imports. Enhancing data collection and analytical capabilities, as well as incorporating technological advancements, are key strategies to improve forecasting accuracy. This is essential for India’s sustainable energy future. Vandana Hari, Nikkei Asia, July 11
What to Make of Reports That China Plans to Send Back All North Korean Workers. Reports indicate that China plans to repatriate all North Korean workers by the end of the year. This move is seen as part of Beijing's retaliation over improved DPRK-Russia ties. The repatriation could have significant economic implications for North Korea, which relies heavily on remittances from its overseas workers. The decision also reflects China’s complex balancing act in managing its relationship with North Korea amid Russia-North Korean Reproachment. Gabriela Bernal, NK News, July 11
North Korea Mourns One Kim Leader While Glorifying Another. North Korea’s state media is currently focused on mourning Kim Il Sung while glorifying Kim Jong Un. The coverage includes extensive tributes to Kim Il Sung’s legacy, alongside narratives that showcase Kim Jong Un’s leadership and achievements. This dual focus serves to reinforce the continuity of the Kim family’s rule and consolidate the regime’s authority. The state media’s portrayal highlights the strategic use of historical reverence to bolster the current leadership’s image. Seung-Yeon Chung, NK News, July 11
Seoul’s Controversial Flagpole Plan Stirs Debate About Role of National Symbols. Seoul’s plan to erect the world's tallest flagpole has sparked a debate about the role and significance of national symbols in South Korea. Proponents argue that the flagpole will boost national pride and tourism, while critics view it as an unnecessary expenditure and a potential provocation towards North Korea. The controversy reflects broader discussions on nationalism and the appropriate ways to express national identity. Joon Ha Park, Korea Pro, July 11
How Much of Vietnam’s Policy Reform Is Due to FTAs? Vietnam's recent policy reforms are influenced by free trade agreements (FTAs). FTAs have driven changes in regulatory frameworks, labor standards, and environmental policies to meet international trade requirements. These reforms aim to enhance Vietnam's competitiveness and integrate its economy into global markets. FTAs play a critical role in shaping Vietnam’s economic policies and have a broader impact on the country’s development trajectory. Jayant Menon, Fulcrum, July 11
Corruption Eradication in Indonesia: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back Efforts to combat corruption in Indonesia are facing significant setbacks despite some progress. Challenges include political interference, weakening of anti-corruption agencies, and entrenched corrupt practices. Recent reforms intended to strengthen anti-corruption measures have been undermined by actions that protect powerful interests. Indonesia's fight against corruption is hindered by inconsistent political will and ineffective enforcement. Astrid Meilasari-Sugiana, Gunardi Endro, Siwage Dharma Negara, Fulcrum, July 11
Myanmar’s Military Funds Its War Through Forex Policy. Myanmar's military is using foreign exchange policies to fund its ongoing conflict. Control over foreign currency and restrictive financial regulations enable the military to divert funds from the economy to support its operations. This exacerbates the country's economic crisis and undermines financial stability. Jared Bissinger, Fulcrum, July 11