China
Tariffs drive U.S. clothing imports from China to 22-year low in May. U.S. apparel imports from China dropped to $556 million in May, the lowest monthly level since 2003, amid steep tariffs of up to 145% imposed by the Trump administration. Retailers shifted sourcing to Vietnam, Bangladesh, India and Mexico, which saw a 12% year-on-year rise in apparel exports to the U.S. Despite a trade deal, U.S. companies continue reducing reliance on China. Helen Reid and Siddharth Cavale, Reuters, July 9
Beijing denies German accusation that PLA laser-targeted aircraft patrolling Red Sea. China rejected Germany’s claim that a PLA frigate used a laser against a German surveillance plane in the Red Sea during an EU-led mission. Berlin summoned China’s ambassador, calling the act unacceptable and dangerous. Beijing stated the accusation was inconsistent with its records and urged fact-based dialogue. The aircraft aborted its mission and returned to Djibouti. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, July 10
Japan
Japan opens Osprey base on Kyushu as China ramps up military presence. Japan’s Ground Self-Defense Force opened a new base in Saga Prefecture to host its V-22 Osprey aircraft, reinforcing defenses of remote islands amid rising Chinese military activity. The move supports the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, tasked with island defense. Though safety concerns persist following past crashes, Tokyo plans to relocate 16 Ospreys from Chiba by mid-August. Local protests continue. Kyodo News, July 9
South Korea
South Korea ex-leader Yoon returns to jail as court grants warrant. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol was jailed again after a Seoul court approved his arrest over a failed martial law attempt, citing concerns he might destroy evidence. Yoon faces charges of insurrection, obstruction of justice and abuse of power, which could carry life imprisonment or the death penalty. The ruling strengthens a special counsel probe launched after his April impeachment. Joyce Lee and Ju-Min Park, Reuters, July 9
Top military officers of S. Korea, U.S. to meet amid USFK role change speculation. South Korea’s JCS Chairman Adm. Kim Myung-soo will meet U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine in Seoul on Thursday to discuss alliance strategy amid speculation over changes to U.S. Forces Korea. The meeting precedes a trilateral session with Japan focused on North Korea and regional security. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, July 9
North Korea
Russian foreign minister to visit North Korea this week in latest sign of expanding ties. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit North Korea for three days starting Friday, deepening bilateral ties amid Moscow’s war in Ukraine. His trip follows a June visit by Russian security chief Sergei Shoigu, who arranged for North Korean workers to help rebuild Russia’s Kursk region. Kim Tong-Hyung, Associated Press, July 9
N. Korea elevates chemical weapons as strategic deterrent. North Korea is systematically developing chemical weapons as core battlefield tools and strategic assets alongside nuclear arms. Internal documents show the regime views them as a primary means of incapacitating enemy command before a nuclear strike. The military operates seven chemical brigades under the Nuclear-Chemical Defense Bureau, conducts live-agent drills, and deploys hidden facilities masked as civilian factories. Targets include major military and political centers. Lee Sang-yong, Daily NK, July 9
Thailand
Thailand preparing $1.2 billion in measures to address U.S. tariff impact. Thailand is planning over 40 billion baht ($1.22 billion) in economic measures to counteract the effects of new 36% U.S. tariffs set to begin August 1, Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul said. He also urged the central bank to ease monetary policy. The package is part of broader efforts to protect exports and stabilize the economy amid rising trade pressure. Kitiphong Thaichareon and Orathai Sriring, Reuters, July 9
Thailand parliament starts debates on sensitive political amnesty bills. Thailand’s parliament began debating five draft amnesty bills covering offenses tied to political demonstrations since 2005. The proposals, introduced by political parties and civil groups, exclude corruption and royal insult cases but aim to resolve two decades of unrest involving over 5,000 charged individuals. Panarat Thepgumpanat and Panu Wongcha-Um, Reuters, July 9
Vietnam
Vietnam to introduce measures to cope with U.S. tariffs, trade official says. Vietnam will implement policies to improve product quality and diversify export markets in response to new U.S. tariffs, Deputy Trade Minister Phan Thi Thang said. The country faces a 20% levy on exports and 40% on transhipments from third countries. Authorities aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. and leverage Vietnam’s 16 free trade agreements. Khanh Vu and Huong Nguyen, Reuters, July 9
Myanmar
Kachin national organisation says leader in China for health reasons. The Kachin Independence Organisation stated that its chairman, Gen. N’Ban La, is in China for a medical checkup, denying reports he is under house arrest. Local media claimed China detained him to pressure the Kachin Independence Army to end military operations against Myanmar’s junta. He was reportedly summoned before being placed under restrictions, echoing past detentions of ethnic commanders. Sa Tun Aung, Myanmar Now, July 9
Philippines
Philippines plans to negotiate with U.S. to lower tariffs, envoy to Washington says. The Philippines will seek to reduce the new 20% U.S. tariff on its exports, up from a previously announced 17%, according to Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez. The country aims to start negotiations following President Donald Trump’s August 1 tariff notice. In 2024, U.S.-Philippines goods trade reached $23.5 billion, with a $4.9 billion U.S. trade deficit. Karen Lema, Reuters, July 9
Marcos ratings rebound, Sara declines. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s approval rating rose to 62% in the second quarter, up from 55% in March, according to PUBLiCUS Asia, as public satisfaction improved on inflation, job creation and law enforcement. Vice President Sara Duterte’s rating fell to 43%, amid criticism over her education leadership and political friction. Senator Raffy Tulfo topped presidential preference polls, with Marcos and Duterte trailing. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, July 10
Indonesia
Indonesia tariff negotiator to meet Lutnick in US, aims to tout natural resources. Indonesia’s chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto will meet U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to push for reduced tariffs on Indonesian goods, which face a 32% U.S. levy starting August 1. Jakarta is offering near-zero tariffs on U.S. imports and increased purchases totaling $34 billion. Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters, July 9
Malaysia
Malaysia confirms existence of document central to ex-PM Najib’s house arrest bid, reports say. Malaysia’s Attorney-General’s Chambers acknowledged the existence of a royal addendum order that ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak claims allows him to serve his graft sentence under house arrest. While the government previously denied knowledge of the document, a federal court hearing revealed its existence was not disputed. Najib seeks a judicial review to compel enforcement of the order. Rozanna Latiff and Danial Azhar, Reuters, July 9
Malaysia will not cross ‘red lines’ in U.S. tariff negotiations, minister says. Malaysia will not agree to U.S. demands that compromise national sovereignty in ongoing tariff talks, Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz said, citing issues such as digital taxes, e-commerce, halal standards and procurement. Despite a 25% U.S. tariff set for August 1, Malaysia remains optimistic about a deal, offering Boeing purchases and tech agreements while emphasizing national interests. Rozanna Latiff and Mandy Leong, Reuters, July 9
Taiwan
Taiwan launches biggest war games with simulated attacks against military command. Taiwan began its largest-ever Han Kuang military drills, simulating attacks on command infrastructure to test decentralized defense in the event of a Chinese invasion. The 10-day exercises involve 22,000 reservists, HIMARS rocket systems, and Sky Sword missiles. China dismissed the drills as posturing. Yimou Lee, Ann Wang, Greg Torode and Faith Hung, Reuters, July 9
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan advances new cross-border transport corridor with China via Bedel Pass. Kyrgyzstan is developing a new transport route through the Bedel Pass to strengthen trade with China and reduce reliance on weather-prone mountain routes. Deputy Cabinet Chairman Bakyt Torobaev met Chinese officials to coordinate construction of the Barskoon-Uchturfan-Aksu highway. The route is expected to be operational by 2027 and serve as a key transit link. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, July 9
Northeast Asia
China's Rare Earth Export Restrictions and Other Countries' Responses: Strategies for the Main Battleground of Economic Security. China’s April 2025 export controls on seven heavy rare earths, which are critical for sectors including EVs, wind energy, aerospace, and defense. They have disrupted global production and tripled prices for some elements. These restrictions, enacted under national security laws, demonstrate China's dominance: it controls 68% of global rare earth mining and over 90% of refining, particularly for heavy rare earths. Western democracies are urgently diversifying supply chains. The U.S. has expanded domestic production and secured agreements with Ukraine, while Japan has invested in refining projects in Malaysia and France and is developing rare-earth-free technologies. Projections show China's refining share may drop to 78% by 2040. However, global cooperation will be essential to address environmental risks tied to rare earth extraction and ensure sustainable, secure supply chains. Yuki Kobayashi, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, July 9
The EU Sees Early Successes in Using Foreign Subsidy Regulation Against Chinese Companies. The European Union has begun enforcing its Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) to address the market distortions caused by state-backed Chinese firms. Since 2024, Brussels has investigated Chinese companies across sectors including railways, wind turbines, security equipment, and electric vehicles. Actions have led to withdrawals from tenders and ongoing scrutiny, signaling growing EU resolve to shield its single market. China has criticized the FSR as discriminatory and burdensome, but the EU views it as essential to counter unfair competitive advantages. While the FSR marks early success, the EU may need to move beyond reactive tools and toward a more centralized industrial policy akin to China’s model to ensure long-term economic sovereignty. Andreas Mischer, China Observers, July 10
Demolition of Mt. Kumgang Tourist Area Slowly Drags On. North Korea’s dismantling of the Mt. Kumgang Tourist Area, once a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, continues at a sluggish pace. Recent satellite imagery confirms minor progress, including the removal of small buildings and ongoing but slow demolition of the 12-story Kumgang Family Reunion Center. The Ananti Golf Resort’s main club and spa building has been razed to its foundation, and the South Korean-owned gas station at the port was cleared in March 2025. Despite Kim Jong Un’s 2019 call for redevelopment, no new construction has followed. The site’s gradual erasure signals a continued rejection of South Korean presence without any clear vision for domestic tourism development.
Martyn Williams, 38 North, July 9
No troops, no demands: China’s new appeal in a war-weary world. China’s restrained stance during the Iran-Israel conflict has improved its global appeal, particularly among nations disillusioned with militarized power politics. Rather than asserting influence through force, Beijing espouses non-intervention, long-term stability, and multilateralism, advocating UN-led conflict resolution. Recent forums in Tianjin and Beijing showcased this strategy, attracting strong interest from Middle Eastern and Global South participants. Premier Li Qiang warned against global fragmentation and called for economic cooperation. China’s diplomatic neutrality has drawn capital inflows, over US$33 billion in May 2025 alone, especially from Gulf states. With rising skepticism toward Western interventionism, China’s model of engagement without ideological demands or military presence resonates as a credible alternative for many war-weary nations. Jing Lin, ThinkChina, July 9
Southeast Asia
Vietnam and Cambodia revamp economic partnership. Facing punitive US tariffs and growing Chinese influence, Vietnam and Cambodia have deepened economic ties through new trade agreements, infrastructure projects, and tourism initiatives. A February 2025 summit in Ho Chi Minh City marked a change toward practical cooperation, producing bilateral commitments on trade and investment. Vietnam remains Cambodia’s top ASEAN investor, with US$3.5 billion in cumulative investments, and trade between the two reached US$10 billion in 2024. Cambodia benefits from supply chain integration and reduced dependence on China, while Vietnam gains a cost-effective manufacturing base. Despite unresolved political tensions, border issues, and historical sensitivities, both countries see pragmatic economic engagement as a buffer against global instability and geopolitical pressures. Khac Giang Nguyen, East Asia Forum, July 9
Drama in Manila: Duterte vs Marcos Feud Determines Future of the Philippines. The intensifying power struggle between former President Rodrigo Duterte and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has reshaped Philippine politics and foreign policy. Duterte’s arrest by the ICC has sparked national unrest, deepened dynastic divisions, and polarized Philippine politics ahead of the 2028 election. While Marcos has changed Manila’s alignment back toward the U.S., strengthening security ties with Washington, Tokyo, and Canberra, the Duterte faction continues to challenge his leadership. The 2025 midterms delivered no clear mandate, reflecting a volatile electorate. With the Philippines at the nexus of the U.S.-China rivalry, its foreign policy direction may ultimately depend on which domestic dynasty prevails. Alice Quan, Sino-Southeast Initiative, July 9
‘Made in Singapore’ to bypass US tariffs? Not so easy. As the U.S. reinstates tariffs under President Trump, companies are exploring ways to label goods as “Made in Singapore” to avoid rising trade barriers. However, strict origin rules, high production costs, and regulatory enforcement complicate the strategy. Firms like Haili Singapore and Sing Lun Holdings face pressure to move sourcing across Southeast Asia, but face tight margins and compliance challenges. Singapore’s 10% baseline tariff still makes it vulnerable, and any further hikes could erode profits. Authorities have increased scrutiny, citing nearly 690 origin-related violations since 2020. Singapore Customs mandates that products must undergo substantial transformation, with at least 25% local content, to qualify for origin certificates. Compliance burdens and geopolitical risks pose ongoing difficulties, especially for SMEs. Liu Liu, ThinkChina, July 9
Mahathir Mohamad at 100: Monumental Achievements, Mixed Legacies. Turning 100, Mahathir Mohamad remains a towering figure in Malaysian history, celebrated for his transformative leadership and criticized for authoritarian tendencies. His first 22-year premiership saw macroeconomic growth, sweeping infrastructure development, and civil service reforms. He promoted moderate Islam, strengthened ties with East Asia, and elevated Malaysia’s global standing. Yet, his embrace of ethnic-based affirmative action, erosion of institutional checks, and autocratic governance cast a long shadow. His second term ended in political instability after refusing to hand over power. Once the architect of modern Malaysia, Mahathir now occupies a marginal role, his legacy marked equally by ambition and controversy. Tricia Yeoh and Francis E. Hutchinson, FULCRUM, July 10
Eating Chinese Soft Power. Chinese food and beverage brands have surged across Southeast Asia, led by chains like Mixue, which now rivals global giants in store count. Bolstered by trade agreements and competitive pricing, Chinese F&B outlets exploit both consumer demand and gaps left by saturated domestic markets. Over 6,100 outlets operate regionally, often targeting areas with large ethnic Chinese communities. Though economic motivations primarily drive this expansion, their growing visibility creates a subtle “inverse” country-of-origin effect, positive product experiences influencing perceptions of China. However, persistent safety concerns, occasional cultural missteps, and geopolitical tensions continue to temper public sentiment. As Chinese soft power grows through everyday consumption, Southeast Asia must navigate its implications for local businesses and regional identity. Isabelle Chua, FULCRUM, July 9
Oceania
Remarks reveal enduring sexist norms in Samoan politics. During a no-confidence debate in March 2025, opposition MP Fuiono Tenina Crichton dismissed Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa’s leadership by suggesting she needed a husband to advise her. Though Fiame survived the motion, her minority government was dissolved by Samoa’s Head of State three months later. Despite strong public support for women in politics (88% in a 2021 survey), sexist rhetoric persists, revealing entrenched cultural beliefs. Fiame’s long political tenure and legacy defy such views, yet attacks like Crichton’s aim to delegitimize her precisely because she is unmarried and powerful. A 2025 study found women in Pacific parliaments face disproportionately higher rates of online abuse and sexist behavior. This pattern highlights a broader campaign to suppress female political leadership across the region. Sonia Palmieri, East Asia Forum, July 10