Asia Daily: January 9, 2025
South Korea's Yoon to accept court decision even if it ends presidency, lawyer says. Suspended South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will abide by the Constitutional Court’s ruling on his impeachment, even if it removes him from office, his lawyer Yoon Kab-keun said Thursday. The court began hearings on December 27, though Yoon initially ignored requests to submit legal briefs. In a separate investigation into Yoon’s alleged insurrection tied to his December 3 martial law declaration, his security team blocked a police arrest attempt last week. Yoon’s legal team has criticized the arrest warrant as politically motivated and vowed to challenge the process. Ju-min Park, Reuters, January 9
South Korean lawmakers seek independent probe as Yoon’s lawyers warn detention may spark ‘civil war.’ Opposition parties in South Korea introduced a bill Thursday calling for a special prosecutor to investigate impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief December martial law declaration, which they allege may have been an attempted rebellion. The bill also seeks to probe claims of provocative actions against North Korea aimed at consolidating Yoon’s power. Yoon remains at his fortified official residence, with his lawyers warning that his detention could ignite civil unrest. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, January 9
China, Congo draw up a road map for Xi Jinping’s US$50 billion Africa investment pledge. China and the Republic of Congo have outlined a plan for President Xi Jinping’s US$50 billion commitment to African infrastructure over the next three years. Announced by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his visit to Brazzaville, the initiative includes trade, diplomatic ties, and major infrastructure projects under the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation. Congo, a key Chinese ally, will co-chair FOCAC and host the 2027 summit. Over 90% of Congo's exports to China are crude petroleum, with Chinese investments focusing on roads, power plants, and railways. Jevans Nyabiage, South China Morning Post, January 9
EC predicts PAO vote turnout of 65%. The Election Commission (EC) anticipates a 65% voter turnout for the February 1 provincial administration organisation (PAO) elections, slightly higher than the 62.86% recorded in 2020. EC chairman Ittiporn Boonpracong highlighted provinces like Phatthalung, Satun, and Chiang Mai, which had high turnouts previously, while Nonthaburi and Buri Ram were lower at about 50%. The EC is launching campaigns, including featuring Moo Deng the baby pygmy hippo as a mascot, to encourage voter turnout. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, January 9
South Korean presidential security chief to appear for questioning by police on Friday. Presidential security chief Park Chong-jun is set to appear for police questioning at 10 a.m. on Friday, according to the Presidential Security Service. The investigation stems from a six-hour standoff last week, during which security staff blocked the arrest of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over insurrection charges. The police are examining the actions of Park and his team during the incident. Hyunjoo Jin, Reuters, January 9
Taliban calls India a significant regional partner after officials meet. Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi described India as a "significant regional and economic partner" following a meeting with Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri in Dubai. The talks focused on trade and cooperation through Iran's Chabahar Port. While India does not officially recognize the Taliban administration, it continues to engage diplomatically and provide humanitarian aid. The meeting reflects broader regional efforts by countries like China and Russia to strengthen ties with Afghanistan. Al Jazeera, January 9
Japan PM travels to Malaysia, Indonesia for summit talks. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba began a four-day trip to Malaysia and Indonesia on Thursday to strengthen economic and security ties. He aims to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific and reinforce ASEAN relations amid China’s growing regional influence. Ishiba will meet Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to discuss security and supply chain stability before heading to Indonesia, where he and President Prabowo Subianto are expected to finalize an agreement on Japan providing high-speed patrol boats. Kyodo News, January 9
Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing. Taiwan showcased its Kuang Hua VI missile boats and Tuo Chiang-class corvettes near Kaohsiung on Thursday as part of its strategy to deter a Chinese invasion. The vessels, equipped with advanced anti-ship missiles, are designed for rapid response and flexibility to intercept enemy forces. Taiwan’s asymmetric defense strategy focuses on countering China’s superior military power, with significant reliance on U.S. technology and support. Taijing Wu, AP News, January 9
Indonesia, Australia seek to step up economic relations. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto and Australian Ambassador to Indonesia Penny Williams met in Jakarta to explore initiatives aimed at enhancing bilateral economic ties. They emphasized the successful implementation of the Partnership Program for the Economy (Prospera) and the Katalis business development program, both designed to complement the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IA-CEPA). ANTARA News, January 9
U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launch, continues to monitor situation: Pentagon. The U.S. condemned North Korea's recent ballistic missile launch, calling it "unlawful" and "destabilizing," Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said Wednesday. The missile, reportedly an intermediate-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic warhead, was launched Monday (Korea time). While the Pentagon does not assess the missile as a threat to U.S. forces, it pledged to continue monitoring the situation and urged Pyongyang to cease further provocations. The launch is North Korea's first this year. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, January 9
'Made in Kyrgyzstan' program aims to boost exports and strengthen global presence. Kyrgyzstan has launched the "Made in Kyrgyzstan" export program for 2025–2028, focusing on textiles, food, jewelry, and halal products. The initiative, led by the Ministry of Economy and Commerce, aims to help local producers access global markets and create a recognizable national brand. It includes participation in trade fairs, export financing, and quality compliance measures to boost high value-added exports and address the trade deficit. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, January 9
Vietnam treasures relations with China: NA Chairman. National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man emphasized that Vietnam values its traditional friendship and comprehensive cooperation with China, considering it a top priority in its foreign policy. During a meeting with Chinese Ambassador to Vietnam He Wei in Hanoi, Man noted the significant progress in bilateral relations following high-level visits by leaders from both nations. He proposed organizing activities to celebrate the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2025 and invited the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China, Zhao Leji, to visit Vietnam. Vietnam News, January 9
China plans to build ‘Three Gorges dam in space’ to harness solar power. China is pursuing an ambitious project to build space-based solar power stations, described as a “Three Gorges Dam above Earth,” to generate continuous, high-density energy unaffected by weather or day-night cycles. Rocket scientist Long Lehao highlighted the need for advanced heavy-lift rockets, such as the Long March-9, to transport materials into orbit. The project envisions a 1km-wide solar array in geostationary orbit, potentially generating energy equal to global oil reserves annually. Zhong Tong, South China Morning Post, January 9
Chinese chopper shadows PCG ship. A People's Liberation Army Navy helicopter hovered over the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel BRP Cabra on Tuesday as it monitored the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel "The Monster" within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The PCG challenged the presence of the CCG-5901, which had been operating unlawfully off Zambales for four days. Amid heightened tensions, the PCG tracked another Chinese vessel, CCG-3103, replacing the departing "Monster" ship. PCG Commandant Adm. Ronnie Gil Gavan urged restraint to avoid escalation while asserting Philippine sovereignty. Franco Jose C. Baroña, Red Mendoza, and Aric John Sy Cua, The Manila Times, January 9
Myanmar junta demands solar panel boost. At the inaugural meeting of the Electricity and Energy Development Commission, Chairman Tin Aung San advocated for mandatory installation of solar panels in new building constructions to alleviate Myanmar's power shortages. He emphasized expanding renewable energy use to reduce reliance on hydropower and liquefied natural gas. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing has directed a rapid increase in solar projects and the construction of low-head dams on the Irrawaddy River. Notably, Aung Pyae Sone, son of the junta chief, has secured licenses to sell solar panels, with the regime granting tax exemptions on solar imports. The Irrawaddy, January 9
Lai says Taiwan to uphold peace through strength. President William Lai emphasized Taiwan's commitment to "peace through strength" in response to authoritarian expansion during a meeting with the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute delegation. He highlighted the importance of safeguarding freedom, democracy, and the international order, referencing former U.S. President Reagan's "six assurances" to Taiwan. Lai outlined his "Four Pillars of Peace" action plan, focusing on strengthening national defense, economic security, and international cooperation to ensure regional stability. Fion Khan, Taipei Times, January 10
The Prospect for US-Korea-Japan Trilateralism in a Second Trump Administration. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol congratulated President-elect Donald Trump after the U.S. presidential election, expressing optimism that trilateral cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan would continue to progress. However, recent political instability in South Korea, including Yoon's impeachment following a controversial martial law declaration, has cast doubt on the future of this trilateral alliance. The potential rise of the opposition Democratic Party, which favors a more conciliatory approach toward North Korea and China, could further complicate relations. In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has expressed concerns over Trump's previous unilateral decisions, such as the rejection of Nippon Steel's bid for U.S. Steel, which may affect future cooperation. Analysts suggest that the second Trump administration's transactional approach to alliances and possible demands for increased defense contributions from South Korea and Japan could strain the trilateral relationship. Additionally, North Korea's recent missile tests and closer military ties with Russia pose significant security challenges that require coordinated responses from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. The sustainability of trilateral cooperation will depend on how these nations navigate internal political changes and external security threats in the coming years. Terrence Matsuo, Korea Economic Institute of America, January 9
COP29 Affirms Cooperation is Key to ASEAN’s Carbon Markets. The November 2024 COP29 conference in Baku advanced global carbon markets under Articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, creating opportunities for ASEAN to attract investment and enhance regional collaboration. ASEAN countries could unlock $65.7 billion in revenue by 2030 and $267 billion by 2050 through carbon markets, with nations like Indonesia and Malaysia supplying nature-based credits and Singapore acting as a key buyer. However, fragmented carbon pricing policies, governance gaps, and disparities in economic readiness hinder progress. Governments must establish clear frameworks, foster public-private partnerships, and adopt robust monitoring systems to ensure carbon credit credibility. A unified regional approach, guided by initiatives like the ASEAN Common Carbon Framework, could improve cooperation while addressing equity concerns. With technical and financial support from advanced economies in the bloc, ASEAN can position itself as a global leader in climate action while supporting sustainable development goals. Renard Siew, East Asia Forum, January 10
Vietnam’s High-Speed Rail Hits the Brakes on Foreign Funding. Vietnam’s $67 billion high-speed rail project, set to link Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City by 2035, marks a shift toward economic independence, with Hanoi opting for state budgets, low-interest loans, and government bonds over foreign funding. This decision reflects Vietnam’s desire to shield itself from foreign influence, particularly China, while avoiding issues seen in donor-backed projects, such as delays, cost overruns, and restrictive conditions. Despite long-standing partnerships with Japan and successes like the Long Thanh Airport, Vietnam aims to rely on domestic resources, with safeguards allowing foreign assistance under strict conditions like technology transfer. Analysts question whether public investment alone can deliver such an ambitious project, given administrative challenges and anti-corruption efforts. However, the project is expected to boost GDP by 0.97% and provide clean, efficient transportation while positioning Vietnam as a model for self-sustainable infrastructure development and strategic autonomy. Nicholas Chapman, East Asia Forum, January 9
Half a Loaf: Third Hwasong-16 Solid IRBM Test Shows Booster is Ready but HGV Payload Needs Work. On January 6, North Korea conducted its third test of the Hwasong-16B (HS-16B) solid-propellant intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) payload. The test suggests the HS-16 booster is nearing operational readiness after three successful flights. However, the effectiveness of the HGV remains unconfirmed, indicating that further testing is necessary before deployment. North Korean reports claim the missile reached a range of 1,500 km with a maximum altitude of approximately 100 km, utilizing new composite carbon fiber materials and updated guidance technology. In contrast, South Korean and Japanese assessments report a range of about 1,100 km and question the North's performance claims. This development shows North Korea's commitment to advancing its missile capabilities, particularly in enhancing systems designed to challenge U.S. missile defenses in the region. Vann H. Van Diepen, 38 North, January 9
A Possible Blueprint for ASEAN’s 2025 Climate Finance Strategy. ASEAN's commitment to climate action faces challenges due to limited financial flows and fiscal constraints. Initiatives like Indonesia and Vietnam's Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) have encountered criticism over conditionality and social impact, with Indonesia facing a 70% financing gap in its Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan. The incoming Trump administration's potential rollback of government-to-government funding and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement could further impede progress. To address these challenges, ASEAN should prioritize blended finance to bridge the gap between clean energy project developers and financial institutions. This involves collaboration among regulators, developers, utilities, and financiers to distribute risks and returns equitably. An example is Singapore's commitment of US$500 million in concessional funding for the Financing Asia’s Transition Partnership (FAST-P) at COP29. Additionally, expanding government-backed regional partnerships can leverage Southeast Asia's unique geography to develop tailored energy infrastructures, improving the region's sustainable development trajectory. Kevin Zongzhe Li, Fulcrum, January 10
The Flawed Approach of Cambodia’s Cryptocurrency Ban. In November 2024, Cambodia's Telecommunications Regulator blocked access to major overseas cryptocurrency exchange websites, including Binance and Coinbase, aiming to strengthen state oversight, promote the local currency, and combat cybercrime. Despite these intentions, the ban's effectiveness is undermined by easily accessible circumvention methods, such as virtual private networks (VPNs), and deeper issues like elite corruption. Additionally, the ban only targets websites, leaving mobile applications functional, which allows determined users to continue accessing overseas exchanges. Critics argue that without addressing systemic issues, such as the integration of cybercriminal operations into the local economy and the government's tolerance of such activities, the ban may have limited impact on curbing illicit activities associated with cryptocurrencies. Brandon Tan Jun Wen, Fulcrum, January 9