Asia Daily: January 8, 2025
Taiwan, China trade barbs over undersea cable damage. Taiwan suspects a Chinese-linked ship damaged an undersea communications cable off its northern coast, raising alarms over potential "grey zone" activities. Taiwan’s coast guard, hindered by bad weather, could not investigate the Cameroon- and Tanzania-registered ship owned by a Hong Kong company. China's Taiwan Affairs Office dismissed the allegations as baseless and typical maritime accidents. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council maintained the case would proceed based on evidence and highlighted previous cable damage incidents involving Chinese ships. Ben Blanchard and Ryan Woo, Reuters, January 8
President Yoon rejects 2nd arrest warrant. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol refused to cooperate with a second arrest warrant issued by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) and police. The Presidential Security Service secured his residence in Hannam-dong, dubbed the “Hannam-dong Bunker,” to obstruct the warrant's execution. Yoon's lawyer demanded formal charges or a pre-arrest warrant, labeling the current approach unlawful. The CIO is discussing strategies, including weekday or nighttime execution, to avoid large protests. Hyung-Jun Hwang, The Dong-A Ilbo, January 9
Nat’l Assembly rejects special probe bills targeting Yoon, first lady in revote. The National Assembly rejected two special counsel bills targeting impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol and first lady Kim Keon Hee in a Wednesday revote. A bill probing Yoon's martial law imposition failed with a 198-101 vote, falling short of the two-thirds majority required to override the president’s veto. Another bill investigating Kim’s alleged stock manipulation and election interference was also defeated in a 196-103 vote. The opposition vowed to reintroduce the bills. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, January 8
Senate to decide on Coast Guard law. The Philippine Senate will tackle Senate Bill 2903, a measure to reform and reorganize the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), when Congress resumes on January 13, 2025. The bill proposes maintaining PCG under the Department of Transportation except during wartime, when it would shift to the Department of National Defense. Authored by multiple senators and sponsored by Senate President Chiz Escudero, the bill addresses maritime challenges in the West Philippine Sea. It outlines a command structure headed by an admiral, with three core functional commands for safety, environmental protection, and security. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, January 8
Bank of Laos warns of counterfeit yuan bills in Luang Prabang. The Bank of Laos has alerted the public to counterfeit CNY 100 banknotes circulating in Luang Prabang, particularly in local markets and tourist areas. Authorities arrested a Chinese national on 24 December for allegedly distributing these fake bills, which closely resemble genuine currency in serial numbers, colors, and patterns. The bank reiterated that using foreign currencies and counterfeit notes is illegal in Laos, urging individuals to exchange foreign money at commercial banks before making purchases. Souliyasone Ngotsyoudom, The Laotian Times, January 8
Deng Li takes reins as China’s ambassador to France, pledging ‘greater progress’ in ties. Deng Li, a seasoned diplomat with expertise in North African and European affairs, has been appointed China’s ambassador to France and Monaco, succeeding Lu Shaye. His appointment coincides with heightened China-Europe tensions over trade and geopolitical issues, including tariffs on Chinese EVs and duties on French cognac. Deng's extensive diplomatic career includes roles in Turkey, Algeria, and Belgium, and as vice-foreign minister since 2021. Leopold Chen, South China Morning Post, January 9
Kazakhstan revises 2025 oil production target amid OPEC+ commitments. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy has reduced its 2025 oil production target by one million tons, setting the new goal at 96.2 million tons, to comply with OPEC+ agreements. In 2024, the country had already cut production by 2.5 million tons from its original plan. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has directed the ministry to enhance measures to boost natural gas and oil output to meet planned levels. Factors influencing the revised forecast include extended maintenance at major oilfields and compliance with OPEC+ production cuts. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, January 8
Debate on charter drafting proposals shelved for now. Thailand’s Parliament has postponed debates on constitutional amendment proposals aimed at creating a charter drafting assembly (CDA) until February 14, when voting will also take place. The delay follows an agreement between government, opposition, and Senate whips to allow more time for review. Despite the postponement, the overall timeline for constitutional changes remains on track, with lawmakers observing a mandatory 180-day cooling-off period after failing to agree on referendum rules. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, January 8
Indian and Afghan officials meet again despite lack of formal diplomatic ties. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in the UAE on Wednesday to discuss business, humanitarian aid, and security concerns. India reiterated its readiness to address Afghanistan’s urgent humanitarian and development needs and explored the use of Iran’s Chabahar port for Afghan trade with India. Despite no formal recognition of the Taliban government, India continues humanitarian programs, including health sector support. Ashok Sharma, AP News, January 9
Russia completes delivery of warplanes to embattled Myanmar junta. The Myanmar military regime has received all six Su-30 fighter jets ordered from Russia under a 2018 contract worth $400 million, financed by a Russian loan. The final two aircraft were commissioned at Meiktila Air Base during the Air Force's 77th anniversary on December 15, led by junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. These Su-30SME multirole fighters are intended to enhance the regime's air superiority. Since the 2021 coup, the junta has intensified airstrikes against resistance forces and ethnic armed organizations, targeting residential areas and resulting in significant civilian casualties. The Irrawaddy, January 8
Opposition preps to grill coalition. Thailand’s opposition plans to file a motion for a censure debate against the coalition government by February, with the debate expected between late February and early March. Key issues include alleged administrative failures, corruption, favoritism toward certain conglomerates, and manipulation of the judicial system for individual benefit. The opposition is verifying information to ensure accuracy, aiming to present new issues that could sway some coalition parties to vote against implicated cabinet ministers. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, January 8
Wife of China’s fallen minister used shadow firms to wash dirty money, big data shows. China’s anti-corruption authorities uncovered 34 companies controlled by Xuan Minjie, wife of disgraced former justice minister Tang Yijun, used to launder bribes. The investigation, aided by big data tools, revealed Xuan and Tang employed proxies to hide financial transactions and disguised bribes as inflated business deals. Tang was expelled from the Communist Party in October 2024 and awaits trial for corruption. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, January 9
Cambodia, Indonesia laud growth of bilateral trade cooperation. Cambodian and Indonesian officials have celebrated the growth of bilateral trade, which surpassed $1 billion in 2023. During a meeting, Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn and Indonesian Ambassador Santo Darmosumarto emphasized expanding trade opportunities, including rice exports and halal food production. The two nations also aim to strengthen ties in education, tourism, and direct flights. Trade between January and Nov. 2024 reached $1.002 billion, with Cambodia exporting $86.86 million in goods and importing $915.3 million. Hin Pisei, The Phnom Penh Post, January 8
S. Korea, U.S. formally ink MOU on principles concerning nuclear exports, cooperation. South Korea and the United States have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to strengthen collaboration on nuclear exports and peaceful energy use, Seoul's industry ministry announced Thursday. The signing, attended by Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun and U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, followed the initialing of the agreement in November. The MOU emphasizes safety, security, and nonproliferation. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, January 9
Indonesia to tap BRICS for mining export, says ministry. Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Yuliot Tanjung announced that Indonesia will leverage its BRICS membership to expand mining exports, particularly to China and India, citing their large populations and market potential. He noted that the decision to join BRICS was made after comprehensive considerations. Brazil, holding the BRICS presidency, confirmed Indonesia's membership, highlighting shared views on global institutional reform and cooperation among Global South countries. The Indonesian Foreign Affairs Ministry expressed commitment to actively contribute to BRICS's agenda. ANTARA News, January 8
Biden to meet virtually with Japanese and Philippine leaders, White House says. U.S. President Joe Biden will hold a virtual meeting with the leaders of Japan and the Philippines this week while in Rome, the White House announced Wednesday. The meeting follows a December maritime cooperative activity in the South China Sea involving armed forces from the three nations within Manila's exclusive economic zone, according to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Andrea Shalal and Katharine Jackson, Reuters, January 8
210 hacks made on JAXA, other Japan targets by China group since 2019. The Chinese hacker group "MirrorFace" conducted 210 cyberattacks on Japanese organizations from 2019 to 2024, targeting national security and advanced technology sectors, Japan's National Police Agency reported. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, government ministries, think tanks, and private firms were among the targets. Investigations linked the group to China's Ministry of State Security, citing similar methods used by the APT10 Group. Kyodo News, January 8
AIIB commits $500 million to Tajikistan's Rogun hydropower project. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has approved a $500 million multiphase financing program for Tajikistan's Rogun Hydropower Plant, with an initial $270 million allocated for Phase 1. Located on the Vakhsh River, the plant will feature a 335-meter dam and a 3,780 MW capacity, aiming to address Tajikistan's winter power shortages and position the country as a regional energy supplier. The project supports clean, affordable electricity access for 10 million people and potential exports to neighboring countries. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, January 8
The Sovereign AI Debate and Prospects of Korean AI. South Korea is advancing its development of sovereign artificial intelligence (AI) systems, including large language models (LLMs), to better represent its cultural and historical contexts. This effort seeks to address the limitations of foreign-developed LLMs, such as ChatGPT, which often fail to respond effectively to Korean-specific queries. The Korean government has announced a goal of becoming one of the top three AI nations globally by 2027, supported by the establishment of a national AI computing center. Additionally, South Korean companies have pledged investments amounting to $48.9 billion, to accelerate AI innovation and development in the country. Haeyoon Kim, Korea Economic Institute of America, January 8
Sanctions are just one part of the puzzle to stopping Myanmar’s military.
Despite targeted Western sanctions and international condemnation, Myanmar's junta continues its brutal campaign against resistance forces, with military airstrikes killing 540 civilians between January and October 2024. While sanctions have marginally hindered the junta's access to aviation fuel and foreign currency, they have not deterred its atrocities or changed its commitment to remaining in power. Sanctions are more effective when integrated into broader diplomatic efforts, as demonstrated by Singapore's investigation into ties with the junta following a 2023 UN report. Efforts by rights groups to expose the regime’s international business links have influenced some policy shifts, though authoritarian partners like China and Thailand remain challenging. A comprehensive diplomatic strategy involving human rights activists, civil society, and international coalitions is crucial to pressuring the junta into negotiations to end the conflict. Hunter Marston, East Asia Forum, January 9
Indonesia’s economic strategy is at odds with itself. Indonesia's economic strategy faces contradictions between the liberalizing reforms of the Omnibus Law on Job Creation and the protectionist Import Substitution Strategy (ISS). While the Omnibus Law, passed in 2020, aims to simplify regulations, boost investment, and improve productivity, ISS policies restrict imports through tariffs, local content requirements, and other measures, creating tension between trade liberalization and protectionism. This has led to higher costs, eroded competitiveness, and slower economic growth, as seen in the steel sector during President Widodo's infrastructure drive. Projections suggest that effective implementation of the Omnibus Law could raise Indonesia's GDP by 14% in the long run and improve real wages and household consumption. However, ISS policies risk undermining these benefits by restricting foreign supplies and raising domestic prices. The Apple case in late 2024, where iPhone 16 sales were banned due to local content violations, shows the growing inclination towards protectionism. Combined with Constitutional Court challenges to the Omnibus Law’s labor provisions, these factors contribute to Indonesia’s uncertain investment climate. Establishing a National Economic Council to monitor reforms and align policy objectives is essential for fostering coherent economic growth. Krisna Gupta, Arianto A Patunru, and Paul Gretton, East Asia Forum, January 8
Quick Take: Kim’s New Year’s Greetings to Putin. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's New Year's message to Russian President Vladimir Putin is indicative of deepening ties between Pyongyang and Moscow. Kim referred to Putin as his "closest friend and comrade" and extended well-wishes to both the Russian people and military on behalf of North Korea's citizens and armed forces. This marks a notable change, as previous communications did not explicitly link the two nations' militaries. Additionally, Kim described North Korea and Russia as "sworn friends," a term rarely used in modern contexts. In contrast, North Korean media briefly noted receiving New Year's cards from Chinese President Xi Jinping, without elaboration. These developments suggest Pyongyang's intent to maintain a hardline stance toward the United States while strengthening its alliance with Russia. Rachel Minyoung Lee, 38 North, January 8
Not-So-Nearshoring: The Case for a US-Uzbekistan Critical Minerals Partnership. The United States is expanding its critical minerals (CMs) strategy beyond nearshoring by engaging with Uzbekistan, a Central Asian nation rich in CMs and rare earth elements (REEs). In September 2024, U.S. Ambassador to Uzbekistan Jonathan Henick and First Deputy Minister of Geology Omonullo Nasritdinxodjaev signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to diversify global mineral supply chains and advance the clean energy transition, while protecting Central Asia's unique ecosystems. Uzbekistan's Ministry of Mining Industry and Geology hailed the MOU as a significant step in ongoing U.S.-Uzbekistan collaboration on exploration, mining, and value-added product chain development. Wilder Alejandro Sanchez, Geopolitical Monitor, January 8
Japan PM struggles with both U.S. relations and China’s growing threats.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration is facing challenges in managing Japan's relationships with both the United States and China. His leadership has been described as "spineless," partly due to the influence of former Prime Ministers Fumio Kishida and Yoshihide Suga. In the Liberal Democratic Party's leadership election on September 27, 2024, Ishiba secured his position after Kishida and Suga encouraged their supporters to back him in the runoff against Sanae Takaichi, a protégé of former leader Shinzo Abe. Edo Naito, The Japan Times, January 8
Lao PDR’s ASEAN Chairmanship 2024: Advancing Regional Economic Integration, Connectivity and Resilience. In 2024, Lao PDR assumed the ASEAN chairmanship for the third time, focusing on improving connectivity and resilience amid geopolitical tensions and a rapidly evolving global trade landscape. Under its leadership, ASEAN adopted 20 key documents during the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits, including the ASEAN Declaration on Enhancing Supply Chain Connectivity and the Joint Statement on the Substantial Conclusion of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement 3.0 Upgrade Negotiations. These initiatives aimed to strengthen economic integration, promote sustainable agriculture, and address challenges such as crop burning. Lao PDR's efforts focused on maintaining ASEAN's neutrality and centrality, regional stability, and ensuring equitable sharing of economic integration benefits among member states. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy, Fulcrum, January 8