Asia Daily: January 7, 2025
China confirms Xi Jinping and Donald Trump have been in touch since US election. China has confirmed that President Xi Jinping has communicated with U.S. president-elect Donald Trump through representatives ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun emphasized the importance of mutual respect and win-win cooperation in China-U.S. relations. Trump recently stated that he expects to get along with Xi while criticizing China’s trade practices. Meanwhile, outgoing U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng held talks, agreeing on the need to stabilize bilateral economic ties during the transition period. Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, January 7
China called out for 'monster ship' intimidation. The Philippines has condemned the presence of China's Coast Guard vessel 5901, dubbed "The Monster," near Zambales, calling it an act of "intimidation, coercion, and aggression." The ship, spotted 54 nautical miles from Capones Island on January 4, prompted the deployment of Philippine Coast Guard assets, including the BRP Cabra and aerial support, to assert jurisdiction in the country’s exclusive economic zone. National Security Council spokesman Jonathan Malaya emphasized the government’s commitment to safeguarding Filipino fishermen while rejecting China’s jurisdictional claims. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, January 7
U.S.-China dialogue touches on ‘candid’ concerns before Trump takes office. Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed bilateral tensions ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration, focusing on tariffs, industrial policies, and cybersecurity. Yellen reiterated warnings of consequences for supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine, while He criticized recent U.S. restrictions on Chinese firms. Both sides called the talks constructive but noted significant challenges, including Trump’s vow to impose steep tariffs targeting high-tech sectors. Despite trade tensions, bilateral trade grew 2.9% in 2024, though China lost its position as the U.S.’s largest import market to Mexico. Frank Chen, South China Morning Post, January 7
China joins nations snubbing junta on Myanmar independence day. China did not send a congratulatory message for Myanmar’s 77th Independence Day on Jan. 4, continuing a trend since the February 2021 coup. In contrast, Russia, Belarus, and other nations extended messages, with Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirming bilateral ties. Thailand, India, and Laos also refrained from issuing messages. Chinese Ambassador Ma Jia attended the junta’s Independence Day dinner, reflecting China’s cautious engagement. Despite resumed high-level talks in 2024, Beijing has yet to officially recognize the junta as Myanmar’s legitimate government. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, January 7
South Korean anti-corruption agency receives new court warrant to detain impeached President Yoon. South Korea’s anti-corruption agency secured a new warrant on Tuesday to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol after its first attempt was blocked by his presidential security service. The agency is investigating allegations of rebellion tied to Yoon’s December 3 martial law declaration and troop deployment. A standoff at Yoon’s residence on Friday prevented execution of the initial warrant, which expired Monday. Yoon’s lawyers argue the warrants are unenforceable at his residence due to laws protecting military-linked sites. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, January 7
BRICS membership must benefit Indonesians: DPR. Amelia Anggraini, a member of Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR), emphasized that Indonesia's BRICS membership should bring tangible benefits to its citizens. She described the move as strategic, enhancing Indonesia’s role in global governance. Anggraini highlighted national interests such as digital sovereignty, green economy sustainability, and bridging development gaps. She also noted Indonesia’s strategic position as a bridge between BRICS and Southeast Asia, fostering regional diplomacy. ANTARA News, January 7
Vietnam, Laos promote trade, industrial, energy cooperation. On Jan. 3, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam and the Lao Embassy in Vietnam agreed to continue close coordination to enhance economic, trade, industrial, and energy cooperation. Bilateral trade reached an estimated USD 2.2 billion in 2024, marking a nearly 34% increase from 2023. Cooperation in electricity and mining sectors has shown promising results, with Vietnam importing electricity and coal from Laos to meet its socio-economic development needs and support Laos' economic growth. Oulayvanh Sisounonth, The Laotian Times, January 7
Mongolia and India discuss ways to expand business cooperation. President of the Mongolian National Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MNCCI) Tur-Od Lkhagvajav and Indian Ambassador Atul Malhari Gotsurve discussed enhancing economic ties on January 6, 2025. Key areas of focus included high technology, artificial intelligence, education, and English language training. They explored partnerships in infrastructure, finance, and the automotive industry, with interest in collaborating with Indian firms like Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra. Самбууням.М, MONTSAME, January 7
Singapore wants to elevate ties with Vietnam in promising areas: President. Singaporean President Tharman Shanmugaratnam has expressed a desire to enhance cooperation with Vietnam in sectors such as clean energy, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, carbon credits, finance, and education. As both nations prepare to upgrade their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, President Tharman emphasized the pivotal role of newly-appointed Vietnamese Ambassador Tran Phuoc Anh in advancing bilateral ties. Ambassador Anh committed to strengthening the partnership across various fields, including politics, national defense, economy, culture, and people-to-people exchanges. Vietnam News, January 8
China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway officially launched, but sidetracked at least until summer. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project was ceremonially launched on December 27 near Jalal-Abad, Kyrgyzstan, but construction is delayed until at least July 2025. The 300-mile route will link Kashgar in China to Andijan in Uzbekistan through Kyrgyzstan, aiming to reduce transit times for westbound freight. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov hailed the project as key to regional growth, but financing details remain unclear, raising doubts about its feasibility. Completion is projected to take six years. Eurasianet, January 7
Indonesia and Japan agree to resume stalled talks on transfer of defense equipment. Indonesia and Japan have agreed to restart negotiations on the joint development of naval vessels and defense equipment, which had stalled under Indonesia’s previous administration. Japanese Defense Minister Gen. Nakatani and his Indonesian counterpart, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, discussed deepening defense cooperation, including technology transfer and joint development of Monogami class frigates. Japan’s Defense Ministry emphasized the strategic importance of maritime security in Southeast Asia. Ninek Karmini and Edna Tarigan, AP News, January 9
Military launches three days of drills. Taiwan’s military commenced three days of exercises to showcase readiness amid rising concerns over potential defense budget cuts. Initial drills in Hsinchu County involved tank maneuvers with outdated CM-11 tanks, set to be replaced by M1A2T Abrams from the US. Today, the Patriot III anti-missile system will be demonstrated, while anti-submarine exercises are planned off Kaohsiung tomorrow. The drills aim to reassure citizens and deter Chinese aggression. Taiwan faces pressure as new legislation could reduce defense funding, potentially affecting international support. Wu Taijing, Taipei Times, January 8
Singapore, Malaysia committed to find ‘durable, win-win’ outcomes on outstanding bilateral issues, say PMs Wong and Anwar. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim affirmed their commitment to resolving complex bilateral issues involving airspace, maritime boundaries, and water rights. Speaking at the 11th Leaders’ Retreat, they emphasized achieving mutually beneficial solutions while maintaining progress on projects like the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone and the Rapid Transit System Link. Both leaders highlighted strong bilateral ties and expressed openness to reviving the High-Speed Rail project with private sector financing. Amir Yusof, Channel News Asia, January 7
Demonstrators block a key Pakistan-China trade route over power outages. Protesters in Pakistan's Gilgit Baltistan region have blocked the Karakoram Highway, disrupting trade with China and stranding 700 trucks at a dry port. The protest, sparked by power outages lasting up to 20 hours in harsh winter conditions, began over the weekend and escalated on Monday. Authorities are negotiating with the protesters to end the blockade. The disruption comes as Pakistan seeks increased Chinese investment through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a key component of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Author, AP News, January 7
Japan to tap veteran diplomat Okano as new national security adviser. Japan plans to appoint Vice Foreign Minister Masataka Okano as national security adviser, replacing Takeo Akiba, ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Okano will oversee Japan’s diplomatic and security policies, including strengthening ties with the U.S. and improving relations with China. He will also lead efforts to implement "active cyber defense" measures. Okano, 60, has held prominent roles in the Foreign Ministry, including assistant chief Cabinet secretary and chief of the Foreign Policy Bureau. Kyodo News, January 9
Jail only option for Yingluck. Former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is ineligible for Thailand's new alternative detention program due to her five-year prison sentence for negligence in her government’s rice-pledging scheme. Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong confirmed the program only applies to sentences of four years or less. Yingluck, who fled Thailand in 2017, continues to live abroad. The program, aimed at addressing overcrowded prisons, aligns with international standards and focuses on reducing recidivism through nontraditional detention for eligible inmates. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, January 8
Acting president receives credentials of 9 new ambassadors to S. Korea. Acting President Choi Sang-mok received credentials from nine new ambassadors on Tuesday, including representatives from China, Cuba, and Nepal, according to the foreign ministry. The ambassadors presented their credentials in a ceremony attended by Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul. Among the new diplomats are Dai Bing of China, Claudio Monzon Baeza of Cuba, and Shiva Maya Tumbahangphe of Nepal. This formal process enables the ambassadors to officially assume their roles and responsibilities in South Korea. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, January 7
South Korean transport minister plans to resign over country's worst air crash. Transport Minister Park Sang-woo announced his intention to resign after the deadly December 29 crash of Jeju Air Flight 7C2216, which belly-landed at Muan Airport, overshot the runway, and exploded, killing 179 people. Park expressed responsibility and pledged to address safety concerns before stepping down. Investigations revealed the embankment supporting the airport's landing system contributed to the crash. Bird strikes on an engine were confirmed, but experts question the landing gear's malfunction. Hyunjoo Jin, Reuters, January 7
Vietnam Struggles to Avoid the Trump Administration’s Glare. Vietnam is striving to maintain favorable relations with the United States amid the Trump administration's focus on trade imbalances and currency issues. Despite a growing trade surplus with the U.S., Vietnamese officials are implementing measures to avoid being labeled a currency manipulator or facing punitive tariffs. These measures include allowing the Vietnamese dong to appreciate against the dollar and increasing imports from the U.S. Additionally, Vietnam is enhancing its defense cooperation with the U.S. to counter China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. However, Hanoi remains cautious, balancing its foreign policy to avoid antagonizing Beijing while seeking to strengthen ties with Washington. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, January 7
Private forces pose public risks for China–Myanmar stability.
China's formation of a joint venture security company in Myanmar underscores its strategy to protect investments amid the nation's civil conflict but raises legal, political, and regional concerns. Established in October 2024, the company is a part of China’s broader efforts to align non-state security actors with its goals while circumventing Myanmar's constitutional prohibition on foreign troops. This approach enables plausible deniability for Beijing while securing key projects like the Myanmar–China oil and gas pipelines, which remain vulnerable to resistance from revolutionary groups. The initiative shows growing tensions, including the risk of Chinese personnel becoming targets, and raises alarm in neighboring nations like India, Bangladesh, and Thailand about increased militarization. As Chinese-backed security forces navigate a volatile situation, the balance between safeguarding economic interests and avoiding deeper entanglement in Myanmar’s conflict remains precarious. Sike Chan, East Asia Forum, January 7
Impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol: Impact on US-Japan-ROK Cooperation. The impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has introduced uncertainties regarding the future of the US-Japan-ROK trilateral security partnership. Yoon's administration had strengthened ties with Japan and the United States to counter regional threats from China, North Korea, and Russia. His potential removal raises concerns about the continuity of these cooperative efforts. The progressive Democratic Party (DPK), led by Lee Jae Myung, holds a majority in the National Assembly and has criticized Yoon's foreign policies, suggesting a possible change in South Korea's diplomatic stance if they assume power. Compounding the situation is the incoming Trump administration in the United States, which may deprioritize alliance commitments, further affecting trilateral cooperation. The convergence of these factors could undermine the progress made in recent years, creating vulnerabilities in addressing regional security challenges. To mitigate potential setbacks, it is imperative for the US, Japan, and South Korea to actively sustain and strengthen their trilateral security cooperation during this period of political transition. Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, 38 North, January 7
Making an Electric Car Battery, Minus China. The global shift toward green technologies has led to a significant increase in lithium demand, essential for lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles (EVs) and store renewable energy. By 2040, lithium demand is projected to be up to 42 times higher than in 2020. Currently, major EV markets like the U.S., Europe, and India heavily depend on China for lithium refining and battery production, raising concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities. To address this, countries are investing in domestic lithium extraction and processing capabilities. For instance, the U.S. has allocated over $3 billion to improve its battery production infrastructure, aiming to reduce reliance on Chinese imports. Similarly, the European Union is implementing policies to develop its own battery supply chains. These efforts are crucial for achieving energy transition goals and ensuring the sustainability of future technologies. Abhimanyu Singh Rana, The Diplomat, January 8
China's EVs may change the world in unimaginable ways. China's rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is reshaping the global automotive industry. The country has become the world's largest EV market, with domestic manufacturers like BYD and NIO leading the charge. This is not only reducing carbon emissions but also positioning China as a dominant player in the future of transportation. The integration of advanced technologies, such as autonomous driving and connected services, into EVs is transforming cars into platforms for a range of services, from entertainment to e-commerce. This evolution challenges traditional automakers to innovate and adapt to a rapidly changing market. As China continues to invest heavily in EV infrastructure and technology, its influence on global automotive trends is expected to grow, potentially redefining mobility and economic dynamics worldwide. Brad Glosserman, The Japan Times, January 7
China takes aim at Philippine democracy. China's influence in the Philippines has extended beyond maritime disputes to internal political dynamics, exemplified by the case of Alice Guo, a former mayor accused of graft, money laundering, and espionage. Such incidents highlight how domestic corruption can render the Philippines susceptible to Chinese infiltration and subterfuge. As President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s administration asserts the country's maritime claims through naval confrontations and new legislation, addressing internal vulnerabilities remains crucial. The Philippines' approach to these challenges will impact its future and the broader stability of Southeast Asia. Adam Nelson, The Japan Times, January 7
Beyond Democracy’s Return: Jakarta’s Gubernatorial Election and the Mutation of Toxic Alliances. The November 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election saw Pramono Anung and Rano Karno, backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), defeat the Ridwan Kamil-Suswono pair endorsed by the ruling coalition, Koalisi Indonesia Maju Plus (KIM Plus). This victory showed the evolution of "toxic alliances" in Indonesian politics, where former rivals unite to exclude genuine alternatives while maintaining a democratic facade. PDI-P's success was facilitated by discreet support from elements within KIM Plus and strategic alliances with previously antagonistic political bases, including supporters of former Jakarta governors Anies Baswedan and Basuki Tjahaja Purnama ("Ahok"). Pramono's inclusive campaign rhetoric and his running mate Rano's resonance with Jakarta's Betawi community further contributed to their appeal. This election shows the intersection of elite negotiations and shifting alliances in Indonesia's politics, with implications for future contests, including the 2029 presidential race. Rendy Pahrun Wadipalapa, Fulcrum, January 8
Preparing the ASEAN Economic Community for a Securitised World. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is adapting to a global landscape where economic and security issues are increasingly intertwined. Geoeconomic tensions have led industrialized nations to pursue supply chain de-risking, benefiting some ASEAN member states (AMS) like Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia through increased exports to the U.S. However, the incoming Trump administration's mercantilist trade policies, including potential tariffs, may subject AMS with significant trade surpluses or dependencies on countries like China to heightened scrutiny. Similarly, the European Union's rise in environmental, social, and cybersecurity-related trade measures could disproportionately impact AMS integrated into China-led supply chains, especially given ASEAN's lack of free trade agreements with the U.S. or EU. To deal with these challenges, the AEC must proactively consider the effects of growing securitization on trade and investment, engage in reforming international economic institutions, and strengthen internal cooperation to mitigate vulnerabilities arising from economic dependencies and geopolitical tensions. Julia Tijaja and Muhammad Habib Abiyan Dzakwan, Fulcrum, January 7