Asia Daily: January 6, 2025
China risks catastrophic errors if anti-corruption crackdown eases, Xi Jinping warns. President Xi Jinping cautioned that any relaxation in China’s anti-corruption campaign could lead to catastrophic consequences, emphasizing the persistent complexity of the fight. Speaking at the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection’s plenary session, Xi called corruption the Communist Party’s greatest threat, urging unwavering commitment to the decade-long crackdown. Recent cases include Admiral Miao Hua and 14 military lawmakers, with corruption investigations extending across sectors like finance and health. Dewey Sim, South China Morning Post, January 6
The Constitutional Court: Excluding insurrection charges is up to us. The Constitutional Court, overseeing President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial, stated it will independently decide on the National Assembly's request to exclude insurrection charges from the impeachment grounds. Court spokesperson Cheon Jae-hyeon noted there is no explicit constitutional provision regulating such exclusions, leaving the judgment to the court. Legal experts anticipate no second National Assembly vote will be required, citing precedent from former President Park Geun-hye's 2016 impeachment trial. The Dong-A Ilbo, January 7
N. Korea confirms launch of new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile. North Korea announced the successful test-firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) equipped with a hypersonic warhead, which it claims can deter threats in the Pacific region. Overseen by Kim Jong-un, the missile flew 1,500 km at 12 times the speed of sound. The South Korean military confirmed detecting the launch, with the missile landing in the East Sea. Kim stated the missile enhances North Korea's nuclear deterrence and can penetrate advanced defenses. The weapon is believed capable of striking U.S. bases in Guam if launched at full range. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, January 7
New Lao-Thai bridge close to completion. Construction of the fifth Lao-Thai Friendship Bridge, connecting Bolikhamxay Province in Laos and Bueng Kan Province in Thailand, is 96.64% complete. The final concrete pour is scheduled for March, with an official opening planned for May 2025, coinciding with the 75th anniversary of Lao-Thai diplomatic relations. The bridge aims to enhance regional connectivity within the Greater Mekong Subregion, providing a more direct route along the East-West Economic Corridor, thereby reducing travel time and logistics costs for businesses operating between these countries. Oulayvanh Sisounonth, The Laotian Times, January 7
Nippon Steel, U.S. Steel file lawsuits after Biden blocks merger. Japan's Nippon Steel Corp. and U.S. Steel Corp. have filed lawsuits challenging U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to block their $14.1 billion merger, calling it politically motivated and harmful to U.S. national security. One lawsuit targets the Biden administration in the U.S. Court of Appeals, alleging the decision favored union supporters, while another accuses Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and its allies of collusion to monopolize the domestic steel market. Japanese officials, including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, have criticized the move, citing potential damage to Japan-U.S. economic relations. Kyodo News, January 6
Myanmar junta boss warns resistance as regime loses ground nationwide. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing declared that his regime "will not yield to demands from the gun" made by groups fighting for democracy or autonomy, urging them to abandon their armed struggle. This statement follows significant territorial losses, including the ceding of three townships and the Western Command headquarters in Rakhine State to the Arakan Army, which now controls 14 of the state's 17 townships. Additionally, the regime has lost almost the entire northern Shan State to ethnic forces. The civilian National Unity Government reports that resistance forces have secured complete or partial control of 144 out of 330 townships nationwide. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, January 6
Blinken says U.S. has 'complete confidence' in acting President Choi's leadership. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed full confidence in South Korea's democracy and the leadership of acting President Choi Sang-mok during his visit to Seoul. Blinken's visit follows the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol and acting President Han Duck-soo, leaving Choi in interim leadership. Highlighting the enduring South Korea-U.S. alliance, Blinken praised trilateral cooperation with Japan and reaffirmed Washington's "ironclad" security commitment. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, January 6
Indonesia is admitted to the BRICS bloc of developing nations. Indonesia has officially joined BRICS as a full member, Brazil announced Monday. Although endorsed by BRICS leaders in August 2023, Indonesia delayed joining until its new government was formed. Brazil welcomed the addition, highlighting Indonesia’s role as Southeast Asia’s largest economy and population, and its shared commitment to global governance reform. BRICS, founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2009, now includes South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE. The bloc accounts for nearly 45% of the global population and 35% of GDP by purchasing power parity. Gabriela Sa Pessoa, AP News, January 6
Philippines deploys maritime and air assets to monitor China's 'monster ship'. The Philippines has mobilized military and coast guard resources to monitor China's largest coast guard vessel, the 165-meter-long "monster ship," spotted 65 to 70 nautical miles off Zambales province. Manila called the ship's presence an act of "intimidation, coercion, and aggression" and warned of appropriate responses to any provocative actions. Relations between the two nations have deteriorated under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as Manila resists Beijing's expansive South China Sea claims, which were invalidated by a 2016 arbitration ruling. Karen Lema, Reuters, January 6
Kazakhstan to build religious memorial on site of Stalin-era executions. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has approved constructing a mosque and an Orthodox chapel at Shymkent's Lisya Balka, a site of mass executions during the 1937–1938 Stalinist repressions. Proposed by Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia, the initiative honors victims from Kazakhstan's major religious communities, Islam and Orthodoxy. Metropolitan Alexander, head of the Orthodox Church of Kazakhstan, confirmed the project's approval, emphasizing its role in preserving the memory of these tragic events and promoting interfaith harmony. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, January 6
U.S. House select committee on China is reauthorised for another 2 years. The U.S. House of Representatives has reauthorised the Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party for two more years, with an expanded scope to address threats to U.S. allies and ideological challenges posed by Beijing. Established in 2023, the bipartisan committee investigates economic, technological, and security risks while advising on policies. Supporters laud its role in countering Beijing, while critics argue it stokes anti-Asian sentiment. Bochen Han, South China Morning Post, January 6
Nusantara's 2024 budget realization hits 97.3% of target. Indonesia's new capital, Nusantara, achieved a budget realization of Rp43.4 trillion in 2024, representing 97.3% of the allocated Rp44.5 trillion. Deputy Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara reported that from 2022 to 2024, a total of Rp75.8 trillion was allocated for the capital's development, with annual realizations of Rp5.5 trillion in 2022, Rp27 trillion in 2023, and Rp43.3 trillion in 2024. The funds were utilized for constructing key infrastructures, including the State Palace, ministerial offices, housing for civil servants and security personnel, roads, bridges, and an airport. Antara News, January 7
Pheu Thai's Chousak says factions near charter deal. Deputy Pheu Thai leader Chousak Sirinil announced that government, opposition, and Senate whips are close to agreeing on establishing a charter drafting assembly (CDA) to create a new constitution. The proposed 200-member CDA would represent diverse groups nationwide, streamlining the amendment process by eliminating the need for parliamentary debate on individual sections. Parliament is scheduled to review multiple charter amendment bills, including a proposal from the People's Party, on January 14–15 to amend Section 256 for the CDA’s creation. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, January 6
PM Wong to visit Putrajaya for Malaysia-Singapore leaders' retreat. Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will travel to Malaysia on January 6-7 for the 11th Malaysia-Singapore Leaders' Retreat, hosted by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim in Putrajaya. The retreat will focus on strengthening economic ties, including trade, investment, and cross-border infrastructure. Both leaders will witness the signing of key agreements and explore collaborations in areas such as digital economy, renewable energy, and connectivity. Channel News Asia, January 6
Ishiba forgoes grand coalition after opposition spurns idea. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba ruled out pursuing a multiparty coalition after opposition leaders rejected his proposal. Speaking at a New Year’s news conference on January 6, Ishiba said a grand coalition is not feasible without a clear purpose. His minority government, formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, lost its Lower House majority in October’s election. Opposition leader Yoshihiko Noda dismissed the idea, aiming instead to oust the LDP. The Asahi Shimbun, January 6
PM to visit Laos, co-chair Vietnam-Laos inter-governmental committee's 47th meeting. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will visit Laos on January 9-10 to co-chair the 47th meeting of the Vietnam-Laos Inter-Governmental Committee alongside Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone. The visit seeks to deepen the comprehensive partnership between the two nations, focusing on enhancing cooperation in trade, investment, and cultural exchanges. The committee's meetings are considered a crucial platform for evaluating bilateral progress and establishing strategies to promote long-term collaboration. Vietnam News, January 6
China’s Growing Influence in Latin America. China has greatly expanded its economic and security presence in Latin America over the past two decades, establishing itself as a major trade partner and investor in the region. This expansion includes substantial investments in infrastructure, energy, and mining projects, as well as increased diplomatic engagement. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been a key driver of this growth, with numerous Latin American countries joining the initiative to enhance economic cooperation. However, this growing influence has raised concerns in Washington and among other international observers about potential geopolitical and security implications. Diana Roy, Council on Foreign Relations, January 6
Local Agency Is Shaping China's Digital Footprint in the Gulf. China's digital presence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is increasingly influenced by local actors who adapt Chinese technology to fit regional needs. This collaboration has led to the integration of Chinese digital infrastructure, such as 5G networks and smart city technologies, tailored to the specific requirements of Gulf states. Local governments and businesses play a crucial role in customizing these technologies, ensuring they align with cultural and regulatory frameworks. This localized approach improves the effectiveness and acceptance of Chinese digital solutions in the region. Tin Hinane El Kadi, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 6
Will China's Policymakers Grasp the Nettle in 2025? China's economy in 2024 grappled with persistent challenges like a prolonged real estate downturn, weak consumer confidence, local government debt, and upstream deflation. While the Third Plenum of the Communist Party emphasized policy continuity, it fell short of delivering transformative reforms to restore strategic confidence. Policymakers face mounting pressure in 2025 to boost domestic consumption, especially by reducing household savings rates, seen as a key opportunity for economic revitalization. The economy is divided into four sectors: a contracting real estate value chain, modestly growing consumer durables, steady non-power infrastructure and high-tech industries, and booming renewable energy sectors like solar and electric vehicles. Despite challenges such as export disruptions and tightening foreign markets, China aims for "around 5 percent" GDP growth in 2025, relying on more effective counter-cyclical measures. Huw McKay, East Asia Forum, January 6
Accelerating Private Sector Engagement for Urban Water Security. Urban water security is increasingly threatened by challenges such as climate change, population growth, and aging infrastructure. Engaging the private sector can enhance investment, innovation, and efficiency in urban water management. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have demonstrated success in improving water services through shared risks and resources. However, concerns about affordability, equity, and governance persist. To address these issues, transparent regulatory frameworks and community engagement are essential. Strategic collaboration between public entities and private investors is crucial to ensure sustainable and resilient urban water systems. Bhawna Prakash, Center for Strategic and International Studies, January 6
Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: Construction Nearing Completion at Radiochemical Laboratory. Recent satellite imagery indicates that roof repairs at the Radiochemical Laboratory's Thermal (Steam) Plant within North Korea's Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center are complete, covering newly installed or refurbished steam boilers. While occasional smoke emissions have been observed, suggesting potential activity, the inconsistent frequency indicates that a full reprocessing campaign is not currently underway. Additionally, excavation of a grid-like series of holes is ongoing at a nearby facility, though their purpose remains unclear. The 5 MWe Reactor has resumed full water discharge after a three-month hiatus, signaling renewed operations, and start-up testing appears to be ongoing at the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). These developments align with directives from Kim Jong Un to expand the nation's nuclear weapons arsenal, setting the stage for increased production of fissile material. Peter Makowsky, Jack Liu, Martyn Williams, and Iliana Ragnone, 38 North, January 6
Vietnam’s Just Energy Transition: Whose Justice? Vietnam's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), a $15.5 billion agreement with international partners, aims to move the country from coal to renewable energy. However, the Vietnamese government's suppression of civil society, including the imprisonment of environmental activists like Hoàng Thị Minh Hồng, raises concerns about the inclusivity and fairness of this transition. Critics argue that without genuine civil society engagement, the JETP may perpetuate human rights abuses and fail to address the needs of those most affected by the energy shift. Hướng Thiện, The Diplomat, January 6
Preparing the ASEAN Economic Community for a Securitised World. The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is facing increasing challenges as economic and security issues become more intertwined globally. Geoeconomic tensions, such as supply chain de-risking by industrialized nations, have led to shifts in trade dynamics, with countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia increasing exports to the U.S. However, the anticipated mercantilist approach of the incoming Trump administration may subject ASEAN Member States (AMS) with large trade surpluses or dependencies on nations like China to greater scrutiny. Additionally, the European Union's rise in environmental, social, and cybersecurity-related trade measures could disproportionately impact resource-rich AMS linked to China-led supply chains. To navigate these, the AEC must integrate economic and security agendas, strengthen internal cooperation, and engage in the reform of international economic institutions to mitigate the spillover effects of geopolitical tensions. Julia Tijaja and Muhammad Habib Abiyan Dzakwan, Fulcrum, January 7
Southeast Asia’s Economic Performance in 2024 and Outlook for 2025: Navigating Rising Risks. Southeast Asia experienced strong economic growth in 2024, driven by robust domestic consumption, a recovery in merchandise exports, and a tourism resurgence, with nations like the Philippines and Vietnam leading the way. The Asian Development Bank projects growth of 4.7% in 2025. However, the region faces rising risks, including geopolitical tensions from U.S.-China conflicts, potential U.S. tariff hikes under the Trump administration, and climate change-related disruptions. Rising household debt in countries like Malaysia and Thailand adds further strain, requiring strategic policies and enhanced regional cooperation to sustain growth. Jayant Menon, Fulcrum, January 6