Asia Daily: January 29, 2025
Myanmar junta registering women ahead of possible conscription. Myanmar’s military regime has begun registering women for potential conscription, focusing on Yangon townships with large female workforces. Under the junta’s revived Conscription Law, single women aged 18-27 and men aged 18-35 must serve at least two years in the military. Recent amendments require families to provide substitutes if a draftee is absent. The move follows reports of forced recruitment and abductions as the military struggles with troop shortages. The Irrawaddy, January 29
N. Korea's Kim openly reprimands officials accused of irregularities in effort to tighten discipline. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un denounced party officials for misconduct, including being treated to drinks and abusing authority, calling such actions a "mega crime." Speaking at a party meeting, Kim ordered the dissolution of local party committees in Onchon and Usi counties over violations of discipline. The move is part of his broader push for internal control and economic progress amid his "Regional Development 20x10 Policy." Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, January 29
PLA extends power supply to border outposts near disputed China-India frontier. The People’s Liberation Army has expanded electricity access to border outposts in Xinjiang and Tibet, including strategic areas near the disputed China-India border. The upgrades, part of a broader military-civilian fusion strategy, aim to improve living conditions and operational readiness for high-altitude troops. The initiative follows past efforts to modernize logistics and infrastructure, including enhancements to oxygen supplies. Fan Chen, South China Morning Post, January 29
Kazakhstan bans export of gasoline and diesel fuel. Kazakhstan has enacted a ban on exporting gasoline and diesel fuel by road and rail, effective January 29, to prevent domestic fuel shortages. The measure includes restrictions on exports to Eurasian Economic Union member states but allows exceptions for lubricating oils, aviation fuel for research, and humanitarian aid. The move aligns with government discussions on phasing out state-regulated fuel prices to curb illegal exports and reduce price disparities with neighboring countries. Vagit Ismailov, The Times of Central Asia, January 29
China enhances position as Central Asia’s economic overlord. China strengthened its dominance in Central Asia’s economy, with trade turnover reaching $94.8 billion in 2024, a nearly 5% increase from the previous year. Kazakhstan remains China’s top regional partner with $43.8 billion in trade, while Kyrgyzstan saw a 3,270% surge in exports. Turkmenistan is the only country in the region maintaining a trade surplus with China. The shift has sidelined Russia’s economic role, reinforcing Beijing’s influence in the region. Eurasianet, January 29
Myanmar refugees face sudden discharge from Thai hospitals shuttered by U.S. aid freeze. Thai hospitals serving tens of thousands of Myanmar refugees are shutting down after U.S. President Donald Trump froze most foreign aid. The International Rescue Committee, which funds the clinics, has halted operations, affecting critical services such as water distribution and waste disposal. Thai authorities are transferring severely ill patients to state hospitals, while aid groups warn of worsening conditions in the camps. Panu Wongcha-Um, Shoon Naing, and Poppy McPherson, Reuters, January 29
MNDAA leader vows to uphold China’s ‘peace’ policy on Myanmar. Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) commander Peng Daxun pledged to follow China’s policy of promoting peace and dialogue in Myanmar after Beijing brokered a ceasefire between the MNDAA and the military junta. The MNDAA, part of the anti-regime Brotherhood Alliance, previously recaptured the Kokang region but faced Chinese pressure after seizing Lashio. Peng also committed to fighting cyber fraud and drug trafficking while leveraging China’s Belt and Road Initiative for economic development. The Irrawaddy, January 29
Cabinet likely to be convened Friday to discuss bill on special probe against Yoon: official. The South Korean Cabinet is expected to hold an extraordinary session to review an opposition-backed bill calling for a special counsel probe into impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed martial law attempt. The Democratic Party, which controls parliament, passed the bill despite ruling party opposition. Acting President Choi Sang-mok is likely to veto the measure, as he did with a previous version. The deadline for a decision is Sunday. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, January 30
2 anti-VP Duterte rallies set for same day, but difference arises. Two rallies demanding the impeachment of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte are scheduled for January 31 in Metro Manila. Former Senator Antonio Trillanes leads the morning protest, while the afternoon event, organized by the Clergy and Citizens for Good Governance, also targets government corruption. Trillanes claimed the second rally includes pro-Duterte figures, a claim denied by organizers. The groups share common goals but differ in their stance on President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Gillian Villanueva, Philippine Daily Inquirer, January 29
Japan, U.S. finance chiefs agree to closely consult on forex. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have agreed to maintain close consultations on foreign exchange movements amid concerns over potential U.S. tariff hikes and inflation. The discussions come as investors watch for policies that may impact currency markets, particularly the yen's depreciation against the dollar. Kato also stated that both nations would collaborate on economic and financial challenges but declined to disclose specific details of the talks. Kyodo News, January 29
Cambodia, Laos outline strategies to boost bilateral trade. Cambodia and Laos have agreed on four key strategies to enhance trade and tourism cooperation following the second Cambodia-Laos Joint Trade Committee Meeting in Vientiane. The plans include reviewing trade expansion opportunities, improving infrastructure, holding annual provincial meetings, and organizing investment and tourism exhibitions. Despite strong diplomatic ties, trade remains limited due to similar industrial bases. Hin Pisei, The Phnom Penh Post, January 29
Taiwan considers support for semiconductor industry after Trump’s tariff threat. Taiwan is evaluating measures to assist its semiconductor industry following U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal to impose tariffs on imported chips. Premier Cho Jung-tai stated that emergency discussions are underway to determine potential cooperation plans. Taiwan’s economy ministry emphasized the mutual benefits of U.S.-Taiwan chip production partnerships. Taiwan remains a key player in the global semiconductor supply chain, with exports to the U.S. reaching $106.2 billion in 2024. Fan Chen, South China Morning Post, January 29
Provincial Administrative Organisation polls 'not a threat to the coalition govt'. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra dismissed concerns that competition between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and Bhumjaithai in the February 1 Provincial Administrative Organisation elections would weaken the coalition government. She compared the race to a sports contest, saying rivalries would not impact unity. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is expected to campaign in northeastern provinces where Pheu Thai has struggled against Bhumjaithai. Bangkok Post, January 29
North Korean leader Kim inspects nuclear facility as Pyongyang pressures Trump administration. Kim Jong Un visited a nuclear material production site and called for increasing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, state media reported. The visit signals continued expansion of the country’s arsenal as Pyongyang seeks leverage over the U.S. following Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. North Korea has conducted recent weapons tests and criticized U.S.-South Korean military drills. Hyung-jin Kim and Foster Klug, AP News, January 29
Japan to take steps to protest U.N. call over imperial succession law. Japan will impose countermeasures against a U.N. committee that urged a review of the country’s male-only imperial succession law. The government announced it will prevent its voluntary contributions to the U.N. human rights office from funding the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women and suspend a program inviting committee members to Japan. Kyodo News, January 29
Party chief inspects combat readiness at public security, military units. Communist Party of Vietnam General Secretary To Lam visited the National Cyber Security Centre and the Air Defense - Air Force Command Centre on Lunar New Year’s Eve to assess combat readiness. He commended cybersecurity officials for cracking down on high-tech crimes and urged heightened vigilance against cyber threats and emphasized the Air Defense Unit’s role in safeguarding national sovereignty, calling for mastering of modern technologies. Vietnam News, January 29
DeepSeek and Other Chinese Firms Converge with Western Companies on AI Promises. DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, recently released a leading open-source generative AI model. Last month, DeepSeek and sixteen other Chinese companies signed the Artificial Intelligence Safety Commitments, which closely resemble the Seoul Commitments established at the previous year's AI Summit. Both sets of commitments focus on conducting red-teaming exercises, ensuring transparency in model capabilities, and establishing organizational structures for system security. This alignment may pave the way for global industry consensus on AI best practices at the upcoming Paris AI Action Summit in mid-February. The rapid development of frontier AI models in both the United States and China has raised concerns about potential global risks, showing the need for international cooperation in AI governance. Scott Singer, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 28.
Bangladesh Could Turn to China as Trump Pulls Aid From the Country. The Trump administration's decision to freeze foreign aid to Bangladesh could undermine U.S. strategic interests by pushing Bangladesh closer to China. The freeze, exempting aid to displaced Rohingya, is set for ninety days but may be extended. Bangladesh's caretaker leader, Muhammad Yunus, is dedicated to reforming the country, which was named The Economist's country of the year for 2024. Cutting aid now could prompt Bangladesh to seek increased support from China, which has already backed several Belt and Road projects in the country. This could strengthen Beijing's influence in the region, countering U.S. strategic interests. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, January 29
Democracy and Debt Shape the Solomon Islands’ Future. The Solomon Islands entered 2025 facing political uncertainty and economic strain, with debt and governance challenges dominating the national agenda. Despite an anticipated change in leadership following the April 2024 election, continuity prevailed as Jeremiah Manele formed a coalition government after Manasseh Sogavare stepped aside. While relations with China remained largely unchanged, Manele signaled a warming approach toward Australia, securing a major security assistance package. Domestically, financial instability loomed, exacerbated by mismanagement of COVID-19 aid and rising debt, which has nearly tripled since 2019. Austerity measures in the latest budget sparked opposition, with former Prime Minister Gordon Darcy Lilo attempting—but ultimately withdrawing—a no-confidence motion. With a rapidly growing youth population and a struggling economy, pressure on the government is set to intensify in 2025. Richard Herr, East Asia Forum, January 30
Malaysia Cautiously Treads the Path to Fiscal Recovery. Facing fiscal constraints, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim implemented subsidy rationalization and economic reforms in 2024 to expand Malaysia’s fiscal space. While rejecting the reintroduction of the goods and services tax (GST), his administration removed diesel subsidies, saving RM8 billion (US$1.8 billion), and delayed petrol subsidy cuts to mid-2025. Inflationary pressures persisted, compounded by a weak ringgit, rising wages, and mandatory foreign worker contributions to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF). Meanwhile, Anwar sought investment abroad, strengthening ties with key partners, including China and Russia. The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with Malaysia navigating global trade tensions, U.S. tariff threats, and sluggish Chinese economic performance while aiming for GDP growth between 4.5–5.5 percent. Shankaran Nambiar, East Asia Forum, January 29
Political Turbulence Clouds South Korea's Economic Outlook. South Korea is grappling with political upheaval following President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief declaration of martial law on December 3, 2024, and his subsequent impeachment on December 14. This crisis, the most severe in nearly four decades, has exacerbated existing economic challenges. Prior to these events, the nation experienced a decline in industrial production for three consecutive months, culminating in November 2024. The political instability has further dampened consumer and business confidence, leading to a downward revision of the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.1%, aligning with the country's potential growth rate. Despite these challenges, the OECD anticipates that investment and private consumption will drive growth, supported by expected interest rate cuts from the Bank of Korea and real income gains enhancing purchasing power. The employment rate reached a historic high of 62.7% in October 2024, with the unemployment rate projected to remain low at 2.7%, despite ongoing labor shortages in sectors like shipbuilding and healthcare. However, the political turmoil poses risks to these economic projections, as prolonged instability could further erode confidence and hinder economic performance. Randall S. Jones, Korea Economic Institute of America, January 29
Does China's DeepSeek Mean U.S. AI Is Sunk? DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, has developed a model that rivals OpenAI's ChatGPT in performance while utilizing significantly fewer resources. This achievement has led to a substantial decline in U.S. tech stocks, with Nvidia experiencing a $593 billion loss in market value—the largest in U.S. stock market history. DeepSeek's efficient approach challenges the prevailing belief that massive investments are necessary for AI development, potentially democratizing the field and reducing energy consumption. However, concerns have been raised about the implications of Chinese control over advanced AI technologies. This development has prompted discussions about the effectiveness of U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chips to China, as DeepSeek's success suggests that such measures may have limited impact. The situation underscores the need for the U.S. to reassess its AI strategy to maintain competitiveness in the global AI landscape. Jack Corrigan and Sam Bresnick, Newsweek, January 29
Japan's Start-ups Play Catch-up in the Defense Sector. In December 2024, Kyoto-based Mitsufuji Corporation, originally a traditional textiles manufacturer, showcased prototype items at the Vietnam Defense Expo, including a scale model of a hangar tent with electromagnetic shielding and wearable technology. This aligns with Japan's Defense Buildup Program (DBP), initiated by the Ministry of Defense in December 2022, aiming to promote the growth of a domestic defense industry as a strategic tool in Japanese defense and foreign policy. Unlike countries such as the United States or the United Kingdom, which have companies like Lockheed Martin or BAE Systems that primarily rely on military contracts, Japanese firms like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries derive less than a fifth of their revenue from defense-related sales. To address this disparity, the Japanese government is actively engaging with small and medium-sized enterprises to explore dual-use technologies that can bolster military capabilities. In 2023, the government held meetings with various companies to explore potential defense applications of their technologies, leading to the procurement of innovative products like muscle suits and wind-measuring instruments. Mark Soo, Geopolitical Monitor, January 29