China
China probes senior military officials Zhang Youxia, Liu Zhenli for suspected serious discipline, law violations. China’s defence ministry said senior generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for suspected serious violations of discipline and law. Zhang, a Politburo member and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, is one of President Xi Jinping’s closest military allies, while Liu serves as CMC chief of staff. The probe marks one of the highest-level military investigations in years and comes amid a sweeping anti-corruption campaign in the armed forces. Global Times, January 25
China to offer LNG futures as soon as next month, sources say. China plans to launch yuan-denominated liquefied natural gas futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as early as next month, sources said. The contracts aim to reduce reliance on Western pricing benchmarks and strengthen China’s influence in global LNG markets. Analysts said the move could enhance energy security and reshape price discovery as imports rebound. Reuters, January 23
Japan
Japan ruling LDP most popular among voters in Feb. general election: poll. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party leads voter support ahead of the Feb. 8 general election, a Kyodo News poll showed. The survey found declining approval for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi even as the LDP outpaced a newly formed centrist opposition alliance. Many respondents said inflation relief is their top election concern. Kyodo News, January 25
South Korea
Pentagon officially announces Colby’s trip to S. Korea, Japan following NDS release. The Pentagon said Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby will visit South Korea and Japan following release of a new National Defense Strategy that emphasizes allied burden sharing and a possible shift in U.S. force posture. Colby is expected to brief officials on the strategy and discuss deterrence, defense spending and regional security priorities. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, January 24
Ex-PM Lee Hae-chan dies during Vietnam trip. Former South Korean prime minister Lee Hae-chan died in Vietnam after suffering cardiac arrest while on a business trip, officials said. Lee, a seven-term lawmaker and key progressive power broker, served as prime minister from 2004 to 2006 and later advised successive liberal presidents. Tributes poured in across party lines praising his role in advancing democracy. Kim Boram, Yonhap News Agency, January 25
South Korea withdraws budget minister nominee after range of allegations. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung withdrew the nomination of Lee Hye-hoon as budget minister following allegations of unlawful real estate investments and mistreatment of staff. The appointment had been framed as a unity gesture toward conservatives, but critics said the claims undermined public trust. An acting vice minister will lead the new budget ministry while a replacement is sought. Cynthia Kim, Reuters, January 25
North Korea
Pentagon foresees more limited role in deterring North Korea. The Pentagon said it plans to shift primary responsibility for deterring North Korea to South Korea while the United States adopts a more limited supporting role. A new defense strategy document said the change could lead to adjustments in U.S. troop levels, currently about 28,500, as Washington prioritizes homeland defense and flexibility elsewhere. South Korea said U.S. forces remain central to the alliance even as Seoul expands its own capabilities. Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali, Reuters, January 24
N. Korea yet to announce schedule for first party congress in five years. North Korea has not revealed when it will hold its next ruling party congress, despite expectations in Seoul that the rare event could take place as early as February. The congress is expected to set long-term policy directions for the economy, foreign affairs and governance. Analysts said recent party meetings and leadership reshuffles suggest preparations are underway, even as state media remain silent. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, January 23
Vietnam
To Lam pledges more reforms as he wins new term as Vietnam’s leader. Vietnam’s Communist Party unanimously reappointed To Lam as general secretary for another five-year term, signaling continuity and political stability. Lam pledged deeper reforms to drive annual growth above 10%, streamline bureaucracy and strengthen governance in the export-dependent economy. He is also seeking to become state president, a move that could further consolidate power at the top. Phuong Nguyen, Khanh Vu and Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, January 23
Thailand
Bhumjaithai builds momentum. Thailand’s Bhumjaithai Party has reached its strongest position since its founding, buoyed by favorable timing, disciplined strategy and the leadership of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. Analysts said the party capitalised on nationalist sentiment following the Thailand-Cambodia border clash, reinforced by technocratic appointments and a pivot toward economic policy to broaden appeal. Apinya Wipatayotin, Bangkok Post, January 25
Vote People’s Party to part with old politics, Natthaphong says. People’s Party leader and prime ministerial candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut urged voters to see the election as a choice between what he called old politics and a future-focused alternative. Speaking ahead of campaign events in Bangkok, he called for strategic voting to secure a strong mandate to form a government. He said the party aims to lead by a wide margin to prevent rival coalition deals after the poll. The Nation, January 25
Myanmar
Myanmar’s junta leader dismisses critics as military allies head for landslide election win. Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing rejected foreign criticism of the country’s general election as the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party moved toward a decisive victory. The party secured overwhelming majorities in earlier voting rounds despite turnout falling well below past elections. Min Aung Hlaing said only the people’s vote matters, as ASEAN reiterated it would not endorse the poll. Reuters, January 25
Final round of Myanmar vote set to seal junta ally’s victory. Myanmar opened the last phase of its month-long election with the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party poised for a landslide win. Voting is taking place in selected constituencies while large areas remain excluded due to conflict, low turnout and security fears. Critics said the process is tightly controlled and designed to entrench military rule after the 2021 coup. The Irrawaddy, January 25
Cambodia
As warship docks, Cambodia-US ties ride new wave. A U.S. Navy warship docked at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base for the first time since its upgrade, marking a milestone in bilateral naval cooperation. Cambodian and U.S. officials said the USS Cincinnati visit reflects renewed trust, transparency and expanding maritime engagement after years of strained ties. Phnom Penh reiterated the base is open to all friendly nations and denied granting exclusive access to any foreign military. Ben Sokhean, Khmer Times, January 25
Philippines
House won’t block impeach cases against President, other officials, says Marcos’ son. House Majority Leader Ferdinand Alexander “Sandro” Marcos said the House of Representatives will act on any impeachment complaint against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. or other impeachable officials in accordance with the Constitution. He said complaints must be referred to the justice committee once properly filed and read in plenary, even if they involve his father. Two impeachment complaints were submitted last week but await formal processing. Red Mendoza, The Manila Times, January 24
House to fast-track 36 priority bills for health, education, food security. The House of Representatives said it will speed up passage of 36 remaining Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council priority bills when sessions resume. Majority Leader Ferdinand Alexander Marcos said measures covering food security, education, health care and social welfare will be prioritised, including amendments to the rice tariffication law and universal health care. He said swift passage is needed so the public can feel tangible benefits. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, January 26
Marcos administration seen missing GDP growth target again. The Philippine economy likely missed its growth target for a third straight year in 2025, with economists estimating average growth of about 4.8%, below the government’s 5.5%–6.5% goal. Analysts cited the impact of a sweeping anticorruption crackdown, delayed public spending and global trade tensions. A modest fourth-quarter rebound was not enough to offset weak domestic demand and confidence. Ian Nicolas P. Cigaral, Philippine Daily Inquirer, January 26
Malaysia
King departs for special visit to Russia at President Putin’s invitation. Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim departed for Saint Petersburg for a special visit until Jan. 27 at the invitation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The palace said the trip aims to strengthen bilateral relations and follows official exchanges between the two countries. The monarch left aboard a special aircraft from Senai International Airport, accompanied by royal send-offs. Malay Mail, January 25
Singapore
Singapore expected to keep monetary policy unchanged as growth outperforms. Singapore is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged at its upcoming review as economic growth outpaces earlier forecasts and inflation remains contained. Analysts cited strong semiconductor exports and resilient electronics demand as key drivers. Some economists said tightening could come later in the year if inflation pressures re-emerge. Jun Yong, Reuters, January 25
Taiwan
Taiwan looks forward to more chip investment in Arizona, president says. President Lai Ching-te said Taiwan expects further semiconductor investment in Arizona to deepen ties with the United States. He cited TSMC’s $165 billion project in Phoenix as a cornerstone of bilateral industrial cooperation amid U.S. pressure to localize advanced chip production. Lai said expanded manufacturing and research facilities would strengthen economic and strategic relations. Ben Blanchard and Yi-Chin Lee, Reuters, January 23
Kazakhstan
U.S., Kazakhstan energy ministries discuss cooperation. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said it held talks with the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. embassy on cooperation in oil and gas development. Discussions focused on implementing Kazakhstan’s strategic priorities as production faces disruptions from field outages and tanker attacks affecting exports. U.S. firms including Chevron and Exxon Mobil have major stakes in Kazakhstan’s energy sector. Felix Light, Reuters, January 23
East Asia
What Xi Jinping’s purge of China’s most senior general reveals. China’s defence ministry placed vice-chairman Zhang Youxia and CMC member Liu Zhenli under investigation for suspected discipline and law violations, a move that leaves the Central Military Commission with Xi Jinping and disciplinary chief Zhang Shengmin as the only active members. The fall of a long-trusted veteran with Vietnam war experience extends purges that began in 2023 in the Rocket Force and spread to equipment, procurement, and political departments. Possible drivers include frustration with reform results ahead of Xi’s 2027 Taiwan readiness goal, revived graft allegations from Zhang’s 2012–17 weapons portfolio, and faction rivalry that made Zhang a threat. The upheaval complicates succession, taints remaining generals, and risks operational disruption. The Pentagon cited uncertainty, procurement corruption, and observed shortfalls such as faulty missile silo lids. The Economist, January 24
Young Chinese Are Choosing to Skip the Rat Race. Complaints from students and tech workers about impossible workloads have grown into a belief that effort fails to yield reward in China. A 2023 survey by Scott Rozelle and Martin K. Whyte found that respondents, for the first time since 2004, ranked connections and wealthy parents above personal skill as the route to wealth. Meritocracy served as a civic creed during the reform era and was reinforced through parental instruction and patriotic fable, so few people questioned it. As conditions changed, the term youji zhuyi began to circulate as people tried to name the loss of that shared expectation. Helen Gao, Foreign Policy, January 23
Can Beijing Succeed in Its Re-engagement Bid with U.S. Partners? China’s agreement with the EU to replace proposed electric vehicle tariffs with a price floor signals a shift toward easing trade frictions and curbing price war pressure tied to an “anti-involution” drive. Beijing pairs this with outreach to U.S. partners, highlighted by senior visits from Spain, France, and Canada amid doubts about U.S. leadership under Donald Trump. The approach rests on a wager that allies seek stable economic ties and market access when ideology divides. Two obstacles shape outcomes: large trade deficits with China that fuel fears of dependence and domestic backlash, and geopolitical anxiety tied to the Taiwan Strait. Beijing faces calls for clearer empathy, more imports, and stronger communication that preserves deterrence without conflict. Brian Wong, CHINA US Focus, January 23
The last pandas in Japan cannot ease geopolitical tensions. Tokyo’s Ueno Zoo will farewell giant panda twins Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei on Jan. 25, leaving Japan without pandas for the first time since the 1972 normalization with China. Beijing plans their return one month before the loan term ends, drawing attention to panda diplomacy as emotional statecraft aimed at public sentiment. The move fits Chinese pressure on Japan that includes tourism discouragement, flight cuts, seafood ban delays, dual-use export controls, and state media criticism tied to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks. Japan’s coverage stresses sadness, yet public views of China remain low. A 2025 Pew survey put favorable views at 13 percent, which limits policy impact and risks resentment. Nancy Snow, Nikkei Asia, January 24
Southeast Asia
ASEAN needs Indonesia but Indonesia needs ASEAN more. ASEAN confronts tariff wars, industrial policy, and major power rivalry that reward cohesive regional blocs and punish fragmented markets. Two risks stand out: member states chase competing bilateral gains, and the Secretariat gains influence as political ownership weakens, which can leave ASEAN integrated on paper yet sidelined in production networks. Indonesia’s scale and record of agenda setting position it to restore strategic direction, from supply chain coordination to digital transformation. ASEAN can extend Indonesia’s market, attract investment, and link talent to regional value chains in data, AI, and advanced manufacturing. Priorities include leader-level engagement, coordinated industrial roadmaps with investment screening, and a Secretariat role focused on implementing member state decisions. Iman Pambagyo, East Asia Forum, January 25
ASEAN exits 2025 bruised but not broken. ASEAN faced tariff shocks, trade unilateralism, internal conflict, and supply chain strain in 2025, yet the bloc ended the year intact. Trump reciprocal tariffs hit poorer members, since the United States is ASEAN’s top export market for labour-intensive goods. Malaysia’s chair year delivered the ASEAN 2045 vision, Timor-Leste’s admission as the 11th member, and summits with leader attendance, including an ASEAN, Gulf Cooperation Council, and China meeting. Growth forecasts moved to 4.5 percent on strong output in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam, with export frontloading before tariff rises. Work advanced on upgraded ASEAN trade accords and a fifth RCEP leaders’ summit, while institutional strains raised doubts about ASEAN nonalignment. The Philippines chair year in 2026 must press South China Sea code talks and a cross-pillar economic security agenda. Julia Tijaja, East Asia Forum, January 24
Stalled ambitions in Indonesia’s energy transition. President Prabowo Subianto announced a 15-year phaseout of fossil fuel power at the 2024 G20, yet the government rejected a full coal plant phaseout and moved the 23 percent renewable share target from 2025 to 2030. The 2025 to 2034 power plan adds 16.6 GW of new non-renewable capacity and 42.6 GW of renewables, with independent power producers central. Coal remains the prime option because the Domestic Price Obligation caps coal prices for plants and shifts costs to producers. A single buyer model with PLN and low tariff procurement weakens project returns. EU battery and carbon border rules threaten exports, pushing reforms that end coal price controls, price carbon, and back clean technology research. Fitri Ika Pradyasti, East Asia Forum, January 24
Vietnam’s Post-War Generation Takes the Helm. Vietnam’s senior leaders carry Vietnam War credentials, but a new cohort rising to the Politburo lacks combat experience and came of age during hyperinflation, food shortages, and the doi moi reforms. Le Minh Hung, Tran Sy Thanh, and Nguyen Thanh Nghi rose through finance, auditing, city administration, and overseas study, with appointments that shape personnel, discipline, and policy. Their ascent fits General Secretary To Lam’s growth agenda built on streamlining and discipline. Party legitimacy goes from liberation history to economic results. The 14th Congress may place security and military institutions in near half of Politburo seats, creating a hard test for coordination between economic managers and coercive agencies. Nguyen Khac Giang, FULCRUM, January 23
South Asia
Pakistan must broaden its full-throttle export drive beyond fighter jets. Pakistan is marketing JF-17 fighter jets, developed with China, after May 2025 air combat in which Pakistan says it hit India’s Rafales. A $4 billion deal with Azerbaijan for at least 40 aircraft plus spares and training anchors the sales push, with outreach to buyers from Libya and Saudi Arabia to Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Nigeria. The export drive draws on memories of 1990 U.S. sanctions that blocked paid-for F-16 deliveries and constrained fleet use. Fighter sales cannot resolve Pakistan’s economic strain. The trade deficit exceeded $26 billion in the year ending June 2025, growth has lagged under IMF cuts, and political conflict has weakened investor confidence. Defense exports need parallel growth in industrial and farm exports. Farhan Bokhari, Nikkei Asia, January 25
Oceania
Constitutional amendments take centre stage in Fiji. Supreme Court advisory opinion in 2025 confirmed the 2013 Constitution as lawful despite a democratic deficit and lowered the supermajority hurdle for amendment. Amendments need a two-thirds vote in the 55-seat parliament and a national referendum with a simple majority. The National Referendum Bill 2025, introduced in December, sets Fiji’s first referendum framework and sits with a parliamentary justice committee for a 2026 report. Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka seeks electoral reform before the next poll, amid anger at open list proportional representation and vote concentration on star candidates. The Elections Office set an earliest date of 7 August 2026 and a latest date of 6 February 2027. FICAC disputes and a prosecution decision that found insufficient evidence in complaints linked to an inquiry report add pressure. William Waqavakatoga, East Asia Forum, January 23