Asia Daily: January 24, 2024
News
China assures Pakistan of closer economic ties, support on efforts to defend 'territorial integrity'. China has reaffirmed its commitment to stronger economic ties with Pakistan and support for its efforts to defend territorial integrity. Chinese Foreign Vice-Minister Sun Weidong, during a visit to Pakistan, pledged cooperation following recent border tensions with Iran. Sun's discussions with Pakistani leaders and military chiefs focused on reinforcing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and addressing regional security concerns. Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, January 23
S. Korea urges China to protect N.K. defectors' human rights at U.N. review. South Korea has made an unprecedented move by urging China to protect the human rights of North Korean defectors at a United Nations review session. South Korea called on Beijing to provide necessary protections and humanitarian support to defectors, and not to forcibly repatriate them. This plea comes amid reports of China repatriating North Korean defectors, who may face severe repercussions upon return. North Korea, however, praised China's political system and human rights record at the same review. Choi Kyong-ae, Yonhap News Agency, January 23
Maldives says Chinese vessel will not conduct research in its waters. The Maldivian foreign ministry announced that the Chinese research vessel Xiang Yang Hong 03, en route to the Maldives, will not conduct research in the archipelago's waters. The vessel's presence in Maldivian waters will be limited to a port call for personnel rotation and replenishment. While these vessels are not officially military, their presence has raised concerns in India about potential military use. The Maldives' decision to allow the ship's docking, amidst President Mohamed Muizzu's 'India Out' campaign and pivot towards China, could strain relations with traditional ally New Delhi. Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters, January 23
Japan PM Kishida vows to reshape LDP by moving away from faction system. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan has committed to transforming the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by reducing its reliance on internal factions, amidst a political funds scandal. This announcement follows a meeting of the party's reform panel, which released an interim report suggesting changes but stopped short of proposing the complete disbandment of factions. The scandal has significantly impacted the LDP's approval ratings and has led to indictments of accountants and lawmakers within the party. Kyodo News, January 23
Marcos: PH 'will not lift finger' to help ICC. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has stated that the Philippines will not cooperate with any International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation. This declaration reaffirms the country's stance following reports of ICC representatives' presence in the Philippines. Marcos' pronouncement underscores the Philippines' continued non-cooperation with the ICC since its withdrawal from the court. The statement reflects the government's position on not engaging in ICC activities, aligning with its previous international legal decisions. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, January 23
‘China strikes hard at terrorism’: Beijing’s new white paper praises its tough measures in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. China has released a white paper titled "China’s Legal Framework and Measures for Counterterrorism," which lauds its anti-terrorism efforts, particularly in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. The State Council, China’s cabinet, emphasized the necessity of the Hong Kong national security law and deradicalization regulations in Xinjiang to combat terrorism. Beijing's approach includes revising laws, enacting specialized anti-terrorism legislation, and defining and penalizing terrorist activities. The white paper also addresses international criticism of China's methods, asserting that its measures have guaranteed human rights while effectively curbing terrorism. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, January 23
Laos-China Railway Boosts Daily Trips in Preparation of Tourism Surge. The Laos-China Railway Company has increased its daily passenger train trips to 12, up from 10, starting January 22, in anticipation of a surge in tourists. The Laos-China Railway, integral to Laos' transition from a land-locked to a "land-linked" nation, has seen significant growth, carrying over 3.1 million passengers since its inauguration in late 2021. Additionally, the railway has boosted fruit exports from Thailand to China and facilitated new routes connecting Vientiane to major Chinese cities. The Lao government aims to attract over 2.7 million international tourists in 2024, targeting revenue of USD 401 million. Jonathan Meadley, The Laotian Times, January 23
Uganda asks China to go further in opening up its market for African products. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has urged China to expand its market access for African goods, emphasizing mutual economic benefits. During a meeting on the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Kampala, Museveni highlighted the importance of trading finished products, not just raw materials, for Africa's prosperity. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu Guozhong responded positively, noting that 98% of taxable items from East African countries already enjoy zero tariffs in China. This dialogue reflects ongoing efforts to balance trade relations and address the trade imbalance between Africa and China. Jevans Nyabiage, South China Morning Post, January 23
Taiwan seeks to bolster economic, security cooperation with US. Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen has reaffirmed the country's commitment to enhancing economic and security cooperation with the United States. This commitment was expressed during a meeting with the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council delegation in Taipei. President Tsai emphasized Taiwan's readiness to join the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and highlighted ongoing efforts to address double taxation between Taiwan and the U.S. The visit of Keith Krach, chairman of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy, and the USTBC delegation, signifies the deepening relationship between Taiwan and the U.S., particularly in trade and technology partnerships. Kelvin Chen, Taiwan News, January 23
Prime Minister wraps up tour of Europe. Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính concluded a significant European tour, encompassing visits to Hungary, Romania, and the 54th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos. During this trip, Chính engaged in over 30 activities, including policy speeches, meetings with state leaders, and discussions on economic and scientific cooperation. The tour strengthened Vietnam's comprehensive partnership with Hungary and its traditional, friendly partnership with Romania. It also involved the signing of multiple cooperation documents, particularly in education and training. Vietnam News, January 23
Long Form
The Foreign Policy Angle in India’s Upcoming National Elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India has effectively utilized its foreign policy achievements to enhance its domestic popularity, a strategy that emphasizes style over substance. The BJP's 2019 election victory was significantly influenced by its national security stance, especially following the Pulwama attack and subsequent air strikes against Pakistan. This approach reinforced the perception of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a decisive leader, contributing to the party's substantial electoral win. The BJP's narrative of India as a "Vishwaguru" (world teacher) and its portrayal of the country's G-20 presidency as a symbol of India's emergence as a global power are likely to be central themes in the upcoming 2024 elections. These strategies underscore the increasing importance of foreign policy in Indian electoral politics, beyond traditional economic and identity concerns. Arvind Mohan, The Diplomat, January 24
Situating the Battle of the Paracel Islands in Modern Vietnam-China Relations. The 50th anniversary of the Battle of the Paracel Islands, a significant 20th-century naval conflict between China and Vietnam, raises questions about how the current Vietnamese government addresses its historical and territorial claims. The battle, which involved the former Republic of Vietnam (South Vietnam) that controlled the Paracel Islands before 1974, is a pivotal event in the South China Sea dispute. The Vietnamese government's claims over the Paracel Islands are based on its status as the successor to the pre-1975 Republic of Vietnam's sovereignty. However, Hanoi's subdued commemoration of the anniversary and its control over unofficial civil society commemorations are seen by some as indicative of its reluctance to confront the legacy of the former South Vietnamese government and its cautious approach to China. This reflects a broader trend of downplaying past conflicts to maintain good relations with China, impacting Vietnam's stance on national sovereignty issues. Khang Vu, The Diplomat, January 24
Asia Inc. Heads to Washington as Focus Turns to Trade, Tariffs, and Trump. Asian companies are increasingly establishing offices in Washington, D.C., driven by the need to navigate the complexities of U.S. trade policies, especially amid the tech war with China and the ongoing presidential election campaign. The victory of former President Donald Trump in the Iowa Republican caucuses has significant implications for these companies. A potential Trump win in the upcoming presidential election could decisively impact the U.S. economy and international relations, affecting markets crucial to Asian businesses, such as India, the world's largest whisky consumer. This trend underscores the rising concern among Asian corporations about geopolitical risks and the necessity to stay closely informed and engaged with developments in U.S. politics and trade policies. Ken Moriyasu, Nikkei Asia, January 24
Political Compromise Key for Lai to Build Taiwan's Resilience. Lai Ching-te, set to become Taiwan's next president, faces the challenge of governing from a weaker position than his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. With the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) losing control of the legislature and winning fewer seats than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), Lai's administration will need to navigate a politically fragmented landscape. The lack of a majority party raises concerns about potential legislative deadlock. The new government must address key issues affecting young voters, such as homeownership and wage stagnation, while also dealing with broader challenges like renewable energy, an aging population, and economic diversification beyond the semiconductor industry. Amidst U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan's future hinges on maintaining its autonomy and delivering tangible benefits to its citizens. Lai's commitment to trade and exchanges with the U.S. and the West, and the need for political compromise in the legislature, are crucial for building Taiwan's resilience in a fracturing world. Caroline Fried, Nikkei Asia, January 24
China’s Political Shakeup in 2023. China's 2023 was marked by significant political and geopolitical developments. The year saw the end of COVID-19 restrictions, but the country grappled with long-term economic challenges, including a high youth unemployment rate and a troubled housing market. Politically, the year was notable for the National People's Congress in March, which brought Li Qiang, a close associate of President Xi Jinping, to power as premier. However, the sudden death of former Premier Li Keqiang and the disappearances of Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Defence Minister Li Shangfu raised questions about Xi's political instincts. Internationally, China navigated the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions with the United States, and Middle East conflicts, maintaining a delicate balance in its foreign relations. The year ended with uncertainties about Xi's leadership in his third term and China's approach to the 2024 Taiwan and U.S. presidential elections. Kerry Brown, East Asia Forum, January 24
Laos’ Economic Reckoning. Laos faced a critical economic juncture in 2023, grappling with a looming debt crisis and its socio-economic consequences. The nation's total public and publicly guaranteed debt reached approximately US$15.9 billion, equivalent to 125% of its GDP. The debt crisis is rooted in mismatches within the energy and infrastructure sectors, governance challenges, and reliance on large-scale projects. The state-owned electricity sector, particularly Électricité du Laos (EDL), is significantly indebted, contributing to the economic strain. Laos' options include securing more debt repayment extensions from Chinese banks, coordinated debt restructuring with international financial institutions, or privatizing state assets. Each option presents its own challenges and implications for the country's future, particularly in terms of human capital development and integration into the global economy. Laos' leadership in 2024 faces the task of making substantive economic reforms to address these deep-rooted issues. Keith Barney, East Asia Forum, January 24