Asia Daily: January 23, 2026

China

Xi signs order to promulgate regulations on military theory work. President Xi Jinping signed an order issuing new regulations to modernise China’s military theory framework, effective March 1. The rules aim to strengthen top-level design, standardise research management and improve the evaluation and application of theoretical work. Officials said the measures support innovation and long-term planning in military development. Global Times, January 21

Finnish PM to kick off four-day trip. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo will begin a four-day visit to China on Sunday, leading a delegation of executives from more than 20 Finnish companies. He is scheduled to meet President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and top legislator Zhao Leji to discuss bilateral ties and shared concerns. China said it aims to deepen political trust, expand trade cooperation and boost people-to-people exchanges with Finland. Zhou Jin, China Daily, January 23

Beijing and Manila working on ‘road map’ for South China Sea talks, ambassador says. China and the Philippines have reached preliminary consensus on a road map for the next phase of dialogue over their South China Sea dispute, China’s ambassador to Manila said. Talks are expected to intensify as negotiations on a code of conduct resume in the first quarter. Beijing said Manila need not choose sides between China and the United States. Cao Jiaxuan, South China Morning Post, January 22

TikTok confirms deal to create new US venture, averting shutdown by a few hours. TikTok said it has established a new U.S. venture with mostly American investors to transfer parts of its U.S. business and avoid a looming shutdown. The deal gives the new entity control over data security, algorithms and content moderation. Chinese and U.S. officials have not publicly confirmed formal approval. Bochen Han, South China Morning Post, January 23

Japan

Japan’s new centrist party wins largest opposition status ahead of election. Japan’s newly launched Centrist Reform Alliance became the largest opposition force in the Lower House, announcing more than 220 candidates for the Feb. 8 election. The party, formed by lawmakers from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, pledged to scrap the consumption tax on food starting this fall. Leaders said the alliance aims to ease cost-of-living pressures and challenge the ruling coalition. Kyodo News, January 22

LDP endorses scandal-hit candidates, draws criticism. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party endorsed 284 candidates for the Feb. 8 election, including 37 lawmakers linked to a political funding scandal. The decision triggered backlash within the party, with critics warning voters may see it as downplaying money politics. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi defended the move as a return to standard endorsement practices. Kohei Morioka, The Asahi Shimbun, January 22

South Korea

South Korea prosecutor appeals court ruling on ex-President Yoon’s obstruction charges. South Korea’s special prosecution team appealed a court decision sentencing former president Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison for obstructing attempts to arrest him after a failed martial law bid. Prosecutors said the punishment was too light given the seriousness of undermining law enforcement authority. Yoon could face up to 10 years if the appeal succeeds. Heejin Kim, Reuters, January 22

South Korea launches landmark laws to regulate AI, startups warn of compliance burdens. South Korea enacted what it calls the world’s first comprehensive AI regulatory framework, requiring human oversight for high-impact uses and clear labeling of generative AI. Officials said the rules aim to build trust and safety while positioning the country as a global AI leader. Startups warned vague language and compliance costs could slow innovation despite a planned grace period. Kyu-seok Shim and Jihoon Lee, Reuters, January 22

Lee’s approval rating rises to 61 %: poll. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s approval rating climbed to 61%, up three points from the previous week, a Gallup Korea survey showed. Diplomacy drove positive assessments following summits with China and Japan, while concerns over the economy remained the top negative factor. Support for the ruling Democratic Party also rose as backing for the main opposition slipped. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, January 23

DPK proposes merger with Rebuilding Korea Party before June local elections. South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party proposed merging with the minor Rebuilding Korea Party to consolidate the liberal bloc ahead of June local elections. Party leaders argued a unified banner would strengthen governance and electoral prospects, while the smaller party said it would consult members before deciding. The proposal drew mixed reactions within the ruling party over timing and process. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, January 22

Vietnam

Defence chief maps faster military modernisation at Party Congress. Vietnam’s defence minister outlined plans to accelerate military modernisation as global strategic competition intensifies and security threats evolve. He said reforms have streamlined thousands of units, expanded defence diplomacy and strengthened the military’s role in disaster response. The strategy prioritises technological self-reliance, professional training and closer alignment between defence planning and socio-economic development. Vietnam News, January 22

14th National Congress elects 200 members of the new Party Central Committee. Vietnam’s Communist Party congress elected 200 members to the new Central Committee after a full-day vote on personnel matters. The body includes 180 full and 20 alternate members and will convene its first plenum to select the Politburo, general secretary and other top organs. The congress is set to conclude earlier than scheduled, signalling leadership consensus. Vietnam News, January 22

Thailand

EC summons five parties to clarify spending-heavy campaign pledges. Thailand’s Election Commission said 51 of the 60 parties contesting the Feb. 8 election have policies requiring disclosure of public spending and summoned five parties to clarify costly pledges. The review panel sought details on welfare payments, pensions, debt relief and large development programmes to assess fiscal risks for voters. Officials said the process aims to improve transparency ahead of polling day. The Nation, January 22

Philippines

ASEAN chair Philippines hopes to widen talks with anti-junta forces in Myanmar. The Philippines said it aims to expand engagement with Myanmar’s anti-junta groups while remaining open to the outcome of the country’s phased elections without endorsing them. Officials cited a recent stakeholder meeting that included ethnic and political groups as a step toward dialogue. ASEAN has not sent observers to the vote and continues to press for progress on its peace plan. Karen Lema and Shoon Naing, Reuters, January 22

Philippines will insist South China Sea code is based on international law, foreign minister says. The Philippines said a long-delayed South China Sea code of conduct with China must explicitly reference the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Foreign Minister Ma. Theresa Lazaro said ASEAN members broadly support grounding the code in international law and making it legally binding. Manila aims to complete the document this year while chairing ASEAN. Karen Lema, Reuters, January 22

‘Don’t be too excited,’ Marcos tells critics after hospital stay. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his overnight hospital stay for diverticulitis was not life-threatening and urged critics not to overreact. Palace officials said he was admitted for observation after experiencing discomfort and later returned to work. Marcos said doctors advised rest while monitoring his condition. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, January 22

Indonesia

Indonesia and Britain announce strategic partnership during Prabowo visit. Indonesia and the United Kingdom launched a strategic partnership during President Prabowo Subianto’s official visit to London, pledging closer cooperation across trade, education, culture and clean energy. The two sides signed an economic growth partnership to expand bilateral trade and investment in priority sectors. Officials said the framework aims to deepen people-to-people ties and long-term cooperation. Heru Andriyanto, Jakarta Globe, January 21

Indonesia joins Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza. Indonesia agreed to join a US-led Board of Peace proposed by President Donald Trump to oversee a ceasefire and reconstruction in Gaza. Jakarta accepted an invitation alongside several Muslim-majority countries and said the body aims to support lasting peace and Palestinian statehood. Analysts at home urged caution over legitimacy and troop commitments. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, January 22

Taiwan

U.S. envoy pledges support for Taiwan defense industry, cites new ammo test range. U.S. Representative to Taiwan Raymond Greene said Washington is committed to expanding Taiwan’s domestic defense industrial base, highlighting a new medium-caliber ammunition test range installed by Northrop Grumman. He said the facility enables technology transfer, training and global-standard testing to advance indigenous weapons development. Greene also pointed to cooperation on secure drone supply chains to strengthen deterrence and resilience. Wu Shu-wei and Shih Hsiu-chuan, Focus Taiwan, January 22

Ties with Honduras could improve, foreign minister says. Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said relations with Honduras could improve after President-elect Nasry Asfura takes office, citing campaign signals that he may be open to restoring ties with Taiwan. Lin said Asfura has identified Taiwan as a potential partner and maintains close relations with the United States. Taiwan and Honduras cut diplomatic relations in 2023 after more than 80 years. Huang Ching-hsuan and Fion Khan, Taipei Times, January 22

---

---

East Asia

Canada and the European Union: Two New Wins for Chinese Exports in the West. Canada and the European Union moved toward arrangements that expand access for China-made electric vehicles and signal a change from blanket exclusion to managed competition. In the EU, the European Commission issued guidance on voluntary price undertakings for battery EV exports from China as an alternative to 2024 anti-subsidy tariffs, and Volkswagen applied for a CUPRA Tavascan produced in China with support from China’s Ministry of Commerce. A price undertaking would replace duties with minimum export prices that preserve margins while leaving consumers facing similar prices. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Beijing visit yielded a plan to admit 49,000 Chinese EVs at a 6.1 percent tariff tied to Chinese steps on agricultural tariffs and investment. Ilaria Mazzocco, CSIS, January 22

Chinese AI is a risk for Europe. So is shunning it. DeepSeek’s rise signaled Chinese AI models that match top US systems on many tasks at lower cost, pushing Chinese firms to seek profits abroad with Europe as the main market left open. European officials and firms worry about data exposure and reliance on a strategic rival, and some countries sought limits on DeepSeek’s chatbot. Open model releases offer a counterweight to vendor lock-in because firms can fine-tune systems and run them on local servers, which also cuts data leakage risk. Chinese AI also provides insurance if US policy restricts exports or services to Europe. Europe may not lead in model building, but it can lead in deployment, with 37% of EU firms using generative AI. The Economist, January 22

Governance first, technology second, in Japan’s quiet Central Asian AI diplomacy. Japan raised Central Asia cooperation to leaders’ level at the Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue summit in Tokyo on 20 December 2025, adopting the Tokyo Declaration on green resilience, connectivity, and human resource development, and launching a Central Asia–Japan Partnership for AI Cooperation. The framework treats AI as a tool for public administration through training and institutional upgrades supported by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, including predictive risk analysis and automated inspection systems. AI cooperation links to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route through logistics optimisation, customs digitalisation, and port modernization, aiming for faster clearance and lower transaction costs. The model contrasts with China and South Korea’s infrastructure or corporate approaches and can embed external standards in data ecosystems. Central Asian governments seek local analytical capacity, with Kazakhstan proposing a regional AI partnership centre in Astana. Timur Dadabaev, East Asia Forum, January 22

Takaichi's 'Japan First' is a recalibration of Abe's vision of openness. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a Feb. 8 snap election and faces claims that “Japan First” signals a turn from openness toward self-reliance. The agenda instead reflects risk management in a setting marked by power changes, conflict, trade weaponization, and pressure from China. Foreign policy keeps the free and open Indo-Pacific as a core pillar and stresses diplomacy with partners and the Global South. Proposed steps on tourism and foreign residents target misconduct and burden sharing, while plans for a Japan version of CFIUS and tighter screening address investment in critical sectors. Growth policy stresses strategic investment to reduce dependence on key imports and lift energy and food security. Security reforms include intelligence changes and looser arms export rules. Rintaro Nishimura, Nikkei Asia, January 22

The first shot Taiwan hopes never to fire. China’s PLA launched Justice Mission 2025 drills on 29 December 2025, designating five restricted zones that Taiwan assessed covered its 12-nautical-mile territorial waters and airspace, plus live-fire launches that neared the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone. The steady escalation since 2022 has eroded the median line as a restraint and raised the risk of incident in a grey zone between peace and conflict. Taiwan’s response options start with warnings, radio broadcasts, shadowing, and blocking, with warning shots as a step before direct attack, and open fire as a last resort if forces enter the 12-nautical-mile zone and press on. Taiwan seeks legal and communications ground so defensive action is seen as proportionate self-defence, including in Washington. Miao Zong-Han, ThinkChina, January 22

Taiwan's 'China Monitoring Report' warns of social friction as economy sags. Taiwan researchers built a monitoring framework with five dimensions and 50 indicators to track China’s economy, finance, fiscal policy, society, and politics, including protests, elite reshuffles, and pension balances. Private investment fell, overall fixed asset investment recorded its first decline since 1995, consumption growth slowed to 3.7%, and prices sat near zero. Exports carried growth as imports weakened, pushing the trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion, alongside concern about deflation spillovers and a drop in high-tech export share. Slower income gains, unemployment, debt stress, and lower marriage and fertility rates fed protest activity tied to perceived injustice. Anti-corruption campaigns increased, hitting senior PLA figures linked to Xi. Thompson Chau, Nikkei Asia, January 22

Southeast Asia

Cambodia bets big on state-led development. Cambodia’s 2025 development agenda featured Techo International Airport and the Bakong digital payment system, both showing a larger state role in financing and operating infrastructure. Techo International Airport opened in September 2025 as a domestic joint venture, with Overseas Cambodian Investment Corporation holding 90 percent and the State Secretariat of Civil Aviation holding 10 percent, funded through domestic capital that included bond issuance. Bakong, launched in 2020, became a state-built platform linked to regional and global networks, reaching 30 million wallets and processing over US$150 billion in transactions by the end of 2025. These projects align with national strategies and public-private partnership reforms that allow project appraisal, risk allocation, and equity stakes. Key risks include corruption, cybercrime penetration, and border tension with Thailand. Kimhean Hok, East Asia Forum, January 22

---