Asia Daily: January 21, 2025
Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi discuss their close ties in chat after Trump’s inauguration. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed their partnership during a 1.5-hour video call, emphasizing shared interests, strategic cooperation, and a commitment to a multipolar global order. They discussed potential engagements with the Trump administration, with Xi highlighting the resilience of China-Russia relations amid global uncertainties. Putin praised Trump’s openness to dialogue on Ukraine and expressed readiness for talks based on mutual respect. Vladimir Isachenkov, AP News, January 21
Pres. Yoon makes historic Constitutional Court appearance. President Yoon Suk Yeol appeared at South Korea’s Constitutional Court to deny allegations related to his impeachment over a December 3 martial law declaration. Questioned by Acting Chief Justice Moon Hyung-bae, Yoon refuted claims of ordering military commanders to remove lawmakers or issuing an "emergency legislative body" note. He attributed the memo to former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, whom he could not question due to detention. Kim Ja-hyeon and Lee Seung-woo, The Dong-A Ilbo, January 22
China’s vice-premier says chaotic competition on AI could bring ‘grey rhino.’ Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang warned that unregulated competition in artificial intelligence could pose significant risks, likening it to a "grey rhino," or a predictable yet ignored threat. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ding emphasized responsible global AI governance and highlighted China's 5% economic growth in 2024. He reaffirmed China’s commitment to openness, innovation, and international cooperation, rejecting Cold War mentalities and trade protectionism. Victoria Bela and Enoch Wong, South China Morning Post, January 21
Quad foreign ministers meet in Washington in signal of Trump's China focus. The United States, Australia, India, and Japan reaffirmed their commitment to cooperation after a Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in Washington, signaling countering China as a key priority for President Trump’s second term. The nations emphasized a Free and Open Indo-Pacific and opposed any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force. The meeting highlighted cybersecurity and defense projects, including Australia’s AUKUS partnership. David Brunnstrom, Simon Lewis, and Alasdair Pal, Reuters, January 21
"Japan First" mindset key for Ishiba in dealing with Trump: ex-aide. Former Trump adviser Ado Machida emphasized that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba must adopt a “Japan First” approach to build strong ties with President Trump. Machida advised against rushing to arrange a summit, noting Trump’s focus on increased financial contributions from Japan for U.S. troops and addressing trade imbalances. Ishiba’s persistence in politics may intrigue Trump, but a tailored strategy beyond personal rapport is essential. Keita Nakamura, Kyodo News, January 21
South Korea's Yoon defends actions at impeachment hearing over martial law decree. President Yoon Suk Yeol attended a Constitutional Court hearing, denying claims he ordered military action against lawmakers during his brief attempt to impose martial law. Yoon, jailed under a separate probe for insurrection, argued the decree aimed to warn of opposition abuses, not execute martial law. His lawyers challenged testimony suggesting he sought arrests of political rivals. Parliament impeached Yoon on Dec. 14, citing constitutional violations. Joyce Lee, Reuters, January 21
Thaksin, Prawit in new war of words. Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has criticized Palang Pracharath Party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, attributing the current political turmoil to the 2014 coup led by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), in which Gen Prawit was a key figure. Thaksin questioned the necessity of the coup and accused the NCPO of enacting laws to exclude him from politics while consolidating their own power. This response follows Gen Prawit's remarks about the country's regression into self-interested political infighting. Bangkok Post, January 21
Parliamentary committee issues order to bring Yoon as witness for martial law hearing. South Korea's opposition-led parliamentary committee has ordered impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol and six others to appear as witnesses for its investigation into Yoon’s Dec. 3 martial law declaration. Yoon and the other officials, including former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, failed to attend the first hearing despite prior summons. Yoon, charged with insurrection and abuse of power, has been detained at the Seoul Detention Center since Sunday. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, January 21
Indonesia's President Prabowo to spend $3 bln on new capital city through 2029. President Prabowo Subianto plans to allocate 48.8 trillion rupiah ($2.99 billion) to continue developing Nusantara, Indonesia’s new capital on Borneo, aiming to relocate the government there by 2028. Construction began in 2022 under former President Joko Widodo, who spent 75.8 trillion rupiah on the project. The next phase will focus on housing and offices for parliament and the judiciary. Private investments, including a 6.5 trillion rupiah project from Malaysia’s Citadel Group, will also support development. Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters, January 21
MNDAA signs ceasefire with Myanmar junta after Chinese pressure. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has signed a ceasefire agreement with Myanmar's military government, mediated by China. The truce was reached during talks in Kunming, Yunnan Province, and aims to de-escalate tensions in northern Myanmar, promoting stability along the China-Myanmar border. China had previously exerted pressure on the MNDAA to halt its offensive, including closing borders and detaining MNDAA leader Peng Daren. The Irrawaddy, January 21
Chinese premier chairs symposium on draft gov't work report. Premier Li Qiang led a symposium to gather input from non-CPC political parties, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and independent figures on a draft government work report. Attendees highlighted achievements in China's modernization and proposed strengthening macroeconomic regulation, promoting innovation, deepening reforms, and enhancing livelihoods. He urged continued support, research, and collaboration to advance economic and social development. Xinhua, January 21
Trump administration likely to pursue steady U.S. trade course in Central Asia. The Trump administration is expected to maintain the U.S.’s trade policies in Central Asia, including repealing the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which limits trade with certain countries. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called the amendment outdated and supports enhancing ties with the region. The B5+1 initiative, aimed at boosting regional trade, is likely to continue, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan prioritized for normalized trade relations. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, January 21
China’s state media runs blow-by-blow account of Trump’s return, calls for ‘more bridges.’ Chinese state media extensively covered Donald Trump’s inauguration, with People’s Daily highlighting his executive orders and inaugural speech addressing domestic and international crises. Commentaries urged the U.S. to adopt a cooperative approach, “dig fewer pits and build more bridges,” and promote stable bilateral relations. Global Times called for U.S.-China collaboration to stabilize the global economy and supply chains. Fan Chen, South China Morning Post, January 21
In Davos, Malaysia's Khazanah looks to developed market investments, tame Trump risks. Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional plans to increase investments in developed markets, including the U.S., Europe, and Japan, to address potential risks under President Trump’s administration, such as tariffs on Chinese goods and a strong dollar. While managing its China exposure, the fund remains optimistic about India and Malaysia due to high returns and economic growth. Malaysia’s rising FDI and digital investments have boosted its economy and strengthened the ringgit. Divya Chowdhury and Danial Azhar, Reuters, January 21
Trump's reference to N.K. as 'nuclear power' sparks speculation about talks with Pyongyang. President Trump referred to North Korea as a "nuclear power" shortly after his inauguration, sparking speculation about reviving U.S.-North Korea dialogue. Experts suggest Trump’s comments and similar remarks by defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth signal a shift toward arms reduction talks rather than complete denuclearization. Trump’s personal diplomacy with Kim Jong-un is expected to be a key focus. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, January 21
Government will ‘always keep public housing affordable’ for Singaporeans: PM Wong. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong assured that public housing will remain affordable, with new Build-to-Order (BTO) flats priced based on income levels rather than resale market trends. Speaking at a dialogue at the National University of Singapore, Wong noted over 80% of first-time buyers finance flats mainly through CPF without cash. He highlighted rising incomes and increased housing supply, including private housing, to stabilize the property market, though acknowledging it will take time. Tang See Kit, Channel News Asia, January 21
What Trump’s Appointments Tell Us About His Asia Policy. President Donald Trump's recent appointments indicate a focus on security issues in Asia, particularly concerning China. The selection of Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser suggests a more confrontational stance toward Beijing. Both Rubio and Waltz have previously advocated for a robust U.S. presence in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's influence. Additionally, the appointment of Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, known for his support of tariffs, aligns with Trump's emphasis on addressing trade imbalances with Asian nations. These choices reflect an Asia policy that prioritizes security concerns and a tougher approach to China, while also consisting of potential inconsistencies in the administration's strategy toward the region. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, January 21
Is Prabowo’s 100-Minister Cabinet a Step Towards Autocracy? Prabowo Subianto’s expansive ‘Red and White Cabinet,’ comprising over 100 top government officials, is a significant consolidation of power, raising concerns about Indonesia’s democratic trajectory. By leveraging this structure to entrench loyalty, neutralize opposition, and secure control of two-thirds of the House of Representatives, Prabowo risks undermining the checks and balances essential for democracy. Strategic appointments of coalition allies to influential roles, military dominance in security posts, and extensive patronage networks show a centralization of authority reminiscent of autocratic tendencies. While inclusive on the surface, the cabinet prioritizes loyalty over competence, creating a governance culture that may weaken institutional independence and erode democratic foundations. Adi Abidin, East Asia Forum, January 22
Southeast Asian Elites Resist a China-Led Regional Order. A survey of 500 Southeast Asian elites reveals strong resistance to China’s ambitions to establish a Sino-centric regional order, with most respondents favoring ASEAN leadership over either China or the United States. While China’s economic influence in the region is large, it is not seen as legitimate to lead, partly due to its lack of self-restraint, coercive diplomacy, and inability to offer appealing political values. Persistent anti-Chinese sentiments, the South China Sea disputes, and Beijing's interference in domestic affairs have further fueled skepticism among regional elites, who continue to emphasize ASEAN centrality and inclusive engagement with all major powers. Terence Lee and Selina Ho, East Asia Forum, January 21
Should AI Convert to Islam? Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has encouraged IT developers to integrate Islamic values into artificial intelligence (AI) systems, aiming to ensure AI serves humanity ethically and justly. Since taking office in late 2022, Anwar has prioritized AI development within Malaysia's economic agenda. This initiative raises questions about the implications of embedding religious principles into AI, considering the diverse interpretations of Islam and the potential for such integration to influence AI behavior in unpredictable ways. The proposal also shows concerns regarding the imposition of specific belief systems on technology and the broader societal impacts, especially in a multicultural and multi-religious context like Malaysia. Sophie Lemière, The Diplomat, January 21
Mapping India’s Global Interests – and US Significance for New Delhi. Analyzing India's international relations through quantitative data reveals that, from 2006 to 2022, China consistently emerged as India's largest source of imports, accounting for 15-17% in recent years. This economic interdependence presents a paradox, as China is simultaneously India's primary strategic rival. Following China, the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Switzerland have been large import sources. In terms of exports, the United States has been India's top destination, with the United Arab Emirates, China, Hong Kong, and Singapore also featuring prominently. These trade patterns show the interaction between economic interests and geopolitical considerations in India's foreign policy, stressing the United States' critical role as both a major trading partner and a strategic ally in counterbalancing China's influence in the region. Krzysztof Iwanek, The Diplomat, January 22
Will Southeast Asian Countries Pass the US’s Heightened Export Controls. The United States has recently released new export controls, targeting semiconductor-manufacturing equipment and integrated circuits with U.S.-origin components or technologies. This move impacts Southeast Asian nations, notably Singapore and Malaysia, which are major exporters of such equipment to China. In 2023, Singapore exported approximately US$6.4 billion worth of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment to China, while Malaysia's exports amounted to US$23 million. The extraterritorial application of the Foreign-Direct Product Rule means that goods produced outside the U.S. but incorporating U.S. technology may be subject to these controls, potentially disrupting regional supply chains and affecting foreign direct investment flows into Southeast Asia's semiconductor sector. To navigate these challenges, Southeast Asian countries may need to develop short-, medium-, and long-term strategies to comply with the new regulations while sustaining their economic growth and technological advancement. Maria Monica Wihardja and George Tan, Fulcrum, January 22
Expansion of the Indonesian Army: A Creeping Dual Function? The Indonesian Army (TNI-AD) is undergoing expansion, planning to establish 22 new Regional Military Commands (Kodam), increasing from the current 15 to 37, with five expected to be operational by 2025. Additionally, the Army aims to form 100 Territorial Development Battalions by 2025, deploying these units across districts nationwide within five years. While officially justified as improving national defense and territorial management, critics express concerns about a potential resurgence of the "dual function" (dwifungsi) doctrine, which historically positioned the military as a dominant force in both defense and civilian governance. This expansion raises questions about the military's increasing involvement in civilian affairs under President Prabowo Subianto's administration. Made Supriatma, Fulcrum, January 21
Conditional Support for Palestinian ‘Refugees’ in Malaysia. In August 2024, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim welcomed 100 injured Palestinians and their families for medical treatment, reflecting Malaysia's longstanding support for the Palestinian cause. However, incidents at federal holding facilities in October 2024 and January 2025, where some Palestinians protested over delays and conditions, have led to a decline in public support among Malaysians. Many now associate Palestinian refugees with socio-economic challenges previously attributed to other refugee groups, such as the Rohingya. Malaysia's lack of official refugee recognition exacerbates these issues, as refugees are confined without legal status or access to basic services. In response to public sentiment, the government is facilitating the return of some Palestinians upon their request, while officials emphasize gratitude and compliance among those remaining. Benjamin Y.H. Loh and Aslam Abd Jalil, Fulcrum, January 20