China
China’s military ‘monitors’ U.S. vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait. China’s military said it tracked and monitored a U.S. guided-missile destroyer and an oceanographic survey ship as they transited the Taiwan Strait on Jan. 16 and 17. The Eastern Theatre Command said it remains on high alert to defend national sovereignty and security. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Casey Hall, Reuters, January 17
China hits 2025 GDP growth target on export boom, but can’t shake domestic chill. China’s economy grew 5.0% in 2025, meeting the government’s target as exporters offset weak domestic demand by capturing record global market share. Fourth-quarter growth slowed to 4.5%, while analysts warned that export-led momentum is unsustainable. Weak consumption, falling investment and property-sector stress continue to weigh on the outlook. Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, David Kirton, Casey Hall, and Gu Li, Reuters, January 19
Xi receives credentials of new ambassadors to China. President Xi Jinping received credentials from 18 newly appointed ambassadors in Beijing and warned that division, confrontation and zero-sum thinking have no future. He said the world is undergoing profound change and called for solidarity and cooperation to address growing global challenges. Xi urged diplomats to help promote stability and mutual trust. Global Times, January 16
Japan
Japan PM Takaichi to call Feb. 8 snap election on spending, tax cuts and defence. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she will dissolve parliament and call a Feb. 8 election to seek support for higher spending, tax cuts and a faster military build-up. She pledged a temporary halt to the consumption tax on food and expanded defence investment amid regional security concerns. The move aims to capitalise on strong approval ratings but risks market unease over fiscal discipline. Tim Kelly, Satoshi Sugiyama, and John Geddie, Reuters, January 19
Japan PM Takaichi’s first U.S. visit eyed for around March 20. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering her first visit to the United States around March 20 for talks with President Donald Trump, diplomatic sources said. The timing would allow coordination on China policy, critical minerals supply chains and investment while minimising disruption to Diet deliberations. Plans are expected to be finalised after a likely general election next month. Kyodo News, January 18
Survey: 50% of voters against Lower House dissolution. Half of Japanese voters oppose Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decision to dissolve the Lower House and call a snap election, an Asahi Shimbun survey found. Despite this, a majority said they still want the ruling coalition to retain power, and many do not see the new centrist opposition alliance as a serious challenger. Support for dissolution was higher among younger voters. The Asahi Shimbun, January 19
LDP to lift election penalty on members involved in slush fund scandal. Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party plans to allow lawmakers linked to its slush fund scandal to run on proportional representation lists in the next election. The move reverses restrictions imposed after public backlash in 2024 and follows Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push to restore party unity. Opposition leaders criticised the decision as undermining public trust. The Japan Times, January 19
South Korea
Ex-floor leader of ruling party to leave party without seeking redeliberation of his expulsion. Former Democratic Party floor leader Kim Byung-kee said he will leave the party without seeking a review of his expulsion over bribery and misconduct allegations. Kim said he wants to avoid burdening colleagues and will cooperate fully with investigators to prove his innocence. The party must still formally approve the expulsion of the sitting lawmaker. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, January 19
Lee meets with DP leadership to discuss pending issues. President Lee Jae Myung held a dinner meeting with ruling Democratic Party leaders to discuss political priorities and other pending issues, the party said. Participants exchanged views on public sentiment, international developments, and strategies for national unity and economic growth. Party leaders pledged firm support for Lee’s agenda in the new year. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, January 19
Partisan standoff stalls confirmation hearing for budget minister nominee. South Korea’s parliament failed to hold a confirmation hearing for budget minister nominee Lee Hye-hoon amid a standoff between ruling and opposition parties. The opposition People Power Party refused to proceed, citing insufficient document submissions and misconduct allegations. The delay has intensified political tensions and raised uncertainty over the nominee’s confirmation. Lee Hyo-jin, The Korea Times, January 19
North Korea
North Korea prepares shift from free care to mandatory medical insurance system. North Korea is preparing to replace its nominally free healthcare system with mandatory medical insurance that would require workers to pay premiums, likely deducted from wages. Sources said the change aims to stabilise funding for hospitals and pharmacies while formalising cost-sharing for treatment. The system may extend coverage to dependents and retirees through insured family members. Lee Sang-yong, Daily NK, January 20
N. Korea’s Kim sacks vice premier over irresponsibility ahead of key party congress. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un dismissed Vice Premier Yang Sung-ho over failures in modernising a major machinery plant, state media reported. Kim cited economic losses and poor oversight during an inspection at the Ryongsong Machine Complex. The rare public sacking signals tighter discipline among officials ahead of the ruling party’s congress. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, January 20
Vietnam
No phones, pre-set tablets for delegates at Vietnam’s Communist Party congress. Delegates attending Vietnam’s Communist Party congress were barred from using mobile phones and given pre-set tablets without internet access. Authorities also required delegates to stay in designated accommodation as part of strict security measures. The controls reflect the sensitivity of leadership selection and policy decisions at the once-every-five-years gathering. Francesco Guarascio, Reuters, January 19
Vietnam’s Communist Party begins week-long congress to choose leader. Hundreds of delegates gathered in Hanoi under tight security as Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party opened a congress to select its top leader and set economic targets. Party chief To Lam is expected to retain his post and may seek expanded powers, including possibly the presidency. The congress is set to prioritise security, diplomacy, and ambitious growth targets of at least 10% annually. Francesco Guarascio, Khanh Vu, and Phuong Nguyen, Reuters, January 19
Thailand
Pheu Thai-BJT coalition looking likely. Opinion polls show Thailand’s People’s Party still leading but nearing a support ceiling as undecided voters shrink ahead of the Feb. 8 election. The Bhumjaithai Party has gained the fastest, driven by nationalist sentiment and regional momentum, particularly in the Northeast. Analysts say current trends point to a post-election coalition led by Bhumjaithai with Pheu Thai as a key partner. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, January 19
PP pulls ahead on all fronts. The People’s Party emerged as the frontrunner in party preference, policy ratings and prime ministerial choice in surveys by Suan Dusit Poll and Nida Poll. Respondents ranked the party highest on education, anti-corruption, security and agriculture, while Pheu Thai led only on cost-of-living concerns. Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut topped the prime minister preference nationwide. Bangkok Post, January 19
Myanmar
Myanmar junta unleashes reign of terror in recaptured Mandalay towns. Myanmar’s military has arrested dozens of residents, sealed homes and imposed movement restrictions after retaking towns in Mandalay Region, residents said. Families linked to resistance fighters were targeted, with reports of killings, forced recruitment and extortion at checkpoints. The offensive followed counterattacks backed by air strikes after junta forces regrouped. The Irrawaddy, January 16
Propaganda machine lines up behind Min Aung Hlaing presidency. Myanmar’s military and its proxy party have launched a coordinated media push to promote junta chief Min Aung Hlaing as president after the election. State outlets and pro-junta figures portray him as the only viable leader, despite him not contesting a seat. The campaign signals an engineered transition under military control. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, January 16
Laos
Laos exceeds 2025 tax revenue target. Laos collected LAK 22.85 billion in tax revenue in 2025, surpassing its target by more than 23%, the finance ministry said. Officials credited stronger oversight, closer coordination and improved customs administration. Authorities set a higher revenue target for 2026 and plan legal and enforcement reforms. Phoudasack Vongsay, The Laotian Times, January 16
China donates new army camp to Lao forces in Phongsaly. China handed over a newly built battalion camp to the Lao People’s Army in northern Phongsaly province. The facility includes 28 buildings and full infrastructure to support troop operations and living conditions. Lao officials said the project strengthens bilateral military cooperation and defense capacity. Thongsavanh Souvannasane, The Laotian Times, January 19
Philippines
Lawyer files impeachment complaint against Philippine President Marcos. A lawyer filed an impeachment complaint accusing President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of betraying public trust by allowing the arrest and transfer of former president Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague. The filing also alleges constitutional violations, corruption and failure to address graft claims. Marcos’ office said it respects the democratic process and will continue governing while Congress reviews the complaint. Karen Lema, Reuters, January 19
Bong Revilla surrenders amid warrant over flood control mess. Former senator Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. surrendered to authorities after the Sandiganbayan issued an arrest warrant over his alleged role in anomalous flood control projects. Police confirmed he was taken into custody by the Criminal Investigation and Detection Group at Camp Crame on Monday night. The warrant stems from a broader corruption case involving non-existent or irregularly implemented projects. Charie Abarca and Jason Sigales, Philippine Daily Inquirer, January 20
DPWH revalidates reports on 421 ‘ghost’ projects. The Department of Public Works and Highways said it is rechecking 421 flood control projects earlier flagged as nonexistent after claims that incorrect coordinates inflated the tally. Public Works Secretary Vince Dizon ordered the review amid a Senate probe into alleged anomalies. Officials said findings will determine accountability for inaccurate data submitted to the president. William B. Depasupil, The Manila Times, January 19
Philippines makes major natural gas discovery. The Philippines discovered a significant natural gas reservoir at Malampaya East-1, the first major find in more than a decade, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said. Initial estimates put reserves at about 98 billion cubic feet, with strong production potential. Officials said the discovery could boost energy security and reduce reliance on imported fuel. Kristina Maralit, Ed Paolo Salting, and Allen Limos, The Manila Times, January 20
Indonesia
Indonesia’s Prabowo nominates nephew as central bank deputy governor. President Prabowo Subianto nominated his nephew, Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Djiwandono, to join Indonesia’s central bank board amid market concerns about monetary independence. The nomination followed the resignation of a deputy governor as the rupiah slid to a nine-month low. Officials said the central bank would remain independent despite closer fiscal and monetary coordination. Stefanno Sulaiman and Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, January 19
Prabowo, Starmer to launch strategic partnership. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are set to unveil a strategic partnership during talks in London covering defence, trade, climate, and people-to-people ties. Officials said the pact aims to deepen economic cooperation and security links as both countries seek closer engagement. Indonesia-UK trade reached $2.4 billion in 2025. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, January 19
Taiwan
TPP unveils 2026 local election platform; joint KMT agenda pending. Taiwan’s People’s Party released an 80-page policy platform for the Nov. 28, 2026 local elections, outlining goals focused on social stability, family support, public health and industrial strength. Chairman Huang Kuo-chang said a joint agenda with the opposition Kuomintang has been largely drafted and awaits KMT ratification. The platform also highlights housing, transport, education, healthcare and fiscal transparency. Chen Chun-hua and Evelyn Kao, Focus Taiwan, January 18
India
India gets Trump’s invite to join Board of Peace on Gaza, ambassador says. U.S. President Donald Trump has invited India to join his proposed “Board of Peace,” an initiative initially focused on resolving the Gaza conflict, according to Washington’s ambassador to New Delhi. India has not indicated whether it will accept the invitation, and its foreign ministry offered no immediate comment. The outreach comes amid strained U.S.-India trade ties and broader diplomatic recalibration. Shivam Patel, Devika Nair, and Rishabh Jaiswal, Reuters, January 18
Kazakhstan
Kazakh, Uzbek leaders to join Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace,’ spokespeople say. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan said their presidents will join U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace,” aimed initially at addressing the Gaza conflict. Both leaders accepted invitations to become founding members as Washington seeks to deepen ties with Central Asia. Permanent membership in the initiative would require a $1 billion contribution. Tamara Vaal and Felix Light, Reuters, January 19
East Asia
Making America great again? Evaluating Trump’s China strategy at the one-year mark. Trump’s second-term China approach targets reindustrialization, AI leadership, reduced dependence on China, and restored U.S. standing. Investment pledges from firms and foreign governments lack binding terms and face political and cost constraints. Manufacturing metrics show contraction, with job losses, flat factory construction spending, capacity use below expansion thresholds, and output below the 2017 benchmark. The United States leads in frontier compute and chip design, but changing export controls, grid limits, and visa uncertainty weaken AI scale and talent. Alternatives to China for rare earths and other inputs require long build times. Polling shows falling U.S. favorability among allies and rising views of China’s economic influence. Patricia M. Kim and Joyce Yang, Brookings, January 16
A Failed Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Would Be Disastrous for Xi Jinping. Wargames center on early conflict stages, but a failed Chinese blockade or invasion would impose costs on China. A study examines two cases: a blockade that ends after US intervention, and a wider war with strikes on Taiwan and US forces in Japan and Guam that ends with Chinese withdrawal after heavy casualties. Economic damage could reach trillions through market shocks, capital flight, and currency moves. Military losses could strain party army ties and hinder force rebuilding. Social unrest and sanctions could trigger political strain for Xi Jinping, whose legitimacy rests on national rejuvenation. Misjudgment and poor feedback in personalist rule raise the chance of risky choices, so deterrence must show capability and resolve. Bonnie S. Glaser and Zack Cooper, Foreign Policy, January 19
Xi Jinping is carrying Deng Xiaoping’s authoritarian torch. Signs of personal rule fill China, from a record 983,000 punishments by the anti-graft watchdog in 2025 to constitutional status for “Xi Jinping Thought” and loyalty pledges across the party-state. Minxin Pei’s book The Broken China Dream links Xi’s power grab to Deng Xiaoping’s choices that left term limits as weak norms and preserved party control over finance, energy, telecommunications, and transport. Deng used markets to strengthen the party and ordered the 1989 crackdown. Xi uses state command to squeeze property developers and fund semiconductors, reinforcing party primacy over private wealth. Deng faced faction checks that Xi has removed. The Economist, January 19
China hits its GDP target in a weird way. China reported 5% GDP growth in 2025 and met its target, backed by a record trade surplus near $1.2 trillion. Consumption lagged as households saved 32% of income, and fixed-asset investment fell for the first time since 1989 amid a property slump and weak infrastructure and factory spending. Gross capital formation implies modest real investment growth and suggests local data changes. Trading partners respond with new barriers, including Mexico tariffs on more than 1,400 items. Deflation cut China’s real exchange rate by over 18% from 2022 to mid-2025. China reduced export tax breaks, accepted EU price floors for electric vehicles, and let the yuan rise. IMF officials call for fiscal support and a stronger safety net. The Economist, January 19
How America Can Stop Getting Played by China. U.S. efforts to trade economic access for political change failed in the 1990s and helped lock in a long engagement strategy through WTO entry and permanent normal trade relations. China moves between conciliation and threats to make Washington carry the burden of stability while China builds coercive leverage and aims for global primacy. Tariff escalation in 2025 met rare-earth export cuts that forced U.S. tariff reductions and eased chip controls, followed by a Busan summit truce tied to fentanyl and farm purchases. The agenda calls for trade realignment away from China, tighter allied export controls on advanced semiconductors, and a rare-earth supply chain buildout modeled on Operation Warp Speed. Liza Tobin and Addis Goldman, Foreign Affairs, January 19
Will China’s US$1.2 trillion trade surplus overwhelm global trade? China posted a record US$1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025 as exports rose despite tariff war pressure and imports grew by 0.5%. Exports to the United States fell 20%, but shipments to Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, and the European Union rose, with Africa up 25.8%, supported by weak producer prices and a weaker RMB. Domestic demand stayed soft, with retail sales growth at 1.3% year on year in November and fixed-asset investment set for its first decline since records began in 1998. The surplus supports growth and supplies low-cost goods that ease inflation, yet it heightens reliance on exports and invites tariff pushback. Beijing signals import expansion and trims export VAT rebates for solar and batteries while seeking a price-based outcome on EU EV tariffs. Chen Jing, ThinkChina, January 19
Understanding Global South Perspectives on Taiwan. CSIS convened a task force of 20 experts from Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Southeast Asia to map Global South views on Taiwan. Many governments endorse Beijing’s One China Principle as a low-cost gesture to protect ties with China, and expect neutrality if conflict occurs. Cross-strait conflict carries an estimated $10 trillion economic cost that would hit developing economies. Southeast Asia shows Taiwan’s strongest unofficial links through trade, migration, and security exposure. Beijing uses economic leverage to restrict Taiwan offices and international participation. U.S. policy signals shape these stances. Taiwan can gain ground through economic cooperation, high-tech investment beyond semiconductors, and people-to-people programs within limited resources. Henrietta Levin and Hugh Grant-Chapman, CSIS, January 16
Trump can't be trusted to defend Taiwan. Taiwan faces mixed signals under Trump. The United States approved an $11.1 billion arms package, but Trump has avoided clear warnings to Xi Jinping and has treated Chinese encirclement drills as routine. Trump prizes direct ties with Xi and plans a Beijing visit, which raises fears that Taiwan commitments could be traded for economic gains. The 2025 National Security Strategy frames Taiwan’s value in terms of semiconductors, access to the Second Island Chain, and South China Sea shipping lanes. It also elevates spheres of influence and Western Hemisphere priorities, highlighted by covert action in Venezuela. Economic framing and competing crises cast doubt on US willingness to act in a Taiwan contingency. Derek Grossman, Nikkei Asia, January 18
Southeast Asia
Should Southeast Asia Pay Attention to ‘Spheres of Influence’? US seizure of Venezuela’s president signals a readiness to use force under presidential powers, reviving talk of spheres of influence. The 2025 US National Security Strategy pledges to reassert the Monroe Doctrine via a Trump Corollary, treating the Western Hemisphere as a privileged security space. A unilateral US sphere in Asia would face Chinese pushback, and China cannot claim an Asian sphere while US alliances hold. The larger risk is a US-China compact that trades concessions on Taiwan and the South China Sea for economic terms, weakening the security order and reducing patrols and exercises. The strategy also calls for denying aggression in the First Island Chain, which cuts the odds of a G-2 carve-up. William Choong and Joanne Lin, FULCRUM, January 19.
Indonesia’s maritime neutrality under pressure. Great power naval conflict spreads along sea routes and can draw Indonesia into contested passage because its straits link the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Maritime neutrality law rests on Hague Convention XIII and nonbinding guidance, yet belligerents judge neutrality by conduct under wartime pressure. If Indonesia cannot police its waters, belligerents may use self-help and treat neutral zones as areas for action. Indonesia may close passages on equal terms, but UNCLOS keeps archipelagic sea lanes and international straits open and disputes arise over other routes claimed as normal navigation. Using the partial sea lane designation of the late 1990s as a baseline can cut uncertainty and limit competing powers from enforcing assumptions in Indonesian waters. Pornomo Rovan Astri Yoga, East Asia Forum, January 19
Standards and sustainability will make or break Indonesia-EU trade deal. Indonesia and the European Union signed the IEU-CEPA in September 2025, with tariff cuts across 98% of tariff lines and entry into force set for 2027. Export gains hinge on rules of origin, standards, traceability, and due diligence. Palm oil tariffs drop, but exports must meet the EU Deforestation Regulation, which bars forest conversion after December 31, 2020 and keeps Indonesia in a standard-risk category with higher compliance costs. Smallholders manage 38% of palm oil land and dominate cocoa, coffee, and rubber production, creating traceability gaps. Rules of origin can exclude apparel made from imported fabric. Vietnam’s EU deal shows standards can drive reforms and trade growth. Ichfan Ramadhan, East Asia Forum, January 19
South Asia
America Must Salvage Its Relationship With India. After decades of progress, U.S.-Indian ties slid in 2025 when Donald Trump claimed credit for ending an India-Pakistan clash and offered mediation on Kashmir, which New Delhi rejects. Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports, and criticized India’s economy, prompting Narendra Modi to visit China and signal distance from Washington. Cooperation continues through defense deals, energy purchases, and Quad work, but Indian public opinion has turned. Repair requires lower U.S. tariffs, no mediation claims, and a policy that avoids putting India and Pakistan on equal footing. The stakes include India’s role as a swing state that can constrain China, expand maritime cooperation, and deepen technology ties. India must address U.S. concerns over Russian oil imports. Richard Fontaine and Lisa Curtis, Foreign Affairs, January 16