Asia Daily: January 2, 2025

Impeached South Korean president issues defiant message as he faces possible detention. Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed to “fight to the end” against “anti-state forces” as the Corruption Investigation Office seeks to execute a detention warrant over his brief imposition of martial law. Yoon’s legal team warned police against detaining him, citing potential civilian resistance. Thousands of supporters protested outside his residence, urging nullification of the impeachment. The Democratic Party, which led the impeachment, called for immediate action to enforce the warrant. Yoon’s martial law decree has triggered political turmoil, with the Constitutional Court deliberating on his removal. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, January 2

Investigators likely to attempt to execute warrant to detain Yoon on Friday. The Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) has delayed executing a detention warrant for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, with the warrant set to expire Monday. Yoon, charged with insurrection and abuse of power over his martial law declaration, has vowed to "fight to the end." The CIO is considering Friday for the warrant's execution amidst protests by Yoon's supporters. His legal team has filed challenges against the warrant, citing illegality. If detained, Yoon would face questioning at CIO headquarters before potential further detention. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, January 2

Kazakhstan caught in the middle of simmering Azerbaijani-Russian tension over jetliner crash. Kazakhstan is navigating tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia after a Dec. 25 crash of an Azerbaijani jetliner near Aktau killed 38 people. Evidence points to Russian air defenses mistakenly targeting the plane during Ukrainian drone activity. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev criticized Russia for avoiding responsibility, while Kazakhstan, leading the investigation, initially echoed Russian theories but has since adopted a more neutral stance. Preliminary findings are expected by late January. Eurasianet, January 2

Lockheed Martin, Raytheon hit as China slaps dual-use export ban on 28 U.S. defence firms. China has banned exports of dual-use items to 28 U.S. defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, citing national security concerns and violations of the one-China policy. Ten firms, linked to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, were added to China’s unreliable entities list, barring them from trade with or investments in China. Executives from these firms face entry bans. Beijing condemned US weapons sales as threats to its sovereignty and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Holly Chik and Zhao Ziwen, South China Morning Post, January 2

Indonesia court says vote threshold for presidential candidates not legally binding. Indonesia's Constitutional Court ruled that the 20% vote threshold required for political parties to nominate presidential candidates is not legally binding. The decision, prompted by a challenge from university students, could expand candidate options in 2029. Chief Justice Suhartoyo declared the threshold had "no binding legal power," though the court did not specify whether it should be abolished or reduced. Lawmakers may revise the law, potentially limiting the ruling's impact. The court also ruled against excessive use of AI to manipulate election candidate images, citing voter misinformation risks. Stanley Widianto, Reuters, January 2

Grand coalition of ruling and opposition parties likely an option, Ishiba says. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has suggested a grand coalition between ruling and opposition parties could help address his minority government’s challenges. Speaking on a radio program, Ishiba emphasized the need for a clear purpose before forming such a coalition. The LDP-Komeito ruling coalition lost its Lower House majority in the October 2024 election, prompting negotiations with opposition parties like the DPP and Nippon Ishin no Kai. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito highlighted electoral reform as a key obstacle. Jiji, The Japan Times, January 2

Malaysia grants WeChat, TikTok licences to operate under new law. Malaysia's communications regulator has issued operating licenses to Tencent's WeChat and ByteDance's TikTok under a new law requiring social media platforms with over 8 million local users to comply or face legal action. The law, effective Jan. 1, targets rising cybercrime. Telegram is finalizing its license, while Meta (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp) has begun the process. X (formerly Twitter) claims it falls below the user threshold, which the regulator is verifying. YouTube has yet to apply, citing concerns about the law's scope. Violations could lead to investigations and regulatory action. Danial Azhar, Reuters, January 2

Arakan Army says halt to Rakhine fighting depends on Myanmar junta. The Arakan Army (AA) has declared its readiness to resolve internal conflicts through political means, contingent upon the Myanmar military regime's response. This statement followed the AA's complete takeover of Gwa Township, marking control over 14 of Rakhine State's 17 townships since November 2023. The AA now oversees key Chinese investments, including oil and natural gas pipelines, and has pledged to protect these assets. The group reports significant regime casualties in recent clashes, including the death of Colonel Than Soe Win. The Irrawaddy, January 2

Ex-Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade recommended for prosecution. The Ministry of Public Security has recommended prosecuting former Deputy Minister Hoang Quoc Vuong for "abuse of power" linked to preferential pricing policies for the Trung Nam - Thuan Nam solar power plant, causing a loss of VND937 billion (US$39.1 million) to Vietnam Electricity. Phuong Hoang Kim, a former department director, and three Binh Phuoc tax officials are also implicated. Disciplinary actions are proposed for others tied to Decision No. 13/2020/QD-TTg, which promoted solar power development. Vietnam News, January 2

Taiwan reports first Chinese 'combat patrol' of the New Year. Taiwan's defense ministry reported detecting 22 Chinese military aircraft and warships conducting a "joint combat readiness patrol" around the island on Thursday. The patrol, involving J-16 fighter jets, covered airspace to Taiwan's north, west, southwest, and east. This comes after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te reiterated his willingness to engage in dialogue with Beijing, which views him as a separatist. Taiwan criticized the maneuvers as intimidation and part of China's psychological warfare. Beijing has not commented on the patrol, its first reported military activity near Taiwan in 2025. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, January 2

Cambodia-Malaysia trade increases by 34.5% in first 11 months of 2024. Trade between Cambodia and Malaysia reached $776.85 million from January to November 2024, a 34.5% increase compared to the same period in 2023. Malaysian exports to Cambodia were $649.3 million, up 33.6%, while Cambodia's exports to Malaysia totaled $127.55 million, a 39.2% rise. This resulted in a Cambodian trade deficit of $521.74 million, up from $394.41 million in 2023. Malaysia is Cambodia's 12th largest trading partner, with key Cambodian exports including agricultural products like rubber, and imports from Malaysia comprising electronics, machinery and construction materials. Hin Pisei, The Phnom Penh Post, January 2

N. Korea's Kim skips New Year's visit to former leaders' mausoleum for 2nd year in row. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has reportedly skipped his annual New Year's visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where his grandfather Kim Il-sung and father Kim Jong-il are enshrined, for the second consecutive year. State media noted that senior officials visited the mausoleum on Jan. 1 but did not list Kim among them. Analysts suggest Kim is reducing reliance on his predecessors to assert his independent authority after over a decade in power. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, January 2

Taiwan prosecutors widen corruption probe into third party leader Ko Wen-je. Taiwanese prosecutors are investigating Ko Wen-je, former leader of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), over additional corruption allegations linked to unaccounted funds during his tenure as Taipei mayor. Ko, already charged with fraud and misuse of campaign funds, denies the accusations, calling them politically motivated. Last week, he was accused of accepting NT$17 million in bribes and misappropriating NT$42 million in political donations. Ko resigned as TPP leader to avoid hindering the party, which holds a key legislative balance. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, January 2.

PM approves HCM City master plan for 2021–30, targeting GDP per capita of $15,400. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has approved a comprehensive master plan for Ho Chi Minh City aiming for an annual gross regional domestic product (GDRP) growth rate of 8.5–9% and a per GDRP of $14,800–15,400 by 2030. The plan emphasizes digital economy growth to over 40% of GRDP, service sector dominance, and urbanization exceeding 90%. Key projects include transport hubs, green spaces, and technology parks to support sustainable development. The population is projected to reach 11 million, with a vision for the city as a global innovation and trade hub. Vietnam News, January 2

Bangladesh court again rejects bail for Hindu leader who led rallies. A Bangladeshi court has denied bail to Krishna Das Prabhu, a Hindu leader charged with sedition for leading rallies in Chattogram demanding better security for minorities. Prosecutors argued that granting bail could incite unrest, citing past violence linked to Prabhu's supporters. Defense lawyers plan to appeal the decision, alleging intimidation during earlier proceedings. Prabhu’s arrest follows rising tensions over attacks on Hindus since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ousting and desecration incidents involving the Indian flag. Julhas Alam, AP News, January 2

Premier Oyun-Erdene issues directive on projects and measures to be implemented within the first 100 days of 2025. Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai has issued directives aimed at advancing infrastructure development in Ulaanbaatar under the 2025 "Year to Support the Development of Infrastructure of Ulaanbaatar City." Key initiatives include expediting the approval of Ulaanbaatar's Master Plan up to 2040, developing the "Khunnu-Smart" satellite city, and upgrading heating systems and power plants. Самбууням.М, MONTSAME, January 2

Sentencing of Hong Kong democrats just the latest legal blow. On November 19, 2024, a Hong Kong court sentenced 45 pro-democracy activists to jail terms of four to ten years under the national security law imposed by Beijing in 2020. Known as the "Hong Kong 47," the defendants participated in unofficial primary elections aiming to strengthen legislative opposition to the government, which Beijing perceived as a threat. Criticism from Western democracies followed, with Amnesty International calling the event a "ruthless purge of the opposition." The national security law has drawn attention for its harsh measures, including restrictions on bail, politically selected judges, and the criminalization of ordinary democratic practices. Further exacerbating the erosion of political freedoms, Hong Kong authorities revived colonial-era sedition laws, reconfigured the Legislative Council to exclude pro-democrats, and reshaped education to instill political compliance. Despite these developments, global attention remains limited, overshadowed by other international crises. Brendan Clift, East Asia Forum, January 3

China’s silence over Russia–North Korea ties an opportunity for the US. The rapid development of Russia–North Korea relations in 2024, including a mutual defense pact and the deployment of 10,000 North Korean soldiers to Ukraine, has raised concerns in Washington and Beijing. While the U.S. has urged China to leverage its influence to deter North Korea, Beijing remains silent, valuing its relationships with both Russia and North Korea despite growing insecurities over Moscow’s role in Pyongyang. The U.S. is encouraged to build a global coalition to delegitimize North Korea’s military support rather than relying on unilateral pressure. China views North Korea as both an asset and liability, maintaining significant economic ties but wary of its nuclear ambitions and destabilizing actions. Meanwhile, the U.S. could strengthen ties with Southeast Asian nations to garner multilateral condemnation of North Korea’s troop deployments, navigating their wariness of U.S.-China rivalry while exploiting Russia’s limited influence in the region. Alexander Richter, East Asia Forum, January 2

Indonesia prepares to bring ex-ISIS families home. After a four-year moratorium, Indonesia is preparing to repatriate over 500 citizens, primarily women and children, from Syria’s Al-Hol and Roj camps under a phased program involving identity verification, risk assessment, rehabilitation, and reintegration. The move addresses domestic readiness, international pressure, and long-term security concerns, as failure to act risks further radicalization of children. Improved infrastructure, such as improved rehabilitation protocols at facilities like Sentra Handayani and the implementation of the National Action Plan on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (RAN PE), strengthens Indonesia’s capacity to handle returnees. This initiative also reflects broader collaboration between government and civil society to prevent extremism and secure reintegration. Adlini Ilma Ghaisany Sjah, East Asia Forum, December 28

EU–Japan security partnership shows promise but lacks action. In November 2024, Japan and the European Union formalized a new security and defense partnership aimed at deepening cooperation on maritime security, joint exercises, and capacity building in Indo-Pacific states. This builds on the 2018 Economic and Strategic Partnership Agreement but remains vague and exploratory. Both parties share concerns over authoritarian threats from China and Russia and the erosion of the rules-based international order but face internal constraints: Japan is grappling with fiscal and political challenges, while the EU struggles with member state unanimity. Despite shared values and interests, the agreement shows the limited capacity of either party to act decisively beyond their regions, though future cooperation may evolve as global challenges intensify. Paul O’Shea, East Asia Forum, December 28

Malaysia’s Turn in the ASEAN Hotseat. As of January 2025, Malaysia has assumed the ASEAN chairmanship, a role that comes at a critical juncture for the regional bloc. Under the theme "Inclusivity and Sustainability," inspired by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Madani philosophy, Malaysia aims to address challenges such as geopolitical tensions, internal divisions over the Myanmar crisis, and the protracted negotiations for a binding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. The success of Malaysia's leadership is expected to set the tone for subsequent chairs, the Philippines and Singapore, in strengthening ASEAN's unity and relevance amid escalating global challenges. Angeline Tan, The Diplomat, January 1

Synergising Digitaltech and Climatetech to Enhance ASEAN Climate Action. Integrating climate technology (climatetech) and digital technology (digitaltech) in Southeast Asia's agricultural sector can greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve climate resilience. For instance, the Alternate-Wetting-Drying (AWD) method in rice cultivation, which involves periodic draining and re-flooding of paddy fields, can cut methane emissions by up to 50%. The adoption of digital sensors to monitor water levels can facilitate the widespread implementation of AWD, enabling precise measurement and verification for carbon credit systems. Such technological convergence mitigates environmental impact and enhances productivity and sustainability in the region's agrifood systems. Paul Teng, FULCRUM, January 3

The 'Second China Shock' and its Implications for Southeast Asia. China's advancement in science and technology has elevated its manufacturing capabilities, leading to a significant increase in high-value exports. This development, termed the 'second China shock,' poses challenges for Southeast Asian economies, particularly in sectors like solar panels and electric vehicles, where Chinese products are highly competitive. Consequently, Western nations have implemented trade measures that also affect Southeast Asian countries integrated into China's manufacturing supply chains. To navigate these challenges, ASEAN nations must balance engagement with China while safeguarding their economic interests amid shifting global trade dynamics. John Lee, FULCRUM, December 31

The Philippines’ Near-Standoff with China at Sabina Shoal: Bolstering Preventive Deployment. In April 2024, the Philippines deployed the coast guard vessel Teresa Magbanua to Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands, aiming to prevent a potential Chinese occupation. This proactive measure, enabled by recent improvements in maritime capabilities, marked a shift from reactive to preventive strategies in asserting sovereignty. Despite initial tensions, including blockades and ramming by Chinese vessels leading to the ship's temporary withdrawal in September, the Philippines has since maintained a presence in the area without further reported harassment. This approach shows Manila's commitment to safeguarding its interests in the South China Sea through strategic deployment and deterrence. Edcel John A. Ibarra, FULCRUM, December 30

Has Kazakhstan Advanced in Energy Security and Transit Potential? In 2024, Kazakhstan made significant strides in improving its energy security and transit capabilities. The country diversified its oil export routes, notably increasing shipments through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to reduce reliance on Russian pathways. Additionally, Kazakhstan expanded its role as a transit hub between Asia and Europe by developing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. These initiatives have bolstered Kazakhstan's position in regional energy markets and global trade networks. Michael Rossi, The Geopolitics, December 31

The First Phase of the TAPI Gas Pipeline: From Serhetabat, Turkmenistan to Herat, Afghanistan. On September 10, 2024, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan commenced the construction of the first phase of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline, extending from Serhetabat in Turkmenistan to Herat in Afghanistan. This initiative is part of the Taliban's strategy to revive energy projects to bolster internal legitimacy. Notably, leaders from Pakistan and India were absent from the inauguration, indicating a cautious stance toward the project. The TAPI pipeline aims to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan's Galkynysh field through Afghanistan to South Asia, with an estimated annual capacity of 33 billion cubic meters. The project's phased implementation reflects a pragmatic approach by the Taliban and Turkmenistan to advance regional energy cooperation amid complex geopolitical dynamics. Vali Kaleji, CACI Analyst, January 2

Could the Myanmar Junta Rapidly Collapse Like al-Assad? The unexpected fall of Syria's al-Assad regime has prompted speculation about the potential for similar rapid collapses of other authoritarian governments, including Myanmar's military junta. Despite facing significant resistance and widespread civil unrest since the 2021 coup, the Myanmar junta has maintained control over key regions. However, the Syrian precedent illustrates that even seemingly stable regimes can disintegrate swiftly under certain conditions. Factors such as sustained internal opposition, international isolation, economic hardships, and loss of elite support could precipitate a sudden downfall. While direct parallels between Syria and Myanmar are limited, the possibility of an abrupt collapse of the Myanmar junta cannot be entirely dismissed. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, December 26

U.S. Export Controls Come Home to Roost. In December 2024, the U.S. expanded technology restrictions on China, blacklisting 140 Chinese companies and imposing controls on 24 types of chipmaking equipment and three categories of software essential for semiconductor development. In swift retaliation, China's Ministry of Commerce banned sales to the U.S. of several dual-use metals, including gallium, germanium, and antimony, which are crucial for both defense and civilian sectors like telecommunications and renewable energy. China, being the largest supplier of these critical metals, accounted for over half of U.S. imports of germanium and gallium between 2018 and 2021. Since the initial controls in August 2023, U.S. imports of these metals from China have significantly declined, leading to price increases of 19.1% for gallium and 88.3% for germanium as of early December. The updated Chinese export rules prohibit the resale of these metals sourced from China, closing previous loopholes and making it challenging for the U.S. to find alternative suppliers in the short term. Developing new sources will require substantial investment and time, indicating that the U.S. high-tech sector may face ongoing material shortages and increased costs. Zhou Xiaoming, China-US Focus, December 27

China's Fast-Changing Economic Adjustments. China's economic growth model, which relied heavily on exports and infrastructure investment, has faltered in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic. Geopolitical tensions, notably with the United States, have exacerbated challenges for China's export sector. Domestically, overinvestment has led to diminishing returns in infrastructure and a debt-laden real estate market. In response, Chinese firms are increasingly adopting digital technologies, with significant capital directed toward artificial intelligence and other advanced industries. However, this shift has introduced intense competition, often referred to as "involution," especially among young professionals facing a saturated job market. To navigate these challenges, China must balance structural reforms with policies that restore confidence and promote sustainable growth. Zhang Jun, China-US Focus, December 27

After the Fall: China’s Economy in 2025. China’s economic growth has slowed, with GDP growth estimated at 2.4–2.8% in 2024, far below official reports. Overinvestment in infrastructure and property sectors has contributed to declining fiscal health, with weak local government spending and falling household consumption undermining recovery efforts. While Beijing has introduced policies like debt refinancing and trade-in subsidies to stimulate growth, structural challenges persist. Exports remain a bright spot, buoyed by competitive pricing, but rising protectionism and global trade tensions may curtail gains. Economic adjustments are projected to stabilize growth to 3–4% in 2025, but long-term recovery requires deeper economic reforms and rebalancing toward consumption-led growth. Daniel H. Rosen, Logan Wright, Jeremy Smith, Matthew Mingey, and Rogan Quinn, Rhodium Group, January 3

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