South Korea investigators file request to extend President Yoon's detention. Investigators in South Korea have requested an extension of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s detention as he faces allegations of masterminding an insurrection. Yoon, arrested on Wednesday for his December declaration of martial law, is being held at the Seoul Detention Centre. The Corruption Investigation Office cited the severity of the charges, which could lead to life imprisonment. Meanwhile, Yoon’s legal team denied the accusations, as support for his ruling People Power Party rose amid deep political divisions. Ju-min Park and Joyce Lee, Reuters, January 17
TikTok sell-or-ban law is upheld by U.S. Supreme Court. The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld a law requiring TikTok to be banned unless it secures a non-Chinese buyer by Sunday, citing national security concerns over its Chinese ownership. The court acknowledged free speech implications but deemed the law justified to address risks tied to data collection and foreign control. TikTok CEO Chew Shou Zi pledged efforts to keep the platform available, while critics called the ruling speculative and restrictive. The ban's enforcement now hinges on incoming executive actions. Khushboo Razdan, Igor Patrick, and Kawala Xie, South China Morning Post, January 17
China’s population falls for a third straight year, posing challenges for its government and economy. China’s population dropped by 1.39 million in 2024 to 1.408 billion, marking the third consecutive year of decline. The trend reflects aging demographics and a shrinking workforce, exacerbated by low birth rates and limited immigration. Over 22% of the population is aged 60 or older, with forecasts suggesting this will exceed 30% by 2035. Government incentives to boost birth rates have seen limited success, raising concerns over economic sustainability and social stability. Christopher Bodeen, AP News, January 17
Investigators in final preparations to file arrest warrant against Yoon over martial law bid. South Korea's anti-corruption agency is nearing a decision to file for a warrant to formally arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his failed martial law attempt. The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) plans to submit the request to the Seoul Western District Court before a Friday night deadline. Yoon has refused further questioning, citing health reasons, and a court has dismissed his challenge to the legality of his detention. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, January 17
First kilometers of TAPI gas pipeline completed in Afghanistan. The Taliban-led government has announced the completion of the first three kilometers of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline in Herat province. The 1,814-kilometer pipeline will transport natural gas from Turkmenistan's Galkynysh gas field to Pakistan and India, with Afghanistan retaining 5% of the annual 33 billion cubic meters of gas. The project aims to enhance regional economic ties, generate transit fees, and create jobs, emphasizing Afghanistan's commitment to ensuring project security. Darmen Gill, The Times of Central Asia, January 17
PM looking to elevate VN-Poland relations to strategic partnership. During his official visit to Poland, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh delivered a policy address at the University of Warsaw, emphasizing Vietnam's intention to elevate its relationship with Poland to a strategic partnership. He proposed six measures to enhance bilateral ties, including strengthening political and diplomatic engagements, boosting economic and trade collaboration to achieve a bilateral trade turnover of US$5 billion annually, and fostering cooperation in technology and innovation. Vietnam News, January 17
Philippine navy holds exercise near disputed shoal amid standoff with China. The Philippine navy conducted drills near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea from January 17-19 to strengthen its ability to secure Philippine waters and territorial integrity. The exercises, involving the frigate Antonio Luna and two patrol ships, occurred as tensions persist over the presence of China's largest coast guard vessel in the area. The Philippines has called on China to respect its exclusive economic zone, citing a 2016 international ruling invalidating Beijing's territorial claims. Karen Lema, Reuters, January 17
Xi Jinping, Donald Trump discuss TikTok, trade, fentanyl in phone conversation. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call discussing TikTok, trade, and fentanyl ahead of the Supreme Court’s TikTok ruling. Trump called the discussion “very good” and expressed optimism about solving bilateral issues. Xi emphasized mutual respect and proposed cooperation on global challenges, including Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while urging caution on Taiwan-related matters. This marked their first direct communication since 2021. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, January 17
Indonesia needs $6 billion more in budget to fast-track free meals programme. Indonesia requires an additional 100 trillion rupiah ($6.11 billion) to expand its free meals programme to benefit 83 million people by 2025, ahead of the original 2029 target. Currently budgeted at 71 trillion rupiah, the programme serves school children and pregnant women, reaching 570,000 people on its first day. Financial markets are wary of added debt impacting fiscal stability. President Prabowo Subianto is exploring funding options, with some contributions potentially coming from local governments. Stefanno Sulaiman, Reuters, January 17
Former Vice President Pence calls on Trump to renew US support for Taiwan. Former Vice President Mike Pence urged President-elect Donald Trump to reaffirm support for Taiwan during a visit to Taipei, warning that its fall to China could trigger a nuclear arms race and destabilize global security. He emphasized the importance of Taiwan in trade, technology, and deterring Chinese aggression. Pence called for stronger military aid, a free trade agreement, and broader international support for Taiwan’s defense. AP News, January 17
Register of corrupt officials to be created in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan plans to establish a public register of officials convicted of bribery and other corruption-related offenses. The registry will be accessible to all citizens through the Anti-Corruption Agency’s website, with removal only upon acquittal or expungement of the criminal record. Legislative amendments also propose criminalizing the promise or extortion of a bribe to prevent corruption at its earliest stages. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, January 17
Japan foreign minister to highlight defence spending, investment at Trump inaugural. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya announced plans to emphasize Japan's economic and national security contributions during his visit to Washington for President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. Iwaya will meet members of Trump’s incoming administration, including Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio. He will underscore Japan's progress toward allocating 2% of GDP to defense by 2027 and its role as a leading U.S. investor. Tim Kelly, Reuters, January 17
Russian-backed wind-power project takes shape in Mandalay. Rosatom, Russia's state-owned energy firm, and Myanmar's Zeya & Associates are set to implement a 200 MW wind-power project near Mount Popa in Mandalay Region's Kyaukpadaung Township. Mandalay Region Chief Minister U Myo Aung met with company executives to discuss turbine locations. The project aims to address Myanmar's electricity shortages, as current generation meets only half of the 4,400 MW daily demand. Hein Htoo Zan, The Irrawaddy, January 17
China’s EV success faces a battery recycling problem. China’s electric vehicle (EV) industry has surged to global dominance, producing 1.2 million EVs in 2024 and controlling 76% of the global market. However, the rapid rise has outpaced the development of a robust regulatory framework for recycling decommissioned EV batteries. While over 40,000 companies are licensed to process used batteries, only a fraction of recycling occurs through certified firms due to weak oversight and a fragmented supply chain. Technological advancements, though abundant—China holds 44% of EV-related patents—lack standardization in areas like battery lifecycle tracing and carbon accounting. Despite these challenges, China’s vast market and potential for regulatory cohesion position it to lead global EV battery recycling if it can enforce transparent, accountable, and standardized practices. The future sustainability of China’s EV boom hinges on decisive actions to manage post-consumer EV components responsibly. Yifei Li, East Asia Forum, January 18
Australia’s rare earth policy and pricing misaligned. Australia’s rare earth industry faced a challenging 2024, marked by low global prices that hindered project development and forced Lynas, the nation’s sole producer, to cut production. Chinese firms, accused of manipulating prices to sustain global dominance, fill the void left by Western companies unwilling to support producers with offtake agreements. Proposed solutions, such as Iluka Resources’ “cap and floor” pricing model, face skepticism from consumers and industry players, with critics arguing it exposes buyers to higher costs without addressing the structural market challenges. Western funding policies, requiring non-Chinese offtake agreements, further complicate financing for rare earth projects, leaving miners reliant on a narrow and underdeveloped network of non-Chinese customers. A true supply chain strategy, rather than an overemphasis on mine expansion, is essential for addressing these issues and ensuring rare earths independence in the West. Eli Hayes, East Asia Forum, January 17
Human Rights Key as Tokyo and Riyadh Mark Bilateral Milestone. Japan's Parliamentary Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, recently visited Riyadh to engage with the Saudi Judo Federation and discuss opportunities under Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030," led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This initiative aims to modernize the Saudi economy and attract foreign investment, especially as global oil demand declines due to shifts away from fossil fuels. Central to this strategy is improving the Kingdom's soft power and rebranding its international image, notably through sports. However, Saudi Arabia's human rights record, including issues like the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the ongoing war in Yemen, poses challenges to these efforts. Japan, committed to promoting human rights and democracy, faces a diplomatic balancing act in strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia while upholding its own values. Mark S. Cogan, Geopolitical Monitor, January 17
Japan has nothing to fear from Trump — except in maybe one area. As Donald Trump prepares to return as U.S. president, Japan’s strong economic ties with the U.S.—as its largest foreign investor and debt holder—ensure stability in trade and investment relations. Japan’s focus on producing locally and its preference for a balanced yen align with Trump’s economic priorities. However, defense spending is expected to emerge as a key area of pressure. With rising regional threats from China, North Korea, and Russia, Japan’s commitment to increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027 may no longer suffice. Trump is likely to push Japan to raise its defense budget further, aligning with his calls for NATO and allies like South Korea to spend 4-5% of GDP on defense. This challenge will test Japan’s political leadership amid predictable resistance from domestic factions advocating for pacifism and fiscal caution. Edo Naito, The Japan Times, January 17
Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship: Facing Treacherous Geopolitical Headwinds. As Malaysia assumes the ASEAN Chairmanship in 2025, it confronts geopolitical challenges, notably the anticipated change in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump. The "Make America Great Again" agenda may deprioritize Southeast Asia, complicating ASEAN's engagement with the U.S. Malaysia's theme of "Inclusivity and Sustainability" reflects Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's vision of an ASEAN renaissance rooted in compassion, justice, and integrity. A key milestone will be adopting the ASEAN Community Vision 2045, aiming for an integrated, people-centric community. Addressing the Myanmar crisis remains critical for ASEAN's credibility, with Malaysia poised to play a pivotal role in seeking resolutions. The success of Malaysia's chairmanship will depend on its ability to navigate these geopolitical headwinds while promoting unity and progress within ASEAN. Sharon Seah, Fulcrum, January 17
The Economic Implications of Donald Trump’s Presidency for Southeast Asia. As Donald Trump prepares to assume office on January 20, 2025, his proposed trade policies signal a shift towards protectionism, marking the most protectionist U.S. administration in nearly a century. Trump's plans include imposing global tariffs of 10-20% on all countries, with at least 60% tariffs specifically targeting China. He also intends to weaken the U.S. dollar to make imports more expensive and U.S. exports cheaper, and to penalize countries attempting to diversify away from the U.S. dollar in trade transactions. These measures are expected to further erode the rules-based global trade system, particularly affecting Southeast Asian nations deeply integrated into regional and global supply chains. The World Trade Organization (WTO), already weakened by institutional challenges and the U.S. blocking the reappointment of Appellate Body judges, may become increasingly ineffective in enforcing trade rules. Southeast Asian policymakers and business leaders should prepare for a more fragmented and protectionist global trade environment, necessitating strategic adjustments to navigate the anticipated economic disruptions. Stephen Olson, Fulcrum, January 16
The Deafening Silence of Hun Sen and the Cambodian Government Following the Assassination of Opposition Figure Lim Kimya in Bangkok. On January 7, 2025, Lim Kimya, a former Cambodian opposition lawmaker affiliated with the dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was assassinated in Bangkok, Thailand. The assailant, identified as Thai national Ekkalak Paenoi, was apprehended in Cambodia and extradited to Thailand. Despite the gravity of the incident, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and his government have remained conspicuously silent, refraining from condemning the murder or offering condolences. This lack of response raises concerns about the Cambodian government's stance on political violence and its commitment to protecting opposition figures. Observers fear that such silence may embolden further attacks against dissidents, undermining democratic principles and human rights in the region. Sam Rainsey, The Geopolitics, January 10