Asia Daily: January 16, 2024
News
Communist Party must ‘win the hearts’ of people in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan: Xi. Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for the Chinese Communist Party to win over the people of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. This strategy aims to strengthen patriotic sentiments and counter separatist activities, especially in light of recent developments in Taiwan's political landscape. Xi's focus on fostering national unity and combating separatism reflects Beijing's approach to managing its relations with these regions. Natalie Wong, South China Morning Post, January 15
North Korea's Kim calls for change in status of South, warns of war. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has called for a constitutional change to South Korea's status and warned of war while asserting that North Korea does not seek, but will not avoid conflict. This statement came during a speech at the Supreme People's Assembly, where he also announced the closure of three organizations related to unification and inter-Korean tourism. The announcement follows heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, marked by missile tests and Pyongyang's shift in policy towards Seoul. Hyunsu Yim, Reuters, January 15
Japan, Australia in talks on cooperation in military contingencies. Japan and Australia are discussing defense cooperation guidelines to respond to regional emergencies, particularly China's maritime assertiveness. These talks, building on a security cooperation declaration signed by both nations' leaders, focus on role-sharing and joint military drills in the Indo-Pacific. The collaboration includes strategic planning for East and South China Sea emergencies and possibly utilizing Australian land for Japanese missile testing. Kyodo News, January 15
Philippines to develop islands in South China Sea - military chief. The Philippines, under the leadership of military chief Romeo Brawner, plans to develop islands in the South China Sea to support its troops stationed there. This move is part of Manila's efforts to assert sovereignty in the region amid escalating tensions with China. The development will include nine features such as Thitu Island (Pag-asa), strategically vital in the South China Sea, and the Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin). These developments come as the Philippines refocuses its military strategy from internal to territorial defense, including acquiring new ships, radars, and aircraft. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, January 15
Nauru switches diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. Nauru has announced its decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, reducing Taiwan's international allies to 12. This move, part of China's ongoing efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, comes just days after Taiwan's presidential elections. Nauru's government stated that aligning with the one-China principle, which views Taiwan as part of China, marks a significant step in its development. The change in Nauru's diplomatic stance was unexpected for its ambassador to Taiwan, who was instructed to leave following the announcement. Taijing Wu and Ken Moritsugu, AP News, January 15
Malaysia receives seven concept proposals for KL-Singapore high-speed rail project. Malaysia has received seven concept proposals from Malaysian and international groups for the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High-Speed Rail (KL-SG HSR) project. The proposals, submitted to MyHSR Corporation, are part of a public-private partnership initiative under the Design-Finance-Build-Operate-Transfer model. The project, originally proposed in 2013 and discontinued in 2020, is now seeing renewed interest following Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's discussions with Singaporean leaders. Channel News Asia, January 15
National Assembly opens fifth extraordinary session. Vietnam's 15th National Assembly commenced its fifth extraordinary meeting, focusing on discussing and adopting the draft revised laws on land and credit institutions. The session, attended by key government figures including Party General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng and Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, aims to address significant socio-economic aspects for the 2021-2025 period. This meeting is crucial for amending critical laws, enhancing land use efficiency, and adjusting financial sector regulations to foster national development. Vietnam News, January 15
Myanmar rebel group claims control of India border town. The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic insurgent group in western Myanmar, claims to have captured Paletwa, a key town near the India and Bangladesh borders. This development, part of a broader offensive against Myanmar's military, is significant for India, given Paletwa's role in a major development project aimed at enhancing regional connectivity. The AA’s control of Paletwa's strategic positions enhances their capability for further operations in the region, posing a critical challenge to Myanmar's military leadership and its ability to maintain morale and control. Jonathan Head and Oliver Snow, BBC News, January 15
North Korean foreign minister visits Moscow for talks as concern grows over an alleged arms deal. North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui is in Moscow for talks amid increasing concerns about a potential arms cooperation deal with Russia. The visit, initiated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's invitation, follows allegations by the U.S. and South Korea of North Korea providing arms to Russia for use in Ukraine. The Biden administration claims to have evidence of North Korean missiles being used in the conflict. This visit is closely monitored for insights into the deepening ties between North Korea and Russia, both of whom have denied the arms transfer accusations. AP News, January 15
Five more people leave DP to join new party ahead of general elections. Five individuals, including former lawmakers and mayors, have left South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party (DP) to join a new party being formed by former DP leader Lee Nak-yon. This move comes ahead of April's general elections and follows Lee Nak-yon's own departure from the DP. Meanwhile, former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok has also left his party, fueling speculation about the formation of a new 'big tent' party. The DP leadership remains skeptical about further departures significantly affecting the party's standing. Kang Jae-eun, Yonhap News Agency, January 15
Long Form
How to Break the Deadlock in the Indonesia-EU Trade Talks. The prolonged trade negotiations between the European Union and Indonesia, which have seen 16 rounds since 2016, are facing a deadlock over contentious issues. To progress, both sides are considering a "built-in agenda" approach, which involves revisiting unresolved issues after the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) comes into force. Despite some advances, substantial differences remain, particularly on market access, government procurement, and investment dispute settlement. The feasibility of finalizing the FTA is further complicated by upcoming elections in both Indonesia and the EU. This strategy aims to treat the FTA as a dynamic document, allowing for periodic revisions and adjustments to enhance its benefits. Fajar Hidayat, The Diplomat, January 16
Is Vietnam Entering Uncharted Waters? Vietnam faces a potential political shake-up amid the recent absence of General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, sparking speculation about his health and the Communist Party of Vietnam's (CPV) future leadership. Trong's absence has led to three scenarios: his inability to resume full duties, incapacitation, or death, each requiring different succession plans. The current pool of potential successors for the next party general secretary is narrowed by age and experience requirements. The situation could intensify internal party competition and test Vietnam's consensual decision-making culture. However, the CPV's emphasis on stability and sectoral balance is likely to prevent a political crisis or power struggle. Carl Thayer, The Diplomat, January 15
Pawns in border clash, India and Pakistan fishermen desperate for change. Fishermen from India and Pakistan are frequently caught in the crossfire of the ongoing border disputes between the two nations. Many, like Maniben's husband Bhupatbhai from India, are detained for allegedly crossing maritime boundaries, with families often left in despair. The contentious Sir Creek region is a major flashpoint, leading to numerous arrests and detentions. Both countries have released hundreds of fishermen in 2023, but the issue persists due to disputed maritime boundaries and the impact of pollution and climate change on fishing grounds. This ongoing conflict has significant humanitarian implications, with families suffering from the loss and uncertainty of detained fishermen. Efforts for improved relations and a more compassionate approach to the fishermen's plight are essential for resolving this long-standing issue. Kanika Gupta and Jamaima Afridi, Nikkei Asia, January 16
Elections cast a shadow of uncertainty over Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. Sri Lanka is showing signs of economic recovery nearly two years after announcing a debt default, but upcoming presidential elections in 2024 cast a shadow of uncertainty. Inflation has dropped significantly, and the economy has returned to positive growth. President Ranil Wickremesinghe, central to the recovery, has not declared his intentions for the elections, where the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a Marxist-Leninist party, is currently leading in polls. The elections come at a critical time as Sri Lanka works to convince foreign creditors of its commitment to economic reforms under the IMF's Extended Fund Facility. The country still faces challenges like external debt restructuring, falling export earnings, and weak household spending. Regardless of election outcomes, Sri Lanka must continue with tough economic measures and crucial reforms to ensure sustainable recovery. Dushni Weerakoon, East Asia Forum, January 16
Fiji’s tenuous grip on political stability. Fiji is navigating a politically volatile landscape following the election of Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka and the departure of long-time leader Frank Bainimarama. Rabuka's government, formed with a coalition, has managed to maintain stability despite internal tensions and scrutiny from the Republic of Fiji Military Forces over proposed constitutional changes. Significant policy shifts include repealing controversial acts, establishing a Truth and Reconciliation Commission, and reinstating the Great Council of Chiefs. However, Rabuka's government faces challenges in managing foreign relations, especially with its shift towards Western allies and decisions on international issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict. The government's future hinges on maintaining coalition unity amid Rabuka's unpredictable decision-making style and the potential for no-confidence motions. William Waqavakatoga, East Asia Forum, January 16