China
China’s trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite Trump tariff jolt. China posted a record $1.189 trillion trade surplus in 2025 as exporters offset falling U.S. shipments by expanding sales to Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the European Union. December exports rose 6.6% year on year and imports climbed 5.7%, both beating forecasts, despite renewed tariff pressure from the Trump administration. Customs officials said diversified markets have strengthened China’s ability to withstand external risks. Joe Cash and Xiuhao Chen, Reuters, January 14
Trump sets 180-day deadline to counter China’s control of critical minerals. President Donald Trump invoked national security powers to reduce U.S. reliance on Chinese-processed critical minerals and gave allies 180 days to secure alternative supply arrangements. The directive orders trade and commerce officials to negotiate new agreements or impose tariffs, quotas, or minimum import prices. Measures target supply diversification, allied processing capacity, and non-Chinese investment. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, January 15
Japan
Japan PM readies snap election, February 8 ballot eyed. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to dissolve Japan’s parliament next week and is considering a Feb. 8 snap election to seek public backing for higher spending. Party officials said she aims to capitalize on strong approval ratings despite market jitters over fiscal expansion. China tensions and passage of the 2026 budget loom over the campaign. Tamiyuki Kihara, Yoshifumi Takemoto, and John Geddie, Reuters, January 14
No options ruled out to counter excessive yen moves: Japan finance minister. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government is prepared to take action against excessive yen movements after the currency fell below 159 per dollar, its weakest level since July 2024. She said recent volatility does not reflect economic fundamentals and warned against speculative trading. Her remarks followed talks with U.S. and G7 counterparts and were taken by markets as a signal of possible intervention. Kyodo News, January 14
CDP considers election move to woo reluctant Komeito. Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party is considering withdrawing candidates in four districts to strengthen cooperation with Komeito ahead of a possible snap election. The move aims to advance higher-level opposition coordination while securing Komeito’s backing elsewhere. Internal divisions persist within Komeito, which remains cautious about fully severing ties with the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Amane Sugawara, Takahiro Okubo, and Mika Kuniyoshi, The Asahi Shimbun, January 14
Takaichi tells coalition reps of plan to dissolve Lower House. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi informed ruling coalition leaders of her intention to dissolve the Lower House soon after the Diet opens on Jan. 23. Officials said election scenarios under consideration include votes on Feb. 8 or Feb. 15, depending on campaign timing. The move would mark the first early-January dissolution in decades and is driven by Takaichi’s high approval ratings. The Asahi Shimbun, January 14
South Korea
Death penalty requested for Yoon in insurrection case, ruling set for Feb. 19. South Korean prosecutors sought the death penalty for former President Yoon Suk Yeol, accusing him of leading an insurrection through an unconstitutional declaration of martial law in December 2024. They said the move constituted a grave destruction of constitutional order and posed a serious threat to democratic governance. The Seoul Central District Court said it will deliver its verdict on Feb. 19. Bahk Eun-ji, The Korea Times, January 13
S. Korea launches interagency team for U.S. talks on civil uranium enrichment, spent fuel reprocessing. South Korea launched an interagency task force to prepare for negotiations with the United States on securing approval for civil uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing. The move follows U.S. support expressed during an October summit between Presidents Lee Jae Myung and Donald Trump. Officials said the team will coordinate a whole-of-government approach ahead of expected talks to revise the bilateral nuclear agreement. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, January 9
Lee to meet senior UAE official this week to discuss arms industry cooperation. President Lee Jae Myung is set to meet a senior United Arab Emirates official in Seoul to discuss cooperation in the arms industry. Talks will focus on follow-up measures for joint weapons development and production discussed during Lee’s November visit to the UAE. Officials said both sides aim to reach a basic agreement on arms cooperation by February. Chae Yun-hwan, Yonhap News Agency, January 14
North Korea
S. Korea considers restoring pact reducing military tension with N. Korea. South Korea is considering restoring a suspended inter-Korean military agreement aimed at reducing border tensions, National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said. The 2018 pact, signed under former President Moon Jae-in, was fully suspended in 2024 amid heightened tensions with Pyongyang. Wi said internal discussions are underway, but no final decision has been reached. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, January 14
Myanmar
Myanmar says Rohingya genocide case at The Hague is ‘flawed, unfounded’. Myanmar’s military government said a genocide case brought by The Gambia at the International Court of Justice is flawed in fact and law. A foreign ministry statement rejected allegations of atrocities against the Rohingya and said authorities are cooperating with the court in good faith. Hearings opened this week, with Myanmar’s legal response set to begin Friday. Adam Hancock, Al Jazeera, January 14
Cambodia
Cambodia says Thai troops still occupy civilian areas, testing December truce. Cambodia said Thai forces continue to occupy civilian areas along the disputed border, preventing thousands of families from returning home despite a December ceasefire. Thailand rejected the claims as baseless and said troop positions comply with de-escalation terms. Phnom Penh called for renewed boundary talks and cited China’s role in supporting the truce. Devjyot Ghoshal and Martin Petty, Reuters, January 14
Philippines
Marcos wants Zaldy Co extradited, wants treaty with Portugal. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered government agencies to pursue an extradition treaty with Portugal to secure the return of former lawmaker Zaldy Co, who is believed to be in the country. Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla said the Philippines currently lacks an extradition agreement with Portugal and will also seek Co’s repatriation through Interpol. Co faces multiple corruption charges linked to an alleged anomalous flood control project. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, January 13
Dela Rosa said to be hiding in Davao. Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla said Senator Ronald dela Rosa is believed to be staying in Davao City but authorities cannot act without an official arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Dela Rosa has been absent from Senate sessions for nearly two months amid reports of a possible ICC warrant tied to the drug war case. Remulla said the government has received no formal notice from the ICC. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, January 14
Indonesia
Indonesia seeks ‘beyond business as usual’ approach on Myanmar election. Indonesia called for a more transformative ASEAN response to Myanmar’s junta-run election, which Jakarta and others have widely dismissed as illegitimate. Foreign Minister Sugiono said the situation requires inclusive dialogue and a clear path toward national reconciliation rather than routine diplomatic steps. He reaffirmed Indonesia’s commitment to the ASEAN five-point consensus while acknowledging frustration over its slow progress. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, January 14
Indonesia seeks non-permanent UN Security Council seat for 2029–2030. Indonesia announced it will bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for the 2029–2030 term. Foreign Minister Sugiono said the decision reflects Indonesia’s commitment to multilateralism and to reforming global governance institutions. He added that Jakarta’s candidacy aims to help ensure the council remains effective amid growing geopolitical pressures. ANTARA News, January 14
Singapore
Pritam Singh rejects motion against him, says his ‘conscience remains clear’. Singapore opposition leader Pritam Singh rejected a parliamentary motion questioning his suitability to remain Leader of the Opposition following his conviction for lying to Parliament. He said his conduct was not dishonourable and insisted his conscience remains clear despite the High Court upholding his conviction. Singh lifted the party whip to allow Workers’ Party MPs to vote freely on the motion. Anjali Raguraman and Samuel Devaraj, The Straits Times, January 14
Singapore parliament votes to remove opposition leader after lying conviction. Singapore’s parliament voted to remove opposition leader Pritam Singh after his conviction for lying to lawmakers. The motion said his conduct was dishonorable and incompatible with the role, though final approval rests with the prime minister. Singh said the conviction did not erase his right to maintain innocence. Jun Yuan Yong, Reuters, January 14
Taiwan
TPP chair says party will propose revised special defense budget. Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Huang Kuo-chang said his party will submit a revised special defense budget after meetings with U.S. officials in Washington. He said the government’s proposed NT$1.25 trillion plan lacks clarity on spending details and risks waste despite Taiwan’s need to strengthen defense. Huang said the TPP will draft its own proposal after a closed legislative briefing by the defense ministry. Kuo Chien-shen and Matthew Mazzetta, Focus Taiwan, January 14
Presidential impeachment hearings begin as parties clash over constitutionality. Taiwan’s legislature opened public hearings on impeaching President Lai Ching-te, triggering sharp disputes between ruling and opposition parties over constitutional authority. The ruling party said the impeachment lacks legal basis following a court ruling that barred lawmakers from questioning the president in real time. Opposition lawmakers argued that impeachment is justified to uphold checks and balances under a minority government. James Thompson, Lin Ching-yin, and Wang Yang-yu, Focus Taiwan, January 14
Taiwan envoys head to Washington for trade, investment talks, source says. Senior Taiwanese officials traveled to Washington to advance talks on cutting U.S. tariffs and securing a possible investment deal. Taipei aims to reduce tariffs on its exports to 15% and has discussed deeper cooperation on technology and supply chains. An announcement could come by the end of the month. Trevor Hunnicutt and Dagmarah Mackos, Reuters, January 14
Taiwan names senior DPP politician new cross-strait chief amid Beijing’s scepticism. Taiwan appointed senior Democratic Progressive Party politician Su Jia-chyuan to head the Straits Exchange Foundation, the semi-official body handling technical cross-strait affairs. Su is a former legislative speaker and ex-head of the Taiwan-Japan Relations Association, roles Beijing views as aligned with pro-independence positions. Chinese officials reiterated that dialogue can resume only if Taipei accepts the “1992 consensus.” Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, January 14
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan elevates U.S. ties to presidential-level. Kazakhstan has placed management of its relationship with the United States under direct presidential oversight by appointing Ambassador Yerzhan Kazykhan as the president’s representative for negotiations with Washington. The move reflects the growing scope of cooperation spanning investment, energy security, uranium supply, and Eurasian connectivity, with the United States remaining Kazakhstan’s largest foreign investor. The Times of Central Asia, January 14
Kazakhstan urges U.S. and Europe to help secure oil transport after tanker attacks in Black Sea. Kazakhstan called on the United States and Europe to help protect oil shipments after drones hit tankers heading to a key Black Sea export terminal. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium route carries about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and handles roughly 1% of global supply. Officials warned rising attacks threaten international energy infrastructure. Anastasia Teterevleva and Vladimir Soldatkin, Reuters, January 14
East Asia
U.S.-China Competition for Artificial Intelligence Markets: Analyzing Global Use Patterns of Large Language Models. Website traffic data from Similarweb across 135 countries from April 2024 to August 2025 show a tripling of monthly visits to major LLM platforms, from about 2.4 billion to nearly 7.8 billion by May 2025. U.S.-based services held about 92 to 93 percent of global visits through August 2025. DeepSeek R1 launched in January 2025 and drove China-based visits from 136 million in December 2024 to 763 million in February 2025, lifting China-based market share from 3 percent to 13 percent before it eased to about 6 percent by August 2025. Higher China-based shares concentrated in developing countries and states with closer ties to China. Pricing, language coverage, and AI diplomacy show limited explanatory power, while model capability and low switching costs shape adoption. Austin Horng-En Wang and Kyle Siler-Evans, RAND, January 14
The New AI Chip Export Policy to China: Strategically Incoherent and Unenforceable. Commerce issued a January 13 rule that permits sales of advanced AI chips to China after a December 8 policy change, covering Nvidia H200 and AMD MI325X class chips. The rule raises thresholds to 13 times prior limits, caps exports at half of U.S. shipments, and presumes denial for China-owned data centers outside China. Exporters must certify U.S. supply protection, no diversion of foundry capacity, and no military, intelligence, or weapons of mass destruction end use, with know your customer controls, limits on model weight transfer, and security plans. Analysts estimate the cap could allow 1 million H200 chips, boosting AI compute installed in China in 2026 by 250 percent. Verification gaps and precedent risk support denying all AI chip exports to China. Chris McGuire, Council on Foreign Relations, January 14
How China-Related Stakeholders Engage with Members of the European Parliament. Brussels lobbying makes transparency essential on China files. AMO compiled a dataset from meeting disclosures on MEP pages, covering China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan stakeholders in the 2019 to 2024 term and the start of the 10th term through November 2024. In the 9th term, 228 MEPs recorded meetings with China-linked actors, and 75 did so in the new term. High counts for Lukas Mandl and Reinhard Bütikofer align with committee work and rapporteur roles, and may reflect disclosure habits. Many meetings involved PRC missions. Huawei and TikTok led company contacts on 5G security, cybersecurity, the AI Act, child protection, and election content. Interviews cite uneven enforcement, vague entries, hidden affiliations, and unclear assistant attendance. The paper calls for stricter standards and clearer records. Ivana Karásková, China Observers, January 14
A Tradition in Retreat. New Year’s messages became a Chinese journalism tradition in the late 1990s, giving outlets a space to state values and review the past year. In 2026, People’s Daily and Xinhua issued formulaic calls for a new journey, while The Paper used lyrical language with a coded sense of constraint in “Until the Wind Blows.” Southern Weekend drew over 100,000 WeChat shares with a message on human bonds amid technological change, economic pressure, and social division, but readers recalled its bolder past. The practice changed after the 2013 censorship of Southern Weekend’s draft “China Dream, Constitutional Dream,” which sparked a strike and protests and preceded tighter controls. Messages moved toward ornate prose, and some independent outlets switched to reporter reviews or ended the practice. Tian Jian, China Media Project, January 14
Why China’s young people are choosing to leave. China’s youth unemployment rate is about 17 percent, and job competition has intensified. Many young workers plan overseas moves for caregiving, skilled trades, or corporate postings, with destinations that include Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Africa, and South America. A recruiter at a state-owned enterprise reports hiring cutbacks, ideological sessions on rest days, and inspections of employees’ phones and social media each week. A cryptocurrency donation to Ukraine led to a self-criticism, a pay deduction, and lower promotion prospects. Online groups trade first-hand information on work visas and migration routes. Competition for postings has pushed salaries down, so the determination to leave remains strong. Li Kang, ThinkChina, January 14
Takaichi enjoys popularity amid Japan’s rightward turn. Approval ratings near 70 percent since October 2025 reflect demand for a new figure after the LDP slush fund scandal and support for a decisive public style. Takaichi presents herself in the image of Margaret Thatcher and links leadership to bold reform. A November 2025 economic package targets inflation with utility bill cuts, local grants, and child support. Conservative positions drive backing, including calls to revise Article 9 and a Diet warning that a China attack on Taiwan could trigger collective self-defense. She promotes stricter immigration control and limits on land purchases by foreign nationals. Sanseito’s gains pushed foreign policy to the center and left the LDP without a majority, complicating passage of proposed bills such as land restrictions and a National Intelligence Agency. Yu Uchiyama, East Asia Forum, January 14
Japan Poised for Early General Election. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled plans to dissolve Japan’s lower house and call an early general election, with a formal outline expected January 19, dissolution after the January 23 Diet session, and voting set for February 8 or 15. Takaichi aims to convert approval ratings near 78 percent into gains for the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP governs through a new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after Komeito left, and the bloc holds a one-seat lower house edge with help from independents. Risks include party support near 30 percent and criticism that politics will crowd out the 2026 budget and economic policy. The outcome will shape national security document revisions, defense spending, inflation policy, and Japan’s posture toward China and the United States. Kristi Govella and Yuko Nakano, CSIS, January 14
South Asia
India walks the Trump tightrope. Relations with the United States drove India’s foreign policy strain in 2025. India sought an early trade agreement after Modi’s February visit, but talks stalled on agricultural policy. Trump set reciprocal tariffs in April at 25 percent, then added 25 percent in August tied to purchases of Russian oil. Visa tightening for students and H-1B workers hit Indian professionals. Electronics and pharmaceuticals had exemptions, and India became the top exporter of iPhones to the United States, while textiles faced losses. India broadened export markets, pursued free trade agreements, and pushed domestic reforms that lifted exports by over 20 percent. A Kashmir attack led to a May India-Pakistan clash and disputes over mediation claims. India made overtures to China and Russia and faced voter roll controversy. Arun Swamy, East Asia Forum, January 14