News
The ruling-party candidate strongly opposed by China wins Taiwan’s presidential election. In Taiwan's presidential election, ruling-party candidate Lai Ching-te emerged victorious, setting the course for Taiwan's relations with China for the next four years. Lai's win, despite China's strong opposition and claims over Taiwan, was influenced by his party's stance on self-determination and resistance to China's threats. This election marks the first time a single party has led Taiwan for three consecutive terms since 1996. Lai's victory underscores Taiwan's commitment to democracy and its rejection of China's sovereignty claims. The election's outcome is critical for regional dynamics, especially with the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan's strengthening ties with the U.S. Christopher Bodeen and Simina Mistrenau, AP News, January 13
Former US officials to visit Taiwan for post-election talks. Two former senior U.S. officials, including former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and former Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, are set to visit Taiwan for post-election talks. This visit is seen as a demonstration of the U.S. government's long-standing interest in peace across the Taiwan Strait. The American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) confirmed the visit, stating that the officials will meet with various political figures and convey congratulations from the American people to Taiwan on its successful elections. The visit comes after Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te won the presidential election and signifies continued U.S. support for Taiwan's prosperity, growth, and cross-strait peace. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, January 14
Japan, U.S. congratulate Lai, vow to keep unofficial ties with Taiwan. Following the victory of Lai Ching-te in Taiwan's presidential election, both Japan and the United States have expressed congratulations, reaffirming their commitment to maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa highlighted Japan's expectation of Taiwan's continued contribution to regional peace and stability and the hope for peaceful resolution of issues surrounding Taiwan through dialogue. The U.S., represented by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, also reinforced its commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the peaceful resolution of differences. Kyodo News, January 14
India’s main opposition party begins a cross-country march ahead of a crucial national vote. India's main opposition party, Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, has launched a two-month cross-country march to regain popularity against Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling party. The march, starting from Manipur, aims to cover over 6,700 kilometers across 15 states. This initiative, named "Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra" (Unite India Justice March), follows a previous march in 2022 challenging PM Modi's government on economic inequality and religious polarization. The upcoming national election, expected in April or May, will be critical for Congress as it faces Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, which remains popular after nearly a decade in power. AP News, January 14
Kyrgyzstan: Security services raid news agency HQ. Kyrgyzstan's security services conducted a raid on the headquarters of the local news agency 24.kg, confiscating computers and mobile phones. The agency's general director, Asel Otorbayeva, and senior editors were interrogated over allegations of "propagandizing war." This action is part of a broader pattern of increasing pressure on independent media in Kyrgyzstan under President Sadyr Japarov's administration. The raid has drawn criticism from international press organizations, highlighting concerns over media freedom and the use of state power to control information and silence dissenting voices. Ayzirek Imanaliyeva, Eurasianet, January 15
North Korea fires missile, minister to visit Russia as tensions rise. North Korea launched an intermediate-range missile into the sea, as reported by South Korea and Japan, escalating regional tensions. The missile, fired from Pyongyang, traveled about 1,000 km (600 miles) eastward. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command stated that while the launch did not pose an immediate threat, it underlined the destabilizing impact of North Korea's weapons program. This launch follows North Korea's increased pressure on Seoul and its vow to enhance nuclear strike capabilities against the U.S. and its allies. The missile test and North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui's planned visit to Russia highlight the intensifying dynamics in Northeast Asia and the broader geopolitical implications of Pyongyang's actions. Ju-min Park and Makiko Yamazaki, Reuters, January 14
Việt Nam persistently follows “One China” policy: Spokeswoman. Vietnam's Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson, Phạm Thu Hằng, reaffirmed the country's adherence to the "One China" policy in response to queries about Taiwan's recent presidential election. This policy underlines Vietnam's non-governmental, people-to-people relations with Taiwan, particularly in economic, trade, and cultural sectors, while maintaining no state-level ties. Hằng emphasized Vietnam's commitment to non-interference in internal affairs and the importance of peace, stability, and cooperation in the Taiwan Strait for regional and global well-being. Vietnam News, January 15
Protecting PH territory priority in '24 – Teodoro. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. emphasized the importance of safeguarding the country's territory against external threats as a key priority for 2024. Teodoro's statement, made during the traditional New Year's call at the Camp Aguinaldo military headquarters in Quezon City, underlines the Philippines' commitment to national security in a region experiencing heightened geopolitical tensions. This directive to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) reflects the government's focus on maintaining sovereignty and territorial integrity amidst evolving regional dynamics. Francis Earl Cueto and Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, January 14
S. Korea says it hopes for continued peace, stability across Taiwan Strait after presidential election. Following the election of U.S.-friendly president Lai Ching-te in Taiwan, South Korea expressed its desire for ongoing peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. This sentiment, shared by a South Korean foreign ministry official, reflects the importance of cross-strait relations for regional peace, including the Korean Peninsula. The election's outcome has sparked discussions among political analysts about its potential impact on U.S.-China tensions. Despite different scenarios envisioned by experts, the overall consensus is the need for a stable management of the situation across the Taiwan Strait. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, January 14
Maldives leader demands removal of Indian military from the archipelago by mid-March amid spat. Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu has called for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel from the archipelago by March 15. This demand, conveyed to officials of the Indian Embassy and visiting Indian officials, follows Muizzu's recent trip to China and critical remarks about India. Muizzu aims to reduce Maldives' dependence on India by diversifying sources for education, health services, and imports. The current presence of 75 Indian military personnel in Maldives, primarily for operating aircraft and rescue operations, has become a focal point in the ongoing diplomatic row. Mohamed Sharuhan, AP News, January 15
Long Form
India-France Relations: New Avenues For Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. India and France are broadening their strategic partnership, focusing on shared geopolitical objectives in the Indo-Pacific region. This collaboration, extending beyond defense trade, is driven by the need to address the unpredictable regional security environment. A significant aspect of this partnership is the cooperation with island states, underlining a strategic emphasis on Indo-Pacific affairs. The recent request by India to purchase 26 Rafale Marine aircraft from France, valued at U.S. $6 billion, underscores the deepening of India-France relations and their joint commitment to regional security challenges. Akash Sahu, The Diplomat, January 14
Southeast Asia Likes Polarization – and That’s Not a Bad Thing. In Southeast Asia, the lack of deep political contestation is more concerning than polarization. The upcoming Indonesian elections, with over 200 million voters, offer candidates with negligible policy differences, reflecting a superficial political polarization. Similarly, Cambodia's Senate elections, dominated by the Cambodian People’s Party, lack genuine competition. These examples across the region underscore a political environment needing more meaningful engagement and diversity in political discourse. David Hutt, The Diplomat, January 13
Back on Track? In a significant move to stabilize U.S.-China relations, senior retired military officers from the U.S., including former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Curtis M. Scaparrotti and ex-director of the National Security Agency Michael S. Rogers, held a discreet meeting in Beijing with their Chinese counterparts. This meeting, organized by the Stimson Center, a Washington D.C. think tank, aimed to explore the possibility of resuming military communications between the two nations after a 16-month hiatus. The Chinese delegation, unlike in previous encounters, consisted of former commanders with substantial operational experience, indicating a serious approach to these discussions. This initiative represents a crucial step towards thawing the strained military and diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China. Bob Davis, The Wire China, January 14.
Beijing Plays A Dangerous Game With the Markets. China's video gaming industry faced a tumultuous end to the year as the government proposed new regulations aimed at curbing gaming addiction and excessive spending. These announcements initially caused a significant market shake-up, with major companies like Tencent and NetEase seeing considerable declines in their stock values. While the market reaction was dramatic, analysts suggest that the draft regulations might be less severe than perceived, aligning with global concerns over the impact of video games. This regulatory move exemplifies Beijing's continuing influence over the tech sector and its market implications. Eliot Chen, The Wire China, January 14
The Industry View of U.S. Export Controls: Moving the Goalposts. The U.S. government's evolving export control strategies, particularly on China's access to advanced chips, have generated significant confusion within the tech and manufacturing industries. This uncertainty intensified following Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's recent clarification that controls on graphics processing units (GPUs) aim to prevent China from developing cutting-edge AI models. This shift from a previous focus on military applications to AI underscores the changing dynamics of U.S.-China tech rivalry and the challenges faced by companies navigating these evolving policies. Paul Triolo, The Wire China, January 14
Beyond the State: China’s Private Medical Groups Are Going Global. Over a decade ago, healthcare reforms in China paved the way for the establishment of private medical groups, offering high-quality services at premium prices. Now, as the domestic market cools, these groups are expanding internationally, as exemplified by Dr. Zhang Qiang's recent venture into Africa. This shift marks a significant departure from the traditional safety of state-backed hospitals, reflecting the growing global aspirations of China's private healthcare sector. Such expansions are reshaping the landscape of medical services, offering personalized care and superior treatment experiences, but also highlighting the challenges of attracting patients and operational issues in an increasingly competitive global healthcare market. Li Xin, Sixth Tone, January 12
Can the United States sustain its gathering momentum in Asia? 2023 was a strong year for US foreign policy in Asia, with the Biden administration strengthening key alliances and managing regional flashpoints. The US upgraded relations with Indonesia, Vietnam, and deepened ties with India, particularly in technology and defense. Significant progress was made in managing relations with China, with diplomatic channels reopening and high-level engagements occurring. However, challenges loom in 2024, including a less favorable diplomatic calendar, potential distractions from global events, and internal US debates on international engagement. The absence of a strong US trade agenda in Asia and upcoming US elections add to the uncertainty about sustaining this momentum. Ryan Hass, East Asia Forum, January 14
External turbulence meets internal politics, demographics and geography and threatens Singapore with the slow lane. Singapore, a small island nation heavily dependent on global trade, faced a challenging year marked by external geopolitical tensions and domestic structural issues. Global conflicts, rising protectionism, and economic uncertainties impacted Singapore's economy, leading to a dismal GDP growth of around 1% in 2023. Domestically, Singapore grappled with aging population, social mobility issues, and potential threats to its strategic location as a global trade hub. Despite these challenges, Singapore's financial reserves, global connectivity, and climate change mitigation measures have so far minimized disruptions. The year also saw political scandals and a leadership transition within the ruling People's Action Party (PAP). The upcoming PAP leadership under Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and the recent presidential election victory of Tharman Shanmugaratnam signify shifts in governance. Chia Siow Yue, East Asia Forum, January 13