Asia Daily: January 13, 2025
Trial of South Korea's impeached President Yoon set to begin. Arguments are set to commence in South Korea’s Constitutional Court on Tuesday to determine the fate of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached following his attempt to impose martial law in December, causing political turmoil. The court has 180 days to decide on removing him from office or restoring his powers. Yoon faces a separate criminal investigation for alleged insurrection, with authorities seeking his arrest after he ignored summons. Yoon’s legal team stated he would not attend Tuesday's session, citing security concerns. Joyce Lee, Reuters, January 13
India’s Modi inaugurates a strategic tunnel in disputed Kashmir. Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the $932 million Z-Morh Tunnel near Sonamarg in Kashmir, ensuring year-round connectivity to Ladakh, a region often cut off by heavy snowfall. The 6.5-kilometer tunnel is part of a broader infrastructure project, including a second, 14-kilometer tunnel bypassing the Zojila pass, slated for completion by 2026. The project enhances civilian mobility and strengthens military operations in the disputed region, which has seen prolonged India-China and India-Pakistan tensions. Aijaz Hussain, AP News, January 13
Chinese military delegation to visit Japan in bid to mend strained ties. A delegation from China’s Eastern Theatre Command will visit Japan in mid-January to strengthen defence exchanges and improve Sino-Japanese relations. The delegation will meet Japanese defence leaders and visit military units, aiming to build mutual trust. This follows recent exchanges, including a visit by young Japanese officers to China and a Chinese delegation to Japan in May. Relations have been strained over Taiwan, historical disputes, and territorial claims in the East China Sea. Vanessa Cai, South China Morning Post, January 13
Russian PM arrives in Hanoi, beginning two-day official visit to Vietnam. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in Hanoi early on January 14 for his first official visit to Vietnam, focusing on enhancing ties in areas such as trade, energy, education, and defense. Accompanied by senior officials, including Deputy Prime Ministers Alexey Overchuk and Dmitry Chernyshenko, Mishustin aims to address barriers in bilateral trade and explore opportunities for cooperation in technology and infrastructure. The delegation received an official welcome at Noi Bai International Airport from Vietnamese leaders. Vietnam News, January 14
Parliamentary committee passes new special counsel bill against Yoon's martial law bid. South Korea’s opposition parties advanced a bill mandating a special counsel investigation into impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law bid. The National Assembly’s legislation committee passed the bill despite a walkout by ruling People Power Party (PPP) lawmakers. The bill expands the investigation’s scope to include allegations of treason, citing claims that Yoon attempted to provoke North Korea into military conflict. The revised bill awaits a full floor vote on Thursday. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, January 13
Japan, South Korea affirm ties' importance amid Seoul political turmoil. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae Yul emphasized strengthening bilateral relations despite uncertainty following South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment. Meeting in Seoul, the ministers pledged to maintain trilateral cooperation with the United States against North Korea’s missile and nuclear threats. They also expressed concerns about North Korea’s ties with Russia amid the war in Ukraine. Kyodo News, January 13
Japan joins U.S. and EU in sanctioning Kazakh entity. Japan has imposed sanctions on Da Group 22 LLC, a Kazakhstan-registered company accused of supplying microchips with military applications to Russia. This action aligns with measures previously taken by the United States and the European Union. Da Group 22, established in Astana in March 2022, has been involved in the wholesale distribution of electronic and telecommunication equipment. Despite these sanctions, the company continues its operations, and Kazakh authorities have not intervened, citing the absence of legal grounds for forced liquidation. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, January 13
Fierce rivalry in Thai provincial polls. Provincial Administration Organisation (PAO) elections are scheduled for February 1 in 47 provinces, with major parties Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, and the People's Party vying for dominance. These elections are seen as critical for establishing support bases ahead of the 2027 general election. Analysts predict Pheu Thai candidates will secure the majority of seats. In some regions, direct contests between Pheu Thai and the People's Party are anticipated, notably in Chiang Mai. Bhumjaithai is also actively backing candidates, despite not officially fielding them under its banner Bangkok Post, January 13
Taiwan’s spy agency says China is working with gangs, shell companies to gain intelligence on Taiwan. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau reported a surge in espionage cases linked to China, with 64 alleged spies prosecuted in 2023, up from 16 in 2021. Chinese intelligence is targeting current and retired Taiwanese military personnel, utilizing criminal gangs, shell companies, and even religious sects to channel funds and acquire sensitive information. Espionage tactics include cryptocurrency payments, cyberattacks, and traditional methods like blackmail and seduction. Christopher Bodeen, AP News, January 13
Japan, Philippines, U.S. vow to deepen cooperation in face of China's behaviour. Japan, the Philippines, and the United States committed to strengthening trilateral cooperation amid rising tensions in the South and East China Seas. Leaders Shigeru Ishiba, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and Joe Biden condemned China’s "dangerous and unlawful behavior" in disputed waters and emphasized maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific. The Philippines recently ratified a military pact with Japan, facilitating joint drills, as tensions over maritime disputes with China continue to escalate. Mikhail Flores, Karen Lema, and Andrea Shalal, Reuters, January 13
Vietjet to boost aviation infrastructure in Laos. Vietnamese airline Vietjet has signed an agreement to enhance Laos' aviation infrastructure, aiming to complete the project within six months. This initiative is part of a strategic cooperation agreement between Laos and Vietnam, focusing on transportation development through 2030. The Vietjet Aviation Institute will also provide international-standard training programs to strengthen Laos' aviation workforce, creating 2,500 new jobs and establishing a Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul center in the country. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, January 13
Japan PM urges Biden to address concerns over U.S. Steel deal. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pressed U.S. President Joe Biden to clarify the decision to block Nippon Steel Corp.’s bid to acquire United States Steel Corp., citing the importance of fostering an investment-friendly environment among allies. The comments were made during a trilateral summit with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., where the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to economic security, maritime stability, and countering coercion in the Indo-Pacific. Kyodo News, January 13
India won't reduce troops along China border in winter, army chief says. India will maintain troop levels along its northern frontier through the winter, Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi said, citing ongoing tensions with China. A decision on summer deployment will depend on progress in border negotiations. The military buildup began after the 2020 clashes in Ladakh, which left 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead. Despite an October 2024 agreement to de-escalate, both sides remain cautious. The border has been a long-standing flashpoint, with tensions periodically disrupting diplomatic ties and trade. Shivam Patel and Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Reuters, January 13
Philippines files protest over Beijing's 'escalatory actions' in South China Sea. The Philippines has lodged a formal protest against China over the presence of its coast guard, militia, and navy in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone near the Scarborough Shoal. The protest highlighted incidents on January 5 and January 10 involving Chinese vessels, including a 165-meter ship dubbed "the monster," and a navy helicopter. China defended its actions as lawful and criticized the Philippines for "malicious hype." Karen Lema, Ethan Wang, and Mikhail Flores, Reuters, January 13
Myanmar's junta expands trade with Belarus beyond weapons. Myanmar's military regime is broadening its cooperation with Belarus beyond arms deals, hosting the first Myanmar-Belarus Business Forum in Yangon. The event featured discussions on potential collaborations in agriculture, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and automobile manufacturing. Both nations plan to sign a memorandum of understanding for technology transfer. Belarus, a key arms supplier to Myanmar alongside Russia, is now exploring investments in Yangon's Thilawa Special Economic Zone. The Irrawaddy, January 13
Kazakhstan again leads Central Asia in military strength. Global Firepower's 2025 Military Strength Ranking places Kazakhstan 57th globally, up from 58th in 2024, leading the region. Uzbekistan follows at 58th, improving by seven positions. Turkmenistan rises to 77th from 83rd, Kyrgyzstan advances to 100th from 105th, and Tajikistan moves up to 107th. Kazakhstan excels in heavy weaponry, ranking 17th worldwide for multiple-launch rocket systems with 407 units, and 21st in self-propelled artillery, enhancing its defense capabilities. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, January 13
China defends Scarborough Shoal patrols after Philippine protest. China has justified its coastguard’s activities in the disputed Scarborough Shoal, asserting the actions are lawful and rejecting the Philippines’ protest over what Manila termed “illegal presence.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun urged the Philippines to stop spreading “malicious remarks.” The Philippine Coast Guard reported sightings of China’s “monster ship,” the CCG 5901, and a navy helicopter engaging in “provocative” actions near Bajo de Masinloc, also known as Scarborough Shoal. Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, January 13
Around 300 N.K. soldiers killed, 2,700 wounded during fight against Ukraine: S. Korea's spy agency. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported that at least 300 North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia in Ukraine have died, and approximately 2,700 have been injured. The casualties are attributed to inadequate combat training and a lack of understanding of modern warfare. The NIS noted North Korea’s emphasis on soldiers avoiding capture, including orders to commit suicide if necessary. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, January 13
What Is the Chinese Pension System and Why Are Its Problems Hard to Fix China's rapidly aging population is placing financial strain on its public pension system. The current structure comprises a basic pension for urban employees, a separate scheme for rural residents, and emerging private pension plans. Challenges include regional disparities in fund allocations, with wealthier provinces maintaining surpluses while poorer regions face deficits. Additionally, the system's sustainability is threatened by a shrinking workforce supporting an increasing number of retirees, exacerbated by longer life expectancies and historically low retirement ages. Recent reforms, such as raising the retirement age and promoting private pensions, aim to address these issues but encounter resistance due to cultural expectations and economic uncertainties. The difficulty of balancing economic growth, social stability, and adequate elderly support makes resolving China's pension problems particularly difficult. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Council on Foreign Relations, January 13
Singapore’s new prime minister entangled in old politics. Lawrence Wong succeeded Lee Hsien Loong as Singapore’s prime minister in May 2024, inheriting a political landscape dominated by scandals, elite infighting, and accusations of state power being used for private interests. The People’s Action Party (PAP) has faced scrutiny over issues including a high-profile corruption conviction, a libel case involving cabinet ministers, and the government’s role in Lee Hsien Loong’s family feud over his late father’s estate. Wong, seen as Lee’s protégé, has made initial efforts to assert independence, such as appointing older, non-rival deputy prime ministers, but his influence remains limited as Lee retains a senior cabinet role. Observers suggest Wong’s ability to tackle governance issues and restore trust hinges on addressing the culture of self-interest among Singapore’s ruling elite. Michael Barr, East Asia Forum, January 14
Australia’s middle power diplomacy matters. Australia exemplifies the characteristics of a middle power through its diplomatic capabilities, principled behavior, and coalition-building mindset, which enable it to address global challenges beyond the capacity of small states. Effective middle-power diplomacy relies on collaboration, intellectual creativity, and independence, as demonstrated in Australia's past successes, including the Cambodian peace settlement, the Antarctic mining prohibition treaty, and advancing nuclear disarmament. Looking ahead, Australia's potential lies in shaping regional security through the East Asia Summit, advocating free trade via mechanisms like the WTO and CPTPP, fostering détente between the US and China, advancing nuclear risk reduction, and leading global climate initiatives. By forging coalitions across diverse divides, middle powers like Australia can play transformative roles in promoting regional and global stability. Gareth Evans, East Asia Forum, January 13
China Saw Booming Exports in 2024 as Trump Tariffs Loom. In 2024, China's exports reached a record high, totaling $3.47 trillion—a 7.1% increase from the previous year—while imports rose by 2.3% to $2.5 trillion, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $970 billion. This surge provided a much needed boost to China's economy, which faced challenges from sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged property sector crisis. However, with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatening to impose even heftier tariffs upon his return to the White House, there are concerns about the sustainability of this export growth. Analysts suggest that companies may have ramped up shipments in anticipation of these tariffs, potentially leading to a temporary spike in export figures. Despite these external pressures, China's government has implemented aggressive policy measures, including interest rate cuts and subsidies, to stimulate the economy and achieve a growth target of around 5% for 2024. Nonetheless, many economists argue that further support to boost domestic consumption is essential for long-term economic health. Peter Catterall, China-Global South Project, January 13
Sustaining Sri Lanka’s Nascent Climate Finance Ambitions. In late 2023, then-President Ranil Wickremesinghe addressed COP28, emphasizing the disproportionate impact of climate change on developing nations and advocating for increased climate finance. He introduced the "Tropical Belt Initiative," aiming to attract investments for ecosystem restoration in tropical regions, and proposed debt relief for countries committing to such projects. Sri Lanka's active engagement in global climate finance discussions reflects its vulnerability to climate change and the necessity for innovative financing solutions. The recent election of President Anura Kumara Dissanayake raises questions about the continuity of these initiatives. His administration's commitment to climate finance will be crucial in sustaining and advancing Sri Lanka's efforts to address climate challenges. Anushka Wijesinha, The Diplomat, January 13
Singapore Should Intervene in the Region’s Online Scam Industry. Singapore's government has enacted the Protection From Scams Bill, empowering police to impose "restriction orders" on individuals suspected of being targeted by cyber scammers, even if they are unaware or in denial of the threat. This measure allows authorities to temporarily control potential victims' bank accounts to prevent financial losses. In the first half of 2024, Singapore reported scam losses totaling $283 million, a large increase from previous years. Despite these domestic efforts, Singapore has been criticized for not addressing the regional roots of these scams, particularly in neighboring countries where such operations are based. Critics argue that while Singapore protects its citizens at home, it should also collaborate with regional partners to dismantle the transnational networks responsible for these scams. Addressing the issue at its source could lead to more effective and comprehensive solutions to the growing problem of cyber scams in Southeast Asia. David Hutt, The Diplomat, January 13
Philippines’ Car-Centric Society: Time to Switch Lanes. Metro Manila's traffic congestion remains severe, with 2023 data indicating an average of 25.5 minutes to travel 10 kilometers—the longest among 387 global metro areas. This congestion costs the economy approximately PHP3.5 billion (US$60 million) daily, a figure projected to rise to PHP5.4 billion (US$92 million) by 2035. Despite civil society's advocacy for improved public transportation and infrastructure for active mobility, the government continues to prioritize car-centric policies and projects. Potential solutions like congestion pricing face resistance due to political concerns and the influence of the car-owning middle class. Additionally, challenges such as right-of-way issues impede the development of efficient public transport systems like railways. Addressing these challenges requires a shift in policy focus towards sustainable and inclusive transportation solutions. JC Punongbayan, Fulcrum, January 13
Arakan Army's Victory 2.0 in Myanmar: A New Order for Rakhine? On December 21, 2024, the Arakan Army (AA) captured Myanmar's Western Command in Ann Township, marking the second regional command to fall to ethnic armed organizations in 2024. This victory grants the AA control over 14 townships in Rakhine State. The AA's "Arakan Dream" envisions restoring self-determination for Rakhine, aiming to redefine administration, security, and society through wartime governance. The AA's success introduces both opportunities and challenges, hinging on their ability to secure the region, establish effective governance, and revitalize the local economy through trade with neighboring countries. Kyaw Htet Aung, Fulcrum, January 13