China
China, Russia, Iran start 'BRICS Plus' naval exercises in South African waters. China, Russia and Iran began a week of joint naval drills in South African waters under a BRICS Plus exercise, South Africa’s military said. The operation is billed as improving maritime safety, but it comes amid U.S. tensions after President Donald Trump accused BRICS of “anti-American” policies. South Africa said the drills are apolitical, and critics in the Democratic Alliance said they undermine neutrality. Tim Cocks and Sfundo Parakozov, Reuters, January 10
China set to supercharge fifth-gen J-20 stealth fighter with radar, engine and AI upgrades. China plans avionics upgrades and AI integration for the J-20, analyst Zhang Xuefeng said on CCTV. The fighter shifted from Russian AL-31 engines to WS-10C in 2021 and now uses WS-15, with AI pitched as an extra assistant for beyond-visual-range combat. China flies J-20A and two-seat J-20S variants, producing about 120 a year, and said the second pilot could direct drone swarms. Holly Chik, South China Morning Post, January 11
Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai's mitigation hearing set to begin ahead of sentencing. Hong Kong’s High Court will hear Jimmy Lai’s mitigation plea on Monday before sentencing after his December convictions. Lai, 78, was found guilty of conspiring to collude with foreign forces and publish seditious material and faces life imprisonment. The court will also hear mitigation for eight co-defendants, and his family said his health has deteriorated after more than 1,800 days in prison. Jessie Pang and James Pomfret, Reuters, January 11
Japan
Takaichi and Lee set for talks on cementing ties as China-Japan dispute simmers. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Nara on Tuesday and Wednesday for their third meeting in under three months. The talks are expected to spotlight shuttle diplomacy and the leaders’ personal rapport. The schedule includes bilateral and expanded sessions, a joint news conference, a working dinner, and a visit to Horyu-ji temple. Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times, January 11.
Government mulling creation of Japanese version of CFIUS. The government is considering a multiagency body modeled on the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment to screen foreign investment tied to national security. Officials said about 3,000 filings have arrived in recent years, but only one order or recommendation has blocked a deal. The government plans to revise the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law in the Jan. 23 Diet session to create the framework. Ryuhei Tsutsui and Haruka Suzuki, The Asahi Shimbun, January 10
South Korea
South Korea's ex-President Yoon faces potential death sentence request in trial. A Seoul court postponed prosecutors’ sentencing request in ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case until Jan. 13 after defense arguments ran past 12 hours. Prosecutors said he used the martial law declaration to suspend parliament and detain opponents. The charge carries death or life, and Yoon denied wrongdoing and said he had the authority to declare martial law. Joyce Lee, Kyu-seok Shim and Jack Kim, Reuters, January 9
Ruling party elects Rep. Han Byung-do as new floor leader. The Democratic Party elected three-term lawmaker Han Byung-do as floor leader in a runoff after four candidates split the first round. Han said he will back President Lee Jae Myung by speeding up state tasks, ending the insurrection, and reforming prosecution and the judiciary. He replaces Kim Byung-kee, who resigned amid misconduct allegations, and will serve until May. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, January 11
Lee orders prompt probe into alleged drone incursions into N. Korea. President Lee Jae Myung ordered a prompt probe into alleged drone incursions into North Korea, calling them a grave crime if confirmed. KCNA said drones launched from Ganghwa on Jan. 4 and from Paju on Sept. 27 were shot down over Kaesong. Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back denied the claim, and Lee ordered a swift military-police probe, including possible private operators. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, January 10
North Korea
North Korea's Kim Yo Jong urges South Korea to investigate drone incidents. Kim Yo Jong urged South Korea to investigate drones flown into North Korean airspace this month, saying authorities cannot evade responsibility. She welcomed Seoul’s pledge not to provoke North Korea and warned that any provocations will bring terrible situations. South Korea said it will swiftly release investigation results as President Lee Jae Myung seeks military talks and improved ties. Jihoon Lee, Reuters, January 10
Vietnam
NA Standing Committee to convene 53rd session on January 12. The National Assembly Standing Committee will hold its 53rd session on Jan. 12 for 2.5 days. The agenda includes two draft resolutions for the Supreme People’s Procuracy on uniforms, insignia and prosecutor ranks, and on disciplinary procedures for procuracy officials. The committee will also review the government’s report on voters’ aspirations and petitions and the complaints that remain unresolved. Vietnam News, January 12
Thailand
Poll leaders narrow gap. The National Institute for Development Administration (NIDA) said Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul narrowed the gap with the People Party’s Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut ahead of the Feb. 8 election. The Jan. 5-8 survey of 2,500 respondents put Natthaphong at 24.76% and Anutin at 20.84%, with 14.12% undecided. The poll put the People’s Party ahead in constituency and party-list support, and Anutin backed reviving the “Khon La Krueng Plus” co-payment scheme. Bangkok Post, January 12
People’s Party unveils ‘people’s government’ team, outlines 12 missions. The People’s Party announced a “people’s government” structure with four deputy prime minister roles and ministry teams overseen by mission-based deputies. Prime ministerial candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut named Phicharn Chaowapattanawong, Veerayuth Kanchuchat, Decharat Sukkhumnerd and Sirikanya Tansakul as deputies. Natthaphong said a Feb. 8 win would deliver 12 missions and end siloed governance and quota allocations. The Nation, January 11
Myanmar
Myanmar votes again in military's lopsided election. Myanmar held a second phase of its election on Jan. 11 after a 52% turnout in the first round. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party won 88% of lower house seats in the first phase, with major opposition absent. Spokesman Zaw Min Tun said a new government will form in April and sought international recognition, but some residents said they voted to avoid repercussions. Reuters, January 11
Low turnout, intimidation and attacks mark phase 2 of Myanmar junta’s election. The military held a second election phase in 100 townships amid low turnout, tightened security, and reports that voters felt pressured to participate. The Irrawaddy observed mostly empty polling stations in Yangon, and some business owners said they voted to avoid repercussions. Resistance attacks continued, including a drone strike that killed a junta election official, as the U.N. urged governments to reject the vote. The Irrawaddy, January 11
Cambodia
U.S. pledges $35M to bolster Cambodia’s border stability and cyber security. The United States pledged $35 million to Cambodia after talks between Prime Minister Hun Manet and Assistant Secretary Michael George DeSombre. DeSombre announced $25 million for displaced people and demining linked to border tensions with Thailand and added $10 million to fight cross-border cybercrime and online scams. Hun Manet thanked U.S. support and said Cambodia seeks a peaceful settlement under international law and existing agreements. Khmer Times, January 11
Philippines
Random inspection of govt projects pushed. Sen. Erwin Tulfo backed a Joint Congressional Oversight Committee to monitor spending under the 2026 budget. He urged random on-the-ground inspections instead of relying on reports from agency heads. He said officials can cover for subordinates and warned that public funds can be squandered without direct checks. Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, January 11
Malacañang dismisses ‘unsubstantiated’ impeachment talks vs Marcos. The Presidential Communications Office said talk of an impeachment complaint against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is unsubstantiated and amounts to political maneuvering. The response followed Rep. Edgar Erice saying a complaint could be filed when the House resumes, citing alleged flood-control scandal involvement and budget insertions. Undersecretary Claire Castro said the administration will not speculate and will stick to constitutional processes. The Manila Times, January 11
Indonesia
KPK names ex-religious affairs minister as suspect in 2024 hajj graft case. Indonesia’s KPK named former religious affairs minister Yaqut Cholil Qoumas and ex-aide Ishfah Abidal Aziz suspects in a 2024 hajj quota graft case. Investigators allege officials split an extra 20,000 Saudi-granted slots evenly between regular and special hajj, breaching a cap on special quotas and depriving at least 8,400 pilgrims. KPK put state losses at about Rp1 trillion and said asset seizures continue. Andrew Tito, Jakarta Globe, January 9
Indonesia, Turkey discuss deeper defense industry cooperation. Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin met senior Turkish military officials at the ASELSAN complex in Ankara to discuss deeper defense industry cooperation. He said Indonesia views Turkiye as a strategic partner for defense self-reliance through joint development of technology and military industry. Sjafrie toured ASELSAN facilities and said the visit should lead to more concrete projects that strengthen capabilities in a complex security environment. ANTARA News, January 10
Indonesia temporarily blocks access to Grok over sexualised images. Indonesia temporarily blocked Elon Musk’s Grok chatbot on Jan. 10 over the risk of AI-generated pornographic content, becoming the first country to deny access to the tool. Communications Minister Meutya Hafid said non-consensual sexual deepfakes violate human rights and the ministry summoned X officials for talks. xAI said it is restricting image generation and editing to paying subscribers while it fixes safeguard lapses. Fransiska Nangoy, Reuters, January 10
Taiwan
Taiwan to fortify critical facilities and ramp up ammunition output to ward off PLA pressure. Taiwan will reinforce critical infrastructure and expand counter-drone defenses to prepare for grey-zone pressure, Vice-Premier Cheng Li-chiun said. The Executive Yuan said a special police force has been stationed at key sites and agencies are strengthening joint defense and cybersecurity plans. The defense ministry will diversify ammunition supply with priority on domestic production to meet modern artillery and missile demand. Holly Chik, Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, January 10
India
India proposes forcing smartphone makers to give source code in security overhaul. India proposed 83 smartphone security standards that would require device makers to share source code with the government and notify officials before major software updates. Apple, Samsung, Google and Xiaomi, through industry group MAIT, said source code review has no global precedent and risks exposing proprietary details. IT Secretary S. Krishnan said consultations are ongoing and the government will consider legitimate industry concerns. Aditya Kalra and Munsif Vengattil, Reuters, January 11
Kazakhstan
New U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan to build “momentum” on trade, diplomacy. Julie Stufft presented her credentials as U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan to President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana. She said she wants U.S. companies to be “partners of choice” and to build on momentum from Tokayev’s Washington visit and a November summit hosted by President Donald Trump. She cited efforts to secure trade deals and U.S. access to Central Asian critical minerals. The Times of Central Asia, January 10
Kazakhstan to build new international cargo airport near China border. Kazakhstan plans a cargo and passenger airport in Zhetysu region inside the Khorgos–Eastern Gate SEZ near China. The Skyhansa joint venture, coordinated by the transport ministry, said the project will link rail, road and air to move high-value cargo and boost tourism. Stage one is due by mid-2027 with a cargo terminal and fuel complex, and the project secured 800 hectares and forecasts 700 jobs. Dauren Moldakhmetov, The Times of Central Asia, January 9
Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz official concerned over “high barriers” in U.S. visa bond policy. Kyrgyz deputy cabinet chairman Edil Baisalov said Bishkek should review its visa-free regime for U.S. citizens after Washington added Kyrgyzstan to a visa bond policy. The State Department said eligible B1/B2 applicants may have to post a $5,000-$15,000 bond at interviews starting Jan. 21. Kyrgyzstan currently allows U.S. visitors 30 days visa-free, and Baisalov called visa policy a matter of parity. The Times of Central Asia, January 9
East Asia
When Faith and Geopolitics Collide: The Dalai Lama Succession Crisis and the Global Struggle for Tibet’s Future. The Dalai Lama’s succession will shape Tibetan communities and could raise risks at Himalayan border disputes, US-China competition, and China’s push for a new regional order. Beijing treats Tibet as a core interest tied to Xi Jinping’s national rejuvenation and is tightening control over religious life, the selection of reincarnations, and surveillance in Tibet while suppressing Tibetan identity. Many governments frame Tibet as a human rights issue and avoid policy planning after Chinese warnings against “interference.” The approach of succession could trigger tension along the Line of Actual Control, economic coercion that affects water security, critical minerals, and cross-border trade, transnational repression, and internal strains in China. Henrietta Levin and Alison Bartel, CSIS, January 9
Trump’s China cacophony not music to American ears. After Donald Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea in October 2025, US and Chinese officials reopened talks on fentanyl, soybeans, Ukraine, and Taiwan, and Trump shifted from tariff threats toward engagement. Polling cited from the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group found voters viewed Trump’s China tactics as worsening tensions and rated China his weakest foreign policy issue in October 2025. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs reported that 54 percent opposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods and that support for cooperation with China rose for the first time since 2019. Many see China as a security threat, driven by concern about technology and intentions, but support for confrontation has fallen, including within Republican ranks. Ransom Miller, East Asia Forum, January 10
China’s ambitions are narrower than Washington thinks. Washington policy debates frame China as an expanding threat, but Beijing’s goals focus on domestic growth and limited sovereignty aims. The Belt and Road Initiative serves excess capacity in infrastructure sectors and builds economic leverage, not export of Chinese political models. Chinese rhetoric about a rising East and declining West describes power trends and is paired with claims that China has no plan to replace the United States. In the South China Sea, island building and coercion intensify disputes, yet the core issues remain historical claims that need diplomacy. Taiwan is treated as a reunification project rooted in identity and history, not a first step toward wider conquest. David Kang, Jackie Wong, and Zenobia Chan, East Asia Forum, January 9
The big ambitions of China’s private space industry. China’s private space sector seeks lower launch costs through reusable rockets and larger satellite production, with state support that blocks any firm from matching SpaceX’s dominance. Private launch companies such as LandSpace and Space Pioneer aim to recover first stages after test flights in December, while China’s state rocket maker tested Long March 12A. In 2025 China conducted close to 100 orbital launches, with private firms responsible for 16, and prices to low Earth orbit stayed above SpaceX’s Falcon 9. Reusability would help build megaconstellations like Guowang and Thousand Sails, yet demand for satellite internet remains uncertain inside China and abroad. Deals with Airbus, Geely satellite navigation, and smartphone satellite calls offer demand signals. A new space agency department and national fund will open state facilities and expand civil program bidding, alongside military-relevant applications. The Economist, January 11
The U.S. Venezuela Operation Will Harden China’s Security Calculation. The US attack on Venezuela signaled a turn toward power projection, tied to access to Venezuelan resources and Trump’s territorial talk about Greenland and Canada. Chinese analysts see a lesson in US willingness to use force against a weak target and press for Chinese hard power readiness. Erosion of norms matters for illiberal systems that rely on moral claims, and international acceptance of the Venezuela strike may lower Beijing’s threshold for action. China frames plans against Taiwan as law enforcement, a parallel to Washington’s justification, and watches coalition responses for clues about sanctions risk. US focus on hemispheric dominance could strain capacity in the Taiwan Strait, while Beijing weighs accommodation in Latin America against resistance tied to US concessions on Taiwan and technology. Tong Zhao, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 11
Takaichi and Taiwan: When Deterrence Looks Like Provocation. Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae warned that Chinese force against Taiwan could trigger Japan’s response, starting with evacuation and escalating to activation of the Self-Defense Forces under “survival-threatening situation” provisions. China replied with seafood curbs, flight cancellations, tourism limits, and dual-use export controls, while sending mixed signals to Japanese manufacturers. Japan’s defence white papers since 2021 have highlighted Taiwan’s stability and examined blockade scenarios, reflecting planning for a Taiwan contingency tied to US forces based in Okinawa. A crisis would risk strikes on facilities in Japan and accidental escalation, including radar lock incidents and joint China-Russia patrols. ASEAN diplomacy could reduce tensions, yet Chinese pressure on Japan raises doubts for smaller ASEAN states during a Strait contingency. William Choong and Kei Koga, FULCRUM, January 9
How North Korea’s Extractive System Adapts to External Shocks. North Korea’s political economy functions as an extractive system with a dual structure: a formal state sector with fixed wages and allocations, and informal markets that provide most household income. The regime transfers value upward through unpaid mobilization labor, forced foregone market work, money printing that fuels inflation, “patriotic” contributions, and bribe payments that substitute for wages. To gauge extraction, GDP estimates should compare production-based output with an income approach centered on informal earnings, state rents, donju lending, and bribes. Sanctions cut imports and exports, shrink agriculture and industry, and push the state to raise levies, compulsory work, and inflation, leaving households with sharp income losses. Chan Young Bang, 38 North, January 9
Southeast Asia
Implications of the Venezuela Case for Southeast Asia: Parallels and Limits. A US operation to seize Nicolás Maduro and prosecute him challenges sovereignty and signals a return of great-power spheres of influence. Beijing may treat the precedent as permission to press on Taiwan and limit foreign military presence and resource activity in the South China Sea. Limits remain because the 2025 US National Security Strategy keeps a vigilant Indo-Pacific posture and reaffirms treaty ally defence, while the Venezuela raid demonstrates US power projection capacity. The episode shows a change from democracy promotion to transactional aims tied to narcotics flows, control of oil assets, and constraint of Chinese influence. The use of domestic legal charges to justify force spotlights the US attention to scam centres in Southeast Asia, prompting sanctions, asset seizures, and FBI support. Regional governments should assess risks without forcing analogies. Hoang Thi Ha and Aries A. Arugay, FULCRUM, January 9
Vietnam faces a strategic crossroads in 2026. Vietnam’s 14th Communist Party Congress in January 2026 will choose leaders and test To Lam’s promise of a new era of development. Four Politburo resolutions set a four-pillar agenda on innovation, digital change, integration, legal reform, and a larger private sector role. Administrative reforms merged or abolished agencies, cut provinces from 63 to 34, reduced communes, and ended districts. Policy rollout ignored local identities and public consultation, while leaders backed high-speed rail, two nuclear plants, and double digit growth targets. The anti-corruption drive strengthened security forces and weakened checks. Bamboo diplomacy expanded partnerships with many states, while Hanoi sought talks on US tariffs and accepted Chinese rail loans and 5G contracts, raising dependence on both powers. Alexander L Vuving, East Asia Forum, January 10
Strategic Crossroads: Marcos Jr’s Balancing Act with the U.S. and China. As the Philippines prepares to chair ASEAN in 2026, Ferdinand Marcos Jr seeks calmer ties with China in the South China Sea while expanding defense cooperation with the United States, Australia, Japan, and other partners. Manila worries about near collisions at sea and Chinese activity around Scarborough Shoal near Subic Bay, including a plan for a 3,500 hectare nature reserve that critics see as a step toward reclamation. Marcos Jr met Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea. The four-nation “Squad” plans tighter military coordination, joint drills, and new councils, with Canada joining through a visiting forces agreement. Manila must deter pressure from China without fracturing ASEAN consensus. Richard Javad Heydarian, China US Focus, January 9
Myanmar’s Junta-Led Election Is Neither Free nor Fair. Myanmar began a three-phase election on December 28, with a round set for January 11, under military rule five years after the 2021 coup. Most opposition parties are barred, tens of thousands of political prisoners remain in jail, and freedom of speech and assembly are absent. Civil war blocks polling in over a third of townships, and many displaced people and refugees cannot vote. The junta limited the contest to six parties, disqualified forty organizations, and banned the National League for Democracy. The Union Solidarity and Development Party is set to install Min Aung Hlaing as president, while observers from nine countries and support from China add claims of legitimacy. Joshua Kurlantzick and Annabel Richter, Council on Foreign Relations, January 9