Asia Daily: February 9, 2024
News
Beijing warns of ‘heavy price’ for ‘obstructing China’s reunification’ with Taiwan as US, Japan stage military drills. Beijing has issued a stern warning against interference in its efforts to reunify with Taiwan, particularly in light of US and Japan's recent military drills, which reportedly simulated a conflict involving Taiwan. The Chinese embassy's statement underscores the heightened tensions and the complex geopolitical implications of the exercises, which for the first time named Beijing as a "hypothetical enemy." Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, February 8
North Korea leader Kim: we will wipe out enemies if they use force -KCNA. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has vowed to use the country's military might against any forceful actions by enemies, emphasizing a commitment to defend North Korea under the Workers' Party's ideology. This declaration, made during a visit to the defense ministry, underscores Kim's rejection of dialogue with South Korea, labeling it as the primary adversary. Jack Kim, Reuters, February 8
Yoon urges S. Korea, Japan firms to cooperate on labor compensation. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has called for cooperation between South Korean and Japanese firms regarding compensation for wartime labor during Japanese colonial rule. This request follows a significant legal decision by South Korea's Supreme Court, which upheld lower court rulings ordering Japanese companies to compensate South Korean plaintiffs. Yoon's appeal marks a critical step towards resolving a longstanding issue that has strained Seoul-Tokyo relations. Kyodo News, February 8
Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev nephew rendered $1.5Bln to state. Kairat Satybaldy, a nephew of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, has transferred approximately $1.5 billion, believed to be illicitly obtained, to the Kazakh state. This move marks a significant step in Kazakhstan's efforts to reclaim assets linked to corruption under Nazarbayev's regime. The funds, including cash and assets like a stake in Kazakhtelecom, are part of a broader crackdown on corruption that has intensified since political unrest in January 2022. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, February 8
China’s top legislative body to discuss ‘appointments and dismissals’ amid military purge. The National People's Congress of China is poised to review significant appointments and dismissals within its military ranks, amidst an extensive anti-corruption purge affecting senior officials. This development reflects Beijing's ongoing efforts to consolidate military loyalty and integrity, highlighting the government's focus on reinforcing control and discipline in the armed forces. The discussions indicate potential shifts in China's military and political landscape, underscoring the importance of transparency and loyalty in leadership roles. Haley Wong, South China Morning Post, February 8
Cagayan gov offers to bridge PH-China relations. Amid maritime disputes between Manila and Beijing, Cagayan Governor Manuel Mamba has proposed using his province as a conduit to foster friendship and cooperation between the Philippines and China. This offer was made during his meeting with Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Nong Rong in Fuzhou City, highlighting the ASEAN-China Year of People-to-People Exchanges event. This initiative underscores efforts to enhance diplomatic ties and mutual understanding. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, February 8
Manet, Srettha: No base for foreign 'attacks'. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin have jointly declared their territories will not be used by any group to launch attacks against other nations. This commitment was emphasized during Manet's visit to Thailand, showcasing a unified stance on non-aggression and cooperation. The leaders also discussed opening consulates and facilitating the movement of Cambodian workers, reflecting the deepening bilateral relations between the two countries. The Phnom Penh Post, February 8
Japan PM vows to provide Africa with support for food security. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has pledged support to improve food security in Africa, highlighting Japan's commitment amidst global challenges like rising wheat prices due to the Ukraine crisis. The announcement came during talks with Kenyan President William Ruto, underlining Japan's focus on aiding economic stability and growth in Africa as part of its "free and open Indo-Pacific" strategy. Kyodo News, February 8
Amnesty warns of dire state of civil society in Kyrgyzstan. Amnesty International has highlighted the declining state of civil liberties in Kyrgyzstan, pointing out the increased repression of journalists and activists through detentions and smear campaigns. These actions endanger freedom of expression and the rule of law, adversely affecting the country's human rights standing and international relations. Eurasianet, February 8
China’s Xi Jinping hails progress in integrating Hong Kong and Macau in speech ahead of Lunar New Year. President Xi Jinping praised the advancements in integrating Hong Kong and Macau with mainland China, emphasizing active support for their development as part of the country. He addressed Taiwan's situation, asserting opposition to separatist activities and foreign interference, while highlighting China's commitment to sovereignty and security. This speech reflects the ongoing efforts to solidify unity and address external challenges. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, February 8
China willing to help PH against hackers of govt websites – DICT. Beijing has expressed willingness to assist the Philippines in addressing cybersecurity breaches by China-based hackers targeting government websites. This collaborative stance was announced by the Philippine Department of Information and Communications Technology, highlighting an effort to address and mitigate cyber threats. This move signifies a notable cooperation in cybersecurity between the two nations. Catherine S. Valente, The Manila Times, February 8
Vietnamese Ambassador presents credentials to UNESCO Director-General. Ambassador Nguyễn Thị Vân Anh, representing Việt Nam at UNESCO, officially presented her credentials to Director-General Audrey Azoulay in Paris. This event underscores Việt Nam's commitment to multilateralism and its active role within UNESCO, aiming to address global challenges and promote sustainable development. Vietnam News, February 8
Long Form
Can Kazakhstan Stay the Course on Economic Reform? Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is steering the country towards significant economic reforms, aiming to reduce state dominance in the economy, enhance local production, and foster a market-driven environment. With new appointments in key economic positions, including Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and Finance Minister Madi Takiyev, Tokayev's administration is committed to implementing policies for lifting state subsidies, developing infrastructure, and introducing a more efficient Tax Code. The planned listing of Air Astana on the London Stock Exchange marks a pivotal step towards these reforms. The challenge lies in maintaining momentum and ensuring these ambitious plans translate into sustainable economic growth. Bryn Windsor, The Diplomat, February 8
Indonesia Fortifies Financial Resilience Ahead of Election. As Indonesia approaches its presidential election, the government is implementing strategic fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic stability. The 2024 election's impact on GDP components like consumption and investment, reflecting past electoral trends, necessitates careful management through policies such as ensuring State Budget availability and adopting an Automatic Adjustment process to manage uncertainties. Bank Indonesia plays a crucial role with its twist operation strategy, aiming to maintain investor interest and stabilize the Indonesian rupiah amidst potential electoral conflicts. These harmonious fiscal and monetary efforts are vital for maintaining economic stability during this pivotal period. Muhammad Rafi Bakri and Yohanes Adiwicaksana, East Asia Forum, February 9
Sri Lanka Stuck in Choppy Political and Economic Waters. Sri Lanka navigates through significant economic and political challenges as it heads into 2024. Despite a grim economic outlook with a projected GDP contraction, recent months have shown signs of recovery, including reduced inflation, currency appreciation, and increased tourism revenue. However, the country faces uncertainties with its fiscal path, emphasizing the need for revenue mobilization and sustainable economic policies. The IMF's involvement and policy measures, including tax increases and electricity tariff hikes, signal tough choices ahead. Political developments, including the Supreme Court's ruling holding the Rajapaksa brothers accountable for the financial crisis, add to the complexities as the country prepares for the presidential elections. These developments underscore the critical juncture at which Sri Lanka stands, balancing economic recovery efforts with political stability. Shyamika Jayasundara-Smits, East Asia Forum, February 9
Thailand’s Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery Still Trailing Behind. Thailand's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic lags compared to other ASEAN countries, with its GDP and GDP per capita not yet surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The economy's slow rebound is attributed to its large informal sector and reliance on tourism. Despite some growth driven by the travel sector, manufacturing and exports continue to decline. The new government's policies, including digital cash payments and debt relief, aim to stimulate the economy, but face criticism for their fiscal implications. Efforts to sign new free trade agreements (FTAs) and promote green industry projects are part of the medium to long-term recovery plan. However, the effectiveness of these FTAs in boosting trade, given the complexities of global value chains and rules of origin, remains uncertain. Addressing supply-side constraints and ensuring political stability are crucial for Thailand's economic growth and investment climate. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj, East Asia Forum, February 9