News
Guatemala's foreign ministry reaffirms ties with Taiwan amidst China trade aspirations. In a complex diplomatic balancing act, Guatemala has reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan, even as it explores trade relations with China. This stance follows Beijing's pressure on Guatemala to adhere to the one-China principle, highlighting the geopolitical intricacies of Taiwan's international relationships amid China's expanding influence in Latin America. Guatemala's stance underscores its intent to navigate these diplomatic waters carefully, seeking economic engagement with China without severing ties with Taiwan. Sofia Menchu and Valentine Hilaire, Reuters, February 7
'ICC won't get Duterte alive'. Harry Roque Jr., former spokesman for ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, has emphatically stated Duterte's refusal to be captured by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over human rights issues. This bold declaration highlights Duterte's contentious relationship with the ICC, amid ongoing investigations into alleged human rights violations during his presidency. Roque's comments reflect the deep-seated tensions and the former president's staunch stance against international judicial scrutiny. Aric John Sy Cua, The Manila Times, February 8
Taiwan axes tour group travel to mainland China, blames lack of goodwill from Beijing. Taiwan has halted plans to resume tour group travel to mainland China, attributing the decision to Beijing's lack of reciprocal goodwill. This move underscores the strained relations and concerns over the safety of Taiwanese travelers, following unilateral changes by Beijing to civil flight paths. Taiwan calls for mutual opening of group tours to foster better cross-strait interactions. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, February 7
Police in Indian-controlled Kashmir say militants fire on workers from Punjab state, killing 1. In Kashmir, militants attacked Punjab workers, resulting in one death and one injury, amid ongoing tensions since New Delhi's 2019 autonomy revocation. The violence highlights the deep-seated conflict over Kashmir's future, involving India, Pakistan, and local factions, underlining the region's disputed status and the international community's concern over escalating violence and its implications for regional stability. AP News, February 7
Philippines to boost military presence in islands facing Taiwan. In response to increasing strategic challenges, the Philippines is set to enhance its military footprint on the Batanes islands, near Taiwan. This move, aimed at strengthening Manila's territorial defense, includes troop increases and infrastructure development. The initiative underscores the geopolitical importance of the Bashi Channel, a key maritime route, and comes amid heightened military activities in the region, including joint patrols with the United States. Karen Lema, Reuters, February 7
PM Kishida says Japan-Russia ties are "difficult" amid Ukraine war. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has described Japan's relations with Russia as "difficult" in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. He emphasized the importance of resolving territorial disputes and signing a peace treaty, despite challenges. Kishida's remarks were made at an annual rally in Tokyo, advocating for the return of the Northern Territories, a group of islands controlled by Russia but claimed by Japan. Kyodo News, February 7
Ruling party chief opposes idea of S. Korea's own nuclear armament. South Korea's ruling party leader, Han Dong-hoon, expressed opposition to the country developing its own nuclear weapons, emphasizing the potential losses over benefits amid North Korea's nuclear advancements. Han highlighted the importance of adhering to international treaties and cooperation with allies, despite public support for independent nuclear capabilities. The stance reaffirms South Korea's commitment to nonproliferation and cautious approach towards North Korea's provocations. Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, February 7
Việt Nam, Morocco promote South-South cooperation for common prosperity: Ambassador. Việt Nam and Morocco are strengthening South-South cooperation, with numerous high-level exchanges and agreements in various sectors over 60 years of diplomatic ties. Ambassador Jamale Chouaibi highlights the potential for further cooperation in renewable energy, digital transformation, and other fields, emphasizing the mutual benefits of diversified trade partnerships and shared ambitions for regional economic leadership. Vietnam News, February 7
Japan firm probed over sale of ship to Iran. A Japanese company is under investigation for allegedly making a false declaration about selling a ship to the United Arab Emirates, when it was actually sold to an Iranian company. The Osaka-based firm, which specializes in acting as an intermediary in ship sales, is scrutinized for possibly violating customs law. This case highlights the complexities of international trade laws and sanctions, particularly involving Iran. Kyodo News, February 7
Thai-Cambodian relationship now a ‘strategic partnership’. Cambodia and Thailand have advanced their diplomatic relationship to a "strategic partnership" to foster closer ties and enhance trade and tourism. This move, marked by the official visit of Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet to Thailand, signifies a deepening of bilateral relations. It includes commitments to economic development, particularly in border areas, and combating transnational crimes. Samban Chandara, Phnom Penh Post, February 7
Ex-president Ma Ying-jeou accused by former aide of being indifferent to stopping Taiwan-centric culture taking root on island. Former President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan has been criticized by his ex-security chief Su Chi in a new book for neglecting to counter the rise of a Taiwan-centric culture and misconceptions about mainland China. Su argues that Ma's indifference has contributed to the deepening of Taiwan's identity separate from China, a shift that has significant implications for cross-strait relations. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, February 7
Thaksin soon 'qualified for early parole'. Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is reportedly eligible for special parole as he will have served half of his prison term by February 18, according to a Department of Corrections source. Thaksin, who returned to Thailand in August 2023 after 15 years in exile, had his eight-year jail term reduced to one year by royal clemency. His eligibility for parole underlines the ongoing legal and political narrative surrounding his case. Mongkol Bangprapa and Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, February 7
Thailand and Muslim separatist rebels agree on roadmap to peace, Malaysian facilitator says. A significant step towards peace has been taken as Thailand's government and Muslim separatist rebels, following discussions in Kuala Lumpur, outline a roadmap to end the insurgency in southern Thailand. This development promises further talks to finalize the peace plan, marked as a breakthrough after a period of stalled dialogue. The conflict, responsible for nearly 7,000 deaths since 2004, sees a glimmer of hope for resolution under new Thai leadership and facilitated by Malaysia. AP News, February 7
Long Form
Myanmar’s Conflict Takes Its Toll on Popular Coastal Resort Town. Ngapali Beach, once a bustling tourist destination in Myanmar, now faces desolation due to the ongoing conflict in the country. The military coup and subsequent civil unrest have severely impacted the local economy, particularly tourism and fishing, which are the mainstays of Ngapali's livelihood. Hotels stand empty, and fishermen are unable to work due to a military-imposed embargo aimed at preventing arms shipments to the Arakan Army. The blockade has led to a sharp increase in food prices and a scarcity of fuel, pushing many locals to rely on food donations. The once-peaceful and prosperous resort town is now a stark representation of the broader crisis affecting Myanmar, leaving residents uncertain about their future. Jan Olson, The Diplomat, February 8
The China-US Tech War Comes to the Cloud. The tech conflict between the United States and China has extended into cloud computing, crucial for AI development. The U.S. Department of Commerce proposes regulations for cloud service providers like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud to monitor and report usage by developers in countries not allied with the U.S., indirectly targeting China. These measures aim to prevent China from leveraging U.S. cloud infrastructure for AI advancements, reflecting the broader tech rivalry's shift towards cloud services. Megha Shrivastava, The Diplomat, February 8
Dynastic Politics Are Putting Indonesia's Democratic Achievements at Risk. As Indonesia approaches a pivotal election, President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's legacy is scrutinized for potentially undermining the nation's democracy through dynastic politics and failing to combat corruption effectively. Despite his popularity, Jokowi's interventions in political party leadership and efforts to establish a family dynasty, including maneuvers to position his sons in significant political roles, have raised concerns. These actions, coupled with a weakening Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and Jokowi's increasing involvement in election campaigns, signal a troubling trend towards political dynasties that could stifle Indonesia's democratic progress and economic development. Observers warn that without a course correction, Indonesia risks emulating the Philippines' experience with dynastic corruption and patronage politics, underscoring the need for voter awareness and a commitment to democratic principles. Ella S. Prihatini, Nikkei Asia, February 8
A Bumpy Road Ahead for China’s Economy. China's economy experienced a mixed performance in 2023, with notable growth in the high-tech and services sectors but challenges in the property market, debt risk, and consumer sentiment. Despite a strong start, fluctuations in GDP growth highlighted the economy's uneven recovery post-COVID-19. The government's support for high-tech industries and the services sector's expansion were bright spots, contributing significantly to economic growth. However, the property sector's contraction, local government debt issues, and weak consumption growth pose significant risks. Efforts to stabilize the property market and restructure local government debt indicate Beijing's proactive approach to managing these challenges. Yet, structural issues like a low household consumption-to-GDP ratio and an inadequate social security network underline the need for long-term reforms. The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2023 emphasized innovation, sustainability, and stabilizing expectations, signaling a strategic shift towards addressing household confidence and structural challenges. Jiao Wang, East Asia Forum, February 8
Behind the Scenes of Taiwan’s Presidential Election. Taiwan's 2023 presidential election, marked by political drama and overshadowed critical issues like economic challenges and energy shortages, led to Vice President Lai Ching-te's nomination by the Democratic Progressive Party and New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih by the Kuomintang. Amidst controversies and a fragmented electorate, Lai's victory highlighted Taiwan's political divisions and the public's economic concerns. The election underscored the need for addressing energy shortages and balancing relations between China and the United States, emphasizing the importance of strategic leadership for Taiwan's future. Wen-Chi Yang, East Asia Forum