Asia Daily: February 7, 2025
Trump signs order delaying tariffs on de minimis imports from China. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order postponing tariffs on low-value Chinese shipments until the Commerce Department ensures systems are in place to process and collect revenue. The move follows backlash over the removal of the de minimis exemption, which previously allowed duty-free imports under $800. The shift comes as Trump signals a potential trade deal with Beijing, while Shein and Temu face new U.S. duties. Robert Delaney & Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, February 8
Philippine vice president preparing for impeachment battle but silent on option to resign. Vice President Sara Duterte said her legal team is preparing for her Senate trial but did not confirm whether she might resign to avoid a conviction, which could bar her from running for president in 2028. She again denied allegations of plotting to assassinate President Marcos and misusing office funds. Duterte’s impeachment trial is set for June. Jim Gomez, AP News, February 7
Ishiba, Trump vow to pursue ‘new golden age’ of Japan-U.S. ties. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and U.S. President Donald Trump pledged to deepen economic and security ties during their first in-person meeting. Trump emphasized trade balance concerns and reaffirmed opposition to Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Both leaders agreed to expand cooperation in defense, AI, energy, and space. Ishiba sought reassurances on U.S. commitments in the Indo-Pacific amid concerns over Trump’s foreign policy shifts. Kyodo News, February 7
No security deal with China, assures Cook Islands PM Brown. Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown dismissed concerns about security ties with China, stating that the upcoming Joint Action Plan with Beijing focuses solely on infrastructure, trade, and development. Brown reassured New Zealand officials that no defense arrangements are included, following criticism over transparency. Opposition leader Tina Browne urged full disclosure, warning of potential economic dependence on China. Brown will visit China from Feb. 10-14 to formalize the agreement. PINA, February 7
Bangladesh asks India to stop ousted PM Hasina making ‘false statements.’ Bangladesh’s foreign ministry asked India to prevent former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina from making “fabricated” remarks after she accused the interim government of seizing power unconstitutionally. India summoned Bangladesh’s envoy, stating Hasina’s comments were personal and not India’s stance. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus urged calm, warning further unrest could harm Bangladesh’s global image. Sudipto Ganguly and Sakshi Dayal, Reuters, February 7
No pressure on Senate to fast-track VP impeachment. House Speaker Martin Romualdez stated that the House of Representatives is not pressuring the Senate to expedite Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial. Romualdez emphasized that it is up to the Senate, acting as an impeachment court, to decide the trial’s schedule. Duterte has denied allegations that she threatened President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and other officials. Senate President Francis Escudero indicated the trial may begin after the May 12 elections. Joey Gabieta, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 7
China lashes out at U.S. ‘coercion’ after Panama declines to renew infrastructure agreement. China criticized the U.S. after Panama withdrew from the Belt and Road Initiative, rejecting Washington’s warnings about Chinese influence over the Panama Canal. The decision followed U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s demand that Panama limit China’s role or risk repercussions. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian condemned the U.S. for using “pressure and coercion” to undermine Beijing’s global infrastructure program. AP News, February 7
Trump is open to N. Korea engagement, but it ‘takes two to tango’: senior U.S. official. A senior U.S. official stated that President Donald Trump is open to reengaging with North Korea but emphasized that Pyongyang must also make efforts for dialogue. The official reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to North Korea’s “complete denuclearization” and pledged to remain aligned with Japan and South Korea. Trump recently called Kim Jong-un a “smart guy” and hinted at reviving personal diplomacy. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, February 7
Vietnamese, U.S. defence chiefs hold phone talks. Vietnamese Defence Minister Phan Van Giang and U.S. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth discussed bilateral military cooperation, post-war recovery efforts, and strategic partnerships in a phone call on Feb. 7. Giang praised U.S. support in dioxin remediation, bomb clearance, and repatriation efforts. He invited Hegseth to visit Vietnam and proposed holding the 13th Vietnam-U.S. Defence Policy Dialogue this year. Hegseth reaffirmed the Trump administration’s commitment to strengthening defence ties. Vietnam News, February 7
Trump’s foreign aid freeze disrupts USAID projects in Laos. The Trump administration’s decision to temporarily halt U.S. foreign assistance has led to the suspension of all USAID projects in Laos, impacting programs in health, environmental protection, and sustainable development. USAID employees in Laos have been placed on administrative leave, and ongoing initiatives, including a handicraft sector project, have been abruptly paused. The freeze is part of a broader review of U.S. foreign aid. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, February 7
Singapore grants house arrest to jailed former minister S. Iswaran. Former Transport Minister S. Iswaran, sentenced to one year for obstructing justice and accepting over $300,000 in gifts, will serve his remaining eight months under house arrest. The Singapore Prisons Service cited his low reoffending risk, good prison conduct, and strong family support. Iswaran, the first former cabinet minister jailed in Singapore, must adhere to curfew monitoring, counseling, and electronic tagging. Bing Hong Lok, Reuters, February 7
Maritime rivals China and Brunei vow to work together on oil and gas in disputed waters. China and Brunei agreed to collaborate on oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea, despite overlapping territorial claims. The joint statement followed a meeting between President Xi Jinping and Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, emphasizing cooperation in "mutually agreed areas" under international law. Analysts view the move as largely symbolic, as previous agreements have seen little progress. Brunei has maintained a neutral stance in regional maritime disputes. Laura Zhou, South China Morning Post, February 7
Bangladesh’s government warns of stern action after house where independence was declared is razed. Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, vowed to crack down on vandalism following the destruction of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s historic residence. The attack, linked to unrest against ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, has sparked political tensions and concerns from India. Over 70 incidents of violence have been reported, with Hasina’s party blaming hard-line Islamists. Julhas Alam, AP News, February 7
CDP seeks major budget revisions to redirect funds to its programs. Japan’s Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) proposed cutting 7.78 trillion yen ($51.3 billion) from the 2025 fiscal budget by reallocating underutilized government funds. The CDP aims to fund free school lunches, tuition-free high schools, and expanded elderly care wages. The proposal also seeks to halve the 1 trillion yen reserve fund, which has been criticized for funding policy initiatives rather than emergencies. Takahiro Okubo, The Asahi Shimbun, February 7
Japan, U.S., S. Korea eye 1st foreign ministerial meeting under Trump. Japan, the U.S., and South Korea are planning a trilateral foreign ministers' meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference from Feb. 14, marking their first such talks since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will discuss North Korean threats, deepening Russia-North Korea ties, and China’s assertiveness with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul. Kyodo News, February 7
Chevron accelerates Kazakh oilfield ramp-up, sources say. Chevron is expediting its $48 billion expansion of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, aiming to reach full capacity of 260,000 barrels per day by June. A source said the ramp-up may be completed by late February, four months ahead of schedule. Tengiz’s output has already increased to 900,000 barrels per day, complicating Kazakhstan’s efforts to comply with OPEC+ quotas. The field’s oil is exported via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Reuters, February 7
USAID funding freeze boosts Myanmar junta and China: HRW. Human Rights Watch warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s freeze on USAID operations in Myanmar has blocked over $39 million in funding for human rights, democracy, and independent media programs. The cuts have forced layoffs, halted projects, and worsened humanitarian conditions in border displacement camps. HRW said the move benefits Myanmar’s military junta and strengthens Chinese-backed media influence. The Irrawaddy, February 7
Indonesia orders the halting of tourism projects linked to Trump over environmental issues. Indonesian authorities halted a $3 billion tourism project affiliated with U.S. President Donald Trump due to environmental concerns. The development, led by Indonesian tycoon Hary Tanoesoedibjo’s MNC Land, was granted special economic zone status in 2023 but faced backlash for damaging the Lido Lake ecosystem. Conservationists warn the project threatens endangered species in Gunung Gede Pangrango National Park. Niniek Karmini, AP News, February 7
Indonesian minister turns off the lights in government quest to cut $19 billion. Indonesia’s Economic Affairs Ministry reduced lighting in its offices as part of drastic budget cuts ordered by President Prabowo Subianto. Ministries face spending reductions of up to 80% to fund Prabowo’s $28 billion free school meals program. Critics warn the cuts, which affect infrastructure, travel, and services, could harm economic growth. The hospitality sector expects losses as government events are scaled back. Stefanno Sulaiman & Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, February 7
Chinese Vice-Premier Zhang Guoqing to attend Paris AI summit as DeepSeek stuns world. China is sending Vice-Premier Zhang Guoqing to the AI Action Summit in Paris as DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, disrupts the global tech race. The summit will include delegates from 80 countries, with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance also expected to attend. DeepSeek’s chatbot has rivaled OpenAI’s ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost, triggering security concerns in Washington. Some nations, including South Korea and Italy, have restricted its use. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, February 7
China’s Xi ‘seriously’ mulling visit to S. Korea for APEC summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping is considering attending the APEC summit in Gyeongju later this year, marking his first visit to South Korea since 2014. Xi discussed the possibility during a meeting with National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik in Harbin, emphasizing stability in China-South Korea relations. Woo urged greater cooperation on trade and technology. Xi also commented on South Korea’s political situation, expressing confidence in its ability to resolve ongoing turmoil. Kim Na-young, Yonhap News Agency, February 7
The Myth of Human Wave Attacks Obscures What North Korea Is Learning in Ukraine. North Korean troops deployed to support Russia in Ukraine are adapting to modern warfare, countering the stereotype of employing unsophisticated "human wave" tactics. Initially unprepared for Ukrainian drone assaults, these units have adjusted by operating in smaller, more agile formations to reduce visibility. Handwritten notes from a fallen North Korean soldier indicate a focused study on contemporary combat methods, particularly drone operations. Dismissing these troops as mere "cannon fodder" overlooks their capacity for learning and adaptation, potentially leading to strategic miscalculations by Western analysts. Benjamin R. Young, RAND Corporation, February 6
Is the Polar Silk Road a Highway or Is It at an Impasse? China's Arctic Policy Seven Years On. Seven years after declaring itself a "Near-Arctic State," China has made mixed progress in the Arctic. It has advanced scientific research, established the Yellow River Research Station in Norway's Svalbard Archipelago, and invested in Russian natural gas projects. The 2018 Arctic policy integrated the region into China's Belt and Road Initiative through the Polar Silk Road concept, emphasizing "respect, cooperation, win-win result, and sustainability." China has also increased collaboration with Russia, utilizing the Northern Sea Route for shipping natural gas and conducting joint naval patrols near Alaska. However, China's activities remain limited in scope and intensity, with several ventures in natural resource extraction and infrastructure facing challenges due to profitability concerns or pushback from Arctic states. Despite these limitations, China's economic, scientific, and information activities in the Arctic could present security risks to Arctic countries and offer intelligence collection opportunities. The United States and its allies need to monitor China's activities closely, address areas of concern, and maintain a regional governance system that China might seek to influence in the future. Stephanie Pezard and Abbie Tingstad, RAND Corporation, February 6
Waiting with Bated Breath for Bangsamoro’s Elections. The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) faces uncertainty as legislators propose postponing its first regular elections. BARMM was created through the 2018 Bangsamoro Organic Law to address historical injustices, building on the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). However, the Philippine Senate has already ratified a delay to October 2025, while the House of Representatives proposes an extension to 2026. The Bangsamoro Parliament has also requested a further delay until 2028. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. certified the postponement as urgent, citing unresolved issues such as the status of the Special Geographic Area and Sulu’s exclusion from BARMM. The delay risks voter disenfranchisement, disrupts election preparations, and exacerbates security threats, with political rivalries and armed conflict already a concern. Meanwhile, political groups, including MILF’s United Bangsamoro Justice Party, could benefit from the extended transition period, while local elites consolidate power. Despite practical concerns, repeated postponements could undermine BARMM’s legitimacy, eroding trust in the democratic process and alienating constituents. The people of BARMM deserve an electoral process that is transparent, inclusive, and timely, reflecting their aspirations rather than political maneuvering. Reemar B. Alonsagay, East Asia Forum, February 8
The Hidden Cost of Mongolia's Mining Boom. Mongolia’s mining sector, contributing 28.7% of GDP and 92.1% of exports in 2023, drives economic growth but exacerbates environmental degradation, water depletion, and the displacement of nomadic herders. Large mines in the South Gobi consume 78.3% of regional water, with demand projected to rise by 2040. Local-Level Agreements (LLAs) aim to mediate conflicts between mining companies and herders, but weak enforcement and lack of genuine community involvement limit their effectiveness. Meanwhile, agriculture’s share of GDP has declined from 27.4% in 2000 to 9.8%. While Mongolia has implemented environmental regulations, enforcement remains weak. Sustainable economic diversification, particularly through cashmere and meat production, alongside stricter mining regulations and better infrastructure, is essential to balancing growth with ecological preservation. Narantuya Chuluunbat, East Asia Forum, February 7
New Alliance Dynamics in and Around Korea. Recent developments indicate a strengthening alliance between Russia and North Korea, formalized through a mutual defense treaty. This partnership has led to increased military cooperation, including the deployment of approximately 10,000 North Korean soldiers to support Russian forces in Ukraine. While China has traditionally been a key ally to both nations, this deepening Russo-North Korean relationship may reduce Beijing's leverage over Pyongyang, potentially causing unease in Beijing. The dynamics among these three countries could lead to more unilateral and escalatory actions by Russia and North Korea in Ukraine and against South Korea, thereby increasing regional and global security risks. Analysts suggest that China's influence over its partners is diminishing as Russia and North Korea expand their strategic collaboration. Stephen J. Blank, 38 North, February 7
Cambodia: A Test for China's 'BRI 2.0' Vision. Between 2000 and 2021, China provided Cambodia with $17.7 billion in loans, grants, and donations, greatly impacting the nation's development. However, this influx of capital has led to challenges, including environmental degradation, social displacement, and economic dependency. Projects like the Dara Sakor development have faced criticism over land seizures and potential military uses, raising concerns about the long-term implications of such investments. These issues show the need for China to address the unintended consequences of its overseas investments to maintain credibility and ensure sustainable development in partner countries. Chhay Lim and Genevieve Donnellon-May, The Diplomat, February 7
The Impact and Complexity of Saudi Funding on the Dissemination of Wahhabism and Salafism in Indonesia. Saudi Arabia has invested between US$70 and US$100 billion globally to promote Wahhabism and Salafism, including in Indonesia. This funding has supported the construction of mosques, Islamic centers, and educational institutions, as well as the provision of scholarships and religious literature. While these efforts have successfully disseminated Salafi teachings, they have also led to controversies, such as the promotion of an uncompromising form of Islam that often clashes with local traditions and accusations of funding extremist activities. The motives behind Saudi funding are complex, encompassing ideological, geopolitical, and domestic political considerations. Recent reforms under Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman towards a more moderate form of Islam present both challenges and opportunities for Indonesia, necessitating vigilance in monitoring foreign influence while exploring avenues for increased investment and trade relations. A'an Suryana, FULCRUM, February 7
Indonesia's New National Mosque: Big Shoes to Fill. Indonesia is constructing a new national mosque in its future capital, Nusantara, East Kalimantan, aiming to replace Jakarta's Istiqlal Mosque. Spanning 32,000 square meters with a capacity for 60,000 worshippers, the project is funded by the state budget at a cost of 940 billion rupiah (US$590 million) and is expected to be completed before Idul Fitri in late March 2025. Istiqlal Mosque, completed in 1978, has been a symbol of religious tolerance, designed by a Christian architect under President Sukarno's directive, and strategically located near Jakarta Cathedral to demonstrate interfaith harmony. The new mosque's stakeholders, including its Grand Imam and management, must work diligently to match Istiqlal's stature by promoting inclusivity and engaging in interfaith dialogues. The involvement of state leaders, particularly President Prabowo Subianto, in utilizing the mosque for positive religious and social causes will be crucial in establishing its significance. The Grand Imam should possess an inclusive outlook to gain acceptance from diverse religious communities, making sure the new mosque lives up to its role as a national religious icon. A'an Suryana, FULCRUM, February 7