Asia Daily: February 6, 2025
Philippine vice president’s impeachment trial will start after Congress reopens in June. The Philippine Senate will begin Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial when Congress reconvenes on June 2. The House impeached Duterte on charges including plotting to assassinate President Marcos, large-scale corruption, and failing to oppose China’s aggression in the South China Sea. Senate President Francis Escudero rejected calls for an early trial, citing legal constraints. Duterte’s brother, Rep. Paolo Duterte, condemned the move as political persecution. Jim Gomez, AP News, February 6
Ex-commander confirms Yoon ordered removal of lawmakers, not agents, from Nat'l Assembly. Lt. Gen. Kwak Jong-keun testified at President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment trial that Yoon directly ordered the removal of lawmakers from the National Assembly during his martial law declaration. Yoon denied the claim, accusing Kwak of conspiring against him. Other military officials confirmed troops were deployed to secure the parliament building. The impeachment case centers on Yoon’s alleged abuse of power and attempts to suppress opposition. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, February 6
Japan PM Ishiba arrives in Washington for 1st summit with Trump. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrived in Washington for his first summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, aiming to reaffirm the strength of their alliance. Talks will focus on Indo-Pacific security, Taiwan Strait stability, and Japan’s increasing defense spending. Ishiba is expected to pledge more U.S. LNG imports and discuss AI and semiconductor cooperation. The leaders will issue a joint statement affirming U.S. defense commitments, including the Senkaku Islands. Keita Nakamura, Kyodo News, February 6
Kazakhstan: Village-to-city migration reaches record high in 2024. Kazakhstan’s rural population declined by 111,000 in 2024, the highest figure since records began in 2000, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Despite a natural rural population increase of 98,000, urbanization surged, with cities gaining 267,000 people. Only Almaty and Atyrau saw slight rural growth. The government is improving migration tracking through Big Data and Smart Data Ukimet, but demographic details remain limited. Eurasianet, February 6
Bangladesh protesters torch ousted PM Sheikh Hasina's father's home. Thousands of protesters set fire to the historic home of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founding leader and father of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Demonstrators, angered by Hasina’s call to resist the interim government, also attempted to demolish the building. The residence, where Mujibur Rahman declared independence in 1971, was previously converted into a museum. YP Rajesh, Reuters, February 6
A flurry of international naval drills around the Philippines prompts complaints from Beijing. The U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines conducted joint naval drills in the South China Sea, prompting criticism from China, which accused Manila of colluding with foreign forces. The exercises, aimed at strengthening defense coordination, will expand to include France later in the week. China’s military conducted its own patrols in response, denouncing the drills as a threat to regional stability. Christopher Bodeen, AP News, February 6
Conference makes final preparations for NA’s 9th extraordinary session. Vietnam’s National Assembly (NA) and Government Party Committees met in Hanoi on February 6 to finalize preparations for the NA’s 9th extraordinary session, set for Feb. 12. Lawmakers will review four draft laws, five resolutions, and urgent proposals, including restructuring the government apparatus, investing in expressways, and advancing nuclear energy projects. Vietnam News, February 6
Junta officials added Brazil, Arctic to usual diplomatic destinations in January. Myanmar’s military leaders visited eight countries in January, maintaining ties with China, Russia, and Belarus while seeking BRICS membership through a visit to Brazil. Officials also traveled to Thailand and Laos for joint crackdowns on telecom fraud and human trafficking. A junta minister attended Arctic rescue drills in Russia, despite Myanmar’s lack of icy terrain. The regime continues efforts to gain international recognition for its planned elections. The Irrawaddy, February 6
Kyrgyzstan raises first sovereign bond to mitigate China’s growing influence. Kyrgyzstan plans to issue $1.7 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, its first global bond sale, to diversify financing and reduce reliance on Chinese loans. China currently holds 36.7% of Kyrgyzstan’s foreign debt, and Beijing’s investments in railways and urban infrastructure continue expanding. The government hopes the bond sale will ease financial pressures while balancing relations with China. Joe Luc Barnes, The Times of Central Asia, February 6
Kyrgyzstan facilitates group travel tourism from China. Kyrgyzstan and China signed a memorandum on February 4 to promote organized group travel, aiming to boost Kyrgyzstan’s tourism industry. The agreement, finalized during President Sadyr Japarov’s state visit to Beijing, follows a 56% rise in Chinese visitors to Kyrgyzstan in 2024. The country also introduced a visa-free regime for Chinese tour groups, allowing 21-day stays. Kyrgyzstan welcomed over 10.5 million tourists in 2024, with China among its top markets. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, February 6
Beijing denounces Taiwanese leader William Lai as ‘destroyer of cross-strait peace.’ China’s Taiwan Affairs Office accused Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te of deliberately escalating tensions by reaffirming that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to one another. Beijing condemned Lai’s remarks at a Lunar New Year event and warned against any move toward independence. Lai reiterated his commitment to sovereignty and called for dialogue. Beijing has intensified diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan since his election. Xinlu Liang, South China Morning Post, February 6
Top state inspector calls for tough action amid mounting corruption. Laos’ State Inspection Authority reported financial losses of over 662 billion kip in 2024 due to corruption, implicating 208 individuals, including two foreigners. Authorities have prosecuted 40 people and detained 39, while 168 received administrative penalties. President Khamphan Phommathat called for stricter oversight of state resources, highlighting unresolved compensation issues for families displaced by the Laos-China railway. Investigations also targeted state enterprises, mining firms, and duty-free fuel imports. Vientiane Times, February 7
Pheu Thai calls for ruling on referendum. Pheu Thai Party deputy leader Chousak Sirinil proposed that the government, opposition, and Senate whips jointly seek a Constitutional Court ruling on how many referendums are required for a charter rewrite. The proposal comes ahead of the first reading of multiple amendment bills on Feb. 13-14. While most bills propose section-by-section changes, two seek a full rewrite. The 2021 Constitutional Court ruling mandates a referendum but does not specify how many rounds are needed. Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, February 6
Xi calls for China, Thailand to beef up ties to fight global uncertainties. Chinese President Xi Jinping urged deeper cooperation with Thailand to counter global instability, highlighting trade, high-speed rail, and digital economy initiatives. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, on her first official visit to China, emphasized crime prevention after a Chinese actor was abducted in Thailand by Myanmar-based scam gangs. Both nations pledged closer law enforcement collaboration. Shi Bu, Ethan Wang, Ryan Woo and Chayut Setboonsarng, Reuters, February 6
Panama formally exits China’s Belt and Road Initiative as U.S. claims victory in decision. Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino announced the country’s withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, instructing diplomats to submit a 90-day notice of termination. The move follows U.S. pressure, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio praising it as a strategic win. China’s ambassador to Panama, Xu Xueyuan, dismissed U.S. claims of Chinese influence over the Panama Canal, calling Washington’s rhetoric baseless. Igor Patrick and Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, February 7
Philippines' Marcos says vice president's impeachment not a matter for executive branch. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. distanced himself from Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment, stating it is solely a congressional matter. The House of Representatives impeached Duterte with 215 votes, sending the case to the Senate, which cannot act until June 2 due to midterm elections. Duterte, accused of graft and high crimes, denied wrongdoing. Senate President Francis Escudero confirmed legal constraints delay the trial. Mikhail Flores and Karen Lema, Reuters, February 6
Parliamentary committee issues order to bring ex-defense chief as witness for martial law hearing. South Korea’s opposition-led parliamentary committee ordered former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and three ex-military officials to testify about President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration. The officials, accused of helping Yoon deploy troops to seal off the National Assembly on Dec. 3, failed to appear at previous hearings. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, February 6
China, Pakistan pledge to boost cooperation on infrastructure, mining projects. China and Pakistan agreed to upgrade Pakistan’s railway network, further develop Gwadar Port, and allow Chinese firms to invest in offshore oil and gas projects. The $65 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor remains a key part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, visiting China from February 4-8, emphasized the need for stronger economic ties. Farah Master, Reuters, February 6
Iwaya: Trump’s plan won’t alter Japan’s ‘two-state solution’ policy. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya reaffirmed Japan’s support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, dismissing U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for a U.S. takeover of Gaza. Speaking in parliament, Iwaya said Japan remains committed to Palestinian statehood but declined to comment on Trump’s plan. His remarks mark Japan’s first official response since Trump’s statement drew global criticism. Shinichi Fujiwara, The Asahi Shimbun, February 6
Cook Islands drops passport bid, forges ahead with China talks. The Cook Islands government abandoned plans for a national passport following criticism from New Zealand’s Foreign Ministry, which warned it could undermine Cook Islanders’ New Zealand citizenship. Prime Minister Mark Brown will visit China from February 10-14, where a new partnership agreement is expected. Opposition leader Tina Browne called for transparency, cautioning against compromising national sovereignty. Aui'a Vaimaila Leatinu'u, Pacific Media Network, February 7
Understanding Chinese Industrial Zone Practices from a Local Perspective.
China’s overseas industrial parks, developed under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have become key platforms for economic cooperation, with over 123 parks established globally by 2018. These parks facilitate outbound Chinese investment while supporting industrial development in host nations. A two-year study of the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone (SETCZone) in Egypt reveals mixed results. While the zone aligns with Egypt’s industrial base, it lacks sufficient policies to integrate local industries, limiting backward linkages and opportunities for industrial upgrading. Chinese firms dominate investments, with minimal participation from domestic suppliers. The absence of strong local governance and policy space restricts Egypt’s ability to shape development strategies, reinforcing power imbalances. Safa Joudeh, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 6
The Relationship Between Chinese Debt and China’s Trade Surplus. China’s total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit, reached 408.3 trillion RMB at the end of 2024, an 8.3 percent increase from 2023 and pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 303 percent. Debt-fueled investment continues to drive GDP growth, but much of this investment—particularly in property and infrastructure—has been unproductive, leading to one of the fastest-rising debt burdens in global history. With the collapse of the housing sector, Beijing redirected investment to manufacturing, yet this has not improved overall efficiency. Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus hit a record $992 billion in 2024, contributing 30.3 percent to GDP growth. The government’s rigid GDP targets mean that if consumption and trade surplus growth slow, the shortfall must be met with further debt-driven investment, exacerbating the financial burden. If global trade tensions constrain China’s surplus, debt will need to rise even faster, intensifying pressure for economic restructuring. Michael Pettis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 6
A Divided Taiwan Faces Cross-Strait Pressures. Lai Ching-te’s victory in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election secured the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) an unprecedented third term, but with only 40.05 percent of the vote and a legislative minority. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) formed a coalition, reducing the 2025 government budget by $6.34 billion and intensifying political gridlock. Meanwhile, TPP leader Ko Wen-je faces corruption charges, threatening the party’s future. Lai, advocating for Taiwanese independence, faces growing military pressure from Beijing, which rejects his refusal to acknowledge the "one China" principle. Complicating matters, Donald Trump’s return to the White House introduces uncertainty in U.S. support, as his transactional foreign policy could change Washington’s stance on Taiwan. T.Y. Wang, East Asia Forum, February 6
Weathering the Economic Storms of the ASEAN Climate. ASEAN, home to one of the world's fastest-growing economies, faces mounting climate-related challenges, with storms threatening infrastructure and supply chains. While the European Union leads in coordinated climate action, ASEAN’s loosely structured approach hinders resilience-building efforts. The region’s economic growth, driven by export-oriented manufacturing, is at risk due to extreme weather events like Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 and Typhoon Yagi in 2024, which caused supply chain disruptions. Small and medium-sized enterprises, making up 98 percent of businesses and employing two-thirds of the workforce, are particularly vulnerable. ASEAN must move beyond dialogue toward tangible climate adaptation, including resilient infrastructure and financial support for small businesses. External partners like the United States and Australia are promoting minilateral initiatives, encouraging regional collaboration on climate mitigation. Strengthening ASEAN’s collective response is crucial to maintaining its economic trajectory. Sandra Seno-Alday, East Asia Forum, February 7
Shifting Gears: China's Advanced EV Hegemony in Central Asia. China's EV sales surged in 2024, with Central Asia emerging as a key market due to tax breaks and local production incentives. Kazakhstan saw a 36-fold increase in Chinese EV sales, while Uzbekistan launched its first Chinese EV factory. Beijing’s push for EV infrastructure strengthens its economic and geopolitical influence in the region. Despite challenges like corruption, Chinese automakers, led by BYD, dominate the market, deepening Central Asia’s dependency on Chinese investments. Aigerim Turgunbaeva, The Diplomat, February 6
The Rise of DeepSeek: China’s Answer to Silicon Valley’s AI Dominance. DeepSeek, a Chinese tech pioneer, is disrupting global AI markets with open-source models priced 7 percent below Western counterparts, showing China’s ascent through cost-innovation synergies. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the rise of DeepSeek “should be a wake-up call for America’s tech companies.” Dingding Chen, Vivian Toh, and Yue Wu, The Diplomat, February 7.
Navigating Trump 2.0 Tariffs: Keep Calm and Carry On. President Trump’s second term has reignited global trade tensions, with tariffs on China remaining in place while Canada and Mexico negotiate exemptions. Beijing has retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods and an antitrust investigation into Google. Southeast Asian countries, benefiting from the China+1 strategy, must now reassess supply chain resilience as they become more visible on the U.S. trade radar. Rising Chinese investment in the region raises concerns about firms being labeled as "Made By China," potentially exposing them to U.S. tariffs. To mitigate risks, greater local ownership in Chinese firms and higher value-added contributions to manufacturing could emerge as trends. Kristina Fong Siew Leng, Fulcrum, February 7
Chinese EVs in Southeast Asia: More Sustainable Approach Needed. Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers are expanding in Southeast Asia but risk repeating past failures of Chinese motorcycle firms that lost consumer trust due to poor quality and weak after-sales support. While investment in the region, particularly in Thailand, has surged, concerns over safety standards and inadequate service infrastructure persist. To secure long-term success, Chinese EV firms must prioritize product reliability, build strong after-sales networks, and adapt to local consumer needs through partnerships with regional suppliers. Shi Youwei, Fulcrum, February 7