Asia Daily: February 5, 2024
News
Philippines ready to use 'forces' to quell any secession attempt, official says. The Philippine government, through National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano, has declared its readiness to employ "authority and forces" to counter secession attempts, following former President Duterte's call for Mindanao's independence. Ano emphasized the government's commitment to maintaining national unity and protecting the republic's integrity, especially in light of the peace gains with former separatist groups. This stance is in response to Duterte's critique of constitutional amendments proposed by President Marcos Jr. Mikhail Flores, Reuters, February 4
China’s Xinjiang invites overseas media to annual political meetings for first time as it aims to improve image. For the first time, Xinjiang welcomed international media and diplomats to its annual "two sessions," signaling an attempt to enhance its global image amid criticisms. Reporters from Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan, alongside diplomats from eight countries, attended, though coverage by overseas media was restricted. This move is part of Xinjiang's broader efforts to showcase its stance on combating terrorism and maintaining stability, despite facing international sanctions for alleged human rights violations. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, February 3
Kishida Cabinet support rate falls to 2nd-lowest 24.5% over scandal. The approval rating for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Cabinet has dropped to 24.5%, its second-lowest level, amid dissatisfaction with the handling of a political funds scandal within the Liberal Democratic Party. Public trust is further eroded by the lack of accountability from lawmakers and the absence of stringent measures against undeclared income from fundraising activities. The scandal's impact on the LDP's image and calls for more transparent political funds management underscore the challenges facing Kishida's leadership. Kyodo News, February 4
US official urges Papua New Guinea to reject Chinese security deal. The US has cautioned Papua New Guinea against entering a security pact with China, highlighting potential costs and consequences. This advice comes amid discussions between PNG and China about enhancing PNG's police force with Chinese training, equipment, and technology. The US and Australia, considering the Pacific their sphere of influence, are keen to prevent Pacific nations from forming security ties with China. Renju Jose, Reuters, February 4
Tajikistan: Social norms complicate battle against domestic violence. In Tajikistan, pervasive social norms and the lack of strong legislative measures severely hinder the fight against domestic violence, with estimates suggesting that one in two Tajik women have experienced such violence. This situation is exacerbated by cultural beliefs that undermine women's autonomy and value within society, as well as the insufficient support systems, such as a limited number of shelters. Efforts to address the issue are challenged by societal attitudes that often prioritize family integrity over individual safety, leaving many women without recourse. Eurasianet, Eurasianet, February 5
China vows to boost farm output, seed research in renewed food security, tech self-reliance push. China aims to increase agricultural productivity and advance seed research to secure food supply and achieve technological independence. The State Council's annual rural policy blueprint emphasizes the significance of stabilizing grain-planting areas and enhancing per-unit yields. Amid global market uncertainties, China seeks to bolster grain self-sufficiency, expand high-yield crop plantations, and develop superior seed varieties to ensure food security for its 1.4 billion citizens. Luna Sun, South China Morning Post, February 4
China named as hypothetical enemy for 1st time in Japan-U.S. exercise. For the first time, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. military have identified China as a hypothetical enemy in their joint command post exercise, amid concerns over China's potential actions towards Taiwan. This move reflects growing geopolitical tensions and the strategic focus on readiness for possible future conflicts. The exercise, part of the "Keen Edge" series, underscores the deepening military cooperation between Japan and the U.S. in response to regional security challenges. Kyodo News, February 4
China 'demands' no PH action to worsen sea row. Amid ongoing territorial disputes, China has urged the Philippines not to engage in actions that could escalate tensions in the South China Sea. This demand follows a recent incident where a Philippine resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal proceeded without interference from Chinese vessels, marking a rare occurrence in the contested waters. The situation underscores the delicate balance of power and diplomacy in the region. Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, February 4
Activist Ruangkrai renews bid to ban 44 Move Forward MPs. Ruangkrai Leekitwattana has submitted a petition to the National Anti-Corruption Commission, targeting 44 MPs from the Move Forward Party for their support of a proposed amendment to the lese majeste law, following a Constitutional Court decision that deemed such efforts potentially harmful to the monarchy. This move questions the MPs' adherence to constitutional ethical standards, hinting at significant political ramifications. Bangkok Post, February 4.
New party led by DP defectors sets sail ahead of April elections. A new political entity, the "New Future" party, has emerged from the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) in South Korea, led by former DP leader Lee Nak-yon and several lawmakers. This development comes as the country approaches the parliamentary elections on April 10. The party aims to address the middle-income class's concerns and national interests, marking a significant shift in the political landscape. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, February 4
Long Form
The Iran Factor in the China-Taiwan-US Triangle. China's potential use of Iran as a strategic tool to further distance the United States from Taiwan marks a significant development in the intricate geopolitical landscape involving China, Taiwan, and the US. This maneuver is part of China's broader strategy to assert its influence on the global stage, particularly through its deepening ties with Iran amidst the complex dynamics of the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. The partnership between China and Iran, rooted in mutual economic and strategic interests, suggests a deliberate approach by Beijing to enhance its geopolitical leverage, with implications that extend well beyond bilateral relations. The evolving relationship between China and Iran, set against the backdrop of the Taiwan Strait's tensions, underscores the multifaceted nature of international diplomacy and the shifting power dynamics that could reshape regional and global alignments. Thiago de Aragao, The Diplomat, February 3
Japan’s Nuclear Follies. Japan's recent experiences underscore the inherent risks of operating nuclear power plants in seismically active regions. The 7.6 magnitude Noto earthquake on January 1 highlighted the vulnerabilities, shaking the idled Shika nuclear plant beyond its design specifications. Although no major damage was reported, the incident, which resulted in the failure of two backup generators and a temporary loss of power in one of the cooling pools, serves as a stark reminder of the potential dangers. This event, juxtaposed with Japan's celebration of its moon landing, illustrates the complex challenges the country faces in balancing its technological advancements with the natural risks posed by its geographic location. The aftermath of the earthquake, which left thousands without water and electricity for extended periods and displaced some 14,000 residents, further emphasizes the need for a reassessment of Japan's nuclear energy strategy in the context of its susceptibility to natural disasters. Jeff Kingston, The Diplomat, February 3
Foreign Enthusiasm Over Japanese Stocks Yet to Filter Down at Home. Despite a significant uptick in the Nikkei Stock Average, with a 28% rise in 2023 and an additional 8% increase last month, Japanese stockbrokers have reported only subdued growth in retail revenue for the October-December quarter. This trend raises questions about the sustainability of the stock market rally and the extent of domestic investor participation. While firms like Nomura Holdings and SMBC Nikko Securities have seen improvements, with Nomura's pre-tax profit reaching an eight-year high and SMBC Nikko returning to operating profit, the growth in retail revenue has decelerated. This slowdown is attributed to increased profit-taking among retail investors as share prices surged. Despite the government's efforts to make Japanese stocks more appealing, including revamping the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) to encourage investment in domestic stocks, a significant portion of retail investment continues to flow into foreign stocks. This cautious stance among Japanese retail investors, coupled with their net selling of Japanese stocks in the face of foreign buying, underscores a complex investment landscape shaped by past experiences, inflation concerns, and the yen's depreciation. Mitsuru Obe, Nikkei Asia, February 5
Housing Glut Leaves China with Excess Homes for 150m People. China is currently facing a significant housing surplus, equivalent to accommodations for 150 million people or around 50 million homes, as of the end of 2023. This situation has arisen from a combination of weak sales and an ongoing population decline, leading to a prolonged inventory buildup in the real estate sector. Analysts predict it may take over five years for China to effectively reduce this excess stock. The decline in housing demand, exacerbated by the population decrease and improvements in living standards, is expected to prompt a global increase in exports of inexpensive building materials from China. This development follows the burst of China's housing bubble, highlighting the challenges within the real estate market and its broader economic implications. Yusho Cho, Nikkei Asia, February 3
Beijing Is Set to Rescue the Market Again: But Is That the Right Thing to Do? Beijing is reportedly preparing to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the Chinese stock markets, utilizing state resources in an effort to stabilize the ailing markets. This plan includes deploying approximately $278 billion from offshore accounts of state-owned enterprises and financial institutions, along with 300 billion RMB ($42 billion) from domestic government-backed funds like Central Huijin. While such interventions can be crucial during market panics, the effectiveness of this strategy in addressing the underlying issues facing Chinese stocks is debatable. Critics argue that these funds could be more beneficially used to foster long-term economic growth rather than providing short-term market support, which may expose state-owned enterprises to global price and liquidity shocks. This approach raises questions about the best use of state resources in bolstering the economy and whether focusing on the equity market is the most effective strategy. Victor Shih, The Wire China, February 4