Rubio hails Panama's move to exit Chinese infrastructure plan. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised Panama’s decision to let its Belt and Road Initiative agreement with China expire, calling it a step forward for U.S.-Panama relations. Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino indicated the deal, set to lapse in two to three years, might end early. China condemned the decision as politically motivated. Washington has long viewed China’s growing influence near the Panama Canal as a security risk. Simon Lewis and Michael Martina, Reuters, February 3
As China takes the gavel at the U.N. Security Council, its envoy has words for the U.S. China’s U.N. envoy Fu Cong criticized U.S. tariffs, AI restrictions, and alleged interference in the Panama Canal as he outlined Beijing’s multilateral agenda for its Security Council presidency. Fu called for global cooperation and condemned Washington’s actions against Chinese tech firms like DeepSeek. He also defended China’s Belt and Road Initiative after Panama withdrew. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, February 4
PM Ishiba to ask Trump to visit Japan this year during Feb. 7 talks. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba plans to invite U.S. President Donald Trump to Japan in late 2025 during their upcoming summit in Washington. Discussions will also cover Taiwan Strait security and reaffirming U.S. defense commitments to the Senkaku Islands. Ishiba aims to strengthen ties with Trump and promote cooperation on semiconductors and AI. The visit could align with the APEC summit in South Korea. Kyodo News, February 3
Marcos hands off on impeachment raps vs. VP Duterte – Bersamin. Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin denied claims that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is obstructing impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte, stating that the process is solely the House of Representatives' prerogative. Makabayan bloc lawmakers accused Marcos of interference, but Bersamin reiterated that the president respects institutional boundaries. Luisa Cabato, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 3
N. Korea criticizes U.S. missile defense plan, vows to bolster nuke deterrence. North Korea condemned the Trump administration’s plan to expand missile defense systems in the Asia-Pacific, calling it a threat to regional stability. The country’s foreign ministry warned it would respond by strengthening its nuclear deterrent. Pyongyang accused the U.S. of pursuing military hegemony, citing plans to deploy advanced systems like THAAD in South Korea. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, February 3
China renews threat to retaliate against U.S. tariffs. China vowed to take “necessary countermeasures” after President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs over Beijing’s alleged failure to curb fentanyl production. The Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the move as a violation of WTO rules and called on Washington to reverse course. China also dismissed U.S. accusations, arguing that fentanyl control measures have been strictly enforced. The dispute comes amid broader trade tensions, with China warning of economic consequences. AP News, February 3
People's Party candidate wins Lamphun election. Weeradej Pupisit of the opposition People's Party (PP) won the Lamphun Provincial Administrative Organization presidential election, defeating veteran Anusorn Wongwan of the ruling Pheu Thai Party. This marks PP’s first victory in the race for PAO presidents across 47 provinces. Weeradej, a longtime party coordinator, campaigned on a progressive platform despite challenges appealing to older voters. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, February 3
Trump to speak with China's Xi after raising tariffs, White House says. U.S. President Donald Trump plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping following his decision to impose 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% on most Mexican and Canadian imports. Trump warned that tariffs could increase further if China does not curb fentanyl shipments. He also reiterated opposition to China’s involvement in the Panama Canal. Mexico avoided tariffs after agreeing to strengthen border security. Trevor Hunnicutt & Steve Holland, Reuters, February 3
3 ministers purged in Myanmar junta’s latest reshuffle. Myanmar’s military regime removed three ministers in a government reshuffle marking the coup’s fourth anniversary. Home Affairs Minister Yar Pyae and Border Affairs Minister Tun Tun Naung swapped roles, while three civilian ministers were dismissed under the pretense of “retirement.” Thet Thet Khine, a former NLD lawmaker, was replaced as hotels minister, sparking speculation over her role in upcoming elections. The reshuffle also elevated key military officers linked to junta chief Min Aung Hlaing. Aung Thura, The Irrawaddy, February 3
China’s ambassador to Panama slams U.S. for stirring ‘tropical storm’ with Marco Rubio visit. Chinese Ambassador Xu Xueyuan accused the U.S. of coercive diplomacy after Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged Panama to distance itself from China. Panama later announced it would withdraw from Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Rubio claimed China’s presence at the Panama Canal threatened U.S. security, while Trump suggested reclaiming control of the canal. Xu defended China’s role, dismissing U.S. allegations as hypocrisy. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, February 4
Kiribati responds to NZ aid review, calls for diplomatic dialogue. The Kiribati government has defended its decision not to meet with New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, citing last year’s elections and the need for talks with the new administration. New Zealand launched a review of its $102 million aid program after struggling to secure high-level meetings. Kiribati expressed surprise at the diplomatic fallout, emphasizing its commitment to dialogue. Officials hope to resolve tensions and restore cooperation. Alakihihifo Vailala, Pacific Media Network, February 3
N. Korea condemns Rubio's 'rogue state' remarks in its 1st criticism against Trump gov't. North Korea denounced U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for labeling it a “rogue state,” calling the remark a “grave political provocation.” The statement, issued by Pyongyang’s foreign ministry, marked the regime’s first official criticism of the Trump administration. North Korea warned of “powerful counteraction” and reiterated its commitment to strengthening its nuclear program. South Korea’s unification ministry condemned the North’s stance, reaffirming the U.S.-South Korea goal of denuclearization. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, February 3
Westmincom tracking movement of 3 Chinese vessels in PH waters. The Western Mindanao Command (Westmincom) is monitoring three Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy vessels that entered Philippine waters on February 2. The ships, including a guided-missile cruiser and a replenishment oiler, moved through the Mindoro Strait toward the Sulu Sea without prior diplomatic coordination. The Philippine Navy deployed aircraft and vessels to track and challenge the ships. Julie S. Alipala, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 3
Food prices kept inching up in Caucasus and Central Asia in 2024 – World Bank report. The World Bank reported rising food price inflation across the Caucasus and Central Asia in 2024, though Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan saw moderation by year-end. Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan experienced steady increases, while Turkmenistan’s inflation remains unclear due to limited data. The UN highlighted shifting dietary patterns driven by rising costs, with undernutrition and obesity coexisting in many lower-income nations. Eurasianet, February 3
'Good opportunity' for Rubio, Wang to meet at U.N. on Feb. 18, says China's UN envoy. China's U.N. Ambassador Fu Cong said a Security Council session chaired by Foreign Minister Wang Yi could facilitate a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Fu urged cooperation on global issues but criticized U.S. tariffs and policies on Chinese technology. He also announced China’s WTO complaint against new Trump administration tariffs and warned of possible retaliation. Michelle Nichols, Reuters, February 3
South Africa presses Taiwan to vacate liaison office in Pretoria. Taiwan expressed concern over South Africa’s renewed demand to downgrade and relocate its de facto embassy by March, citing increasing pressure from Beijing. The dispute follows China’s sanctions on South African opposition leader Ivan Meyer for visiting Taiwan. Pretoria, which switched diplomatic ties to Beijing in 1997, has received over $10 billion in Chinese loans. Taiwan’s foreign ministry vowed to resist unilateral changes and has convened a crisis response team. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, February 3
Tokyo stocks tumble as U.S. tariffs bring fears over trade. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 2.66% as concerns over U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico triggered heavy selling. Automakers were hit hardest, with fears that higher costs on Mexico-based production could hurt sales. The U.S. dollar briefly surged to 155 yen, reflecting expectations of prolonged high U.S. interest rates. Canada and Mexico’s vows to retaliate added to market uncertainty, raising fears of a broader trade war. Kyodo News, February 3
Taiwan to help companies relocate to U.S. following Trump tariffs. Taiwan’s economy ministry announced plans to assist businesses moving operations to the U.S. after President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian imports. The government will provide information on investment locations, legal regulations, and business partnerships. Taiwan is also pushing firms to shift away from China amid ongoing tensions. Major Taiwanese tech companies with factories in Mexico saw stock declines following the tariff announcement. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, February 3
Cuban leaders hail CPV as architect of Vietnam’s victories. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel and General Raul Castro praised the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) for leading the country’s successes since its founding in 1930. In a message marking the CPV’s 95th anniversary, they highlighted Vietnam’s Doi Moi (Renewal) policy as a model for socialist development. The leaders reaffirmed Cuba’s unwavering support for Vietnam and emphasized their countries’ deep historical ties, rooted in the legacies of Ho Chi Minh and Fidel Castro. Vietnam News, February 3
Indonesian Air Force to receive six Rafale fighter jets by 2026. Air Force Chief of Staff Mohamad Tonny Harjono announced that Indonesia will receive six Rafale fighter jets from France, with three arriving in early 2026 and the rest three months later. The jets will be based at Roesmin Nurjadin Air Force Base in Pekanbaru, where new simulators and facilities are being built. Indonesia has ordered 42 Rafales in total. The Air Force will also acquire Airbus A400M transport aircraft. ANTARA News, February 3
Taiwan’s economic growth prevails despite China’s military intimidation. Taiwan’s economy grew 4.3% in 2024, outperforming regional peers despite rising tensions after President Lai Ching-te’s election. Taiwanese firms relocated ICT production from China, tripling ICT and audiovisual exports since 2019, with the U.S. as the top market. Domestic investment increased while manufacturing’s overseas production ratio fell to 49%. TSMC expanded its global foundry market share to 62%, driving export growth. Inflation and soaring housing prices constrained private consumption, with household debt reaching 90% of GDP. Investment in China’s electronics sector dropped to $2 million due to economic risks. To address inequality, Taiwan nearly doubled social welfare spending over the past decade. Chiang Min-Hua, East Asia Forum, February 4.
Prabowo inherits the unfinished business of Jokowinomics. Indonesia maintained 5% economic growth in 2024 despite election-related uncertainties and external pressures, including rising food and energy costs from El Niño. President Prabowo Subianto faces four key challenges in 2025: weak consumer spending, sluggish exports, fiscal constraints, and slow reform progress. Household spending declined amid stagnant incomes, despite government subsidies. Weak global demand and trade barriers hurt key exports like coal, nickel, and palm oil, while protectionist policies hindered competitiveness. Fiscal pressures mounted, with the budget deficit reaching 2.7% of GDP and public debt nearing 40% of GDP. Spending cuts on infrastructure were made to finance social programs, while tax reforms, including a planned VAT hike, faced public resistance. Investment climate improvements remain inconsistent, as uncertainty over labor laws and energy transition policies deter investors. Indonesia’s entry into BRICS offers opportunities but also risks deeper reliance on Chinese trade and investment. With strong approval ratings, Prabowo’s administration has the political capital to implement crucial economic reforms. Siwage Dharma Negara, East Asia Forum, January 31.
Indonesia’s expanding bureaucracy erodes civil service integrity. President Prabowo Subianto has created Indonesia’s largest bureaucracy since 1966, expanding his cabinet to 109 members and splitting nine ministries into 21, raising concerns over inefficiency and weakened oversight. The dismantling of the Indonesian Civil Service Commission (KASN) through Law Number 20 of 2023 and Presidential Regulations 91 and 92 of 2024 transferred its functions to the Ministry of Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform and the National Civil Service Agency, raising fears of politicized oversight. Between 2020 and 2023, KASN received 2,292 reports of civil service neutrality violations, with 464 additional cases reported during the 2024 election period. The loss of independent oversight threatens Indonesia’s investment climate, as regulatory inefficiencies deter foreign direct investment, which stood at 2.1% of GDP in 2024—far below the 4.5% target for Indonesia’s 2045 economic vision. Indonesia ranks 65th out of 141 countries in civil service meritocracy, trailing most ASEAN nations. To restore accountability, a new oversight body with constitutional-level protection, independent funding, and explicit enforcement authority is needed. Without such measures, Prabowo’s centralization of power risks undermining bureaucratic integrity, governance standards, and Indonesia’s long-term economic ambitions. Emba Emba, East Asia Forum, February 1
Trump in Pyongyang? Former President Donald Trump has announced plans to reach out to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, aiming to revive summit-driven diplomacy. During his first term, Trump held three summits with Kim, marking the first meetings between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader. However, the geopolitical landscape has changed since 2018. North Korea has strengthened ties with Russia and China, with reports of North Korean troops supporting Russian forces in Ukraine. Additionally, North Korea has advanced its nuclear capabilities, deploying missiles capable of reaching regional targets and American cities, contributing to a regional arms race. Previous engagements between Trump and Kim faced challenges, notably the abrupt end of the 2019 Hanoi summit and unmet commitments following their Demilitarized Zone meeting. Reestablishing dialogue will require time, patience, and strategic initiatives. Engaging Moscow and Beijing may be crucial, given their influence over Pyongyang. Joel S. Wit, 38 North, January 31
Signs Point to Continued Expansion of Nampho Port. Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates ongoing development at North Korea's Nampho Port, showing its increasing importance in the nation's economic and military sectors. Notable advancements include the completion of a new shipbuilding hall's roof, progress on adjacent auxiliary structures, and the near-finalization of backfilling a former secure boat basin to create additional construction space. Additionally, four new petroleum, oil, and lubricants (POL) storage tanks have been completed, and new piers have been constructed at the ends of two nearby wharves. These developments suggest a concerted effort to improve both the port's commercial capabilities and its role in naval modernization. Martyn Williams, Peter Makowsky, Jack Liu, and Iliana Ragnone, 38 North, January 31
Philippines Declares Food Security Emergency to Bring Down Rice Prices. The Philippines has declared a food security emergency to address persistently high rice prices, despite previous tariff reductions on imported rice. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu-Laurel announced that the government will release 300,000 metric tons of rice from the National Food Authority's buffer stock, distributing 30,000 metric tons monthly to government agencies, local governments, and outlets under the "Kadiwa ng Pangulo" program. This aims to stabilize rice prices and ensure accessibility for consumers. Despite a tariff cut from 35% to 15% in June 2024, rice prices have remained elevated, with December 2024 prices approximately 19-20% higher than in July 2023. The emergency declaration seeks to mitigate further price increases and prepare for the upcoming harvest season. Sebastian Strangio, The Diplomat, February 4
Just a Little Tax Spat? Russia Asks Kyrgyzstan to Stop Pressure on Companies. During a bilateral meeting on January 31, 2025, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin expressed concerns to Kyrgyzstan's Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Adylbek Kasymaliev, regarding alleged administrative pressures on Russian companies operating in Kyrgyzstan. Mishustin discussed "unfounded claims and illegal statements by high-level representatives of Kyrgyz government bodies" against Russian firms contributing to Kyrgyzstan's economy. He urged Kyrgyz authorities to cease such actions and protect the rights of Russian investors. This discussion occurred alongside a Eurasian Economic Union gathering in Almaty, Kazakhstan. The specific companies involved were not named, but in November 2024, Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security investigated Yandex.Taxi, a Russian ride-sharing service, for alleged tax evasion. Catherine Putz, The Diplomat, February 4
Trump 2.0 and Thailand: Transactional Realism. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has raised concerns about potential strains in U.S.-Thailand relations. Trump's approach, characterized as "transactional realism," focuses on state security through optimal relative gains, neo-mercantilist policies, and decoupling from interdependence, particularly with China. This contrasts with the previous administration's liberal internationalism, which focused on strengthening alliances and promoting democracy. During his first term, Trump took actions affecting Thailand, such as placing it on the U.S. Currency Manipulation Watch List and suspending certain trade benefits due to market access issues. Given Thailand's trade surplus with the U.S. and its deepening ties with China, the Thai government may need to navigate pressures from the U.S. in areas like economics and trade. Maintaining a hedging strategy between the two superpowers could be crucial for Thailand's foreign policy. Paul Wesley Chambers, Fulcrum, February 4
Rebel Violence in Myanmar and NUG's Crisis of Legitimacy. The National Unity Government (NUG) of Myanmar faces a legitimacy crisis as some of its affiliated law enforcement groups, collectively known as "The Three Pa"—comprising People's Security Forces (PSF) and People's Defence Organisations (PDO)—have been implicated in serious human rights violations against civilians within NUG-controlled territories. Incidents include extrajudicial killings, unlawful arrests, torture, and sexual violence. Notably, in July 2024, a 16-year-old member of the All-Burma Federation of Students' Union was found murdered, with suspects allegedly linked to a local resistance group under the NUG's umbrella. While the NUG condemned the act and detained four suspects, such occurrences have eroded public trust. Established in April 2021 to counter the military junta and promote a federal union based on equality and justice, the NUG's inability to control rogue elements within its forces threatens its standing as a legitimate alternative government. Htet Hlaing Win, Fulcrum, February 3
Vietnam's Era of 'National Rise': Great Expectations. General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, To Lam, has introduced a framework dividing modern Vietnamese history into three periods: the era of independence and socialism (1930-1975), the era of reunification and Doi Moi reforms (1975-2025), and the forthcoming era of national rise (2026-2045). This new phase aims for Vietnam to attain upper middle-income status by 2030 and high-income status by 2045. To Lam emphasizes the importance of the 2024-2030 period as a "sprint" to build a solid foundation for these goals, leveraging global changes such as the Fourth Industrial Revolution to facilitate rapid development. However, the accelerated nature of this vision presents challenges, requiring advancements in governance and economic development to achieve the ambitious targets set for the nation's future. Phan Xuan Dung, Fulcrum, January 31