Asia Daily: February 26, 2025
North Korea's Kim calls for building modern army to brace for war. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the military to modernize and prepare for war during a visit to the Kang Kon Military Academy. Kim criticized outdated training methods and called for practical education on modern warfare. South Korea’s intelligence agency warned that North Korea may deploy more troops to Russia, where over 3,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed or wounded. Hyonhee Shin, Reuters, February 26
International tourists visit North Korea for the first time in years. A group of 13 foreign tourists visited North Korea’s Rason Special Economic Zone, marking the country’s first international tour group in five years. The trip, arranged by Beijing-based Koryo Tours, signals Pyongyang’s push to revive tourism for foreign currency. North Korea previously welcomed Russian tourists in 2024 but has yet to resume group travel from China, its top tourism market. Hyung-jin Kim, AP News, February 26
Impeachment clerk of court readies for ‘tough grind’ in VP Duterte trial. Senate Secretary Renato Bantug has been designated as the Clerk of Court for Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial. Appointed by Senate President Francis Escudero, Bantug will oversee non-judicial functions, including record-keeping, issuing summons, and managing court proceedings. Bantug, who assisted in a previous impeachment trial, is preparing by consulting legal experts and reviewing procedural rules. Budgetary preparations for the trial have also begun. Maila Ager, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 27
Ruling parties of N. Korea, Russia agree to expand cooperation: KCNA. North Korea’s Workers’ Party and Russia’s ruling United Russia party signed a protocol to deepen party-to-party exchanges from 2025 to 2027. Ri Hi-yong, a top North Korean official, met Russian Secretary General Vladimir Yakushev in Moscow to discuss joint actions under their comprehensive strategic partnership. The move follows last year’s mutual defense treaty, which strengthened cooperation in defense, economy, and sports. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, February 27
Policy differences push Komeito to tread carefully in LDP coalition. Komeito is distancing itself from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) amid policy rifts, particularly over political reform and Japan’s stance on nuclear weapons treaties. Party chief Tetsuo Saito, elected after Komeito’s Lower House election loss, aims to realign with its Soka Gakkai roots. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba secured budget passage by striking a deal with Nippon Ishin no Kai, bypassing Komeito. Eric Johnston, The Japan Times, February 27
Donald Trump declines to say whether U.S. would defend Taiwan in attack by mainland China. U.S. President Donald Trump refused to commit to defending Taiwan if China launched an attack, stating he prefers to keep his stance ambiguous. Speaking at a cabinet meeting alongside Elon Musk, Trump instead emphasized maintaining a "good relationship" with Beijing. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the U.S. remains committed to deterring any Chinese aggression. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, February 27
U.S. shows interest in bolstering ties with Central Asian states. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed U.S. commitment to the C5+1 framework during talks with Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov. Discussions focused on investment in critical minerals, civil nuclear energy, and Uzbekistan’s WTO accession. The U.S. also seeks to counter China’s influence and strengthen regional trade. Agreements were reached on migration, infrastructure, and Afghanistan-related economic projects. Eurasianet, February 26
Taiwan details surge in Chinese military activity, did not detect live fire. Taiwan’s defense ministry reported 45 Chinese military aircraft and 14 navy vessels operating around the island, including seven ships in a designated "drill zone" off Taiwan’s southwest coast. Despite earlier warnings, Taiwan detected no live-fire exercises. Taipei condemned the move as provocative and called for international condemnation. Yimou Lee and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, February 26
MPs, cabinet to vote on court petition. Thai lawmakers and the cabinet will hold a joint session on March 17 to decide whether the Constitutional Court should clarify the referendum process for amending the charter. The ruling Pheu Thai Party and the opposition People's Party seek to revise Section 256 to establish a Constitution Drafting Assembly, but disagreements over referendum requirements have stalled progress. If the court is consulted, charter amendment efforts will be suspended. Bangkok Post, February 27
Constitutional Court rules acting president’s non-appointment of justice infringes Nat’l Assembly’s right. South Korea’s Constitutional Court ruled that Acting President Choi Sang-mok’s refusal to appoint Justice candidate Ma Eun-hyuk was unconstitutional, violating the National Assembly’s right to elect justices. However, the court dismissed a request to enforce the appointment. The ruling is significant as Ma’s appointment could influence President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment trial. Choi’s office stated he would carefully review the decision before taking action. Chae Yun-hwan and Kim Han-joo, Yonhap News Agency, February 27
New Zealand's foreign minister raises concerns over China's Tasman Sea drills on Beijing visit. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters confronted Chinese officials over live-fire naval exercises in the Tasman Sea, criticizing Beijing’s failure to provide adequate notice. During meetings with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice President Han Zheng, Peters also raised concerns about China’s growing ties with the Cook Islands. China defended its military actions and pledged to consider providing earlier warnings for future drills. Laurie Chen, Reuters, February 26
New Zealand says China has agreed to consider concerns about its recent military drills. Chinese officials told New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters they would review concerns over inadequate notice for live-fire drills that forced flight diversions in the Tasman Sea. Peters raised the issue with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while Australia also sought an explanation. China defended the exercises as lawful. Peters’ Beijing visit also covered New Zealand’s concerns over China’s growing influence in the Cook Islands. Ken Moritsugu, AP News, February 26
ADB considers $500 million support for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is reviewing Tajikistan’s request for $500 million in funding for the Rogun Hydropower Plant, a key project for the country’s energy security and regional stability. ADB’s country manager, Ko Sakamoto, confirmed continued support, with final decisions pending negotiations. In 2024, ADB provided $220 million for various sectors and plans four new projects in 2025, including digital agriculture and climate initiatives. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, February 26
Myanmar junta using devastating thermobaric bombs indiscriminately: EAOs, experts. Myanmar’s military is deploying thermobaric bombs, known for their extreme blast effects, against both military and civilian targets in Shan, Chin, Kachin, and Sagaing. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) confirmed their use in Bhamo, while Human Rights Watch linked them to a 2023 massacre in Pazi Gyi. The junta sources bombs from China and produces its own with Russian technology. Experts warn these weapons cause suffocation and severe internal injuries. The Irrawaddy, February 26
EU trade chief plans China visit amid soaring tensions with Donald Trump. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is set to visit China in late March, following talks with U.S. officials in Washington. The visit aims to address trade disputes, including EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and concerns over Beijing’s industrial overcapacity. Sefcovic’s trip comes amid growing transatlantic tensions, with Trump threatening 25% tariffs on EU goods. Brussels is exploring countermeasures if a trade war escalates. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, February 27
Vietnam, New Zealand elevate ties to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Vietnam and New Zealand have upgraded their diplomatic relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, marking a historic milestone. Prime Ministers Pham Minh Chinh and Christopher Luxon announced the development during Luxon’s visit to Hanoi. Both nations reaffirmed commitments to regional stability, maritime security, and multilateral cooperation. Several agreements were signed to strengthen ties in trade, education, and defense. Vietnam News, February 26
Malaysia’s reform aspirations clashed with political realities in 2024. Economic growth surged in 2024, supported by foreign investment, particularly in semiconductors, and a modest recovery of the ringgit. However, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faced challenges in pursuing reforms due to entrenched political divisions, coalition constraints, and identity politics. Controversies over race and religion, including backlash over a university’s proposal to admit non-Malay students and the prosecution of opposition leader Muhyiddin Yassin for sedition, displayed deep societal tensions. Anwar’s reliance on UMNO complicated his reformist agenda, especially with public discontent over the reduced sentence of former prime minister Najib Razak, linked to the 1MDB scandal. Compounding crises such as severe flooding, food security concerns, and infrastructure issues further tested Anwar’s leadership. On the international front, Malaysia balanced ties with China and the West while preparing for its pivotal 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship. Success will require strategic pragmatism and effective coordination amid regional and global uncertainties. Kai Ostwald, East Asia Forum, February 27
India’s economic growth engine begins to stall. India’s economy grew by 8.2 percent in fiscal year 2023–24, maintaining its status as the fastest-growing major economy, but momentum slowed in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, with growth falling to 5.4 percent. Depressed consumer demand, linked to stagnant or declining real wages, particularly among the informal workforce, contributed to the slowdown. Corporate profits surged, widening income disparities and dampening spending. Despite the government’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to boost manufacturing and employment, its impact has been limited. Additionally, India faced challenges with its balance of payments, as a widening merchandise trade deficit and significant outflows of foreign direct and portfolio investments pressured the rupee. Economic uncertainties are compounded by global headwinds and structural issues, posing challenges to India’s long-term growth ambitions. Biswajit Dhar, East Asia Forum, February 26.
Silent Saboteurs: Loaded Assumptions in US AI Policy. Emerging US AI policy is shaped by five key assumptions, including the effectiveness of chip controls on China, the containment of Chinese AI competition, and dependencies on US technology infrastructure. These assumptions influence strategies like the US AI Diffusion Framework, which aims to maintain technological leadership. However, developments such as China's DeepSeek R1 model highlight growing global competition. The analysis suggests reassessing these assumptions for better policy outcomes. Reva Goujon, Ben Reynolds, John Larsen, Rhodium Group, February 26
Strengthening Pacific Security: US Shiprider Agreements. The United States is expanding shiprider agreements with Pacific Island countries to improve maritime security, combat illegal fishing, and reinforce territorial sovereignty. These agreements allow Pacific nations to leverage US resources, such as the Coast Guard, to patrol vast Exclusive Economic Zones. The strategy also aims to counter China’s growing influence in the region. The US is increasing the frequency and flexibility of these agreements to support regional security and strengthen alliances. Ray Joseph, Foreign Policy Research Institute, February 26
New Government Policy Shows Japan Favors a Light Touch for AI Regulation. Japan has opted for a light-touch approach to AI regulation, focusing on voluntary guidelines and industry self-regulation rather than strict legal frameworks. This strategy aims to encourage innovation while maintaining ethical standards. Japan's approach contrasts with more stringent AI policies in the EU and US, positioning the country as a competitive player in the global AI market. Hiroki Habuka, CSIS, February 25
Airstrikes: The Last Bastion of Junta Power in Myanmar. The Myanmar military relies heavily on airstrikes to maintain control, targeting civilian areas, including schools, hospitals, and churches, particularly in Karenni State. With no air defense capabilities, resistance forces and civilians are vulnerable to frequent aerial assaults. The ongoing conflict has devastated infrastructure and displaced large populations, while economic collapse and shortages worsen humanitarian conditions. The airstrikes illustrate the junta’s strategic dependence on aerial power to suppress resistance. Antonio Graceffo, Geopolitical Monitor, February 26
Can the Arakan Army Win Recognition for Its Rule Over Rakhine State? The Arakan Army (AA) now controls over 80% of Myanmar's Rakhine State, establishing parallel governance structures, including its own legal and taxation systems. To gain international recognition or autonomy, the AA must balance effective governance with strategic diplomacy, while dealing with the interests of regional powers like China, India, and ASEAN. Its efforts mirror other secessionist movements but face political and humanitarian challenges. Khaing Min Thant, The Diplomat, February 26
Joko Widodo, Prabowo, and Nahdlatul Ulama. Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Muslim organization, played a crucial role in supporting Prabowo’s presidential campaign, anticipating strategic influence in religious policymaking. Despite expectations, NU did not secure the Religious Affairs Ministry, which went to a figure outside its network, signaling Prabowo's approach to balancing political allegiances among diverse Islamic groups. NU did, however, receive other ministerial roles, preserving its political relevance. Prabowo’s inclusive strategy contrasts with Jokowi’s stronger NU alignment. Despite disappointment, NU remains supportive, demonstrating political patience and pragmatism. Syafiq Hasyim, Fulcrum, February 27
Prabowo Subianto’s First Cabinet Adjustment: Pressured to Deliver But Allegiance Still Prized. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made a cautious cabinet adjustment, replacing only one minister despite mounting public dissatisfaction over economic issues and governance challenges. His decision is indicative of a strategy focused on preserving political alliances, prioritizing loyalty and stability over technocratic expertise. This approach reflects Prabowo’s need to balance political pressures with maintaining coalition unity. However, it raises concerns about policy effectiveness and governance efficiency, as political allegiance continues to outweigh performance-based appointments. Julia Lau, Yanuar Nugroho, Fulcrum, February 26