China
China says it will decide on U.S. tariff countermeasures in due course. China said it will decide in due course whether to adjust countermeasures after Trump announced a temporary 15% tariff on U.S. imports from all countries. A commerce ministry official urged Washington to cancel unilateral tariffs and said Beijing is willing to hold frank consultations in a sixth round of trade talks. The official said China suspended most retaliatory measures in November after the two sides reached a trade truce. Colleen Howe, Liz Lee and Beijing newsroom, Reuters, February 24
China military purge taking toll on command and readiness, study finds. The IISS Military Balance report said China’s corruption purges have left command vacancies that likely hamper PLA readiness. The report said investigations reduced the seven-member Central Military Commission to Xi Jinping and vice chairman Zhang Shengmin. IISS called the impact near-term and said modernization continues as China’s share of Asia's defense spending rose to nearly 44% in 2025. Greg Torode, Reuters, February 24
‘Record’ Chinese maritime militia deployed in South China Sea in 2025: U.S. report. A CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative report found Chinese maritime militia deployments averaged 241 vessels a day in the South China Sea in 2025. The report said civilian fishing fleets clustered near less contested reefs, suggesting a waning strategic role. China’s foreign ministry has repeatedly denied involvement of a maritime militia in South China Sea standoffs. Seong Hyeon Choi, South China Morning Post, February 24
China's DeepSeek trained AI model on Nvidia's best chip despite U.S. ban, official says. A senior Trump administration official said DeepSeek trained its next AI model on Nvidia’s Blackwell chip despite U.S. export controls. The official said DeepSeek may remove technical indicators and that the chips are likely clustered at a data center in Inner Mongolia. Nvidia declined to comment, and DeepSeek and the Commerce Department did not respond as China criticized U.S. controls. Steve Holland, Alexandra Alper and Liz Lee, Reuters, February 24
German Chancellor Merz heads to China seeking openings as global pressure builds. Chancellor Friedrich Merz heads to China with business leaders including Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz. Germany ran an almost 90 billion euro trade deficit with China in 2025 as Chinese competition, export controls and U.S. tariffs squeezed key industries. Merz will meet Xi Jinping and Li Qiang and is expected to sign economic agreements and visit Mercedes-Benz and Siemens Energy sites. Andreas Rinke, Christoph Steitz, Liz Lee and James Mackenzie, Reuters, February 24
China has not yet received any Nvidia H200 chips, U.S. official says. A U.S. Commerce official told the House that Nvidia’s H200 AI chips have not reached Chinese customers. Assistant secretary David Peters said sales remain stalled as the administration applies guardrails to China-bound shipments. Peters confirmed chip smuggling into China and called it a top enforcement priority. Alexandra Alper, Reuters, February 24
Japan
Japan hopes to stick to existing US deal in face of Trump's new tariffs. Japan asked the United States to keep its tariff treatment as favorable as last year’s deal and avoid stacking new duties on reduced rates. Trump announced a temporary 15% duty after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down his IEEPA tariffs, raising costs for some Japanese exports. Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Japan will stick to the existing agreement ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s late-March U.S. visit. Tamiyuki Kihara, Yoshifumi Takemoto, Kantaro Komiya, Mariko Katsumura, Chang-Ran Kim, Makiko Yamazaki and Anton Bridge, Reuters, February 24
Japan seeks stronger defense ties with Pacific island nations. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi pledged more personnel exchanges, crisis response and cybersecurity with 14 Pacific island nations. He called for a free and open ocean of peace under the rule of law. Japan will start a leadership program for young and mid-career officials, and ASEAN members will join as observers. Ryo Kiyomiya, The Asahi Shimbun, February 24
China restricts exports to 40 Japanese entities with ties to military. China barred exports of Chinese-origin dual-use items to 20 Japanese entities and put 20 more on a watchlist requiring case-by-case licenses. Beijing said the move counters Japan’s remilitarization and followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about Taiwan. Japan lodged a protest and called the Japan-only restrictions unacceptable and out of step with international practice. The Asahi Shimbun, February 25
South Korea
Ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol appeals life sentence in martial law case. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol appealed his life sentence for leading an insurrection linked to his Dec. 3, 2024 martial law declaration. His legal team said the ruling contained errors in fact-finding and misapplied the law. Yoon apologized for public suffering but rejected the idea that troop deployment to the National Assembly amounted to insurrection. Lee Hyo-jin, The Korea Times, February 24
Nat’l Assembly approves arrest motion of ex-DP lawmaker over alleged bribery. The National Assembly approved an arrest motion for independent lawmaker Kang Sun-woo over bribery allegations. Prosecutors say she took 100 million won to support Kim Kyung’s nomination for the 2022 local elections. The motion passed 164-87, sending the case to court for a warrant hearing. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, February 24
Ruling party introduces another Commercial Act revision bill, triggering filibuster from opposition. The Democratic Party introduced another Commercial Act amendment requiring listed firms to cancel their own shares. The People Power Party launched a filibuster, warning the measure could invite hostile takeovers. The ruling party plans to end the filibuster after 24 hours with a three-fifths vote and pass the bill. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, February 24
Thailand
May parole for Thaksin. Justice Minister Pol Lt Gen Rutthapon Naowarat said Thaksin Shinawatra can apply for parole in May 2026 after serving two-thirds of his term. He said committees have been consulted and the process will follow routine procedures. The Supreme Court said his six months in a hospital VIP room did not count, and he returned to Klong Prem prison Sept. 9. Bangkok Post, February 25
Ballot case gains steam. The Central Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct set March 17 to decide whether to accept a case against EC chairman Narong Klanwarin and seven officials over QR codes and barcodes on Feb. 8 ballots. Lawyer Lt Yongyut Saokaewsatit accused them of misconduct under Section 157 for authorizing coded ballots that could undermine secret voting. Council of State secretary-general Pakorn Nilprapunt urged caution. Wassayos Ngamkham, Bangkok Post, February 25
Bhumjaithai locks in 15 ministries for Anutin's second cabinet, targets stable government structure. Bhumjaithai Party finalised a 5-19-8-3 formula for Anutin Charnvirakul’s second cabinet, reserving 19 posts and 15 ministries. Five posts go to independent experts, while Pheu Thai takes eight ministries and smaller parties take three. The coalition expects 298 seats after the Election Commission certifies results, but portfolio bargaining may intensify. The Nation, February 25
Myanmar
Myanmar junta sets mid-March date for new parliament. Myanmar’s military regime said a new parliament will convene in mid-March after its disputed election. It set the Lower House for March 16 and the Upper House for March 18, with regional assemblies on March 20. Official results gave the USDP 339 seats, and analysts said Min Aung Hlaing could become president under the military-backed system. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, February 24
Philippines
House panel to tackle Duterte’s impeachment cases next week. The House justice committee will hold hearings March 2-4 on four impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte. Chair Gerville Luistro said the panel will first assess sufficiency in form and may move to substance March 3. The latest complaint alleges abuse of confidential funds at the vice president’s office and education department. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, February 24
Duterte drew up ‘death lists,’ boasted about murders — ICC prosecutor. ICC prosecutor Edward Jeremy told judges Rodrigo Duterte compiled lists of alleged drug suspects and many were later killed. Prosecutors say Duterte faces three crimes against humanity counts tied to at least 76 murders from 2013 to 2018. Jeremy cited witness accounts of children being strangled after police taped their heads. Author, The Manila Times, February 24
ICC tackles drug war role of Duterte officials. ICC prosecutors said Duterte and officials used police and drug agencies to kill alleged drug offenders. They cited roles for Ronald dela Rosa, Bong Go and other aides from Davao to the national campaign. They presented a ‘PRRD list’ and said orders to ‘neutralize’ meant to kill. Kathleen de Villa and Zacarian Sarao, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 25
Indonesia
Indonesia troubled by expired US-Russia nuclear treaty. Indonesia said New START expired Feb. 5, leaving no agreed limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces. Foreign Minister Sugiono told a Geneva conference that the lapse erodes transparency and predictability and increases risks of miscalculation and arms racing. He said non-nuclear states meet strict safeguards while nuclear states delay disarmament, and he urged a modernized treaty. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, February 24
Singapore
Budget 2026: MPs debate if $15.1b surplus is ammunition for the future or ‘unnecessary hoarding’. MPs debated a $15.1 billion Budget 2026 surplus, double the $6.8 billion estimate and 1.9% of GDP. PAP members said the windfall should bolster reserves against global volatility and tax swings. Workers’ Party leaders called it unnecessary hoarding and sought clearer accounting for spending, including past social packages. Anjali Raguraman, The Straits Times, February 24
Taiwan
Taiwan parliament to discuss stalled special defence budget next week. Taiwan’s parliament will discuss on March 6 a stalled $40 billion special defense budget proposed by President Lai Ching-te. The opposition majority has refused to review the plan and advanced less expensive alternatives that fund only some U.S. weapons purchases. Thirty-seven U.S. lawmakers wrote senior Taiwanese politicians this month expressing concern about the stalled spending. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, February 24
KMT to propose legislative oversight for advanced chip technology exports. The KMT will propose a bill requiring legislative approval for exports of advanced chip technology. The draft would keep top research and production in Taiwan and cap the scale of overseas factories. It is part of 42 priority bills announced as the Legislature reconvened from winter recess. Wang Cheng-chung and Shih Hsiu-chuan, Focus Taiwan, February 24
Political parties agree to send special defense bill to committee. Parties agreed to place the executive defense procurement bill on the March 6 agenda and send it to committee. The DPP-backed draft and TPP version will be jointly reviewed by the defense and finance committees. Speaker Han Kuo-yu announced a recess, and no reconsideration motions will be proposed. James Thompson, Chen Chun-hua and Wang Yang-yu, Focus Taiwan, February 24
India
India-U.S. will resume trade talks with more clarity on tariffs, minister says. Piyush Goyal said India will restart U.S. trade talks after clarity on tariffs. New Delhi canceled a trip to finalize an interim framework that would cut U.S. tariffs on India to 18% from 50%. Goyal also backed a calibrated approach to Chinese investment. Manoj Kumar, Shivangi Acharya, Shilpa Jamkhandikar and Alexandra Hudson, Reuters, February 24
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan managing uncertainty over oil exports. Ukraine has threatened more attacks on Russian pipeline infrastructure, imperiling Kazakhstan’s oil export revenue as prices stay low. A November sea drone strike disabled one of three offshore CPC loading facilities and cut December shipments to 3.98 million tons. Astana is renegotiating contracts for Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak and pursuing environmental claims, including a $4 billion arbitration award against Shell. Eurasianet, February 24
Turkmenistan
Turkmen leader acknowledges meeting with “prominent politicians” during Florida visit. Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov visited Florida Feb. 16-18, and TDH acknowledged the trip on Feb. 21. TDH said he met Nicklaus Companies and John Deere executives to discuss golf courses and investment ties. The statement also cited meetings with unnamed “prominent politicians” as the visit coincided with Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago stay. Eurasianet, February 25
East Asia
How to get rich in modern China. Property bust and deflation cut household wealth, incomes, and job prospects. Residential property has lost a fifth of its value since 2021, wage growth is weak, and youth unemployment hovers at 17%. A cohort called nongchaoer is gaining wealth by building state backed strategic technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics tied to five year plans. Many hold STEM degrees from elite 985 universities and cluster in Beijing’s Yizhuang, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou. Top software engineers saw 8% real wage growth per year since 2020, and DeepSeek offered pay above 1.4m yuan. Local officials supply subsidies, customers, and venture funds, while automation has cut industrial jobs. The Economist, February 24
Beijing trims export rebates. Beijing cut export tax rebates on some 250 photovoltaic items and lowered rebates on 22 lithium battery products from 9 to 6 percent, while scrapping rebates for specialty glass. The Ministry of Finance framed the change as pressure on price wars and excess capacity to push higher value production and lower emissions. The move fits 15th Five Year Plan coordination across trade, industry, fiscal policy, and outbound investment, amid deflation and trade frictions. Lower rebates can reduce surplus pressure, trim fiscal costs that reached close to CNY 2 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, and steer firms toward technology upgrades or exit. Industry groups expect fewer anti-dumping cases and firmer export prices. China Policy, February 24
Chinese Surveillance Gets the AI Treatment. Patent filings indicate that police academies, universities, state laboratories, and companies are developing AI systems that combine camera feeds, acoustic sensors, satellite data, social media posts, and worker reports to identify unrest risks and support predictive policing. A Fujian Police Academy proposal targets crowd buildups labeled “potential mass incidents” and uses machine learning to improve detection after missed events. The work links to the national AI+ initiative and a push for early warning security systems that blend human reporting with automated analysis. Some designs cite OpenAI GPT models via Azure or Meta Llama, while many reference DeepSeek, Ernie, or Spark. Risk scoring tools focus on petitioners and people without stable work, housing, or social security, with emotion detection in public offices. Alex Colville, China Media Project, February 24
Chinese firms bullish on the Gulf despite geopolitical storms. Chinese companies are treating the Gulf as a growth frontier, drawn by project scale, financing terms, logistics function, and demand beyond energy. Business planning assumes a gap between headline tensions and daily operations, with Dubai seen as a secure hub and Saudi Arabia offering large infrastructure work. Rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, conflict risks tied to Iran, and air route disruptions raise costs and complicate travel and project coordination. Firms respond with localization, local partners, flexible timelines, and contingency plans. Huawei is cited for long-term training and supplier networks in Saudi Arabia. A PwC survey of 136 firms reports close to 90 percent plan to enter or expand, and close to 40 percent report profits in the region. Jing Lin, ThinkChina, February 24
Japan’s National Security Reckoning. Japan faces a security order shaped by United States power that no longer looks durable, as Washington uses tariffs and asks allies to carry heavier defense burdens. China’s coercion around Taiwan and supply chain chokepoints, plus advances in artificial intelligence, space, and quantum technologies, raise pressure on Japan’s proximity. The war in Ukraine shows drone and sensor warfare and a risk of long wars that demand stockpiles, critical infrastructure protection, cybersecurity, and ammunition capacity. Tokyo has moved on economic security with the 2022 Economic Security Promotion Act and has pledged stronger defense, including counterstrike capability. Japan also seeks wider partnerships across the Indo-Pacific and Europe while revising its National Security Strategy. Masataka Okano, Foreign Affairs, February 24
Korea’s Demographic Crisis Has Come for Its Military. South Korea’s troop pool is shrinking as births fall, pushing debate over drafting women. Active-duty strength dropped from 560,000 in 2019 to 450,000 in 2025, below the 500,000 level linked to deterrence needs, and projections warn of 300,000 by 2040. Women are exempt from conscription but serve as volunteers, with female officers at 11 percent and a Defense Ministry goal of 15.3 percent by 2027. Proposals include opening enlisted roles to women volunteers, plus modernization with drones and AI, and better pay. Support rises among young adults, while harassment, promotion gaps, and base facilities remain barriers to integration. Hawon Jung, Foreign Policy, February 24
Mining drives Mongolia’s economy as reform momentum builds. Mongolia is set for 5.6 percent GDP growth in 2026, with mining as the main engine and coal exposure to Chinese demand a core risk. In 2025, agriculture rose 33.8 percent after harsh winters eased, construction grew over 15 percent, and manufacturing gained 8 percent, while trade and transport jobs fell as coal revenues slipped. Consumption grew 9 percent as investment contracted 5.8 percent in the first three quarters. Inflation stood at 7.5 percent in December 2025, driven by food and regulated tariff hikes, and the policy rate reached 12 percent. Exports moved toward copper and gold as coal exports fell 34.6 percent. Political protests toppled a coalition in June 2025, and a reform agenda launched in September targets taxation, state firms, and public administration. Narantuya Chuluunbat, East Asia Forum, February 24
Southeast Asia
Japan’s Growing Hard-power Profile: Implications for Southeast Asia. Japan is going from economic influence toward a deterrence-focused posture in response to China’s military build-up, North Korean missiles, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and pressure from the United States. Tokyo’s 2022 security strategies call for counterstrike capabilities and defense spending at 2 percent of GDP, with the Takaichi government moving the target to fiscal 2025 and planning an intelligence agency and looser arms export rules. Japan is expanding security links in Southeast Asia through exercises, port calls, and Official Security Assistance, including surveillance gear for the Philippines and patrol vessel support for Vietnam. Southeast Asian trust remains high, yet regional states resist anti-China blocs and view NATO outreach with caution. Hoang Thi Ha and Eugene R.L. Tan, FULCRUM, February 24
Duterte Finally Faces ICC Reckoning for His ‘War on Drugs’. ICC confirmation hearings began at the International Criminal Court against Philippine former President Rodrigo Duterte on crimes against humanity charges tied to killings and attempted killings during the drug war from 2011 to 2019. The judges will decide whether evidence merits a full trial. Duterte waived attendance and sent a letter rejecting ICC jurisdiction, denying allegations, and citing age and poor health, though the court ruled he is fit for pretrial hearings. The case is intertwined with Philippine politics after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ended an alliance and Duterte was arrested and sent to The Hague. Vice President Sara Duterte launched a 2028 bid as impeachment moves threaten her eligibility. ICC filings also named eight co-perpetrators, including senators Ronald Dela Rosa and Bong Go. Joseph Rachman, Foreign Policy, February 24
Anutin’s victory gives the green light for grey capital in Thailand. Anutin Charnvirakul’s election win ties Bhumjaithai’s rise to patronage networks linked to party founder Newin Chidchop and dealmaking around Bangkok’s Pullman King Power hotel. Loyalty to the palace and military secures coalition durability, with Pheu Thai as a junior partner and possible support from Kla Tham under Thammanat Prompao. Control of the Interior Ministry and Senate influence strengthens leverage over governors and oversight bodies, while constitutional reform faces hurdles from litigation risks, Senate resistance, and junta-era rules. Economic plans center on expanding the khon la khrueng subsidy, not structural change. Corruption concerns persist through links to scam money and prosecutions targeting Move Forward lawmakers. Greg Raymond, East Asia Forum, February 24
South Asia
Pakistan needs a new social contract with Balochistan built on trust. Coordinated assaults by the Balochistan Liberation Army struck across 10 cities, hitting police stations, government offices, banks, and civilian areas. Dozens died, and Islamabad reported the killing of close to 200 militants in retaliation. The conflict reflects grievances that predate claims of Indian backing, with uprisings after Kalat’s incorporation in 1948 and repeated since the 1950s. Disputes center on autonomy and control of gas and mineral wealth, including copper, gold, and rare earths, plus a 2025 mining law that critics say centralizes authority. Enforced disappearances and lack of accountability deepen mistrust. A new social contract calls for free provincial elections, transparent revenue sharing, investigations into abuses, and demilitarization to rebuild trust. Salman Rafi Sheikh, Nikkei Asia, February 24
Can Elections Secure Nepal’s Youth Revolution? Nepal heads to a March 5 snap election after youth-led anti-corruption protests that began in September turned deadly when security forces fired on unarmed students, killing about 77 people and prompting K.P. Sharma Oli’s resignation. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki leads an interim government that is drafting a governance road map. Corruption rankings, youth unemployment at 20.8 percent in 2024, and large-scale labor migration fuel demand for change. More than 3,400 candidates from 65 parties are contesting 275 seats, with 18.9 million eligible voters and a surge of first-time voters. New figures such as Balendra Shah and Rabi Lamichhane challenge older parties, while alliances, scandals, and populist risks test reform momentum. Bibek Bhandari, Foreign Policy, February 24