China
China has ‘massively expanded’ its nuclear arsenal, claims U.S. State Department. The U.S. accused China of rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and urged Beijing to join future arms control talks. Christopher Yeaw said New START ignored China’s buildup and the treaty expired Feb. 5. China’s UN envoy Shen Jian called the test allegation groundless and said Beijing will not race. South China Morning Post, February 23
China’s 155mm naval gun seen on test vessel, signalling boost to amphibious landing power. Photos showed a 155mm naval gun on a PLA Navy test vessel at Dalian’s Liaonan shipyard. The turret and barrel matched a Norinco design, suggesting sea trials are nearing. It would be the largest main gun in China’s modern fleet and could boost land-attack firepower. Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, February 23
Panama rules against Hong Kong operator, enabling canal port takeover welcomed by U.S. Panama ordered the takeover of Balboa and Cristobal ports at the Panama Canal’s entrances. A Supreme Court ruling voided the concession held by Panama Ports Company, a CK Hutchison unit. The White House welcomed the move as aligned with Trump’s drive to curb Chinese influence. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, February 23
Court upholds jailing of 12 activists in 'Hong Kong 47' subversion case. Hong Kong’s Court of Appeal rejected appeals by 12 activists and upheld prison terms in the “Hong Kong 47” subversion case. Judges said they conspired to win a majority and veto budgets to force the leader to resign. The court also upheld the acquittal of barrister Lawrence Lau. Jessie Pang, James Pomfret and Christine Chen, Reuters, February 23
China assessing U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling; says "fighting is harmful". China’s commerce ministry urged the United States to scrap unilateral tariff measures after the Supreme Court ruling. It warned that fighting harms both countries, and India postponed a Washington trade delegation. Trump invoked Section 122 for a global tariff that rose to 15%. Xiuhao Chen, James Pomfret, Hyunjoo Jin, Ryan Woo and Manoj Kumar, Reuters, February 23
Japan
Japan seeks cooperation with Pacific island nations over free, open seas. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi urged Pacific island nations to deepen maritime security cooperation at a Tokyo forum. He warned that attempts to change the status quo by force must never be tolerated. Japan will host visiting Pacific security officials and plans new defense cooperation memorandums with Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Kyodo News, February 23
Takaichi expected to scrutinize Japan’s discretionary work system. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to review Japan’s discretionary work system as part of work-style reform. The system lets employees set their own hours to improve efficiency, but critics say it can lead to excessive work. A labor ministry panel will discuss changes after Takaichi raised the issue in a policy speech to parliament. The Japan Times, February 23
South Korea
Nat'l Assembly set to vote on arrest motion of ex-DP lawmaker over alleged bribery. South Korea’s National Assembly will vote on Tuesday on whether to allow the arrest of independent lawmaker Kang Sun-woo over bribery allegations. Prosecutors say she took 100 million won to support Kim Kyung’s nomination as a Democratic Party candidate for the 2022 local elections. The DP will not set a party stance, and approval would send the case to court for a warrant hearing. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, February 24
South Korea and Brazil agree to expand cooperation in key minerals, trade. Lee Jae Myung and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva agreed in Seoul to elevate ties to a strategic partnership. They signed 10 memorandums on trade, key minerals and the digital economy. Lula cited rare-earth and nickel reserves and urged resuming South Korea-Mercosur trade talks. Kyu-Seok Shim and Joyce Lee, Reuters, February 23
North Korea
North Korea's ruling party re-elects Kim Jong Un general secretary. KCNA reported the Workers' Party re-elected Kim Jong Un as general secretary at the congress. KCNA credited Kim with strengthening nuclear forces as the pivot of deterrence and hardening the military. Analyst Lim Eul-chul called it an end to crisis management, while Kim's daughter Ju Ae stayed absent and senior officials were dropped. Jack Kim and Kyu-Seok Shim, Reuters, February 22
Elite unit rebuked over secrets failures. Defense ministry inspectors found Training Camp 91 left level 2 and 3 classified documents and access codes unsecured. Commanders also stored lecture materials carelessly, violating orders for double-locked safes and secure handling. The ministry warned that punishment could reach generals and ordered ongoing inspections of the Pyongyang defense corps. Jeong Seo-yeong, Daily NK, February 23
N. Korean leader's sister Kim Yo-jong promoted to party department head at congress. Kim Yo-jong was named one of 17 department directors on the party’s new central committee during the Workers’ Party congress. State media said she had been a vice department director and was promoted at the first plenary meeting of the ninth central committee. The congress is reviewing outcomes since 2021 and setting goals for the next five years. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, February 23
North Korea's Kim says country to develop economy over next 5 years. Kim Jong Un said North Korea will develop its economy over the next five years, KCNA reported. The Ninth Workers’ Party Congress is setting five-year plans by sector, including industry and agriculture. KCNA said Xi Jinping sent congratulations and Kim Yo Jong was promoted to party department director. Joyce Lee, Reuters, February 23
Thailand
Pressure rises over barcodes. A People’s Party lawyer said traceable barcodes and QR codes on ballots violate the constitution’s secret voting principle. Theera Sutheewarangkul said the Administrative Court is reviewing a petition and said secrecy breaches could make the Feb 8 election unconstitutional. Ex-election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn said missing serial numbers on ballot stubs could allow fraud and legal challenges for the Election Commission. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, February 24
Pheu Thai denies cabinet talks. Pheu Thai said no meeting has been arranged with Bhumjaithai to negotiate cabinet quotas for coalition formation. Leader Julapun Amornvivat said earlier discussions followed an invitation, but talks have not resumed as parties await Election Commission certification of results. He said reports about specific ministerial allocations were media speculation, while the party filed more than 100 election complaints. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, February 24
PP leader ready to step aside. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said he will step down as People's Party leader if a court orders him suspended, with 44 PP MPs under legal scrutiny. The party asked the Supreme Court not to suspend 10 MPs while the case proceeds. He said any leadership change requires a party assembly vote and pledged Orange Volunteers networks in 75,000 villages. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, February 24
Cambodia
Cambodia demands Thais free detained fishers. Cambodia protested after the Thai navy detained three Cambodian fishers and seized their boat on Feb. 22. The foreign ministry said the arrest was within Cambodia’s waters, about 7.2 nautical miles from Koh Yor beach in Koh Kong. It demanded their release and urged Thailand to stop unauthorized patrols and law enforcement in Cambodian seas. Meng Seavmey, Cambodianess, February 23
Philippines
Duterte was 'pivotal' in murder of thousands, ICC prosecutors say. ICC prosecutors said Rodrigo Duterte was pivotal in the drug war killings and urged judges to send the case to trial. They charged him with three counts of murder as crimes against humanity and cited death squads targeting alleged drug users. Lawyer Nicholas Kaufman called it politically motivated and said Duterte maintains innocence. Bart Meijer and Bart Biesemans, Reuters, February 23
'Welcome to CHINA' greets Philippine officials on trip to disputed South China Sea. As a coast guard plane approached Thitu Island, passengers received a roaming alert reading “Welcome to CHINA.” Hontiveros and Tarriela told residents Pag-asa is Philippine territory as Chinese vessels lingered offshore. Fishermen said Chinese coast guard ships chase them from waters near Subi Reef, and China says its actions are lawful. Karen Lema, Reuters, February 23
Duterte collapsed twice while in detention – lawyer. Lawyer Nicholas Kaufman said Duterte collapsed twice in detention at The Hague and has short-term memory loss. He said medical reports cite age-related neurological problems and back a renewed interim release request. The ICC began hearings on Monday to decide if Duterte faces trial for crimes against humanity over the drug war. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, February 23
Impeach complaints vs VP Duterte referred to House justice panel. The House referred four impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte to the Committee on Justice. The fourth complaint was filed by Nathaniel Cabrera and endorsed by Reps. Paolo Ortega V and Bienvenido Abante Jr. Spokesman Michael Poa said Duterte’s camp is ready to answer fund misuse allegations through constitutional processes. Reina C. Tolentino, The Manila Times, February 23
Indonesia
Indonesia's government spending jumps 26% in January. Indonesia posted a 54.6 trillion rupiah January deficit, or 0.21% of GDP, as spending jumped 26%. Officials linked the surge to Prabowo Subianto’s free meals programme, which cost 19.5 trillion rupiah and reached 60.24 million recipients. The ministry plans 809 trillion rupiah in first-quarter spending and forecast 5.5% to 6% growth. Gayatri Suroyo, Ananda Teresia and Fransiska Nangoy, Reuters, February 23
Indonesia secures export access to Türkiye, China. Indonesia’s marine affairs ministry said agreements with Türkiye and China granted export approval numbers to 57 fish processing units. Quality agency head Ishartini said the units hold HACCP certificates and meet sanitation and safety rules. Fifty-two of 56 units proposed to Türkiye were approved, and all five proposed to China cleared customs registration. ANTARA News, February 23
Kazakhstan
World Bank to invest in rail connectivity, logistics in Kazakhstan. World Bank approves $846 million guarantee to mobilize $1.41 billion for a major rail project in Kazakhstan. A 322.3-km Mointy-Kyzylzhar line will cut the corridor by 149 km and allow double-stack containers. Technical assistance targets KTZ tariff and financing reforms and IPO preparation, and the project is expected to triple freight and halve transit times by 2030. The Astana Times, February 23
East Asia
What to Watch at China’s Two Sessions in 2026. China’s Two Sessions run from March 4 to March 11, bringing National People’s Congress delegates and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference members to Beijing to set targets and approve the 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030. The Government Work Report from Premier Li Qiang on March 5 should set GDP growth between 4.5% and 5%, a fiscal deficit ratio of 4% of GDP, a CPI goal of 2%, and an urban jobless ceiling of 5.5%. Policy themes include domestic demand, innovation, reform, green transition, social welfare, and risk control. The plan can push technology sovereignty in AI, manufacturing, energy, and materials, raise household consumption share, and curb price-war competition. New laws and delegate absences can signal discipline cases. Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering, Asia Society, February 23
The Supreme Court’s Tariff Decision Could Affect Trump’s China Negotiations. Supreme Court limits tariff use under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which underpinned Trump’s ten percent fentanyl emergency tariffs on Chinese imports and reciprocal tariffs on many partners. Importers can pursue refunds in the U.S. Court of International Trade for duties tied to IEEPA. Core China tariffs remain through Section 301, Section 232, and anti-dumping and countervailing duties, including a 205 percent rate on active anode materials for batteries. The ruling narrows escalation before a Trump-Xi summit and strengthens Beijing’s claim that U.S. tariff threats face constitutional limits. The administration seeks leverage through a 15 percent Section 122 global tariff with a 150-day limit, new Section 301 investigations, expanded Section 232 actions, and a possible Section 338 tool that has no record of use. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Council on Foreign Relations, February 24
The rotten tail of China’s property bust. Unfinished presold apartments, known as lanweilou, leave buyers in empty complexes with missing utilities and weak services. Developers sold homes before construction to finance projects, and cash flows collapsed when the market turned in 2021. Nomura estimated 20 million presold homes unfinished in 2023, tying 17 trillion yuan of household wealth to stalled sites, a drag above 10% of GDP. The 2022 “guaranteed delivery” program whitelists projects and presses banks to lend, with approvals over 7 trillion yuan. Buyers keep paying mortgages, face losses from price falls, and courts reject refund suits to prevent mass exits. Officials spread losses across households, banks, and local governments. The Economist, February 23
The Outlook for the Chinese Economy in 2026. China enters the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan with a property slump, weak domestic demand, and geopolitical uncertainty shaping growth targets. Provincial congress targets for 2026 imply a GDP-weighted national range of 4.85 to 5.27 percent, which supports a national target in the 5 percent range. Provincial leaders use these targets as performance metrics, so the figures track local conditions and past achievement rates. Output depends on aggregate demand in a surplus economy, so harvests, embargoes, or tariff cuts can turn results. With rising target achievement across provinces and GDP per capita of US$14,197, growth in the 5 percent range appears feasible for 2026. Lawrence Lau and Yanyan Xiong, CHINA US Focus, February 23
What the History of China-Russia Relations May Tell Us About Their Future. China’s leaders treat history as a guide for foreign policy, with the “century of humiliation” shaping views of sovereignty and unequal partnerships. Russia enters that narrative through the Treaties of Aigun and Peking, which transferred Manchurian territory and enabled the founding of Vladivostok. Soviet pledges in the 1919 Karakhan Manifesto faded in the 1920 revision, reinforcing distrust of promises framed in ideology. The Sino-Soviet split and 1969 Ussuri River clashes showed that shared doctrine cannot hold when interests diverge. Cooperation with Moscow supports balancing against the United States, but it rests on hedging and caution, reinforced by Russia’s dependence after the war in Ukraine. Konrad Szatters, China Observers, February 23
How China builds influence, one parliament at a time. China funds and builds parliamentary complexes and presidential palaces across the Global South as grants or interest-free loans, including a US$32 million ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja set to open in March 2026. Public information lists projects in 15 African states, with cases in Tajikistan and Vanuatu. Scholars link the program to aid that supplied new states with administrative institutions and to Beijing’s goal of long-term political access. Dependence can follow through Chinese materials, technology, and maintenance contracts that keep Chinese firms on site and sustain ties with ruling and opposition elites. Residents praise new landmarks, while critics question quality, local control, and self-funding. Reports raise surveillance claims, which China and the African Union reject. Lim Zhan Ting, ThinkChina, February 23
What lessons can be learned from Japan’s critical minerals strategy? The 2010 halt of rare earth shipments from China pushed Japan to treat supply chains as a security issue. Japan cut rare earth import dependence on China from 85 percent in 2009 to 58 percent in 2020 by using magnets with lower dysprosium needs and by sourcing neodymium from the United States and Australia. Manufacturers, led by autos, diversified suppliers and held inventories. Middle and heavy rare earths remain exposed because mining and refining sit in a few places, and processing carries high costs tied to health and environmental safeguards. Mitigation options include stockpiles, new supply, substitutes, recycling, and seabed resources near Minami-torishima. Partnerships need policy tools that move private firms, with price floors for rare metals and purchase guarantees for rare earths. Eiki Tagami and Mireya Solís, Brookings, February 23
Southeast Asia
Thailand’s economy faces a human capital problem. Thailand’s real GDP per capita rose 2.2 percent in 2025, with a weaker outlook for 2026 after decades of slowdown since the 1997 to 1999 Asian financial crisis. Business investment has fallen, and gross fixed capital formation has stayed at half of its pre-crisis share as firms expect low returns. Household debt limits consumption, and birth rates drive a slight population decline, with migrant labor filling part of the gap. A stronger baht, Chinese import competition, and Trump’s 2025 tariffs add pressure. Low productivity remains the key constraint, while policy favors stimulus over reform. Escaping the middle-income trap requires public investment in human capital, with curriculum reform and higher-quality primary and secondary education. Peter Warr, East Asia Forum, February 23
Indonesian Islamic Groups Support Prabowo’s Gambit of Joining the Board of Peace, But at What Cost? Prabowo Subianto turned Indonesia’s Palestine policy by joining U.S. President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza ceasefire implementation and reconstruction, alongside Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, and Saudi Arabia, as the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and France declined. Critics cite the absence of Palestinian representatives, U.S. dominance, and a US$1 billion fee for permanent membership amid fiscal strain. After a February 3, 2026 briefing at the State Palace, Nahdlatul Ulama, Muhammadiyah, and Indonesian Ulema Council leaders issued a joint endorsement, framing participation as leverage for a two-state solution and a counterweight to Western interests. Appointments, corruption cases, and presidential pardons heighten reliance of religious elites and narrow space for dissent. Ary Hermawan and Iim Halimatusa’diyah, FULCRUM, February 24
South Asia
Reforms stall in AKD’s Sri Lanka. Eighteen months into office, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the National People’s Power coalition pursue stability and an anti-corruption drive while keeping IMF-backed reforms. Pluralism and rejection of ethnoreligious politics have built trust with Tamil and Muslim voters. Inexperience, bureaucratic resistance, and missteps have cut support, reinforced by May 2025 local election results and fights over council control and the auditor general post. Key pledges remain unmet, including repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act, revision of the Online Safety Act, Provincial Council elections, and disclosure on the 2019 Easter bombings and attacks on journalists. Cyclone Ditwah damage, 2028 debt repayments, and signs of democratic backsliding raise risks of funding loss and a return of ethnonationalist forces. Neil DeVotta, East Asia Forum, February 23