Asia Daily: February 21, 2025
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan settle border dispute that sparked deadly clashes. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan finalized an agreement demarcating over 970 km (600 miles) of their shared border, resolving a long-standing dispute that led to deadly clashes. Skirmishes in 2022 killed over 100 people and displaced 140,000 residents. The deal, signed by top security officials, now awaits presidential approval. Experts warn that public opposition may arise once the full details are disclosed. Aigerim Turgunbayeva and Ron Popeski, Reuters, February 21
PLA steps up Taiwan military patrols over Lunar New Year holiday. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased military activity near Taiwan during the 15-day Lunar New Year period, deploying an average of 13 aircraft and six navy vessels daily—up from nine aircraft a year earlier. Over 70% of the aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line. The PLA framed the drills as routine but used social media to promote “reunification” narratives. Analysts say Beijing is normalizing heightened military pressure on Taipei. Hayley Wong, South China Morning Post, February 22
N. Korea threatens to use 'strategic means' in response to S. Korea-U.S. air drills. North Korea warned it will mobilize “strategic means” to counter U.S. military threats after Seoul and Washington conducted joint air drills involving a B-1B bomber. Pyongyang accused the Trump administration of escalating tensions and justified its nuclear buildup as a necessary deterrent. The North has repeatedly condemned U.S.-South Korea exercises as invasion rehearsals. Kim Soo-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, February 22
50 Chinese ships swarm at Kalayaan. A Philippine surveillance flight spotted over 50 Chinese maritime militia vessels and a China Coast Guard ship near Pag-asa Island in the Kalayaan Island Group. The Philippine Coast Guard vowed to continue patrols despite increasing tensions. Meanwhile, Beijing accused the Philippines of sending aircraft into its claimed airspace over the Spratly Islands. The U.S. and New Zealand condemned recent Chinese military actions in the region as unsafe. Franco Jose C. Baroña and Javier Joe Ismael, The Manila Times, February 22
Japan ruling bloc, small opposition party near deal to pass budget. Japan’s ruling coalition and the Japan Innovation Party reached a policy agreement ensuring budget approval before April. Concessions include eliminating income thresholds for free high school tuition, increasing private school subsidies to ¥457,000 ($3,060) by 2026, and curbing medical spending by ¥4 trillion annually. The deal stabilizes Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government, though opposition parties demand further revisions. Kyodo News, February 21
China issued ‘disconcerting’ warning of live-fire exercises to planes flying above, Australia says. Three commercial flights en route from Sydney to New Zealand were forced to divert after Chinese warships unexpectedly announced a live-fire drill in international waters. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles criticized Beijing for failing to provide advance notice, calling the situation “very disconcerting.” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed no immediate danger, while Chinese officials defended the exercise as compliant with international law. Rod McGuirk and Charlotte Graham-McLay, AP News, February 21
Protesters extend ‘Dark Indonesia’ rally against Prabowo’s policies. Hundreds of students and activists continued protests against President Prabowo Subianto’s policies, opposing $19 billion in budget cuts that they say harm education and public welfare. Demonstrators, dressed in black, rallied near the presidential palace and in Surabaya, staging performances symbolizing poverty. Protesters also criticized military expansion into civilian roles and the lack of subsidized cooking gas. Yuddy Cahya Budiman, Ananda Teresia and Stanley Widianto, Reuters, February 21
Trump orders new curbs on Chinese investments in strategic areas. U.S. President Donald Trump signed a directive restricting investments from China, Hong Kong, and Macau in critical sectors such as technology, healthcare, energy, and agriculture. The order expands the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) authority to block China-affiliated purchases of farmland, ports, and key infrastructure. Trump also called for reviewing the 1984 U.S.-China tax treaty to reduce incentives for American capital flowing into China. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, February 22
China joins water sample analysis at Japan nuclear plant for 1st time. The International Atomic Energy Agency collected treated radioactive water samples from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, with China participating for the first time. The move follows an agreement between Tokyo and Beijing, aiming to ease tensions and facilitate China’s resumption of Japanese seafood imports. Analysts from South Korea, Switzerland, and France also joined the process. China previously opposed Japan’s water release, which began in August 2023. Kyodo News, February 21
Police book Yoon on suspicion of obstructing execution of warrant to detain him. South Korean police have charged impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol with obstructing his own detention by ordering the Presidential Security Service to block investigators in early January. Authorities obtained messages between Yoon and a security official directing resistance against his arrest. Investigators ultimately detained him on Jan. 15. Yoon remains on trial for insurrection, the only charge exempt from presidential immunity. Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, February 21
Laos, Thailand sign four joint agreements to strengthen bilateral ties. Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra agreed to expand economic cooperation, focusing on trade, investment, and infrastructure. Key projects include the fifth Lao-Thai Friendship Bridge, a railway bridge, and the Route 12 enhancement to improve regional trade. The nations also pledged collaboration on electricity grid interconnection, agriculture, and fuel imports. Souliyasone Ngotsyoudom, The Laotian Times, February 21
Top leaders of Vietnamese, Cambodian parties meet in HCM City. Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) chief To Lam and Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) leader Hun Sen reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening political and economic ties. Meeting in Ho Chi Minh City, they pledged to enhance cooperation in security, trade, education, and tourism. Hun Sen praised Vietnam’s administrative reforms as a model for Cambodia. Prime Ministers Pham Minh Chinh and Hun Manet also endorsed efforts to boost regional economic integration. Vietnam News, February 21
The case for carbon taxes in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia faces severe climate challenges, with extreme weather affecting its populations and economies. Growing public support for carbon taxes presents an opportunity for governments to implement effective carbon pricing policies to reduce emissions while addressing economic and social concerns. Surveys indicate strong support for national carbon taxes across the region. Carbon taxes compel polluters to internalize the cost of emissions, encouraging a move to low-carbon technologies. Singapore’s phased approach illustrates how gradual implementation can mitigate economic impact. Revenue redistribution, targeted public spending, and effective communication are crucial for public acceptance. As the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism looms, Southeast Asian nations must adopt carbon pricing to maintain trade competitiveness. Subhramit Das, East Asia Forum, February 22
Timor-Leste looks to ASEAN for membership and modernisation. Timor-Leste seeks ASEAN membership in 2025, aiming to accelerate its development and strengthen regional ties amid growing connections with China. While the nation has made strides in political stability, democracy, infrastructure, and education, challenges persist, including high poverty rates, economic dependence on oil, and underdeveloped social systems. ASEAN’s successful transformation through strategic partnerships and non-aligned foreign policy offers a model for Timor-Leste to navigate geopolitical influences while increasing growth. Strengthening institutions and legal frameworks will be crucial for leveraging economic opportunities and securing sustainable development. Zhai Kun, East Asia Forum, February 21
DeepRethink: Framing the U.S.-China AI Race as Chip Problem is not Enough. The U.S.-China AI rivalry extends beyond semiconductor access to include technology diffusion, algorithmic efficiency, and open-source innovation. Focusing solely on export controls for training chips is insufficient; emphasis should move to inference chips crucial for large-scale AI deployment. Open-source AI development could provide a competitive edge, but balancing open collaboration with proprietary advancements is essential. Jianyin Roachell, China US Focus, February 21
Trump 2.0’s Profound Policy Shifts. Donald Trump’s second presidency is reshaping U.S. allies’ political landscapes and strategic priorities, prompting moves toward greater strategic autonomy. Internal political shifts are evident in Canada, Germany, the UK, and Japan, driven by economic competitiveness concerns. Allies are adopting more pragmatic and balanced policies toward China while navigating U.S. pressure. Long-term, this trend could redefine international relations and economic strategies. Zhang Yun, China US Focus, February 21
Trump Is Making Taiwan More Vulnerable. Donald Trump’s approach to territorial expansion undermines international norms on border integrity, increasing the risk of Chinese assertiveness toward Taiwan. His focus on U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere may embolden China to assert its own regional dominance. Additionally, Trump's pursuit of a comprehensive economic deal with China raises concerns about potential concessions affecting Taiwan's security. David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations, February 21
Midterm Outlooks: Digital Proxy Warfare in the Philippines. The 2025 Philippine midterm elections highlight a digital proxy war between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte. Both political families use online narrative management and troll armies to influence public opinion. This digital strategy, originating in the Philippines, has influenced political campaigns across Southeast Asia. The evolving information space includes advanced tactics like deepfakes and AI-driven disinformation. Japhet Quitzon, CSIS, February 21
An Inside View into Drone Warfare in Myanmar. The Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) uses improvised drones in Myanmar’s civil war, leveraging local manufacturing, 3D printing, and online resources. These drones are crucial for maintaining territory against the junta’s air superiority. Despite power shortages and communication challenges, tech-savvy young fighters develop surveillance and combat drones. They face countermeasures like jammers but continue to innovate. Antonio Graceffo, Geopolitical Monitor, February 21
The Nansei Islands: Japan’s Frontline in a Taiwan Emergency. Japan is increasing its military presence in the Nansei Islands to counter growing Chinese military activity, particularly near Taiwan. This strategic area, including Okinawa, is critical for Japan-U.S. defense cooperation. Increased Chinese air and naval operations, along with joint exercises with Russia, are intensifying security challenges. Japan's response includes upgrading air defense systems and strengthening military infrastructure. Takahashi Kosuke, The Diplomat, February 21
US Suspension of Foreign Aid: Will China Fill the Void? The U.S. halt on foreign aid raises questions about China's ability to fill the gap in Southeast Asia. China prioritizes loans and hard infrastructure over grants and human capital development, contrasting with the U.S. focus on soft infrastructure and humanitarian aid. While China has increased development cooperation, its loan-heavy model and declining global financing suggest limitations in fully replacing U.S. aid. Hoang Thi Ha and Cha Hae Won, Fulcrum, February 21