Asia Daily: February 19, 2025
South Korea’s Yoon set to attend his first criminal trial hearing. Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol appeared at the Seoul Central District Court for the first hearing in his criminal trial on insurrection charges. Prosecutors allege Yoon’s brief martial law declaration aimed to suppress political and media activity. His defense claims it was only a warning. The court will also review the legality of his detention. Yoon’s impeachment trial in the Constitutional Court is ongoing. Hyunsu Yim, Reuters, February 19
US to axe China-based diplomats to cut size of mission by 10%—sources. The US will downsize its diplomatic mission in China by up to 10%, affecting embassies in Beijing and consulates in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Shenyang, and Hong Kong. The move follows President Donald Trump’s executive order to overhaul the foreign service, aligning with his “America First” agenda. Layoffs are expected to begin this week, with further cuts across other diplomatic posts. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, February 20
Australia, Papua New Guinea begin talks on full defence treaty. Australia and Papua New Guinea have launched negotiations for a comprehensive defence treaty aimed at enhancing military cooperation and interoperability. Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said the agreement would build on existing defence ties, enabling deeper integration between their armed forces. Papua New Guinea Defence Minister Billy Joseph emphasized the countries' close relationship amid growing Chinese influence in the Pacific. Alasdair Pal, Reuters, February 19
Taiwan’s marine corps to rebuild brigade with modern coastal mission. Taiwan is restructuring its marine corps to improve coastal strike capabilities amid growing pressure from the People’s Liberation Army. The new 77th Brigade, modeled after the U.S. Marine Littoral Regiment, will be reactivated with long-range precision weapons, including HIMARS and Harpoon missiles. Meanwhile, the 66th Brigade has been reassigned to Taipei’s defense, replacing tanks with drone warfare units. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, February 19
Request for judicial review plan of charter bills considered. Thailand’s Parliament President Wan Muhamad Noor Matha will meet with government, opposition, and Senate whips to discuss whether a judicial review request on constitutional amendment bills should be prioritized. The Pheu Thai Party seeks a Constitutional Court ruling on whether a full charter rewrite can proceed without a referendum. The motion follows recent joint session collapses over quorum issues. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, February 20
Japan asks Taliban to respect human rights during talks in Tokyo. Japanese Foreign Ministry official Toshihide Ando urged the Taliban to uphold human rights, particularly women’s rights, during an informal meeting in Tokyo. Taliban Deputy Minister of Economy Latif Nazari expressed Afghanistan’s desire for stronger ties and encouraged Japanese investment. The delegation, on its first known visit since 2021, arrived at the invitation of the Nippon Foundation. Japan does not officially recognize the Taliban government. Kyodo News, February 19
U.S. condemns 'dangerous' maneuvers by Chinese navy in South China Sea. The United States criticized the Chinese navy for endangering a Philippine aircraft patrolling Scarborough Shoal, calling the helicopter's actions “dangerous.” The Philippines plans to file a diplomatic protest, while China claims Manila's aircraft illegally entered its airspace. The incident adds to tensions over disputed waters, where China continues to assert broad territorial claims despite a 2016 ruling invalidating them. Karen Lema, Reuters, February 19
Kazakhstan introduces new visa categories to attract foreign professionals. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry unveiled three new visa types: the Neo Nomad Visa for remote workers, the Digital Nomad Visa for freelancers and IT specialists, and the Residence Visa for professionals in medicine, science, and education. Deputy Foreign Minister Roman Vassilenko said these policies aim to boost foreign investment and talent inflows. Kazakhstan now offers visa-free entry to citizens from over 80 countries and operates 700 international flights weekly. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, February 19
Taiwan lists Laos among high-risk travel destinations due to fraud rings. Taiwan’s Ministry of Interior designated Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Cambodia as high-risk destinations due to their involvement in fraudulent activities, including scam job offers and illegal call centers targeting Taiwanese nationals. Taiwanese authorities will issue travel warnings on airplane tickets and intensify monitoring at airports. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, February 19.
U.S. must update its wavelength policies or be left behind by China, Congress hears. Lawmakers and analysts warned that China’s control over critical radio frequencies could surpass U.S. military and technological capabilities. At a Senate Commerce Committee hearing, Senator Ted Cruz pushed for reviving expired FCC auction authority to reallocate spectrum, while others cautioned against prioritizing revenue over national security. Experts highlighted China’s military-civil fusion strategy, which allows rapid spectrum shifts, giving it an edge in 5G and AI development. Igor Patrick, South China Morning Post, February 19
China opposes Vietnam’s building work on disputed reef in South China Sea. China’s Foreign Ministry condemned Vietnam’s land reclamation on Barque Canada Reef, a contested area in the Spratly Islands, calling it an “illegal occupation.” A Chinese study found that Vietnam has expanded the reef tenfold since 2022 and dredged a 299-meter-wide channel capable of berthing warships. Vietnam claims sovereignty over the area and continues construction despite Beijing’s objections. Liz Lee and Ryan Woo, Reuters, February 19
TNLA: Peace talks with Myanmar junta have failed. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) announced that negotiations with Myanmar’s military in Kunming, China, ended without an agreement. The TNLA requested a ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid, but junta airstrikes continued in TNLA-controlled areas. China’s envoy Deng Xijun suspended talks and urged new proposals for a future meeting. The TNLA remains a key force in the Brotherhood Alliance, which controls northern Shan State and key trade routes with China. The Irrawaddy, February 19
S. Korea to provide protection in case captured N. Korean soldiers want to come to South. South Korea has pledged to protect and support any North Korean soldiers captured in Ukraine if they seek asylum in the South. The announcement follows reports that one of two captured North Korean troops expressed his intent to defect. Seoul emphasized that it considers North Koreans its citizens and will act in accordance with international law. The government is in discussions with Kyiv regarding the matter. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, February 19
Philippines VP Duterte challenges impeachment before Supreme Court. Vice President Sara Duterte has petitioned the Supreme Court to nullify her impeachment, arguing that the lower house violated constitutional safeguards by filing multiple complaints within a year. Duterte, impeached on Feb. 5 over budget anomalies and alleged threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., calls the case politically motivated. House leaders dismissed her legal move as a “desperate” attempt to evade accountability. The Senate trial is expected to begin in June. Karen Lema, Reuters, February 19
China and U.S. need to find a way to ‘get along’, Wang Yi tells American business groups. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Washington and Beijing to stabilize ties and find common ground during a meeting with American business leaders in New York. Wang emphasized economic cooperation and mutual respect while addressing concerns over escalating trade tensions. Wang’s remarks come amid new U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory trade measures. Holly Chik, South China Morning Post, February 19
Islamic Development Bank funds $299M in Uzbek education and infrastructure. Uzbekistan signed agreements with the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) worth $299 million to improve education and road infrastructure. The $160.25 million education project will build 58 modern schools, expand classrooms, and enhance teacher training. The $138.8 million road upgrade will expand the A373 highway, cutting travel time between Tashkent and Osh by half and reducing accidents by 40%. These projects align with Uzbekistan’s long-term development goals. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, February 18
Choppy waters continue in the South China Sea. China escalated its aggression in the South China Sea throughout 2024, targeting Philippine vessels with intimidation tactics, including dangerous maneuvers, ramming, and armed confrontations. A peak occurred on June 17 when Chinese forces attacked a Philippine resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal, prompting a provisional agreement in July to prevent future clashes. However, tensions remained high, particularly at Sabina and Scarborough Shoals, where China deployed hundreds of vessels and conducted military patrols. In response, the Philippines introduced the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept and a $35 billion military modernization program while strengthening security ties with the United States, Australia, and Japan. Meanwhile, Vietnam expanded infrastructure in the Spratly Islands with little pushback from China. Efforts to establish a South China Sea Code of Conduct stalled due to ASEAN divisions, particularly opposition from Cambodia and Laos. Looking ahead, China is expected to continue asserting control, the Philippines will reinforce its defence measures, and ASEAN negotiations will remain sluggish. Carlyle Thayer, East Asia Forum, February 19
Storm clouds gather over ASEAN as it enters 2025. ASEAN faces persistent challenges in 2025, with Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, South China Sea disputes, and escalating US-China rivalry shaping the region. The Myanmar junta's push for elections, backed by Chinese military aid, risks prolonging the civil war and worsening the refugee crisis. Meanwhile, tensions in the South China Sea remain high, particularly between China and the Philippines, as Manila strengthens defense ties and modernizes its military, drawing Beijing’s ire. ASEAN’s efforts to establish a Code of Conduct continue to stall due to distrust among claimants. The return of Donald Trump to the White House introduces economic uncertainty, as his administration may impose tariffs on ASEAN exports, targeting trade surpluses. However, Malaysia’s ASEAN Chairmanship offers a potential diplomatic breakthrough, with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim seeking to mediate the Myanmar crisis and bridge gaps in South China Sea negotiations. Additionally, ASEAN’s growing ties with BRICS provide an alternative economic counterweight to Western-led trade policies. ASEAN’s ability to navigate these geopolitical complexities will determine its relevance in an increasingly polarized world. Abdul Rahman Yaacob, East Asia Forum, February 20
North Korea's Military Intervention in Kursk: A High Casualty Learning Curve. In October 2024, North Korea deployed approximately 11,000 troops to Russia's Kursk region to support operations against Ukraine. Within three months, these forces experienced a 40% casualty rate, with an estimated 1,000 soldiers killed and 3,000 severely wounded, leading to their noticeable absence from the front lines by mid-January 2025. Factors contributing to these heavy losses include unfamiliarity with high-intensity combat, technological deficiencies, and morale issues. Despite these setbacks, North Korea's alliance with Russia is expected to strengthen, potentially improving Pyongyang's conventional military capabilities through Russian assistance. Samuel Ramani, 38 North, February 19
From India to Russia and Back: Escaping the Russian Army. At least 12 Indian men have died fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine. In interviews, Indians share their stories of recruitment, fighting, and – in some cases – a lucky escape back home. In December 2023, seven Indian men gathered in Chennai, having been lured by agents with promises of lucrative jobs in Russia. Upon arrival, their passports were confiscated, and they were coerced into joining the Russian military to fight in Ukraine. Facing harsh conditions and high casualties, some managed to escape and return to India, while others perished on the battlefield. This situation shows that human trafficking networks exploit vulnerable individuals seeking employment abroad. The Indian government is working to repatriate those affected and has urged Russia to cease such recruitment practices. Despite these incidents, India maintains strong economic ties with Russia and has abstained from condemning the invasion of Ukraine. The lure of higher wages and demand for labor in Russia, combined with economic struggles in South Asia, have propelled this phenomenon. James Beardsworth, The Diplomat, February 19
Cook Islands' China Shock: A 'Frog in the Pot' Moment for Pacific Security. The Cook Islands' recent Action Plan for Comprehensive Strategic Partnership 2025-2030 with China has implications for Pacific security, particularly concerning New Zealand, the United States, and Australia. This agreement, signed by Prime Minister Mark Brown, paves the way for dual-use infrastructure facilities in the Cook Islands, a nation with strategic geography, abundant mineral resources, and a vast maritime territory of 2.2 million square kilometers. Despite strong opposition from within the Cook Islands and from its closest partner, New Zealand, the deal was finalized, showing China's growing influence in the region. The Cook Islands, part of the Realm of New Zealand, has been criticized for issues such as money laundering and facilitating illicit activities. This development serves as a wake-up call for New Zealand and its allies, who have previously encouraged China's regional involvement without fully anticipating the strategic consequences. Anne-Marie Brady, The Diplomat, February 18
Southeast Asia must Prepare for Trump's 'Everything's on the Table' Approach to Trade. President Donald Trump's recent trade policies have primarily targeted nations like Mexico, Canada, and China, but Southeast Asian countries are likely to face similar scrutiny due to their significant trade surpluses with the United States. Vietnam, with a $124 billion surplus, is particularly vulnerable. Trump's strategy involves leveraging U.S. market access to extract concessions on a wide range of issues, extending beyond traditional trade concerns. This approach could impact Southeast Asian nations, especially those with strong economic ties to China, as they may be perceived as facilitating China's circumvention of U.S. technology restrictions. Additionally, U.S. security commitments in the region, such as to the Philippines amid South China Sea tensions, might prompt demands for increased defense spending or other concessions. Regional leaders should anticipate U.S. pressure on various fronts and prepare for potential trade actions that could arise from this expansive policy stance. Stephen Olson, Fulcrum, February 20
'Airpocalypse' Now: Vietnam at Crossroads of Progress and Pollution. In early 2025, Hanoi was ranked as the world's most polluted city, surpassing Delhi and Lahore. This severe air quality deterioration, evident since late 2024, shows the environmental costs of Vietnam's rapid economic growth. Annually, air pollution causes over 70,000 deaths in the country and could reduce GDP by up to 7%, equating to approximately US$14 billion. The primary pollution sources include vehicular emissions, industrial activities, coal-fired power plants, agricultural residue burning, and inadequate waste management. Despite government pledges for carbon neutrality by 2050 and initiatives to promote electric vehicles and public transportation, challenges persist due to economic dependencies and enforcement issues. Addressing this crisis requires comprehensive strategies encompassing policy reforms, technological innovations, and regional cooperation to balance development with environmental sustainability. Nguyen Khac Giang, Fulcrum, February 19