Asia Daily: February 19, 2024
News
Munich Security Conference: China's Wang Yi defends ties with Russia, warns West on Taiwan 'red line'. At the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi defended China's relationship with Russia and issued a warning against crossing Taiwan's "red line." Wang's speech emphasized China's role as a stabilizing force in a turbulent world and dismissed calls for China to constrain Russia over Ukraine. This stance underscores the deepening geopolitical rifts and China's firm position on its sovereign claims. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, February 17
U.S. backs Japan's bid to engage with North Korea: senior diplomat. The United States has expressed support for Japan's efforts to engage North Korea in dialogue, following a statement from Kim Jong Un's sister not ruling out a visit by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Pyongyang. This diplomatic endorsement aims to address the longstanding issue of abductions by North Korea, highlighting a collaborative approach towards resolving tensions in the region. Kyodo News, February 16
Chinese village construction in disputed zone outpaces China-Bhutan border talks. China's rapid expansion of villages in disputed territories with Bhutan continues to outpace diplomatic discussions. At least three new villages have been developed, serving dual roles in poverty alleviation and national security. This development has raised concerns amid ongoing China-Bhutan border negotiations, potentially affecting regional dynamics and the longstanding boundary dispute. Jack Lau, South China Morning Post, February 18
S. Korea, U.S., Japan call for N. Korea to take 'immediate' steps to end 'all' human rights abuses. South Korea, the United States, and Japan have jointly urged North Korea to immediately address human rights violations, marking the 10th anniversary of a critical U.N. report. They emphasized North Korea's continued repression and its link to weapons programs, advocating for engagement with U.N. human rights experts. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, February 17
Eyeing China, senior US lawmaker vows to back funding for Pacific islands. To counter China's influence, the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee's Republican chairman plans to support funding for Pacific Island allies in upcoming security aid legislation. This commitment aims to bolster economic assistance and secure exclusive military access to strategic Pacific areas. The initiative reflects a strategic push to strengthen ties with nations in China's interest sphere, highlighting U.S. efforts to maintain influence in the region. Patricia Zengerle, Reuters, February 16
Japan defense minister meets Okinawa governor over U.S. base transfer. Japan's Defense Minister Minoru Kihara discussed the U.S. base transfer with Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki, aiming for understanding despite local objections. The relocation of U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to Henoko is deemed vital for defense and reducing risks associated with its current location. The move has faced long-standing opposition from Okinawa residents, reflecting broader concerns about U.S. military presence and local impacts. Kyodo News, February 17
Laos, Japan Join Forces to Boost Coffee Production. Laos and Japan have initiated a project to enhance coffee production in Luang Prabang, aiming to improve both the quantity and quality of coffee for export to Japan. This collaboration involves the Japanese government, the UN World Food Programme, and private entities, focusing on empowering local farmers through improved cultivation techniques and increased nutrition awareness. Jonathan Meadley, The Laotian Times, February 16
Central Asia: China in driver's seat of foreign car sales market. China has become the dominant force in Central Asia's foreign car sales, surpassing competitors with significant exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan imported over 45,984 cars, primarily new, from China in 2023, making it a leading source of vehicles. Similarly, Uzbekistan, aiming to be a regional hub for electric vehicle manufacturing, saw about 80% of its car imports coming from China. These developments underscore China's growing influence in Central Asia's automotive market. Eurasianet, February 16
PM Srettha confirms Thaksin's parole is legal. Thailand's Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has affirmed the legality of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's parole. This announcement follows Thaksin's return to Thailand and his subsequent hospitalization. The government insists the parole follows legal and justice system norms, amidst widespread speculation about its political implications. Bangkok Post, February 18
Mainland China coastguard to mount regular patrols where 2 fishermen died after Taiwan chase. Following the tragic deaths of two Chinese fishermen off Quemoy, the Mainland China coastguard has pledged regular patrols in the area to safeguard fishermen's lives and property. This move, supported by Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office, aims to maintain order in disputed waters and has sparked controversy over maritime boundaries and cross-strait relations. Vanessa Cai, South China Morning Post, February 18
Vietnamese, Russian Deputy PMs discuss measures to promote cooperation. Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Trần Hồng Hà and his Russian counterpart discussed enhancing bilateral ties in various areas, continuing the development of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. They aimed to implement agreements from senior leaders' visits and improve trade and investment relations, especially in fields like oil and gas and science-technology. Vietnam News, February 16
After gains against Modi, India’s Congress party slips before election. The Congress party in India, after showing potential to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi by winning in Karnataka and leading in opinion polls for other states, has faced setbacks in recent state assembly elections. With the national elections approaching, the Congress only secured a win in Telangana, diverging from poll predictions. This shift has raised questions about the party's strategy and internal dynamics, as it prepares to face Modi's BJP in the forthcoming general election. Sanjay Kapoor, Al Jazeera, February 17
Long Form
The Tale of 2 Economies: Navigating the Growth Paradox in China. China's economic landscape presents a paradox where robust growth figures coexist with underlying disparities and societal unease. Despite impressive economic indicators, the reality for many businesses and individuals in China tells a different story, highlighting the need to understand and bridge these divides. Addressing these challenges is crucial for China's future economic trajectory and its position on the global stage. Marina Yue Zhang, The Diplomat, February 17
The Self-Defeating Nature of Thailand’s ‘Soft Power’ Push. Thailand's government is heavily investing in promoting the country's soft power, a strategy that has become a buzzword across the Kingdom. This approach, highlighted by the international visibility of celebrities like Ed Sheeran engaging with Thai culture, aims to enhance Thailand's global image. However, this focus on soft power contrasts sharply with the Thai state's use of hard power against critics and dissenters, revealing a tension between the promotion of culture and the repression of free expression. The genuine flowering of Thai popular culture, while appealing, risks exposing the repressive nature of the Thai state to a global audience. Mark S. Cogan, The Diplomat, February 19
Aging Southeast Asia Grapples with Weak Social Safety Nets. Southeast Asia is facing a demographic shift with the share of working-age individuals in the total population reversing its uptrend this year. As the region grays rapidly, the inadequacy of social safety nets becomes apparent, with only a quarter of the working-age population (ages 15 to 64) having access to state pensions. This situation puts pressure on ASEAN economies to enhance social support systems to ensure the well-being of the elderly, as many countries risk aging before achieving wealth. The demographic dividends that have spurred economic growth are running out, highlighting the urgent need for stronger social safety nets. Kentaro Takeda, Nikkei Asia, February 17
Prabowo's Victory Won't Bring Authoritarian Rule Back in Indonesia. Concerns that Prabowo Subianto's presidential election victory might lead Indonesia towards authoritarianism overlook the structural constraints within Indonesian democracy. Despite fears stemming from Prabowo's military background and connections to the Suharto regime, Indonesia's democracy is buffered by competition among elite factions, which prevents any single entity from monopolizing power. This elite competition, a legacy of the post-Suharto era, ensures that democracy, albeit imperfect, persists. The dynamics of coalition-building and power-sharing among these elites, rather than leading to authoritarianism, actually help maintain democratic processes. Abdil Mughis Mudhoffir, Nikkei Asia, February 19
Private Credit Can Help Fill Asia's Growing Financing Gap. In Asia, the tightening of bank lending policies and rising interest rates have spurred the growth of private credit as an alternative financing source for companies. This financial market, while nascent, offers a vital lifeline for SMEs that struggle to access traditional bank loans or bond markets. As private credit continues to expand, it's essential for regulators to recognize its value in addressing the financing gap faced by many businesses across the region. Ee Beng Soh, Nikkei Asia, February 19