China
Xi prioritizes domestic demand and tech independence in 2026 agenda. Xi Jinping outlined a 2026 economic blueprint focused on technological self-reliance and domestically powered growth. He warned China faces entrenched global trade barriers and a complex, challenging environment. In a Qiushi article previewing priorities from December’s Central Economic Work Conference, he urged officials to strengthen structural foundations instead of short-term stimulus. Caixin Global, February 17
U.S. offers more details on claim China conducted secret nuclear weapons test. Arms control official Christopher Yeaw said the United States would resume nuclear tests on an equal basis. Washington accused China of failing to disclose a 2020 nuclear test. His comments came after New START expired Feb. 5 as Trump seeks a trilateral deal with China and Russia. Xinmei Shen, South China Morning Post, February 18
Chinese military urged to overhaul English teaching to improve language skills. PLA lecturers urged military schools to overhaul English classes and hire language specialists. They said teaching overfocuses on vocabulary and grammar and leaves little time for speaking, listening, and translation. They said graduates can read textbooks but cannot brief naturally, write tactical reports, or discuss rules for joint exercises. William Zheng, South China Morning Post, February 17
Bipartisan push grows for Quad summit before Trump’s China trip. U.S. lawmakers and experts urged Trump’s administration to hold a Quad leaders’ summit before his expected April meeting with Xi Jinping. They want Indo-Pacific democracies to show unity and avoid policy misalignment in talks with Beijing. Lindsey Ford and Tanvi Madan called for India engagement and Quad coordination on security and technology. Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, February 17
Japan
Parliament set to re-elect Takaichi as prime minister. Parliament will vote on Wednesday to re-elect Sanae Takaichi as prime minister. Her LDP and the Japan Innovation Party hold 352 of 465 Lower House seats. They lack an Upper House majority, but a runoff is expected to confirm her. Himari Semans, The Japan Times, February 17
Trump unveils 1st set of Japan projects under $550 billion package. Trump unveiled the first projects under Japan’s $550 billion U.S. investment package. He listed critical minerals in Georgia, oil and gas facilities in Texas, and power generation in Ohio. Lutnick valued them at $36 billion, and the July deal ties funding to lower tariffs on Japanese cars. Kyodo News, February 18
South Korea
S. Korea seeks aid reform to boost efficiency, Global South ties. Seoul will set country strategies and consolidate ODA projects under KOICA. Officials counted 1,600 projects run by 41 agencies, and overlaps stalled work in Indonesia and Ethiopia. The plan targets AI, climate and health, cuts projects to 800 by 2030, and trims the 2026 budget 22.9% to 2.84 trillion won. Kim Seung-yeon, Yonhap News Agency, February 17
North Korea
N. Korea completes 50,000-unit housing construction project in Pyongyang: KCNA. North Korea said it completed 50,000 flats in Pyongyang ahead of a party congress later this month. KCNA said 40,000 units were built from 2022 to 2025, and 10,000 were finished recently. Kim Jong Un attended the inauguration with daughter Ju-ae and promised a larger construction push at the ninth party congress. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, February 17
Vietnam
864 candidates announced for 16th National Assembly across 182 electoral units. National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man signed Resolution No. 151/NQ-HDBCQG listing candidates for the 16th National Assembly. The National Election Council will publish 864 candidates in 182 electoral units to elect 500 deputies. Government and election agencies were tasked with implementing the resolution, which took effect Feb. 14. Vietnam News, February 14
Thailand
Klatham govt role in doubt. Prospects for the Klatham Party joining a Bhumjaithai-led government remain uncertain amid resistance inside the largest party. BJT secretary-general Chaichanok Chidchob said he spoke with Klatham’s Pai Leeke, but leaders must negotiate. Sources cited image worries, ethical petitions, and a fight over portfolios as a 297-seat bloc forms without Klatham’s 58 MPs. Chairith Yonpiam, Bangkok Post, February 18
BJT targets economy, security roles. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said Bhumjaithai will take security and economic portfolios in the coalition he aims to form after the election results are certified. He pledged tougher border closures, “security walls,” and revoking the 2001 MOU with Cambodia on overlapping maritime claims. He said a “Thailand team” with finance, commerce and foreign affairs officials will revive the economy and address structural constraints. Apinya Wipatayotin, Bangkok Post, February 17
People’s Party leader vows to fight libel case. People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut denied allegations in a defamation case filed by Gulf Development, and the court set witness hearings for October. He submitted a written statement and evidence to the Criminal Court and said he will call witnesses about energy-sector reform and monopolistic practices. Gulf seeks 100 million baht, saying its October 2024 comments on a renewable energy procurement project harmed its reputation. Wassayos Ngamkham, Bangkok Post, February 17
Cambodia
Cambodian PM says Thailand occupying territory after Trump-brokered ceasefire. Prime Minister Hun Manet said Thai forces are occupying Cambodian territory despite a Trump-brokered ceasefire. He urged Thailand to let a joint boundary commission begin work on demarcating the disputed border. Thailand denied occupying territory and said it is maintaining troop positions as part of de-escalation measures. Simon Lewis, Reuters, February 18
Philippines
ICC prosecutor hands off on Duterte defense bid to disqualify victims’ lawyers. Prosecutors told judges they take no position on Rodrigo Duterte’s bid to disqualify victims’ lawyers. A redacted filing classified as confidential cited sensitive details about witnesses and ongoing investigations. Prosecutors confirmed they will not use two redacted items of evidence at the confirmation hearing or trial. Franco Jose C. Baroña, The Manila Times, February 17
PH, U.S., Australia hold maritime drills over West Philippine Sea. Philippine, U.S. and Australian forces completed the 14th MMCA in the West Philippine Sea on Feb. 15-16. The AFP described the drills as reinforcing interoperability and freedom of navigation and overflight under international law. The military deployed ships and aircraft and reported no incidents despite distant PLAN vessels. Izel Abanilla, The Manila Times, February 17
U.S. to deploy more missile launchers in Philippines over China’s objections. The United States will deploy more missile systems to the Philippines after annual strategic talks in Manila. A joint statement condemned China’s “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive” actions in the South China Sea. China wants the Typhon system withdrawn, but the Philippine government calls the deployments a deterrence. Associated Press and Bernadette E. Tamayo, The Manila Times, February 17
Bangladesh
Tarique Rahman sworn in as Bangladesh's PM after landslide election victory. BNP leader Tarique Rahman took the oath as prime minister in Dhaka with a 49-member cabinet. The ceremony was held at parliament’s South Plaza and officiated by President Mohammed Shahabuddin. Rahman pledged to maintain peace and law and order after months of turmoil following Sheikh Hasina’s 2024 ouster. Ruma Paul, Reuters, February 17
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan intends to accelerate oil refining expansion to 40 million tons per year. Kazakhstan plans to raise refining capacity to 40 million tons a year by 2033, seven years earlier than planned. Deputy energy minister Kaiyrkhan Tutkyshbaev said the 10 million ton fourth refinery would be developed in 2026-33. Officials expect aviation kerosene deficits to end by 2033 and exports afterward. Dmitry Pokidaev, The Times of Central Asia, February 17
Kazakhstan and Tajikistan advance strategic partnership after foreign minister’s visit. Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev met Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin in Dushanbe on Feb. 16. They set a $2 billion goal and agreed on agribusiness, investment, and water, energy, transport, and logistics cooperation. They signed a 2026-2028 foreign ministry cooperation program and laid wreaths at the Ismoil Somoni monument. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, February 17
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan target higher railway freight volumes. Transport Minister Nurlan Sauranbayev met online with Uzbek counterpart Ilkhom Makhkamov to lift transit cargo to 55 million tons. A joint plan calls for upgrades at Saryagash, Oasis and Syrdarya and completion of the Darbaza-Maktaral section. Freight between the countries totaled 32.3 million tons in 2025, up 16% from 2024. Dana Omirgazy, The Astana Times, February 17
East Asia
Complicating security in Asia, Trumps sees China as a contingent, not a constant competitor. Trump’s second administration recasts US–China relations as primarily economic, signaling retrenchment from multilateralism and making security commitments outside the Western Hemisphere appear increasingly negotiable under an “America First” approach. The November 2025 National Security Strategy and January 2026 National Defense Strategy adopt a less severe framing of China, stressing economic competition and military strength as leverage for bargaining rather than confrontation in the Indo-Pacific. This ambiguity blurs deterrence thresholds for Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. China exploits the opening through expanded PLA signaling, including “Justice 2025” drills near Taiwan’s jurisdictional waters, and coercive pressure on Japan after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks, while Washington’s response remains muted. Claus Soong, Merics, February 17
Beware China’s shrinking car market. China’s auto market shows renewed risk of contraction after car sales reached 23.8 million last year, about 4% above 2024, but fell year-on-year in every month of the final quarter. The CPCA expects flat sales this year, while Bernstein forecasts a 5–9% decline, amid additional warning signs such as delayed weekly data and expectations that EV sales could dip. Demand is pressured by the fading impact of late-2024 scrappage subsidies, a new 5–10% EV purchase tax, and tighter controls on dealers registering cars for resale as “zero miles” exports. A shrinking market amplifies a price war fueled by excess capacity, prompting new antitrust rules banning below-cost sales. Slower domestic demand is likely to accelerate exports, with Bernstein projecting 10–15% export growth in 2026 to 6.5–7 million vehicles. The Economist, February 17
Southeast Asia
Trump’s New Arms Rules Will Hit Southeast Asia. A new “America First” arms export strategy prioritizes sales that build U.S. production and capacity and favors partners that invest in self-defense, hold critical geography for U.S. operations, or contribute to U.S. economic security. Most Southeast Asian states face added hurdles in obtaining U.S. systems, pushing procurement toward Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and potentially Russia or China. The Philippines is positioned as a likely priority given South China Sea shipping stakes and proximity to Taiwan. Cambodia gains from a lifted embargo alongside a critical minerals access deal, with Malaysia and Thailand possible but affordability limits. Singapore’s Strait of Malacca location supports its case, while Indonesia and Vietnam risk deprioritization amid nonalignment and limited concessions. Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy, February 17
South Asia
India is still far from unlocking its full export potential. India’s burst of trade dealmaking revives an agenda long constrained by protectionist politics and earlier FTAs that widened deficits and raised imports faster than exports. Older agreements were shallow, goods-focused, and riddled with exclusions, while small tariff preference margins and costly rules-of-origin compliance limited uptake by exporters. Stagnant global manufacturing export share reflects deeper constraints: weak industrial capability, high duties on intermediate inputs from non-FTA partners, and cost gaps in sectors like textiles driven by electricity prices, productivity, taxes, and logistics. Electronics exports show stronger results from targeted policy, lifting global mobile and telecom export share from 0.14% (2015) to 3.5% (2024). Deeper “next-generation” FTAs and faster manufacturing reforms remain central to gains. Priyanka Kishore, Nikkei Asia, February 17
India’s Struggle for (Cleaner) Power. India is decoupling power-demand growth from power-sector emissions faster than the United States and China did at similar development levels while rapidly expanding electricity access. Yet overall power-sector emissions still rise, risking offsetting reductions elsewhere because coal dominates generation and produces over 97 percent of sector emissions. India resists fixed coal phase-out dates, favoring a pragmatic phase-down while lowering costs and safeguarding jobs. Policy priorities include cutting transmission and distribution losses, scaling energy-efficiency programs, upgrading the grid to reduce solar curtailment, and expanding renewables and other firm low-carbon sources, including nuclear and potential carbon capture. Clara Gillispie, Council on Foreign Relations, February 17
Central Asia
Central Asia enters 2026 with cautious optimism. Central Asia avoided major upheavals in 2025, sustained strong economic expansion, and maintained political continuity as incumbents consolidated power. Regional cooperation advanced with the Khujand agreements ending long-running Kyrgyzstan–Tajikistan–Uzbekistan territorial disputes and a November 2025 leaders’ summit creating a permanent Secretariat and adopting a regional security framework, while also inviting Azerbaijan to join the grouping. The republics balanced external ties, staying neutral on Ukraine and signaling that cordial relations with Washington no longer required distancing from Russia or pursuing democratic reforms. Large transport initiatives and new energy projects advanced, while Afghanistan-based security threats remained contained. Water and energy frictions, climate stress, and population growth remain key constraints. Kirill Nourzhanov, East Asia Forum, February 17
Where Does the Split in the Ruling Tandem Leave Kyrgyzstan? President Sadyr Japarov abruptly removed Kamchybek Tashiev, his longtime ally and security chief, while Tashiev was hospitalized abroad, dismissed senior deputies, and restructured the State Committee for National Security to prevent any rival power center. Tashiev had enforced the regime’s consolidation through crackdowns on opposition, media, tycoons, and criminal groups, while his nationalist rhetoric complicated border diplomacy. With a presidential election set for January 2027, Japarov is positioning to remain in office, leveraging constitutional changes and seeking court approval to run again. The trajectory points toward personalist autocracy, though elite resentments linked to Tashiev’s networks could reemerge if Japarov shows weakness. Temur Umarov, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 17
Alex and Nick, fantastic curation as always. However, reading the Economist’s take on China’s EV market alongside your updates on Kazakhstan reveals a massive geopolitical blind spot in the mainstream consensus.
These aren't isolated regional stories; they are the Input and Output of the exact same Thermodynamic Equation executed by System B.
On the Output side, the West misreads China’s domestic auto "contraction" as a financial weakness. It’s not. As you cited, domestic sales hit 23.8M, but the CPCA and Bernstein forecast a 5-9% decline amid a brutal price war. Western analysts see "excess capacity"; System B sees a deliberate Phase Transition. The margin compression is a feature, not a bug—designed to permanently bankrupt the bottom 50+ legacy ICE and hybrid brands. Once the domestic weaklings are purged, the surviving vertically integrated mega-champions (like BYD) will unleash that projected 10-15% export growth (6.5 to 7 million vehicles by 2026) onto System A. This isn't a slowing market; it's the consolidation of an export armada.
But to fuel that armada, you need secured, sanction-proof inputs. That’s where your Central Asia bullets connect perfectly on the Input side.
Kazakhstan isn't just randomly accelerating a 40 million-ton refining expansion 7 years early. Look at the logistics data you provided: rail freight with Uzbekistan already hit 32.3 million tons in 2025 (up 16%). Astana is actively building the Eurasian Energy-Industrial Loop. By refining discounted Russian crude locally—and leveraging the existing 20 million-ton/year capacity of the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline—Kazakhstan acts as the ultimate physical "mixer" node. The Joules are effectively laundered to bypass Western paper sanctions and funneled straight eastward to Xinjiang and China’s inland manufacturing base.
System A reads an isolated auto slowdown and local refinery news. System B is quietly closing the loop: securing cheap Central Asian Joules to power a ruthlessly optimized industrial output. Putting these specific data points next to each other inadvertently exposed the entire physical board. Brilliant brief!