China
China summons Western envoys in Hong Kong over Jimmy Lai sentencing criticism. China’s foreign ministry commissioner’s office in Hong Kong summoned the heads of the UK, U.S., Australian and EU missions. The office said it opposed their comments after a Hong Kong court sentenced Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison earlier this month. It urged respect for China’s sovereignty and Hong Kong’s rule of law and told the governments to end interference. Beijing newsroom, Reuters, February 14
Rubio, Wang Yi manage U.S.-China great power rivalry in Munich even as core tensions linger. Rubio and Wang Yi urged managing U.S.-China differences at the Munich Security Conference. Wang praised Donald Trump’s respect for Xi Jinping but warned U.S. moves on Taiwan could spur conflict. Rubio pledged talks with Beijing and careful dispute management as an April Trump visit was discussed. Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, February 14
China allows visa-free entry to British, Canadian nationals. China will grant visa-free entry to British and Canadian passport holders starting Tuesday through year-end. Visitors can stay up to 30 days for business, tourism, family visits, or exchanges, the foreign ministry said. It leaves U.S. citizens as the only Five Eyes nationals needing visas, after Australia and New Zealand gained waivers in 2024. Yuanyue Dang, South China Morning Post, February 15
Chinese journalists who accused a Communist Party official of corruption released on bail. Liu Hu and Wu Yingjiao were released on bail in Sichuan after their Feb. 2 detention. Police cited false accusations and illegal business operations after they alleged Pu Fayou abused authority and harmed enterprises. Liu was detained in 2013 on similar charges and was later acquitted. Meredith Chen, South China Morning Post, February 16
Japan
Japan PM Takaichi holds first meeting with BOJ chief Ueda since election win. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda met Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the first time since her party's Feb. 8 landslide election victory. Markets have speculated the BOJ could raise rates in March or April as living costs rise, driven in part by a weak yen. Ueda said they discussed economic and financial developments and that Takaichi made no specific monetary policy requests. Makiko Yamazaki and Leika Kihara, Reuters, February 16
China’s top diplomat warns Japan of ‘ghosts of militarism’ in rebuke of Takaichi. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said “ghosts of militarism” are haunting Japan during a Munich Security Conference panel days after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory. Wang said Japan must repent for past wrongdoing and warned that far-right extremists could drag the country down a dead-end path. The remarks undercut Japan’s defense chief, who urged a return to dialogue as ties remain frozen after Takaichi raised the possibility of intervention in a Taiwan crisis. Jesse Johnson, The Japan Times, February 15
Takaichi still seeking budget passage in Diet by March 31. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pressed ruling party leaders to pass the fiscal 2026 budget before March 31. Opposition parties said her Lower House dissolution and Feb. 8 snap election made timely passage harder and warned against cutting Budget Committee debate time. Ruling officials said the coalition lacks an Upper House majority and needs opposition cooperation to approve the budget. Yuta Ogi and Akira Takei, The Asahi Shimbun, February 14
Survey: Majority back Takaichi but say LDP won ‘too many’ seats. An Asahi Shimbun poll put Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Cabinet approval at 63% after the LDP won 316 of 465 Lower House seats. Some 62% said the party won “too many” seats, and 63% urged caution on divisive policies. High prices ranked first among policy priorities at 51%, while constitutional revision drew 5%. Kazuaki Isoda, Yasuhito Watanabe and Hiroshi Kimijima, The Asahi Shimbun, February 16
South Korea
Nat’l Assembly likely to put regional merger bills to vote later this month. Lawmakers plan a floor vote on bills merging Daegu with North Gyeongsang and three other city-province pairs. A committee passed the bills Thursday, enabling a full Assembly vote later this month. Each integrated special city would get up to 20 trillion won over four years and four deputy heads. Kim Eun-jung, Yonhap News Agency, February 16
S. Korea, U.S. discuss strengthening naval supply chain in Indo-Pacific. South Korean and U.S. defense officials met to deepen naval logistics cooperation and overhaul support. A U.S. delegation led by Capt. Albert Sonon discussed spare-parts support with DAPA and South Korean naval commands. The talks covered supply support for P-8A aircraft and MH-60R helicopters and steps to speed parts access. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, February 13
Bessent says ‘we’ll see’ if scope of steel, aluminum tariffs narrows. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration will decide whether to narrow steel and aluminum tariffs. He spoke after a Financial Times report that President Donald Trump plans to scale back some metal tariffs. The Trump administration has imposed 50% tariffs and added items like refrigerators and washers based on steel content. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, February 13
North Korea
North Korea's new Congress to reset arms goals as gaps seen in 2021 plan. North Korea will set new weapons development goals at its Ninth Party Congress after meeting only part of the capabilities Kim Jong Un listed in 2021. Analysts cited progress on nuclear and missile programs but a mixed record in conventional systems, including drones, submarines, and space-based surveillance. North Korea put its first military spy satellite in orbit in 2023, failed in another launch in 2024, and has not announced a new attempt. Kyu-Seok Shim, Reuters, February 16
North Korea's Kim marks completion of Pyongyang housing project as key party congress nears. Kim Jong Un marked the completion of 10,000 new homes in Pyongyang’s Hwasong District, KCNA reported. KCNA said the build met a 50,000-home target set five years ago. Kim said the Ninth Workers’ Party Congress would set new goals as delegates arrived and his daughter Ju Ae joined the ceremony. Joyce Lee, Reuters, February 16
N. Korea’s Kim expresses desire to strengthen ties with Serbia in letter to president. Kim Jong Un sent a Statehood Day letter to President Aleksandar Vucic, North Korea’s foreign ministry said. The ministry said the holiday marks the first Serbian uprising in 1804 against Ottoman rule. Kim expressed hope that relations would develop to meet the interests of both peoples. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, February 15
N.K. leader’s daughter Ju-ae takes center stage with father in photos at Beijing embassy. The North Korean Embassy in Beijing displayed 25 photos of Kim, with a central image of Ju-ae beside him. It was the first time her image led the display. South Korea’s NIS assessed Ju-ae is being designated successor, citing public appearances and reported policy input. Park Boram, Yonhap News Agency, February 13
Vietnam
Vietnamese Party General Secretary to visit U.S. General Secretary Tô Lâm will visit the United States for the confirmatory Board of Peace for Gaza meeting on Feb. 18-20. The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry said U.S. President Donald Trump invited him as the board’s founding chairman. It said Trump sent a Jan. 16 letter inviting Vietnam to join the board and that Tô Lâm accepted. Vietnam News, February 18
Thailand
Thailand's election winner Bhumjaithai seals coalition deal with Pheu Thai. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said the election winner, Bhumjaithai, will form a coalition with the third-place Pheu Thai party. Bhumjaithai won 193 seats and has about 275 seats with Pheu Thai and smaller parties, giving Anutin a parliamentary majority. Anutin said the parties will govern together, and an analyst said the alliance strengthens links to business networks tied to Thaksin Shinawatra. Panarat Thepgumpanat, Chayut Setboonsarng, Panu Wongcha-um and Devjyot Ghoshal, Reuters, February 13
People’s Party leader vows to fight libel case. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut denied a defamation charge filed by Gulf Development at the Criminal Court. The court set witness hearings for October, and he plans to call witnesses on energy-sector reform and alleged monopolistic practices. Gulf seeks 100 million baht and says his October 2024 remarks on a renewable energy procurement project harmed its reputation. Wassayos Ngamkham, Bangkok Post, February 17
Petition urges court to invalidate polls. Politicians and students from nine universities petitioned the Central Administrative Court to void the Feb. 8 vote. They said barcodes and QR codes on ballots could compromise anonymity and breach the 2017 Constitution. They sought a new election and a pause in certification, and 209 academics urged the Election Commission to address secrecy, tally delays and ballot handling. Bangkok Post, February 17
Myanmar
Myanmar expels East Timor envoy after rights group complaint against junta. Myanmar ordered East Timor's mission chief to leave within seven days, state media said. The Chin state Human Rights Organization filed a complaint in East Timor accusing Myanmar's armed forces of war crimes since the 2021 coup. Myanmar's foreign ministry said East Timor's acceptance of the case and appointment of a prosecutor created an unprecedented practice and inflamed resentment. Reuters, February 16
Min Aung Hlaing makes rare visit to resistance stronghold of N. Sagaing. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing flew to Homalin in northern Sagaing and met district officials and residents. He told troops under the Northwestern Command to master modern weapons and technology supplied by the military. Analysts tied the trip to planned operations after the regime retook Banmauk near the Kachin border. Maung Kavi, The Irrawaddy, February 16
China hails ‘new heights’ for Myanmar ties after tilting war in junta’s favor. Ambassador Ma Jia hailed “new heights” in 2025 ties at a Chinese New Year event in Yangon. Min Aung Hlaing skipped the Yangon ceremony and sent deputy Soe Win, prompting speculation about his rise. Soe Win thanked China for peace process support and promoted Kyaukphyu port, pipelines and the Muse-Mandalay railway. The Irrawaddy, February 16
Cambodia
PM Hun Manet praises Cambodia-Korea joint task force for progress in combating online scams. Prime Minister Hun Manet praised the Cambodia-Korea Joint Task Force for dismantling online scam networks and curbing transnational crime. He welcomed a message from South Korean President Lee Jae-myung citing cooperation and urged eradication of online scams. Hun Manet said cross-border crime requires real-time information sharing and coordinated law enforcement. Khmer Times, February 14
Philippines
Philippines says takes exception to China embassy comment on job losses. Manila objected to a Chinese embassy warning that worsening ties could cost millions of jobs. The foreign ministry said the tone implied cooperation could be withheld as leverage and could be seen as coercive. It urged Beijing to use a responsible tone as the countries spar over South China Sea incidents. Karen Lema, Reuters, February 17
Philippine Navy’s BRP Miguel Malvar joins historic naval drills in India. Guided-missile frigate BRP Miguel Malvar arrived in Visakhapatnam on Feb. 14. The ship will join the 3rd Indian Navy International Fleet Review on Feb. 18 and Milan 2026 on Feb. 19-26. The navy called it FFG-06’s first foreign mission and said activities include seminars, exchanges, and sea-phase drills. Philippine News Agency, The Manila Times, February 15
Govt ready to arrest Go, dela Rosa for ICC if warrant is issued. Malacañang said the government will cooperate if the ICC issues warrants for Senators Bong Go and Ronald dela Rosa. Undersecretary Claire Castro said warrants would be served through Interpol, as with ex-president Rodrigo Duterte. The ICC named them co-perpetrators in Duterte’s drug war case and scheduled a Feb. 23 confirmation hearing. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, February 16
Indonesia
Indonesia readies 1,000 troops for potential peacekeeping force in Gaza in early April. Indonesia is preparing 1,000 troops for possible deployment to Gaza by early April as part of a proposed multinational peacekeeping force, an army spokesperson said. Spokesperson Donny Pramono said President Prabowo Subianto will decide on deployment and that 8,000 soldiers will be ready by June. The foreign ministry said the UN-mandated force would not normalize ties with Israel and would require Palestinian Authority consent. Ananda Teresia and Gayatri Suroyo, Reuters, February 16
Govt says further verification needed after reports of Indonesian in Israeli army. Indonesia's ministry said it could not confirm reports an Indonesian joined Israel's army in the Gaza war. Spokesman Vahd Nabyl A Mulachela said the Amman embassy was unaware and will seek verification with the law ministry. He said Indonesia bans dual citizenship and any revocation needs a law ministry decision. Jayanty Nada Shofa, Jakarta Globe, February 17
Taiwan
Taiwan parliament to tackle defence spending review after Lunar New Year holiday. Parliament Speaker Han Kuo-yu said Taiwan will prioritize review of a $40 billion special defense budget after the Lunar New Year recess. The plan would fund U.S. weapons sought by President Lai, but the opposition has delayed consideration. Han and deputy Johnny Chiang promised cross-party talks after 37 U.S. lawmakers warned against stalling. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, February 16
Taiwan president vows to strengthen island's defences in Lunar New Year message. President Lai Ching-te said Taiwan will strengthen national defence and public security to safeguard national security and social stability. He recorded the message at the Hsiaohsuehshan radar station and thanked the armed forces for round-the-clock protection. The video included footage of Taiwan’s first domestically developed submarine undergoing undersea trials. Ben Blanchard, Reuters, February 15
Bangladesh
Bangladesh's incoming prime minister puts restoring economy and governance first. Tarique Rahman said his priorities are improving the economy, law and order, and governance after his party’s election win. The BNP secured a two-thirds majority, returning to power after nearly two decades, following months of turmoil after Sheikh Hasina’s 2024 ouster. He said he will spur business and jobs and called China a development friend, while observers warned the political environment remains fragile. Ruma Paul and Praveen Paramasivam, Reuters, February 14
Uzbekistan
President of Uzbekistan to attend inaugural Board of Peace summit in Washington. Shavkat Mirziyoyev will attend the Board of Peace summit on Gaza reconstruction on Feb. 19 in Washington, D.C. Uzbekistan 24 TV said the meeting will advance the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire and secure reconstruction funding. The charter was signed in Davos, and Trump will chair the board with Jared Kushner and Marco Rubio. Author, Gazeta.uz, February 17
Tajikistan
Tajikistan plans over $1 billion for Rogun hydropower project in 2026. Tajikistan will allocate at least 10 billion somoni for Rogun in 2026, with 8.2 billion in the state budget. Qahhorzoda said a $350 million World Bank tranche has started and $300 million is expected by midyear. Two of six units are operating, and the third is scheduled for September 2027. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, February 16
Kyrgyzstan
After firing close ally Tashiyev, Japarov says goal for Kyrgyzstan is unity. President Sadyr Japarov said he will eradicate the north-south divide after firing security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev. He blamed politicians for using regional splits to spark unrest and trade posts between factions. Japarov said rotating governors, prosecutors and judges between regions has reduced tensions and will continue. The Times of Central Asia, February 16
East Asia
In Xi Jinping’s Purge of the Military, a Search for Absolute Loyalty. Xi Jinping invoked Yan’an’s legacy, then removed Gen. Zhang Youxia, once seen as a confidant, and restricted online discussion. Over three years, Xi ousted five of six generals in the Central Military Commission, leaving himself and a vice chairman who oversees the purges. Party and military editorials framed the investigation as cleaning out “sick trees” and “hidden cancer” while praising Xi as the military’s source of strength. Analysts link the campaign to Maoist rectification methods, including enforced study of Xi Jinping Thought and peer reporting. The party discipline body reported 983,000 officials punished last year. Publicly disowning Zhang signals Xi’s control ahead of 2027. Lily Kuo, The New York Times, February 16
Unusual speed and potential triggers: Assessing the latest purges in China’s military. Xi Jinping removed Central Military Commission members Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli after sweeping October purges, signaling urgency ahead of 2027 milestones such as the PLA centenary and the 21st Party Congress. The move followed a decade of military anti-corruption drives that brought down former CMC vice chairmen and multiple sitting members. Motives remain unclear, with possibilities ranging from poor progress on modernization goals to fears over rival networks or links to prior investigations. PLA Daily editorials framed the case as a defense of party control and the CMC chairman responsibility system. Vacancies across command and functional departments deepen uncertainty. Disrupted chains of command reduce near-term risk for Taiwan, while promotions of loyal officers can raise long-term danger. Daria Impiombato and Helena Legarda, Merics, February 13
Xi's anti-corruption drive has removed the PLA's safety valve. Xi Jinping’s purge of senior PLA leaders removes a corruption network and a class of generals who preferred peace to protect family wealth and overseas assets. Those officers used scripted drills and threat inflation to delay risky action. Vacancies are being filled by lieutenant generals promoted into jobs above their rank, with authority tied to Xi’s patronage. The shake-up weakens joint-operations trust and limits discretion in a crisis. Fear of political deviation discourages commander-to-commander contacts and crisis de-escalation. With fewer internal brakes and fragile communications, incidents around Taiwan, Japan, or in the East China Sea carry a higher escalation risk. Youlun Nie, Nikkei Asia, February 15
Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape. Satellite images show new construction at nuclear sites in Sichuan’s valleys, including Zitong and the double-fenced Pingtong complex. Zitong has new bunkers, ramparts, and piping that suggest work with hazardous materials. Pingtong’s main building has a 360-foot ventilation stack, new vents, heat dispersers, and added perimeter fencing, and analysts link it to the production of plutonium pits for warheads. Geospatial researcher Renny Babiarz says changes across China formed a pattern that began to speed up in 2019. U.S. officials accused China of covert nuclear explosive tests, but China rejected the claim. The Pentagon estimates China had more than 600 warheads in 2024 and could reach 1,000 by 2030, raising concern about crisis behavior over Taiwan. Chris Buckley and Agnes Chang, The New York Times, February 15
China remains undeterred in the grey zone. China staged “Justice Mission 2025” in late 2025, surrounding Taiwan with warships, aircraft, and coast guard vessels in a blockade drill at shorter range to the island than past exercises. In 2025, incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone exceeded 3,700 and cyberattacks reached record highs, alongside reports of espionage, undersea cable cuts, disinformation, and a mainland investigation into a sitting Taiwanese lawmaker. The coast guard spent 335 consecutive days near the Senkaku Islands, and pressure on Japan followed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s warning about a Taiwan invasion. China escalated against the Philippines, with an August collision between Chinese vessels, and faced standoffs with South Korea in the Yellow Sea amid maritime infrastructure and no-sail zones. A proposed response links diplomatic, economic, informational, and military tools through a shared counter grey zone strategy and an Indo-Pacific centre for countering hybrid threats. Sam Mullins, East Asia Forum, February 14
China's Soft Power by the Numbers. Xi Jinping set a target in 2014 for 300 million Chinese citizens to take up winter sports, and Beijing expanded school programs, venues, and elite recruitment after winning the 2022 Olympic bid. The 2022 Beijing Games drew a diplomatic boycott from the United States and nine other countries, but China finished fourth in total medals with a record nine gold. China now claims the most ski resorts and large winter tourism revenue, with medalists that include U.S.-born freestyle skier Eileen Gu. China tracks gold medals as the key measure and treats winter sports as diplomacy and regional rivalry with Japan and South Korea. China enters Milan Cortina in a record 116 events, with new disciplines added over time. Eli Wizevich and Maxine Davey, Foreign Policy, February 13
Defeatist Europe is set for growing dependence on China without decisive action. European debate about ties with China has increased amid friction with the United States, but China’s leverage and pressure persist. Beijing’s grip on rare earths threatens production of chips, electronics, missiles, and radar systems. Manufacturing overinvestment has produced overcapacity that sends cheap electric vehicles, machinery, and chemicals into Europe. Brussels has offered limited de-risking steps, including 3 billion euros for up to 30 strategic projects, while member states court Chinese investment. German Chamber of Commerce in China survey data show 56 percent of German firms consider deeper engagement, and car shipments to Europe rose 36 percent in the first half of 2025. Proposed responses include major funding for supply chains outside China and deterrence tools such as the Anti-Coercion Instrument and targeted export controls. Jacob Gunter, Merics, February 13
What the West Gets Wrong About Chinese Manufacturing. Western views that focus on state champions and subsidies miss China’s main advantage, industrial density built on millions of small firms and regional clusters. Competitive clusters support supplier variety, knowledge transfer, labor mobility, and fast firm turnover that preserves skills and enables scaling for breakout companies. Policy supports targeted innovators through the Little Giants program and high-tech development zones with high patent counts and R&D intensity. Scale rests on domestic demand, standards, procurement channels, and infrastructure that make China a major customer in sectors such as electric vehicles and solar. Financing relies on cheap capital, public funds, and tolerance for low returns, with capital aimed at capability, employment, and strategic position. Tariffs buy time, while industrial ecosystems decide leverage. Robin Rivaton, CHINA US Focus, February 13
Beijing’s stock exchange values policy over liquidity. The Beijing Stock Exchange reached four years in September 2025 with total market capitalization of over 900 billion yuan, supporting China’s push for innovation-led growth under economic pressure. The exchange channels equity finance to small and medium enterprises in priority sectors, including “little giants” in advanced manufacturing, industrial software, and critical components. Over 80 percent of listed firms operate in strategic emerging industries and close to 53 percent come from the Little Giants initiative. Listings rose from 81 in 2021 to over 290 by late 2025, while average daily turnover fell to 77 million yuan from September to December 2025. Retail trading dominates and institutional investors account for under 10 percent, reinforcing a model that trades liquidity for policy control and “new quality productive forces.” Omkar Bhole, East Asia Forum, February 13
Assetizing, Trading, Franchising: China's Strategy for Building a National Data Economy. China has expanded its data economy since 2022 through a development-led governance framework shaped by the Twenty Data Measures and the National Data Administration. Policy experiments treat data as a balance-sheet asset, build state-owned data exchanges for supervised trading, and franchise public data rights to selected operators to unify local markets and reduce the data island problem. Assetization supports valuation and financing for data products. Data exchanges set trading rules, compliance services, and links to bank funding. Public data franchising can raise revenue but can restrict access, foster rent seeking, and raise privacy and security risks amid uneven data quality and weak demand. Ran Guo, Asia Society, February 13
China needs grids, not more solar or wind power capacity. China added 649 gigawatts of new solar and wind in 2023 and 2024, and renewable generation reached 1,830 terawatt-hours in 2024, but provincial buildouts outpaced grid absorption. Curtailment now wastes clean electricity and creates political risk for officials judged on utilization and reliability. The National Energy Administration and State Grid are speeding approvals for ultra-high-voltage transmission to move power from northern and western bases to coastal demand centers, paired with dispatch reform and more system flexibility. Wood Mackenzie forecasts solar curtailment above 5% in 21 provinces over the next decade, which threatens investor revenue. Needed steps include a unified power market and storage mandates that pair new renewables with batteries. The International Energy Agency says electricity networks must double in length by 2040, with delays driven by permitting and workforce limits. Tim Daiss, Nikkei Asia, February 14
China as Belarus’s “Strategic Hedge” under Russian Dominance: The Role of the Great Stone Industrial Park. Belarus relies on Russia for security, energy, finance, and export access, which limits room for foreign policy diversification. Engagement with China centers on the Great Stone Industrial Park near Minsk, launched after 2010 talks and formalized in a 2012 agreement as a high-technology manufacturing and logistics hub. Chinese investment totals $1.26 billion under tax and customs privileges, alongside 27 China-backed projects above $5 billion that use state loans tied to Chinese procurement. The park gives Minsk diplomatic leverage and a Belt and Road showcase, while Russian subsidies and crisis support keep Moscow as the decisive partner. Oliver Konradt and Andres Loberg, chinaobservers, February 16
China’s strategy for Latin America and the ’Trump Corollary’. China has built broad economic influence in Latin America and the Caribbean through trade, infrastructure ownership, and state media partnerships, while the region supplies energy, minerals, and agricultural goods. Beijing issued a third policy paper on the region in December 2025 and frames cooperation as support for autonomy from Washington. Xi Jinping and senior officials devote fewer engagements and visits to the region than to Asia, Africa, or Europe, which points to lower strategic priority. The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy sets a Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine to block non-hemispheric control of vital assets, which can threaten Chinese ports, space sites, and Taiwan diplomacy. A U.S. focus on the hemisphere can pull attention from Asia and create propaganda value for China. Sun Chenghao, Brookings, February 13
Dubai’s crazy rich Chinese. Wealthy Chinese migrants and firms are moving money and operations to Dubai as China’s growth slows and sanctions fears rise. China estimates 370,000 citizens live in the UAE and more than 15,000 Chinese firms operate there, with both totals up since 2019. Dubai offers Chinese supermarkets, schools, and health services, plus zones that host state banks and technology startups. Residency can follow a 2m dirham property investment. Chinese buyers have pushed into real estate, where prices rose about 12% in 2025. Dubai’s openness to crypto and regulatory experiments attracts entrepreneurs. Risks include fraud networks, tighter Chinese capital controls, and potential US secondary sanctions. The Economist, February 15
Why American allies are flocking to see Xi Jinping in Beijing. A stream of leaders from American allied countries has visited Beijing since December, including France, Canada, Britain, Finland, South Korea, and Germany. Uncertainty tied to Donald Trump has pushed partners to broaden ties with China, while Beijing treats the visits as proof of great-power status and US unreliability. Meeting outcomes have been limited. Canada lowered tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles under a quota system, and Britain approved a larger Chinese embassy. European institutions resisted new trade talks, and disputes resumed after visits over tariffs and Hong Kong cases. China gains time to build technology and green industry footholds abroad. Chinese officials and commentators signal that trade leverage could move from punishment to policy change, raising coercion risks. The Economist, February 16
Southeast Asia
Malaysia’s Opposition: The Need to Close Ranks. Muhyiddin Yassin resigned as chairman of Perikatan Nasional, opening a chance for Parti Islam Se-Malaysia to lead the opposition coalition. The opposition frontbench has lacked a clear structure since the 2022 election, when Bersatu kept the coalition chair while Hamzah Zainuddin served as opposition leader. Bersatu holds key posts with 23 seats, but PAS is the largest bloc with 43 of 222 seats, and the split has blocked a prime ministerial candidate and policy agenda. PAS faces factional fights, weak succession planning, and doubts among voters about Islamist leadership in a multiracial state. Proposals for new councils inside PN and disputes over candidates such as Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar or Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man can keep leadership blurred before Parliament’s term ends in December next year. Adib Zalkapli, FULCRUM, February 13
The Limits of Malaysia’s Anti-Corruption Efforts. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim reaffirmed an anti-corruption stance and plans to recover $7 billion linked to 1MDB, with the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission targeting MYR10 billion in recoveries in 2026. Asset recovery can support governance, but it acts as a windfall and cannot replace stable revenue reform. MACC estimates leakages of MYR277 billion from 2018 to 2023, while authorities recovered MYR15.5 billion from 2023 to 2025. The 1MDB repatriation took six years from December 2018, and cross-border cases depend on foreign cooperation and court timelines. Debt service takes 17 percent of revenue, Petronas dividends are set to fall, and Sabah and Sarawak press for larger shares. Options include GST, a higher top income tax rate, and expanded capital gains tax. Amalina Anuar, FULCRUM, February 16
Myanmar without a path to recovery. Elections from December 28, 2025 to January 25, 2026 delivered a landslide for the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, alongside the 25 percent of seats reserved for the military under the 2008 Constitution. Civil war continues, with Chinese pressure on ethnic resistance groups helping the junta regain territory, while the Arakan Army expanded control across much of Rakhine State. A new Spring Revolution Alliance of 19 groups seeks bottom-up control in contrast with the National Unity Government. Conflict, junta policy, sanctions, earthquake damage, and unregulated mining have deepened humanitarian need, displacement, and collapse in health, education, and youth prospects. Scam centers grew along the Thailand border as outside support for the junta persisted. Lex Rieffel, East Asia Forum, February 16
Indonesia’s hard-charging defence minister delivers politics, not reform. Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin became the defense minister in October 2024 after shaping earlier reforms tied to the Minimum Essential Force, budget transparency, clean audits, and the 2012 Defence Industry Law on technology transfer and local content. His ties to President Prabowo Subianto raised expectations of force restructuring and modernization. The ministry leads crackdowns on illegal mining and forest use, builds territorial development battalions for food security with a plan for 750 units, and runs the free meals program through industrial kitchens and Nutrition Provision Service Units trained at Indonesia Defence University. Procurement keeps focus on major platforms, including 48 KAAN fighters from Turkey, drones, frigates, loans for the carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi, and plans for China’s J-10, while KF-21 funding fell to 600 billion won. This agenda expands domestic military roles and leaves gaps in sustainment, drones, electronic warfare, and networked systems. Rahmad Budi Harto, East Asia Forum, February 16
South Asia
Gen Z Got Fair Elections in Bangladesh but Got Crushed at the Ballot Box. Student protests in June and July 2024 forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee after the army withheld support, leading to an interim government led by Mohammad Yunus. The caretaker team sought reforms to reduce polarization and corruption, but faced resistance from patronage networks and major parties. A charter signed by major parties aimed to block a return to authoritarian rule, yet reforms on the economy, security services, media, and women’s rights stalled. Elections brought a landslide win for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, with Jamaat-e-Islami second. The student-founded National Citizen Party won six of 30 contested seats. Voters backed constitutional changes that now depend on BNP action. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, February 15
Can a new government finally turn Bangladesh around? Bangladesh’s Feb. 12 election ended 17 years without credible national polls and returned the Bangladesh Nationalist Party to power under Tarique Rahman. Voters rejected Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League after elections marred by rigging, repression, and corruption, despite strong growth that peaked above 8% in 2019 and rising income tied to garments and wider internet access. A student uprising drove Hasina from office and an interim government led by Mohammad Yunus set up the vote, with a referendum on the July Charter of reforms set to pass. The new government faces mob violence, inflation, youth unemployment, and a banking system with nonperforming loans above 35%. Dhaka must reset ties with India, manage China’s role, and implement a new U.S. trade deal. Syed Munir Khasru, Nikkei Asia, February 14