Asia Daily: February 15, 2024
News
Former Indonesian general linked to human rights abuses claims victory in presidential election. Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, with a controversial past, claimed victory in Indonesia’s presidential election, presenting himself as an extension of President Joko Widodo's legacy. Despite lacking official declaration and facing past bans due to human rights allegations, Subianto's unofficial lead suggests significant political shifts. His victory underscores ongoing debates about democratic values in Indonesia, a key player in Southeast Asian geopolitics and US-China relations. Niniek Karmini and Edna Tarigan, AP News, February 14
2 Chinese fishermen drown after chase with Taiwan’s Coast Guard, which alleges trespassing. Two Chinese fishermen drowned near Taiwan's Kinmen archipelago during a chase by Taiwan's Coast Guard, accused of trespassing. This incident, amid heightened Chinese activity in the area, has sparked condemnation from China's Taiwan Affairs Office, demanding an investigation and criticizing Taiwan's approach towards Chinese fishing vessels. Kinmen, closer to China, frequently witnesses tensions over maritime boundaries and fishing rights. Huizhong Wu, AP News, February 14
North Korea's Kim Jong Un oversees test of surface-to-sea missile. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised the testing of a new surface-to-sea missile, named Padasuri-6, and emphasized on increasing weapons production during a visit to a major munitions factory. This development, part of a series of recent military demonstrations, signals heightened military readiness amid tensions with South Korea over maritime boundaries. Kim's actions reflect ongoing strategic posturing in the Korean Peninsula, with implications for regional security dynamics. Joyce Lee, Reuters, February 14
S. Korea, Cuba forge formal diplomatic ties. South Korea and Cuba have officially established diplomatic relations, a move likely to impact North Korea's relations given its historical alliance with Cuba. This development, marked by the exchange of diplomatic notes at the United Nations, positions Cuba as the 193rd country with which South Korea has formalized ties. The establishment is seen as a strategic expansion of Seoul's diplomatic reach in Latin America, potentially isolating Pyongyang further. Song Sang-ho, Yonhap News Agency, February 14
Visitors to China’s tourist spots spike during Lunar New Year as country aims to revive post-Covid travel sector. China's tourist destinations saw a significant increase in visitors during the Lunar New Year holiday, signaling a revival in the post-pandemic travel sector. With an extended public holiday and economic recovery, locations like Hainan and Jiuzhaigou experienced record tourist numbers. This surge is part of China's broader effort to rejuvenate its tourism industry, with projections indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels of domestic travel. Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, February 14
Ex-Japan lawmaker pleads guilty to illegal campaign in mayor election. Former Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker Mito Kakizawa admitted to illegal campaign activities during a Tokyo ward mayor election, facing charges of bribery and law violations. Kakizawa's acknowledgment of "heavy" responsibility and the consequential legal proceedings highlight a significant breach in Japan's stringent election laws. This case underscores ongoing concerns over political integrity and legal adherence among public officials. Kyodo News, February 14
Marcos thanks US for aid in Mindanao, cites importance of EDCA sites in disaster response. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. expressed gratitude towards the United States for its assistance following recent calamities in Mindanao. During a meeting with US Ambassador MaryKay Carlsson, Marcos highlighted the significance of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) locations in disaster response efforts, underscoring the strategic partnership's role in addressing emergency situations. This collaboration demonstrates the depth of the Philippines-US alliance in facilitating rapid aid delivery to affected communities. Kristina Maralit, The Manila Times, February 14
US to deploy 5 aircraft carriers in western Pacific in show of strength to China. The US is set to deploy five aircraft carriers to the western Pacific as a signal of deterrence against China and North Korea. This strategic move aims to reassure allies while maintaining focus on the Indo-Pacific region despite global conflicts. The deployment represents a significant increase in naval power, indicating the US's commitment to regional security. Seong Hyeon Choi, South China Morning Post, February 14
Tajikistan to ramp up power exports to Afghanistan. Tajikistan plans to increase its electricity exports to Afghanistan by 17% despite facing domestic shortages, signaling a delicate balance between earning revenue and meeting local demands. The state power company, Barki Tojik, announced this strategy amid winter rationing affecting Tajik households. This move reflects Tajikistan's growing production capabilities and Afghanistan's reliable payments for electricity, fostering cross-border energy cooperation. Eurasianet, February 14
US lawmakers led by China hawk Mike Gallagher to visit Taiwan next week. Amid escalating tensions between the US and China, a delegation of US lawmakers, spearheaded by Representative Mike Gallagher, a noted critic of China, plans to visit Taiwan. This visit underscores the United States' commitment to Taiwan and is poised to include high-level meetings with Taiwanese officials, symbolizing a significant gesture of political support. The trip, particularly given Gallagher's vocal stance against Beijing's policies, is expected to reinforce US-Taiwan ties while potentially provoking China's disapproval. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, February 14
Kazakhstan: Ex-Culture Minister gets more prison time for corruption. Kazakhstan's former Culture Minister, Arystanbek Mukhamediuly, has received an extended prison sentence of 11 years for embezzlement and bribery, including a lifetime ban from civil service roles. This comes after his initial sentencing for misappropriating funds intended for a cultural exhibition in India. Mukhamediuly, along with his wife and lawyer, faced additional charges related to illegal privatization and fraudulent activities, highlighting a significant crackdown on corruption within the country. Almaz Kumenov, Eurasianet, February 14
Myanmar junta plans to implement mandatory military service in April, media say. Myanmar's military is set to enforce mandatory military service for young people and retired security personnel from April, amidst ongoing anti-junta insurgency challenges. This move indicates the junta's increasing need for manpower, with men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27 required to serve up to two years. The decision, reflecting the military's pressure, revives a 2010 conscription law, highlighting the deepening conflict within the country. Reuters, February 14
Long Form
The Benefits of Japan’s Climate Transition Bond. Japan has launched the world's first sovereign climate transition bond, a significant step towards achieving carbon neutrality. This initiative is part of Japan's Green Transformation (GX) policy, aiming to catalyze public-private investments totaling 120 trillion yen ($803 billion). While the GX policy has faced criticism for promoting technologies like coal ammonia co-firing and carbon capture and storage, which are controversial in their commercial viability and effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions, the bond represents a pivotal move by Japan to align its government and industry with climate goals and enhance export competitiveness. This strategic financial instrument underscores Japan's commitment to steering its economy towards sustainable practices and technologies. Walter James, The Diplomat, February 15
China's Deflation Problem Won't Go Away by Itself. China is grappling with a deflationary trend that's proving more persistent than anticipated, reminiscent of Japan's economic struggles in the 1990s. Despite falling consumer prices and deepening property crises, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has remained relatively passive, prioritizing yuan stability over aggressive monetary easing. This approach, influenced by political considerations and President Xi Jinping's long-term priorities, risks allowing deflation to deepen, potentially impacting both the domestic and global economy. The situation calls for more assertive action from the PBOC to prevent deflation from becoming entrenched in China's economic landscape. William Pesek, Nikkei Asia, February 15
Getting Vietnam’s Economic Growth Back on Track. Vietnam's economy, after rebounding with an 8% growth rate at the end of 2022, faced a downturn in the first half of 2023 due to falling exports and a slow recovery in China. The decline in exports and industrial production significantly impacted the GDP growth, which is heavily reliant on exports. Despite monetary policy adjustments to support growth, challenges such as corporate debt and delayed public investments have hindered economic momentum. The government's anti-corruption campaign, while beneficial in reducing unofficial fees and promoting a more equitable business environment, has also contributed to delays in public investment. Vietnam's heavy dependence on foreign direct investment for exports and growth underscores the need for structural reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprises and the domestic private sector, to sustain competitiveness and achieve its middle to upper-middle income status goal within the next 15 years. Suiwah Leung, East Asia Forum, February 15
North Korea’s Leadership Thrives Amid Global Upheaval Through Arms Sales. Despite international sanctions and isolation, North Korea has exploited global conflicts to expand its arms trade, supporting adversaries of the United States. North Korean weapons have been identified in various conflict zones, including Ukraine, Israel, and Sudan, enhancing Pyongyang's financial, strategic, and technological standing. This resurgence in arms trade necessitates urgent international action to curb its destabilizing effects. The United States must lead a coalition to increase awareness, enhance detection and oversight, and ensure compliance with sanctions. Without decisive action, North Korea will continue to finance its weapons development, gain access to new technologies, and spread global instability. Jonathan Corrado and Markus Garlauskas, Foreign Affairs, February 15