Asia Daily: February 14, 2025
Court schedules another hearing for Yoon's impeachment trial, selects impeached PM as witness. South Korea’s Constitutional Court set a 10th hearing for President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment trial on Thursday, summoning impeached Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as a witness. Other witnesses include former intelligence official Hong Jang-won and police chief Cho Ji-ho, who previously failed to appear due to illness. If no further hearings are scheduled, oral arguments could conclude by late February, with a final ruling expected in early or mid-March. Chae Yun-hwan and Choi Kyong-ae, Yonhap News Agency, February 14
Sri Lanka's new president presents first budget with focus on crisis recovery. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake will unveil his first full-year budget, balancing economic recovery with IMF bailout conditions. He aims to lower taxes, boost welfare, and support industries while meeting a 5.2% deficit target and increasing revenue to 15.1% of GDP. Analysts expect new taxes and spending realignments to sustain fiscal stability. Sri Lanka’s economy grew 5% in 2024 after recovering from default. Uditha Jayasinghe, Reuters, February 14
New freight train route links China to Afghanistan via Central Asia. A freight train carrying telecommunications equipment left Chongqing, China, marking the launch of a direct rail route to Afghanistan via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The train, transporting ZTE-produced equipment, is expected to arrive in 12 to 15 days, cutting transit times by up to five days and reducing costs by 15-20%. Chongqing has expanded its logistics network, now connecting over 100 cities across Asia and Europe. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, February 13
NA deputies debate supplements to 2025 socio-economic development plan. Vietnam’s National Assembly discussed key economic policies, including an eight percent GDP growth target for 2025, at its ninth extraordinary session. Lawmakers reviewed investment plans for major infrastructure projects, including the Lao Cai-Hanoi-Hai Phong railway, and debated urban rail expansion in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The session also addressed governance reforms and legal adjustments to boost economic momentum. Vietnam News, February 14
Guarded optimism in India as Trump and Modi outline plans to deepen defense partnership. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to expand defense ties, including potential F-35 fighter jet sales. They pledged deeper military cooperation across air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace while enhancing intelligence sharing. Analysts say India seeks co-production and research partnerships to reduce dependence on Russian arms. The deal is expected to take years to materialize. Aijaz Hussain and Ashok Sharma, AP News, February 14
Japan to release 210,000 tons from rice reserves amid surging prices. The Japanese government will release up to 210,000 tons of stockpiled rice to counter record-high prices caused by increased demand and supply shortages. Farm Minister Taku Eto said the move aims to stabilize distribution, with rice expected to reach shelves by April. The price surge follows poor harvests, rising tourism-driven consumption, and consumer hoarding after earthquake warnings. Kyodo News, February 14
Second charter amendment session collapses. Thailand’s joint parliamentary session on charter amendments failed for a second consecutive day due to a lack of quorum, with MPs and senators absent over concerns about a potential Constitutional Court violation. Pheu Thai lawmakers denied accusations of stalling, arguing they seek legal clarity before proceeding. The session aimed to establish a Constitutional Drafting Assembly, but political divisions and legal uncertainties continue to stall progress. Aekarach Sattaburuth and Mongkol Bangprapa, Bangkok Post, February 14
PH to China: We never promised Typhon removal. The Philippines denied committing to remove the U.S. Typhon missile system, rejecting China's claim that its deployment was temporary. National Security Council spokesperson Jonathan Malaya called Beijing’s remarks deceptive, citing China’s own military activities. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stated the missiles would only be withdrawn if China ceases its claims in the West Philippine Sea. Chinese officials warned the deployment risks escalating tensions. Nestor Corrales, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 14
Quiet clash over Afghanistan may presage more U.S.-China tensions at the United Nations. The U.S. and China are locked in a dispute over who should lead UN resolutions on Afghanistan, with Beijing pushing for a greater role in shaping policy. The disagreement highlights China’s growing ambitions in multilateral institutions, as it seeks influence over Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth and regional stability. The U.S. has resisted ceding control, leading to stalled negotiations in the Security Council. Mark Magnier, South China Morning Post, February 14
Task force on Taiwan-US ties needed, legislator says. Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Chiu Chih-wei called for a dedicated task force to manage Taiwan’s relationship with the U.S., warning that traditional “values diplomacy” is insufficient under President Donald Trump. He urged regular government-to-government communication and proposed sending a special envoy to Washington. Lawmakers also debated Taiwan’s defense spending, with opposition figures questioning the feasibility of raising it to 3% of GDP. Chen Cheng-yu, Liu Wan-lin and Esme Yeh, Taipei Times, February 15
China willing to deepen mutual political trust with Cook Islands, premier says. Chinese Premier Li Qiang reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to strengthening ties with the Cook Islands during a meeting with Prime Minister Mark Brown. Discussions focused on expanding cooperation in marine infrastructure, cultural exchanges, and economic projects. Brown’s visit, the first by a Cook Islands leader in a decade, has drawn concern from New Zealand, which maintains a special political relationship with the island nation. Xiuhao Chen and Ryan Woo, Reuters, February 14
Nearly 6 out of 10 support Yoon's impeachment over martial law declaration: poll. A Gallup survey found that 57% of South Koreans support impeaching President Yoon Suk Yeol over his martial law declaration, while 38% oppose it. The Constitutional Court’s trust rating fell to 52%, with growing skepticism among conservatives. If the court upholds Yoon’s impeachment, a snap election must be held within 60 days. The poll surveyed 1,004 adults and has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points. Yi Wonju, Yonhap News Agency, February 14
Myanmar junta suspends migrant worker departures to Thailand. Myanmar’s junta has temporarily halted the departure of migrant workers to Thailand, citing unspecified reasons, according to employment agencies. The suspension, issued verbally by the Ministry of Labor, has caused confusion among job seekers and recruiters. The regime has also restricted travel for men aged 18 to 35 due to potential conscription. Employers in Singapore and Thailand have begun seeking alternative labor sources. Hein Htoo Zan and Yu Phyu Han, The Irrawaddy, February 14
Taiwan pledges to communicate and invest more in the US after Trump tariff threats. President Lai Ching-te vowed to boost engagement with the U.S. and increase American investments following President Donald Trump’s order for reciprocal tariffs. Lai emphasized Taiwan’s role in the global semiconductor supply chain and proposed a new partnership initiative to strengthen industry ties. He also announced plans for a special budget to raise defense spending above 3% of GDP amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. AP News, AP News, February 14
U.S. Intelligence Community needs upgrade to stop Beijing forcibly taking Taiwan: report. A report by the Atlantic Council calls for a major overhaul of U.S. intelligence operations to deter a potential Chinese military move on Taiwan. Authored by retired Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, it proposes integrating real-time intelligence across all domains using AI and advanced technologies. The report warns that China has learned from Russia’s mistakes in Ukraine and may use cyber and hybrid warfare tactics. Enoch Wong, South China Morning Post, February 14
U.S. Space Force to beef up Japan unit amid growing threat in region. The U.S. Space Force will expand its unit at Yokota Air Base over the next two years to counter threats from China, Russia, and North Korea. Lt. Gen. David Miller emphasized the need for stronger space surveillance, missile tracking, and defense coordination with Japan. The expansion follows Japan’s deployment of a U.S. space domain awareness sensor and increased trilateral security efforts with South Korea. Shohei Hidema, Kyodo News, February 14
First Kyrgyz-British Strategic Dialogue meeting held in London. Kyrgyz Deputy Foreign Minister Meder Abakirov and UK Minister Stephen Doughty co-chaired the inaugural Kyrgyz-British Strategic Dialogue in London. Talks focused on trade, investment, education, and climate initiatives. The UK pledged support for Kyrgyzstan’s critical minerals strategy, while bilateral trade reached £144 million in 2024, a 73.5% increase. The UK also approved a £1.8 billion soft loan for development projects. Sergey Kwan, The Times of Central Asia, February 14
BRICS expansion and Japan’s latent leadership in a torn Indo-Pacific. Four ASEAN nations—Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand—have applied for BRICS membership, diverging from past trends. Interpretations of this move vary; some view it as a move away from the Western-led order and others consider it a strategic hedging tactic. However, these perspectives often overlook the limited choices ASEAN faces between Western institutions and BRICS. A Japan-led coalition could offer a viable third option, reinforcing the rules-based international system without forcing countries to align with either China or the United States. Bryan Tan Jia Yang, East Asia Forum, February 15
Turning Japan's nuclear challenges into opportunities. In 2025, Japan marks the 80th anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings while facing diplomatic tensions over the release of treated Fukushima wastewater. Despite IAEA assurances of safety, import bans from China and Hong Kong have hurt Japan’s seafood exports. However, China’s independent testing in early 2025 found no abnormalities. Japan has an opportunity to leverage this anniversary to rebuild trust, promote nuclear safety, and strengthen regional cooperation. Japan could position itself as a leader in nuclear safety and disaster preparedness. Its expertise in managing natural disasters, showcased through initiatives like the Japan–World Bank Program, could benefit East Asia as extreme weather events intensify. Encouraging international delegations to visit Fukushima would reinforce transparency and counter misinformation. Domestically, Japan faces divided public opinion on nuclear energy, with concerns lingering since the Fukushima disaster despite rising support following the Ukraine crisis. As regional energy security becomes a growing concern, Japan’s role in nuclear risk management and sustainable energy development is increasingly relevant. Neville Lai, East Asia Forum, February 14.
Steel Tariffs Undercut US Strategic Competition in EVs and AI Infrastructure. President Donald Trump has reinstated 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, removing previous exemptions for countries like South Korea. This policy aims to protect domestic industries but may hinder the U.S.'s competitiveness in sectors such as electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The U.S. faces a shortage of electrical steel, essential for EV engines and power grid transformers, with only a few global producers capable of meeting the required precision and purity standards. South Korean steelmakers have specialized in producing these high-performance materials. Without domestic investment to develop similar capabilities, these tariffs could disrupt supply chains, increase production costs, and impede progress in critical industries, potentially benefiting international competitors. Tom Ramage, Korea Economic Institute of America, February 14
Southeast Asia Responds to Trump Tariffs. The Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on China and other trading partners is prompting Southeast Asian nations to seek alternative trade alliances and could potentially increase China's influence in the region. While some countries may benefit from increased exports to the U.S. as companies diversify supply chains away from China, the overall uncertainty in global trade policies is leading these nations to consider strengthening economic ties with China. This reflects concerns over the stability of U.S. trade relations and the desire to maintain economic growth amid rising protectionism. Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations, February 14
U.S.-India Summit: A Productive Trip and a Busy Year Ahead. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Washington, D.C., marks a advancement in U.S.-India relations. During his meeting with President Donald Trump on February 13, both leaders agreed to initiate negotiations for a bilateral trade initiative (BTI), aiming to conclude its first phase by the end of the year. In defense, commitments were made to increase equipment sales, joint exercises, and to relax U.S. export controls, potentially including fifth-generation fighter aircraft and undersea systems. The discussions also focused on improving military interoperability and sustaining overseas deployments in the Indo-Pacific region. This summit shows a deepening strategic partnership, driven by shared economic interests and mutual concerns over regional security dynamics. Richard M. Rossow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 14
North Korea Leaving Maneuvering Room with the US While Preparing for Long-Term Confrontation. North Korea's recent actions indicate a dual strategy: maintaining the possibility for diplomatic engagement with the United States while preparing for prolonged confrontation. Following the re-election of President Donald Trump, Pyongyang has shown signs of flexibility, including a softened anti-U.S. rhetoric and the omission of derogatory terms in official statements. Despite these gestures, North Korea continues to improve its nuclear capabilities, as evidenced by Kim Jong Un's visits to nuclear facilities in late 2024 and early 2025. This suggests that while North Korea is open to dialogue, it remains committed to strengthening its defense posture in anticipation of sustained tensions with the U.S. Rachel Minyoung Lee, 38 North, February 14
North Korea's Lethal Aid to Russia: Current State and Outlook. Since October 2023, North Korea has bolstered Russia's military operations in Ukraine by supplying substantial quantities of artillery shells and other munitions. Estimates indicate that by October 2024, North Korea had shipped approximately 20,000 containers to Russia, potentially equating to around 9.4 million 152 mm shells. These munitions, though often of poor quality, have been critical in sustaining Russia's artillery capabilities. In addition to ammunition, North Korea has provided military personnel, with reports of up to 12,000 troops deployed to support Russian forces. This collaboration is further solidified by a comprehensive defense treaty ratified in late 2024, committing both nations to mutual military assistance. In exchange for its support, North Korea has received over one million barrels of oil from Russia, circumventing international sanctions. Tianran Xu, 38 North, February 14
Sanakham Dam Sparks Fear and Anguish Along the Thai-Lao Border. The Sanakham hydroelectric dam project, planned by Laos near the Thai border in Chiang Khan District, has raised concerns among local Thai communities and environmentalists. Scheduled to generate 684 MW of power at an estimated cost of $2.07 billion, the dam is expected to impact three Thai provinces along the Mekong River. Residents fear adverse effects on ecology, fisheries, and increased flooding. Despite warnings from the Thai Human Rights Commission, the Thai government's Office of the National Water Resources has proceeded with the Mekong River Commission's consultation process. Critics argue that the process lacks transparency and fails to adequately address the potential transboundary impacts on Thai livelihoods and tourism sites. The project is part of Laos' broader strategy to position itself as the "battery of the region" by exporting electricity, primarily to Thailand, though questions remain about the necessity and environmental cost of such developments. Tom Fawthrop, The Diplomat, February 14
Indonesia Is on the Verge of Natural Gas Dilemma. Indonesia is confronting a critical imbalance between escalating natural gas consumption and declining domestic production. In 2023, natural gas constituted 16.28% of the nation's energy mix, trailing only coal and oil. The government's commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060 has led to a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants and a move toward renewable energy and gas-fired power generation. Projections indicate that by 2034, 21% of an additional 71 GW in electricity capacity will be gas-based, equating to a 15 GW increase. However, domestic gas production has been on a downward trajectory, with output decreasing from 82.7 billion cubic meters in 2011 to 59.3 billion cubic meters in 2021. This decline is attributed to aging fields and a lack of new investments in exploration. Consequently, Indonesia faces the prospect of becoming a net gas importer, which could have adverse economic implications and complicate its energy transition goals. To address this dilemma, experts advocate for policy reforms to attract foreign investment, the development of alternative energy sources, and the enhancement of energy efficiency measures. Rafi Adis Subarna, The Diplomat, February 14
Trump 2.0 and the US-Philippines Alliance: Consistency and Change. The re-election of President Donald Trump is anticipated to reinforce the US-Philippines alliance, particularly in countering China's regional influence. The Philippines values the familiarity of engaging with a known administration and notes that many of Trump's cabinet nominees hold a firm stance on China. However, Trump's transactional approach may prompt discussions on defense burden-sharing and necessitate increased joint military activities, such as the Balikatan and Kamandag exercises. Additionally, the US is expected to encourage greater European Union involvement in regional security, aligning with its anti-China position. High-level exchanges and support for Philippine positions, including the 2016 Arbitration Award on the South China Sea, are projected to continue. The alliance aims to modernize through deeper institutional engagement and increased military cooperation, with a focus on deterring China's assertiveness in the region. Julio S. Amador III, Fulcrum, February 14