Asia Daily: February 11, 2025
Ex-interior minister denies trying to cut off power, water to media outlets after martial law declaration. Former Interior Minister Lee Sang-min testified that he never ordered utilities to be cut to critical media outlets following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration. While acknowledging seeing a note referencing such measures on Yoon’s desk, Lee insisted he lacked authority to issue such orders. The trial, determining whether Yoon’s impeachment will be upheld, is nearing its final stages. Kim Seung-yeon and Lee Haye-ah, Yonhap News Agency, February 11
NBI files criminal case vs VP Duterte for threatening Marcos. The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) has filed a criminal case against Vice President Sara Duterte for allegedly threatening to have President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos, and House Speaker Martin Romualdez killed. The case stems from statements she made during a live-streamed press conference. Duterte denied the allegations through a letter but did not appear before the NBI. Tetch Torres-Tupas, Philippine Daily Inquirer, February 12
Russia offers India its most advanced Su-57 stealth fighter jet. Russia has proposed manufacturing its Su-57 stealth fighter jet in India, aiming to strengthen defense ties amid Western sanctions. The offer, made during the Aero India exhibition, includes full technology transfer and potential integration with India's Su-30 production line. India, seeking to bolster its shrinking fighter fleet, has yet to respond. Shivam Patel and Abhijith Ganapavaram, Reuters, February 11
Visit to China by Ishiba from early May under consideration as ties warm. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is considering visiting China as early as May to strengthen diplomatic ties with President Xi Jinping. The visit follows his recent meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, where both reaffirmed security commitments. While Ishiba seeks to build trust with Beijing, some within Japan’s ruling party worry China aims to drive a wedge between Tokyo and Washington. Trade issues, including China’s ban on Japanese fishery imports, may also be discussed. The Japan Times, February 11
National Assembly convenes 9th extraordinary session. Vietnam’s 15th National Assembly opened its 9th extraordinary session in Hanoi to review key legislative, economic, and infrastructure issues. Lawmakers will discuss amendments to governance laws, state apparatus restructuring, and economic policies, including a GDP growth target of at least 8%. The agenda also includes investment policies for railway projects and urban development initiatives in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam News, February 11
South Korea’s top think tank lowers economic growth projection, citing Trump’s tariffs. The Korea Development Institute cut its 2025 growth forecast to 1.6%, down 0.4 percentage points, citing economic uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Recent tariff hikes, including 25% duties on steel and aluminum, have heightened concerns, especially with potential levies on semiconductors. Political instability following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment further clouds economic prospects. Kim Tong-hyung, AP News, February 11
China and the chocolate factory: investment in Ivory Coast helps secure a cocoa edge. China has completed Ivory Coast’s largest cocoa processing plant in Abidjan, part of a $199.9 million investment to strengthen its role in the global cocoa trade. The deal ensures 40% of processed cocoa will be sold to Chinese firms. With rising cocoa prices and supply constraints, China aims to secure resources while expanding influence in West Africa. Jevans Nyabiage, South China Morning Post, February 11
Uzbekistan launches eco-friendly program to reward green lifestyles. Uzbekistan has introduced the "One Million Green Families" initiative to promote sustainable living as part of its "Uzbekistan 2030" strategy. The program encourages eco-friendly habits, such as reducing waste and using green transportation, with incentives like discounts on public services and lower loan rates. A digital platform will track participation, and top-performing families may win electric cars. Sadokat Jalolova, The Times of Central Asia, February 11
No referendum for charter rewrite bills: Wan. Thai Parliament President Wan Muhamad Noor Matha defended his decision to put constitutional amendment bills on the agenda without a prior referendum, arguing it avoids unnecessary spending if parliament rejects them. The debate is set for Thursday and Friday, though some lawmakers may seek a Constitutional Court ruling on the referendum requirement. The proposals, backed by ruling and opposition parties, require Senate approval and could trigger legal challenges. Aekarach Sattaburuth, Bangkok Post, February 11.
Taiwan signs US$761 million deal for U.S. NASAMS defence package. Taiwan has finalized a $761 million agreement with the U.S. for three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) to strengthen air defense in Taipei and New Taipei City. The deal, initially approved under Joe Biden, marks the first arms contract signed under Donald Trump’s presidency. The NASAMS will replace Taiwan’s aging Hawk missile system and enhance protection against aerial threats, including drones and cruise missiles. Lawrence Chung, South China Morning Post, February 11
N. Korea sent 200 long-range artillery pieces to Russia; additional supply likely: Seoul. North Korea has provided Russia with 200 long-range artillery pieces and around 11,000 troops to support its war in Ukraine, according to South Korea’s defense ministry. The report suggests Pyongyang may continue supplying weapons and personnel while seeking Russian technological support for advanced military projects, including nuclear-powered submarines and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Lee Minji, Yonhap News Agency, February 11
Japan, U.S. eye defense chiefs' meeting in Japan in late March. Japan and the U.S. are planning a late March meeting between Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to reinforce military cooperation. Talks will focus on regional security challenges posed by China, defense budget increases, and enhanced military coordination. They may also visit Iwoto Island for a memorial event. The Mainichi, February 11
Laos, United Kingdom strengthen green ties at climate event. The British Embassy in Laos hosted a climate-focused event on January 30, bringing together officials, experts, and business leaders to discuss sustainability. The UK outlined plans to support Laos in climate finance, clean technology, and equitable energy transition, emphasizing green transport and urban planning. The gathering marked the 70th anniversary of UK-Laos diplomatic relations, reinforcing collaboration on environmental resilience and economic growth. Phontham Visapra, The Laotian Times, February 11
Kachin rebels seize tank base from Myanmar junta. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and allied forces have captured Tank Battalion 5014 in Bhamo after days of intense fighting. The junta has withdrawn to the 21 Military Operations Command, where clashes continue. Resistance forces have fully encircled Bhamo, forcing the military to rely on airlifts for supplies. The KIA previously seized an armored battalion and several vehicles in January. The Irrawaddy, February 11
How Can China Boost Consumption? China's investment-led growth model has reached its limits, making household consumption the key driver of the country's long-term economic trajectory. To increase consumption, Beijing has several reform options, though they vary in financial and political viability. Potential strategies include increasing household income through fiscal transfers, promoting wage growth, and broadening channels for property income. Additionally, improving the quality and accessibility of service consumption and expanding consumer goods trade-in schemes could stimulate spending. However, these measures face challenges such as financial constraints and political considerations, which may impact their implementation and effectiveness. Logan Wright, Camille Boullenois, Charles Austin Jordan, Endeavour Tian, and Rogan Quinn, Rhodium Group, February 10
China Builds Space Alliances in Africa as Trump Cuts Foreign Aid. China is expanding its space presence in Africa, strengthening partnerships through satellite donations, space monitoring facilities, and partnerships with 23 nations. In Egypt, a satellite assembly facility in Cairo, largely funded and staffed by China, is part of a broader push to improve Beijing’s surveillance capabilities and influence. While publicly framed as aiding African space development, China retains access to collected data and maintains personnel in these facilities. In 2023, China launched three satellites for Egypt, including one capable of military-grade surveillance. Beijing has also established ground stations in Ethiopia and plans another in Namibia, further integrating African space infrastructure into its global network. The initiative extends to cooperation on a future moon base with Egypt, South Africa, and Senegal. Meanwhile, the U.S. is scaling back international aid, focusing instead on military space dominance. The Pentagon warns of security risks, arguing China’s growing satellite network could aid military operations and intelligence gathering. However, African nations, historically neglected in space development, see Beijing’s support as an opportunity to build local expertise. Despite U.S. concerns, China’s strategy is reshaping Africa’s role in the global space race, offering technology and investment where Washington has been largely absent. Joey Roulette, Eduardo Baptista, Sarah El Safty, and Joe Brock, Reuters, February 11
Taiwan 2025. In 2025, the Taiwan issue is under intense scrutiny due to differing perspectives within the U.S. administration and debates in China. The appointment of Darren Beattie as Undersecretary of State for Public Diplomacy introduces a viewpoint that Taiwan's integration with China is inevitable, suggesting the U.S. should negotiate concessions from China in other regions. This contrasts with Secretary of State Marco Rubio's firm stance against China's actions toward Taiwan. Concurrently, Chinese discussions weigh the merits of peaceful reunification versus the use of force, with many advocating for peaceful methods while acknowledging military options remain available. These internal debates in both nations add complexity to the Taiwan situation in 2025. Juan Zhang, U.S.-China Perception Monitor, February 11
China, Taiwan, and the PLA’s 2027 Milestones. China’s military advancements are accelerating as the 2027 milestone—coinciding with the PLA’s centennial and Xi Jinping’s likely fourth term—approaches. Initially perceived as an “invasion deadline,” U.S. officials now assess it as the point when China achieves full combat readiness for potential action against Taiwan. Recent intelligence highlights rapid PLA modernization, including the near-tripling of precision-strike missiles since 2020, the unveiling of next-generation stealth aircraft, and expanded military infrastructure near Taiwan. Western analysts have also identified new mobile bridge vessels that could enable large-scale amphibious operations. China is improving its space-based capabilities and constructing a large underground command center in Beijing. Despite these developments, the PLA still faces challenges, such as joint-force coordination and large-scale mobilization exercises. The extent of China’s military readiness by 2027 remains uncertain, but its growing ability to project power raises concerns about escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait. John Culver, Lowy Institute, February 11
A “National Interest Analysis” Would Strengthen PNG’s Foreign Policymaking. Papua New Guinea’s foreign policy lacks a structured framework, often influenced by external forces and dominant political figures rather than a clear national strategy. Implementing a National Interest Analysis (NIA), as practiced in Australia and New Zealand, could improve transparency and accountability in PNG’s treaty-making process. An NIA would require agencies to assess and document the alignment of international agreements with PNG’s national priorities before ratification, ensuring coherence with development plans, security policies, and economic goals. Currently, PNG’s fragmented bureaucracy operates in silos, leading to missed opportunities and controversial agreements, such as its entry into Australia’s National Rugby League—seen as more aligned with Australian geopolitical interests than PNG’s development agenda. Critics argue that NIAs slow decision-making, but they provide institutional memory and safeguard sovereignty by fostering informed public discourse. Mandating NIAs in PNG’s legislative process would strengthen inter-agency coordination and enable citizens to hold leaders accountable, making sure that foreign engagements reflect national priorities rather than external agendas. Patrick Kaiku and Molly Kola, Lowy Institute, February 11
Advancing Sustainable Public Procurement in the Asia Pacific. Sustainable public procurement (SPP) is a key strategy for aligning economic growth with environmental and social objectives, particularly in the Asia Pacific, where infrastructure demand is soaring. Public procurement accounts for up to 20% of global GDP and contributes to emissions, making green procurement essential for mitigating climate change. Policies promoting resource efficiency, circular economy principles, and environmentally friendly materials can reduce embodied carbon by up to 40% and improve sustainability across sectors like construction and transport. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China have established robust SPP frameworks with mandatory green purchasing requirements, while others, including Vietnam and Thailand, are developing strategic roadmaps. Despite progress, challenges such as fragmented governance, voluntary regulations, and non-tariff trade barriers hinder widespread adoption. Governments must implement binding environmental criteria, improve policymaker expertise, and integrate nature-based solutions to enhance climate resilience. Strengthening SPP can drive economic growth, create green jobs, and build more sustainable, disaster-resilient infrastructure across the region. James Correia, Jenny Yan Yee Chu, and Sheena Kanon Leong, East Asia Forum, February 12
New Leaders Face Old Problems in Solomon Islands. Solomon Islands’ political landscape remains turbulent as Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, who replaced Manasseh Sogavare in 2024, survived a no-confidence motion in December. The 2024 election saw high turnover, with the ruling OUR Party winning the most seats but falling short of a majority, leading to complex coalition negotiations. Economic challenges persist, with logging revenues declining and efforts to pass a new Mineral Resources Bill failing. Corruption remains a key issue, with widespread concerns over government transparency. Manele’s leadership has reinforced ties with China, reflecting his role in the 2019 diplomatic change and 2022 security pact. However, women's political representation remains low, with only 6% of parliamentary seats held by women. Looking ahead, the 2025 Pacific Islands Forum in Honiara will be a major event, likely to focus on climate change and geopolitical tensions over Taiwan. Despite surviving early political challenges, Manele’s government faces continued pressure amid economic and governance struggles. Kerryn Baker, East Asia Forum, February 11
Thailand's Ongoing Struggle for Democratic Stability. Thailand’s political landscape in 2024 saw the consolidation of entrenched power structures, as the conservative establishment reinforced control through legal and institutional mechanisms. The Move Forward Party (MFP), which won the 2023 election on a reformist platform, was ultimately dissolved, and its leaders banned for attempting to amend the lese-majeste law. The Pheu Thai-led government, formed through a controversial alliance with military-aligned parties, faced instability when Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was removed in August through constitutional provisions that allow vague ethical charges to unseat officeholders. Meanwhile, Thaksin Shinawatra, a dominant figure in Thai politics, remains vulnerable to legal challenges under laws weaponized by conservative elites and nationalist groups. Despite the replacement of the junta-appointed Senate, the new selection process ensured continued dominance by royalist factions, maintaining influence over judicial appointments and constitutional matters. The military and monarchy remain central to the political system, using non-coup methods to neutralize opposition. As Thailand enters 2025, these power struggles indicate that true democratic reform remains distant, with conservative forces firmly dictating the limits of political change. Greg Raymond, East Asia Forum, February 11
Hope and Fear on the Kyrgyz-Tajik Border. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are nearing the resolution of their prolonged border dispute, a legacy of Soviet-era demarcations that neglected local settlement patterns, leading to mutual enclaves and shared resource challenges. Both nations assert substantial agreement on the border's delineation, though specifics remain undisclosed. Locals express a mix of optimism and apprehension; while some hope for stability and economic development, others fear potential displacement and loss of access to essential resources. The path to finalizing the agreement involves multiple procedural steps, including intergovernmental and parliamentary approvals, with demarcation efforts expected to extend over the next one to two years. The outcome of these negotiations will impact the daily lives of residents in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia's most fertile and densely populated region. Joe Luc Barnes and Alibek Mukambaev, The Diplomat, February 11.
Will Malaysia’s New Social Media Licence Shield Users or Curb Freedom? On January 1, 2025, Malaysia enacted a social media licensing framework requiring platforms with over eight million users to obtain an Applications Service Provider Class Licence. The government asserts this move aims to mitigate harmful online content and improve user privacy. However, concerns have been raised about potential government overreach, especially regarding increased fines and vague definitions of prohibited content. Critics fear these measures could suppress free expression and lead to over-censorship by platforms. Compliance among major platforms has been mixed, with some securing licenses and others expressing reservations about the framework's clarity and impact on innovation. The success of this initiative hinges on balancing user safety with the protection of freedom of expression. Nuurrianti Jalli, FULCRUM, February 12.
Philippines Offshore Gambling Operators (POGOs): Off-putting. The high-profile case involving former Bamban mayor Alice Guo has exposed issues related to Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs). Initially promoted under President Duterte to boost revenue and employment, POGOs have become associated with illegal activities, including human trafficking, kidnapping, and money laundering. A March 2024 raid on Zun Yuan Technology Inc., a POGO hub near Bamban, led to the arrest of 800 employees, showing regulatory failures and corruption. Investigations revealed Guo's connections to the operation through Baofu Land Development Inc., the real estate company leasing the property to ZYTI. These developments have prompted calls to reassess the POGO industry's role in the Philippines. Teresita Ang See, Fulcrum, February 10
Predicting the Next 'DeepSeek Event': Early Indicators of Capability Within the PRC’s AI Ecosystem. DeepSeek, an artificial intelligence firm backed by the hedge fund High-Flyer Quant, has rapidly emerged as a disruptive innovator in China's AI landscape. Key indicators of its success include government recognition, proximity to top-tier national research institutions, and a complex network of corporate affiliates with proven technological expertise. Notably, DeepSeek's Beijing branch was named a main drafting unit for a national data security standards plan in 2023, and its affiliate, High-Flyer Technology, received national "high-tech enterprise" status in 2020 and 2023. Despite being headquartered in Hangzhou, DeepSeek has established a large presence in Beijing, fueling speculation about state support. These developments, along with external validations of its growing capabilities, marked DeepSeek as a sophisticated innovator prior to the release of its R1 open-source model. Matthew Johnson, The Jamestown Foundation, February 11